What is especially fun is watching the SEC dominate the rankings while fans from the other conferences whine. This document shows a visualization of how the various conferences are doing with respect to rankings.
[This is very much a work in progress]
I've calculated t-statistics and standard deviations (not present in this writeup), but a raw monthly difference is sufficient to show that something changed radically in May 2015 and Baltimore now has a new and horrible 'normal'.
It is also common to read calls for Major League Baseball to introduce a salary cap to make the game "more competitive." This is to give smaller market teams an even playing field against larger market teams such as the New York Yankees.
But, does success in baseball cluster more than in the other major sports?
Using the 2016 presidential election to illustrate how correlations matter when building statistical models.
One way to think of this is that I am playing my own custom Pokémon Go game.
2010: | Ariane 5 launches: 6; Falcon launches: 2 (both test flights) |
2011: | Ariane 5 launches: 6; Falcon launches: 0 |
At the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. Elon Musk
announces intent to build a reusable rocket :
The private spaceflight firm SpaceX will try to build the world's first completely reusable rocket and spaceship, a space travel method that could open the gates of Mars for humanity, the company's milionaire CEO Elon Musk announced Thursday (Sept. 29). |
|
2012: | Ariane 5 launches: 7; Falcon launches: 2 (1 test; 1 CRS mission) |
SpaceX is reported to begin testing a rocket landing system 'soon':
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) will begin testing on a vertical propulsion landing system later this year, part of a long-term project to evaluate the potential of creating a fully-reusable version of their Falcon 9 launch vehicle. |
|
2013: | Ariane 5 launches: 4; Falcon launches: 3 |
SpaceX tests landing a Falcon-9 1st stage for the first
time with flight 6. It fails to land, though the test was
considered an engineering success for what was accomplished. |
|
2014: | Ariane 5 launches: 6; Falcon launches: 6 |
SpaceX makes three more attempts to land a Falcon-9 1st stage (flights
9, 10 and 13). |
|
ESA settles on a design for the Ariane 6 rocket and announces
funding. Ariane 6 will not be reusable:
ESA governments plan to spend nearly 8.2 billion euros ($10.2 billion) over 10 years on launch-related programs. Slightly more than half of this will go to developing the new Ariane 6, to be operational in 2020. The rocket will feature either two or four solid-rocket strap-on boosters, depending on the mission. |
|
2015: | Ariane 5 launches: 6; Falcon launches: 7 |
SpaceX makes another three more unsuccessful attempts to land a
Falcon-9 1st stage (flights 14, 15 and 17). Flight 20 successfully
lands a Falcon-9 1st stage. |
|
Stephane Israel, head of Arianespace, explains that reusable
rockets have a poor business case:
Speaking recently to Flightglobal in Singapore, Stéphane Israël, who heads European launch operator Arianespace, which conducts Ariane 5 operations, said: "The question of reusability is not a question of technology, as we all think it is possible to have a reusable launcher. It is a problem of the business case." |
|
2016: | Ariane 5 launches: 7; Falcon launches: 8 |
SpaceX successfully lands five more Falcon-9 1st stages and fails
three times. |
|
2017: | Ariane 5 launches: 6; Falcon launches: 18 |
After two more successful 1st stage landings, SpaceX successfully
reuses a Falcon-9 1st stage for the first time (flight 32). 1st stage
landing is successful. |
|
Stephane Israel estimates that a 1st stage booster would need
to fly 50 times a year to save 10% - 20% in costs:
All these extra costs add up, making how many times a company can fly the same rocket a critical factor. According to a 2014 CNES estimate, a completely reusable first stage booster would have to fly 50 times a year to cut costs by 10 to 20 percent. Chief Executive Stephane Israel of competing aerospace company Arianespace has floated 35-40 launches as the magic number, but SpaceX has yet to state a minimum profitable target. |
|
Stephane Israel opines that rocket reusability may make less sense
for Europe than for America:
Having said that, some of our competitors are going in this direction, especially in the United States. The benefits of reusability are neither black and white nor copy and paste: reusability costs a lot when you consider the loss of performance, as well as the expense of refurbishments. And nobody knows how reliable a reused rocket will be. Moreover, for overall economic benefits, it is key to launch as many times as possible, to compensate for the loss of manufacturing cadence. So, it may not bring the same advantages in Europe than in the U.S., where you have a huge institutional market with many guaranteed launches to deliver. Taking all these parameters together, we clearly made the decision not to wait for mastering reusable technologies before introducing a new product to the market. |
|
Stephane Israel reiterates Europe's assessment that 35 - 40 lauches
per year will be needed for a reusable rocket to make economic sense.
There is concern that if SpaceX can refurbish inexpensively enough
then SpaceX will be a danger to Arianespace's international rocket business:
Israel said European assessments of reusability have concluded that, to reap the full cost benefits, a partially reusable rocket would need to launch 35-40 times per year to maintain a sizable production facility while introducing reused hardware into the manifest. |
|
2018: | Ariane 5 launches: 6; Falcon launches: 21 (including 1 Falcon-Heavy) |
Alain Charmeau, CEO of Ariane Group, explains that Ariane rockets do not
launch often enough to justify reusability:
Charmeau said the Ariane rocket does not launch often enough to justify the investment into reusability. (It would need about 30 launches a year to justify these costs, he said). And then Charmeau said something telling about why reusability doesn't make sense to a government-backed rocket company—jobs. |
|
2019: | Ariane 5 launches: 4; Falcon launches: 13 |
SpaceX begins launching operational Starlink satellites. |
|
2020: | Ariane 5 launches: 3; Falcon launches: 26 |
Elon Musk tweets that SpaceX breaks even after two flights with the
same booster and is ahead on costs after three flights.![]() |
|
Jan Woerner, head of ESA, explains that Ariane 6 is not reusable because
it wouldn't launch often enough to justify being reusable:
The relatively limited number of European launches is also why Europe did not opt for a reusable rocket in 2014, according to Mr Wörner. If there were, for example 10 launches a year, he said, the industrial system might only need to produce one launcher a year for European needs. That would render the production business unviable, he said. |
|
2021: | Ariane 5 launches: 3; Falcon launches: 31 |
2022: | Ariane 5 launches: 3; Falcon launches: 61 (1 Falcon-Heavy) |
2023: | Ariane 5 launches: 2; Falcon launches: 96 (5 Falcon-Heavy) |
2024: | Ariane 6 launches: 1 (test); Falcon launches: 134 (2 Falcon-Heavy) |
France's Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire explains that ten launches
a year are not enough to justify a reusable rocket:
The idea of copying SpaceX and making Ariane partly reusable was considered and rejected. |
Year | Revenue | Earnings | |
---|---|---|---|
(billions) | |||
2024: | $66.5 | -$10.7 | Door Plug falls out of 737 |
2023: | $77.8 | -$0.8 | |
2022: | $66.6 | -$3.5 | |
2021: | $62.3 | -$2.9 | |
2020: | $58.2 | -$12.8 | |
2019: | $76.6 | -$2.0 | 2nd 737-Max MCAS crash |
2018: | $101.1 | $8.9 | 1st 737-Max MCAS crash |
2017: | $94.0 | $10.6 | First Commercial 737-Max Flight |
2016: | $94.6 | $5.4 | |
2015: | $96.1 | $7.4 | (2015 Annual Report) |
2014: | $90.8 | $8.9 | |
2013: | $86.6 | $7.9 | |
2012: | $81.7 | $7.2 | |
2011: | $68.7 | $6.3 | First Commercial 787 Flight |
2010: | $64.3 | $3.3 | (2010 Annual Report) |
2009: | $68.3 | $1.3 | |
2008: | $60.9 | $2.7 | |
2007: | $66.4 | $4.1 | |
2006: | $61.5 | $2.3 | (2010 Annual Report) |
2005: | $54.8 | $2.6 | (2005 Annual Report) |
2004: | $52.5 | $1.9 | |
2003: | $50.3 | $0.7 | (2005 Annual Report) |
2002: | $54.0 | $2.3 | (2002 Annual Report) |
2001: | $58.2 | $2.8 | (2002 Annual Report) |
2000: | $51.3 | $2.1 | (2002 Annual Report) |
1999: | $58.0 | $2.3 | (2002 Annual Report) |
1998: | $56.2 | $1.1 | (2002 Annual Report) |
1997: | $45.8 | -$0.2 | Merged with McDonnell-Douglas |
1996: | $35.5 | $1.8 | (2000 Annual Report) |
1995: | $19.5 | $0.4 | First Commercial 777 Flight |
1994: | $21.9 | $0.9 | |
1993: | $25.4 | $1.2 | |
1992: | $30.2 | $1.6 | |
1991: | $29.3 | $1.6 |
The instability in earnings leading up to the McDonnell-Douglas merger helps to explain why Boeing senior management wanted a more McDonnell approach to running the business. The earning from 1991 - 1996 ranged from $0.4 billion to $1.8 billion. The earnings from 1998 - 2003 (which included the dot-com bust and the air travel dropoff after 9/11) ranged from $0.7 billion to $2.8 billion, which was similarly volatile though with a more obvious external cause.
Earnings took a noticeable jump upon introduction of the 787 and another upon introduction of the 737-Max. Earnings became record losses after the 737-Max MCAS system flew two airplanes into the ground.
Booz Allen is committed to solving our clients' toughest challenges. We work with a diverse base of public- and private-sector clients across a wide swath of industries in the U.S. and internationally.Underlining added by me.
:Our federal clients include substantially all of the cabinet-level departments of the U.S. government. We serve commercial clients across all industries, including some of the largest organizations in critical infrastructure sectors like financial services, energy, healthcare, and manufacturing, and we have a thriving cadre of international clients in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
And yet, 97% of Booz Allen's revenue comes from the US Government.
From the
Fiscal Year Ended March 31, | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
U.S. government : | ||||||
Defense Clients | $ 4,210,430 | 45% | $ 3,950,751 | 47% | $ 3,920,498 | 49% |
Intelligence Clients | 1,693,942 | 18% | 1,578,939 | 19% | 1,549,422 | 20% |
Civil Clients | 3,124,889 | 34% | 2,617,730 | 31% | 2,183,184 | 28% |
Total U.S. government | 9,029,261 | 97% | 8,147,420 | 97% | 7,653,104 | 97% |
Global Commercial Clients | 229,650 | 3% | 216,280 | 3% | 205,834 | 3% |
Total Revenue | $ 9,258,911 | 100% | $ 8,363,700 | 100% | $ 7,858,938 | 100% |
Some people think that this ugly mostrosity looks more like a Soviet bomb shelter than a civic building in a historical city or that it's a bombastic piece of urban renewal from the late 1960s, it's not attractive or it hurts the eyes just walking by it. While a certain set of others they have a more optimistic view and think that building is a notable achievement in the uses of monumentality in humanity or one of America's foremost landmarks arguable the great building of 20th century Boston.The two building are:
Opinions about the brutalist Boston City Hall are divided to say the least. On the one side you have people with critical thinking skills and working eyesight. On the other you have Architects. They notoriously wear glasses and they hold all sorts of ridiculous contrarian opinons that just flies in the face of common sense.
—How Brutalist Buildings Trick You With Concrete
Old City Hall | New City Hall |
---|---|
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![]() |
One obvious difference between the two is that the old one was surrounded by boring green plants while the new one is surrounded by humanistic, life-affirming bricks and cement.
Harvard Launches New Intro Math Course to Address Pandemic Learning LossI can't find a syllabus so I don't know what this actually covers. A 'lack of foundational algebra skills' sounds worrying for Harvard freshmen.
The Harvard Math Department will pilot a new introductory course aimed at rectifying a lack of foundational algebra skills among students, according to Harvard's Director of Introductory Math Brendan A. Kelly.
The course, titled Math MA5, will run alongside two established math courses — Math MA and MB — with an expanded five-day schedule.
—https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2024/9/3/new-math-intro-course/
As of March 1, 2025, 23.1% (95% Confidence Interval: 22.4% ─ 23.8%) of adults reported having received the 2024─25 COVID-19 vaccine.From the same site:
— https://www.cdc.gov/covidvaxview/weekly-dashboard/index.html
As of March 1, 2025, 45.8% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 44.8 - 46.8) of adults received a flu vaccination, similar to last season at this same time point (46.3%).Americans seem much less interested in Covid shots than in Flu shots.
— https://www.cdc.gov/fluvaxview/dashboard/index.html
"Amazon forest felled to build road for climate summit"
—https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9vy191rgn1o
The two stars making up the binary system are quite similar to our sun:
- Zeta 1 Reticuli is a G3 type star with a mass of about 96%
of our Sun and a radius about 92% of our Sun.
- Zeta 2 Reticuli is a G2 type star (same as our Sun!) with a mass 99% of our Sun and a radius about 99% of our Sun.
But they are near enough to each other that one could imagine a journey from one to the other with, say, year 2200 or year 2300 Earth technology. And hypothetical astronomers from one system could have pretty good observations of the other (again, assuming year 2200 or year 2300 Earth technology). A hypothetical civilization might be more motivated to explore the other system because it might be practical with a much lower level of technology than would be necessary for Earth to explore the Centauri system (about 277,000 AUs).

Our son loved both history and comics. When I pointed it out to her, she smiled whistfully and noted, "Too late."
January 2024 | February 2025 |
---|---|
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Despite a 4.42 GPA at Palo Alto's Gunn High School and a near-perfect 1590 on the SAT, Stanley Zhong was rejected last year by 16 colleges from Stanford and MIT to the not so elite University of California at Santa Barbara.Underlining added by me. 'Not so elite'.
The complete list of the colleges he applied to is:
- MIT (#2 overall US News and World Report rankings)
- Stanford (#4)
- Caltech (#6)
- Cornell (#11)
- UCLA (#15)
- UC Berkeley (#17)
- Carnegie Mellon (#21)
- University of Michigan (#21)
- UC San Diego (#29)
- University of Texas (#30; accepted to)
- Georgia Tech (#33)
- UC Davis (#33)
- University of Illinois (#33)
- UC Santa Barbara (#39)
- University of Wisconsin (#39)
- University of Maryland (#44; accepted to)
- University of Washington (#46)
- Cal Poly San Luis Obispo
Calling out UCSB as 'not so elite'? Really? This was necessary?
French philosopher Michel Foucault introduced the concept of the "disciplinary space" in his work dedicated to the surveillance techniques. Four main types of the "disciplinary spaces" can be indentified: school, hospital, army and prison. Within a disciplinary space, a person faces certain restrictions on freedom and ability to manage one's own time and location, as well as external surveillance and control. This concerns not just the isolated individuals with abnormal behavior, but everybody.One interesting aspect of homeschooling is that home schooled children can grow up with no concious experience of any of these locations. These children are often born in hospitals but don't really remember that.
Does this matter? I dunno. An interesting perspective, maybe.

As of the beginning of 2025, approximately $20 billion has been spent and the new final estimated cost is between $90 billion and $130 billion. A 119 mile segment connecting Madera (halfway between Merced and Fresno) with Wasco (just north of Bakersfield) is expected to be completed in 2025. The rest of the 171 segment from Modesto to Bakersfield is supposed to be completed by 2030 - 2033.
At the current rate of progress, a completion date of no earlier than 2050 for San Francisco to Los Angeles seems reasonable.
Part of the HSR's economic problem is that round trip flights from SFO/SJC to the Los Angeles area can be found for $200 or less (so $100 each way). Even taking TSA into account, the flight time will be comparable to the 2 hour 40 minute promised travel time for the rail. In both cases one will need to rent a car (or use Uber or Lyft) once one arrives.
But self-driving cars make the HSR from San Francisco to Los Angeles make even less sense.
Mercedes offers Level 3 autonomy (driver need not pay attention) driving TODAY. Not everywhere and not under all driving conditions, but a Mercedes with Drive Pilot can drive itself from San Francisco to Los Angeles today! The (hoped for by 2050) HSR route map and the Mercedes Drive Pilot California certified roads map are:
2050 High Speed Rail Route Map | 2025 Drive Pilot Certified Roads |
---|---|
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Drive Pilot has some limitations, the primary one today being that the car won't drive faster than 40 MPH when in Drive Pilot mode. But the same technology was approved for 95 km/h (~60 MPH) on the entire German autobahn in late 2024. It is reasonable to expect it to be available in California at 60 MPH soon. 75 MPH by 2030 seems conservative.
And this technology won't be limited to Mercedes cars. General Motors is still improving Cruise technologies for use in GM cars, Waymo continues to expand its coverage map for full (level 4 autonomy) self-driving cars, and other competitors exist.
The Waymo driverless car coverage map in the San Francisco Bay Area is expected to look like this soon (possibly before the end of 2025:

If someone can let their car drive them from San Francisco to Los Angeles (SFO to LAX is 380 miles driving via I-5 according to Google maps) in the 6:30 estimated by Google Maps or they can take a train that takes 2:40 plus driving to the station and getting there early (so maybe four hours total) the car is looking pretty attractive. It looks even more attractive if several people are going together (a family, a few co-workers on a business trip ...) and when you realize with the car you can leave when you want to rather than when the train is scheduled to depart. And with Drive Pilot you have a car when you arrive.
By 2050 Californians will have had 15 - 20 years experience with self-driving cars making long trips much more pleasant. And this is what HSR will be competing with.
I do not see how HSR, in 2050, can
be competitive against alternatives I expect by 2030.

Of the major browsers, Apple's Safari stands out because Safari places the open and close buttons far from each other, which minimizes clicking errors, while the other browsers place the open and close buttons near each other:
Google Chrome:

Microsoft Edge:

Mozilla Firefox:

Also, the Brave browser:

And Apple's Safari:

Notice how the open and close buttons are much further away from each other on Safari than on the other browsers.
There are tradeoffs. The Safari layout is actually slightly less "logical" than the layout of the other browsers because of the location of the search/address bar (not shown in these screen clips). The cost of this logicallness, however, is a more error prone user interface.

Consider the various layers of insanity and irrelevance.
- Reporting that Caitlin Clark watched a football game with Taylor Swift.
- That Skip Bayless has an opinion about this.
- Yahoo reporting Skip Bayless' opinion about this.
- Me pointing and laughing at the reporting of Skip Bayless' opinion...
Here is a nice example. The register receipt paper at Walmart can kill you:

This is because excellent food costs more than average/mediocre/typical food and the economics of an all you can eat buffet do not permit the buffet to charge more for the excellent food.
This seems obvious for restaurants, but also applies to other 'all you can eat' products. The obvious one being Netflix.
When a traditional TV series becomes very popular (e.g. Friends, 1994 - 2004) the actors tend to want more money. With traditional TV this was a problem with a solution: Raise the advertising rates (which the advertisers would be willing to pay because they would reach a larger audience) and use some of that money to pay the actors (and some to pay the director and some to pay the script writers...)
In short, a very successful traditional TV show would generate substantially more revenue for the network than a less successful TV show. This incentivized the networks to aim for very successful shows.
Netflix doesn't get 2× as much revenue from a show with 2× the viewership, however. Netflix is incentivized to produce 'acceptable' shows that people watch, but don't necessarily love. Aiming for acceptable rather than great keeps the budgets lower and since larger budgets don't generate more revenue there is a disincentive to aim for (expensive) excellence.
Sigh.

China | 32.2% |
USA | 11.3% |
Japan | 9.6% |
India | 6.3% |
South Korea | 4.5% |
Germany | 4.4% |
Mexico | 4.3% |
Spain | 2.6% |
Brazil | 2.5% |
Thailand | 2.0% |
Canada | 1.7% |
France | 1.6% |
Turkey | 1.6% |
Czechia | 1.5% |
Indonesia | 1.5% |
Slovakia | 1.2% |
UK | 1.1% |
Italy | 0.9% |
Malaysia | 0.8% |
Russia | 0.8% |
Argentina | 0.7% |
South Africa | 0.7% |
Poland | 0.7% |
Morocco | 0.6% |
Romania | 0.6% |
Hungary | 0.5% |
Uzbekistan | 0.5% |
Belgium | 0.4% |
Portugal | 0.3% |
Image Source:
Data Source (from image source): https://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2023-statistics/
No surprise — people are staying at individual jobs for shorter times (on average) than 40 years ago.
But the statistic usually quoted is something like 'average years at each job': Take the number of jobs a person has had, divide by the number of years worked and there you go!
I don't like this because it makes the case whereby someone working at a single job for 45 years (average time at a job of 45 years) and a person working at one job for 41 years and then four jobs for 1 years each (average time at a job of 9 years) seem much more different than they actually are. Or at least much more different in the sense that I care about.
What I want works out to be the average if all job tenures for an individual are of the same length:
Years at each job | Average |
---|---|
40 | 40 |
20, 20 | 20 |
13⅓, 13⅓, 13⅓ | 13⅓ |
10, 10, 10, 10 | 10 |
... but the way one would naively compute an average breaks down when the job tenures are different from each other. To illustrate:
Consider a career with two jobs, one of 38 years and one of 2 years.The "average" for this is 20 years ... 2 jobs totaling 40 years.
But this is NOT the number I want. I want this (or at least something close to this):
38*38/40 + 2*2/40 = 36.1 + 0.1 = 36.2Which is this:
(382 + 22)/40 = 36.1 + 0.1 = 36.2The general form for the result I want is this:
(Y12 + Y22 + Y32 + ...)/TotalYearsThis weighting has at least one nice property — adding a job where one works zero years doesn't change the 'typical job duration' statistic (where an arithmetic mean would see a change).
And this looks a lot like the variance except that variance measures *spread* and I want a sort of average.
In fact, my "average" seems to almost be the opposite of a geometric mean!
Does this calculation have a name?
It does!
This is the 'Contraharmonic Mean'
Now that I know what it is, I feel that it should be used more often.

Cigarette vending machines are still a thing, too! They can legally be placed in locations where only those 21 and older can be present (e.g. bars).

Redbox, however, has gone to its ancestors.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/british-hedge-fund-founder-jailed-151125340.html
The British Hedge Fund founder is named Sanjay Shah.
And ... "The trader has been held in custody since he was extradited to Denmark from Dubai a year ago."
So ... to sum up:
A British Hedge Fund founder named Sanjay Shah moved to Dubai to commit fraud against the Danish government.
And now he is in legal trouble.

"Supermicro Finds No Evidence of Fraud; Will Replace CFO"If fraud had been found, would the CFO have kept his job?

$1,000,000,000 dollar / $33,000 dollars/kg = 30,300 ounces ~= 940 kg
Because ounces and kgs are the same. Except when they aren't.


test on Instagram writes this:
Joe Rogan is like some barbarian Khan from the steppes that took an interest in intellectual things and his show is basically him bringing slightly nervous scholars and magicians to come before him to explain how the world works "glasses man, you explain to Joe why sky big and trees grow" but he will also believe almost anything you tell him, and only recently (in the past few years) does he clap back like "Tiny hat man say otherwise, do you lie to Joe? Tiny hat man say fat not bad for you, that sugar is enemy, so which is truth? Joe thinks you are wrong" and people just nervously go "oh-oh ok h-Haha yah I guess so"Joe agrees:
"Joe spend many moons on horseback and training with bow and sword, but joe also wonder why skyfire rise from mountains every morning, you will explain this to Joe."
The most accurate description of my podcast I've ever read.

Jaguar worldwide auto sales look like this:

Jaguar wasn't running this ad in 2018. Jaguar worldwide auto sales in 2024 seem to be 33,320, down 25% from 2023.
Michigan lands No. 1 national football recruit after reportedly offering $10M NIL deal"reportedly"
The Univ. of Michigan has a commitment from the No.1 football recruit in the nation in Belleville High School (Mich.) QB Bryce Underwood, who "reportedly had an NIL offer upwards of" $10M over four years, according to David Goricki of the DETROIT NEWS.
https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2024/11/22/michigan-bryce-underwood-nil-deal
It plays classic rock.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion
I tripped over these in a video on South Africa's nuclear weapons program. The video has this amazing bit:
Then in 1971, arguing that it would be beneficial for the mining industry, South Africa began a research program on PNEs -- peaceful nuclear explostions. It was THIS program which eventually morphed into a nuclear weapons program.Because there would be no way that a "peaceful" nuclear explosion could be used as a weapon. The history of dynamite clearly shows this :-)
And a mean person wrote this about the game:
The coaching staff has no interest in backup-backup Trey Lance, but because Rush was so blah they put the former third overall pick in the game late in the third quarter. For two plays. He played most of the fourth quarter, at which time the afternoon felt like a preseason game, and Lance SQUEEZED IN AN INTERCEPTION.Lance was 4/6, 21 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception.
Cooper Rush was 13/23 for 45 yards, 0 TDs and 0 ints.
I'm starting to think that Trey Lance may not be an NFL level QB (even as a backup ...)
Before leaving the US, the couple made the decision to hold onto their rent-controlled apartment, which Joanna had lived in for over 40 years, in San Francisco, just in case things didn't go to plan.And I'm thinking that a rent-controlled apartment that is unoccupied probably misses the whole point to rent control ...
“You've got to have a plan B,” she says. “What if this doesn't work out? I mean, we could never afford to buy back into California, because it's really expensive.”
... which is odd since Tik Tok *is* Chinese :-)
It's name is Douyin ... and it is also owned by Byte Dance, the owners of Tik Tok.
This feels like "the American Microsoft" ...

There is even a YouTube video compilation of NFL and college players dropping the ball before actually getting the ball into the end zone.
You can see it here (sorting by% %AAV of cap):
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/player/_/year/2024/position/qb/sort/contract_average_league_cap_pct
Starts with:
- 24.5%
- 23.5%
- ...
- 16.7%
- 16.7%
- 13.0%
- 11.1%
- 4.9% (Gardner Minshew, non-rookie contract)
- 4.8% (Zach Wilson, last year of rookie contract)
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/player/_/year/2024/position/wr/sort/contract_average_league_cap_pct
The guys scored as Left Tackles kinda have a cliff, but it is less pronounced than for QBs:
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/player/_/year/2024/position/rt/sort/contract_average_league_cap_pct
Look at #s 17 - 20 vs the numbers above and below.
The QBs really do seem to be different from the rest with the Left Tackle's kinda in the middle of the QB vs all-other-positions salary distribution.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/cnn-polling-guru-says-battleground-161239743.html
Since this happened in the 2016 election:
https://mistybeach.com/mark/math/CorrelationsAreReal.html
it is nice to see that some of the pollsters are noticing :-)

Patrick Mahomes finished with a QB Rate of 44.4.
Brock Purdy finished with a QB Rate of 36.7.
Year | WS | Pos | Player | median WS for draft |
---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | -0.4 | 15th | Sekou Doumbouya | 4.0 |
2020 | -0.5 | 7th | Killian Hayes | 3.5 |
2021 | +1.1 | 1st | Cade Cunnigham | 2.1 |
2022 | +0.4 | 5th | Jaden Ivey | 1.0 |
2023 | +1.8 | 5th | Ausar Thompson | 0.2 |
I'm using cumulative Win Shares as my metric for performance. Sekou Doumbouya, for example, has contributed -0.4 Win Shares since he was drafted in 2019 (and is no longer playing in the NBA). The median player drafted in the 2019 draft has contributed 4.0 Win Shares over the same five seasons.
Killian Hayes is currently playing in the G-League.
Note Detroit's average 1st pick was about 7th overall.
Those picks have generated a total of 2.4 Win Shares over the 15 (5+4+3+2+1) player-seasons.
If Detroit has managed to select the median player in each (so the rough average of picks 30 and 31) then they would have players with 10.8 Win Shares over that same time.
It is as if Detroit's first draft pick in each draft is worse than if Detroit had simply selected randomly from the overall top-60 players available in the draft.
- "Cal's upset win over No.8 Miami caps chaotic day in college football", and
- "Cam Ward lead No. 8 Miami to a thrilling 25-point comeback"

"Bird flu is spreading rapidly in California; infected herds double over weekend"Bird flu.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/09/bird-flu-is-spreading-rapidly-in-california-infected-herds-double-over-weekend/
Infected herds.
I see.
Trey Lance | Brock Purdy | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season | Team | GP | GS | Comp | Att | YDS | TDs | Ints | Team | GP | GS | Comp | Att | YDS | TDs | Ints |
2023 | Cowboys (NFL) | 49ers (NFL) | 19 | 19 | 374 | 552 | 5,054 | 34 | 12 | |||||||
2022 | 49ers (NFL) | 2 | 2 | 15 | 31 | 194 | 0 | 1 | 49ers (NFL) | 12 | 8 | 155 | 233 | 1,943 | 16 | 4 |
2021 | 49ers (NFL) | 6 | 2 | 41 | 71 | 603 | 5 | 2 | Iowa (FBS) | 13 | 13 | 292 | 407 | 3,188 | 19 | 8 |
2020 | ND State (FCS) | 1 | 1 | 15 | 30 | 149 | 2 | 1 | Iowa (FBS) | 12 | 12 | 243 | 365 | 2,750 | 19 | 9 |
2019 | ND State (FCS) | 16 | 16 | 192 | 287 | 2,786 | 28 | 0 | Iowa (FBS) | 13 | 13 | 312 | 475 | 3,982 | 27 | 9 |
2018 | ND State (FCS) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | Iowa (FBS) | 10 | 8 | 146 | 220 | 2,250 | 16 | 7 |
2017 | Marshall HS | 8 | 46 | 88 | 893 | 8 | 1 | Perry HS | 14 | 237 | 364 | 4,405 | 57 | 9 | ||
2016 | Marshall HS | 1 | 7 | 9 | 132 | 2 | 0 | Perry HS | 10 | 197 | 306 | 3,333 | 42 | 11 | ||
2015 | (Did not make varsity team) | Perry HS | 11 | 93 | 158 | 1,194 | 8 | 0 | ||||||||
non-NFL | 28 | 17 | 261 | 415 | 3,974 | 40 | 2 | 83 | 70+ | 1,520 | 2,295 | 21,102 | 188 | 53 |
The point here isn't that Purdy is/was better than Trey in college. The point is that Purdy's high school and college career/stats are so much more extensive. Purdy started as varsity QB for his high school team for at least two seasons, then started for (Power 5) Iowa for 3½ seasons. He had played in 83 games, starting most of them, between high school and college. A broad summary is that the NFL had about 5× as much data on Brock Purdy as it had on Trey Lance:
- 70+ games started vs 17 (4.1×)
- 2,295 pass attempts vs 406 (5.7×)
- 21,102 yards vs 3,974 (5.3×)
- 188 TDs vs 40 (4.7×)
A related question is why Dallas (Jerry Jones) decided to trade a 4th round draft pick to get Trey Lance and pay him $940,000 for the 2023 season and, presumably $5.3 million for the 2024 season. From the 49ers' viewpoint the reason for the trade wasn't the 4th round draft pick but getting out of paying the $6.2 million over two seasons for Trey. How this makes sense for Dallas is unclear.
The flight is expected to feature the first private spacewalk along with taking the crew more than 800 miles from Earth, the farthest man had been away from Earth since NASA's Apollo missions.
...
The Dragon capsule does not have an airlock, so the spacewalk will happen closer to Earth, 435 miles from the surface.
https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2024/08/24/Polaris-Dawn-Dragon-Crew/9671724339872/
[Interviewer] So you mentioned batteries. We're — we're gonna talk about reiterating that 2 million EV run rate by 2026, I believe, right?In 2023 Ford sold 72,000 all-electric EVs (so not counting hybrids).
Jim Farley: Yes, yes.
Through July of this year Ford has sold a bit more than 50,000 EVs (so is on track for 85,000 - 90,000 for the year).
I don't think that 2 million run rate by 2026 is going to happen.
Early 2025:
Ford sold 285,291 EVs of all types, hybrid, plug-in hybrid and full EV in 2024. This is up 38% from 2023. Almost 98,000 of them were full EV.
According to an assessment provided to Congress last year by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, there were about 180,000 homeless people across the state, making California's homeless population one of the highest in the nation along with New York's, Florida's and Washington's.The article is, technically, correct.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/s-mayhem-craziness-californians-react-gavin-newsoms-order-remove-homel-rcna165401
The homeless numbers reported in the cited assessment for the four mentioned states are:
CA: 181,399 NY: 103,200 FL: 30,756 WA: 28,036And California does have "one of the highest" homeless population's in the nation. Where #1 by an almost 80% margin certainly qualifies as "one of the highest".
But ... given the huge difference between CA (and NY, maybe) and FL and WA it seems disingenuous to just report the stack ranking :-)
AB InBevUnderlining added by me.
9 yrs
Vice President, Bud Light
Full-time Aug 2022 - Nov 2023 · 1 yr 4 mos
New York, United StatesNew York, United States
First woman selected to lead the largest beer brand in the world. I ran Bud Light, a multi-billion dollar business with a 9 figure media budget and a team of 75 people. I conceived of and executed the strategy to redefine our brand positioning, hone creative decisions around media, content, PR, partnerships and build system belief through sales incentives, go-to-market strategy and regional sell-in. When I took over the brand, Bud Light was voted the #1 presentation at SAMCOM, a four thousand person annual sales conference, for the first time in 7 years. Under my leadership, we flipped the slope on the brand's trajectory - Bud Light had the best share trends in Q1 '23 of the past 5 years.
She's a Wharton grad, by the way :-)
28-Jan-2025:
Alissa has updated her LinkedIn profile!
Team Business Operations
LIV Golf
Sep 2024 - Present · 5 mos
LIV Golf
Sep 2024 - Present · 5 mos

The cat IS alive.
...NASA managers want to ensure the spacecraft's problematic control thrusters can help guide the ship's two-person crew home.We have a consensus. Both NASA management *and* the astronauts do not want the astronauts to die attempting to return to Earth!
...
The two astronauts who launched June 5 on the Starliner spacecraft's first crew test flight agree with the managers...
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/starliner-still-doesnt-have-a-return-date-as-nasa-tests-overheating-thrusters/
I wonder if someone should take a poll?
When Jorge Leon invented at the age of 22 a small device that turns Glock pistols into fully automatic weapons, he said he intended it to be used for the good of society ...Reminds me of the Mitchell and Webb skit:
—https://www.yahoo.com/news/feel-terrified-inventor-glock-switch-090429902.html
25-Feb-2025: It seems that Jorge has some good company. Richard Gatling, inventor of the Gatling gun, hoped that his machine gun would reduce deaths in war. From Wikipedia:
In 1877, he wrote, "It occurred to me that if I could invent a machine gun which could by its rapidity of fire, enable one man to do as much battle duty as a hundred, that it would, to a large extent supersede the necessity of large armies, and consequently, exposure to battle and disease would be greatly diminished."
Mostly me, and my friend Jim (who I've known since junior high) were reflecting on the vast improvement in the world of beer in America, and particularly in Knoxville. As late as, oh, 1990 or so, you could go into almost any bar in Knoxville and if you asked what kind of beer they had you'd get an answer like this: "We've got everything! Bud, Bud Light, Miller, Miller Light, Coors, Coors Light — anything you want!"Harkens back to The Blue Brothers (1980):
Elwood: What kind of music do you usually have here?
Claire: Oh, we got both kinds. We got country and western.

The Story Continues!
From 14-Feb-2025:

From 13-Feb-2025:

Brands that have many close substitutes are easier to boycott because there are many similar alternatives that consumers can switch to.The three authors are two associate professors and one assistant professor. They are from Cornell, Northwestern and the Imperial College (London) schools of business so we know these insights are valid.
...
In the case of Bud Light, the presence of many other light beers on the shelf suggests a high degree of substitutability and low switching costs. This is compounded by the brand's lack of taste differentiation from its closest competitors...
—https://hbr.org/2024/03/lessons-from-the-bud-light-boycott-one-year-later
1,600-year-old fragment identified as oldest written account of Jesus Christ's childhood.So the account of Jesus' childhood that is most contemporary would be as if my father had written an account of Shakespeare's childhood ... and it was the most contemporaneous account we had.

It is not this:

Instead, the Apple World Wide Developer Conference seems to have an entire day devoted to the Swift programming language.
The CEO of the development company that was building a 179-unit, $155-million affordable housing development near Redwood City ...$866,000 is about 2× the median US detatched home price.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/worst-disaster-redwood-city-developer-174816733.html
It appears that the PE folks figured out that Red Lobster was worth more if run for cash than as a long term business. It also appears that they were right ... which isn't going to discourage them any.
Red Lobster was owned by Darden Restaurants (which also owns Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse and other chains)
2012: | Red Lobster revenue down, but I can't find by how much |
2013: | Red Lobster revenue drops 6% |
2014: | Red Lobster revenue is down around 8.8% year-over-year Red Lobster sold to Golden Gate Capital Group for $2.1B Real Estate for 500 locations sold for $1.5B to American Realty Capital Properties (VEREIT) Golden Gate Capital Group keeps the $1.5B |
GOLDEN GATE CAPITAL NOW OWNS RED LOBSTER FOR ABOUT $600M. RED LOBSTER IS MUCH LESS A REAL-ESTATE PLAY. | |
2016: | Golden Gate Capital Group sells 25% of Red Lobster to Thai Union for $575 |
GOLDEN GATE CAPITAL GROUP NOW OWNS 75% OF RED LOBSTER AND HAS PAID ABOUT $25M FOR THAT STAKE. | |
2020: | Golden Gate Capital Group sells the remaining 75% ownership stake in Red Lobster to an investment group led by Thai Union. |
GOLDEN GATE CAPITAL MAYBE CLEARS $500M - $1,000M FOR THE REMAINING STAKE IN RED LOBSTER. |
In effect, Golden Gate Capital tied up $600M for two years, then $25M for four years and at the end finished with $500M - $1B more than they started with. This assumes that no additional money was taken out of Red Lobster over the six years ... which may be optimistic.
If the $600M and $25M were financed with, say, 7% bonds (note that in 2014 and 2016 this would be a VERY high interest rate) then they paid out:
2014: | 7% of $600M = | $42M |
2015: | 7% of $600M = | $42M |
2016: | 7% of $25M = | $2M |
2017: | 7% of $25M = | $2M |
2018: | 7% of $25M = | $2M |
2019: | 7% of $25M = | $2M |
Total: | ~$90M |
maybe as much as $90 million to get a return of between 5x and 10x over six years.
Frank Shrontz, 92, Dies; Led Boeing in the Last of Its Golden Years
Known for his leadership and his commitment to company culture, he left as chief executive in 1996, opening the door to a corporate makeover.
Not a problem if the football boosters step up:
Offer enough in NIL deals to ten desirable
players and let the players pay full tuition
and just walk-on to the team.
Yes, this does take booster money and yes the booster money could have been spent on *other* NIL deals to attract players, but the key insight is that for about $70K/player per year the boosters can replace scholarships.
And because NIL is "independent" of the school there really isn't anything that the NCAA can do about this.
Obviously, this only applies to major programs, but those are the ones that get in trouble that matter.
Vacating wins is pretty silly ... everyone knows that the game was played and who won it.
This seems to be heading towards the only thing the NCAA can realistically do to a program is:
- Fine the program A LOT of money, or
- Restrict recruiting activity (visits, etc.), or
- Make the program inelligible for bowl games.
I think NIL has reduced the largest effective NCAA punishment because scholarships are not terribly expensive to replace.

I am sure that the $33 million pay package helps assuage the pain of the rebuke.
How to measure that is kinda unclear, but if we stack rank banks and bank holding companies by market cap then Switzerland has only one in the top-100 world wide.
And that one. UBS, only comes in at #19.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/banks/largest-banks-by-market-cap/
Ranking by assets is similar. Switzerland has one of the top-50, that one is UBS, and the rank is #20.
Is there a different metric I should be examining? One that is available?
18 out of 30 teams have winning records. The best winning record: 64-18 by Boston. The worst winning record: 46-36 (three teams; Miami, Sacramento, Golden State).
One team went 0.500: Houston (41-41)
11 teams had losing records:
- Best losing record: 39-43 by Chicago
- Worst losing record: 14-68 by Detroit
Top Winning Teams | Bottom Losing Teams | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1) | 64-18 | Boston | 30) | 68-14 | Detroit |
2) | 57-25 | OKC | 29) | 67-15 | Washington |
3) | 57-25 | Denver | 28) | 61-21 | Hornets |
4) | 56-26 | T-Wolves | 27) | 61-21 | Portland |
5) | 51-31 | LA Clippers | 26) | 57-25 | Toronto |
6) | 50-32 | Dallas | 25) | 55-27 | Memphis |
7) | 50-32 | Knicks | 24) | 51-31 | Utah |
8) | 49-33 | Phoenix | 23) | 50-32 | Brooklyn |
9) | 49-33 | New Orleans | 22) | 46-36 | Atlanta |
10) | 49-33 | Bucks | 21) | 43-39 | Chicago |

(License Plate Obscured on Purpose)
This was enough fun that I now have a page dedicated to it: Pokemon Go: EV Charging Edition

What annoys me the most about this taxonomy was that my first thought was of a variation of the tale of the three bricklayers (or the janitor ... whichever):
One day in 1671, Christopher Wren observed three bricklayers on a scaffold, one crouched, one half-standing and one standing tall, working very hard and fast. To the first bricklayer, Christopher Wren asked the question, "What are you doing?" to which the bricklayer replied, "I'm a bricklayer. I'm working hard laying bricks to feed my family." The second bricklayer, responded, "I'm a builder. I'm building a wall." But the third brick layer, the most productive of the three and the future leader of the group, when asked the question, "What are you doing?" replied with a gleam in his eye, "I'm a cathedral builder. I'm building a great cathedral to The Almighty."and the janitor version:
In 1962, President John F. Kennedy visited NASA for the first time. During his tour of the facility, he met a janitor who was carrying a broom down the hallway. The President then casually asked the janitor what he did for NASA, and the janitor replied, "I'm helping put a man on the moon."There is ALSO the craftsman aspect that is missing from the table and I think that is my primary complaint, but the idea that you might be trying to accomplish a specific goal at work seems foreign to this HBR author.
"Well, 'forte' is Latin not Greek," I replied.
"Touche."
6-Feb-2024 | United Flight 1539 (Boeing 737-8) from from Nassau to Newark experienced a stuck rudder pedal during landing. |
4-Mar-2024 | United Flight 1118 (Boeing 737-900) from from Houston to Florida returned to Houston and made an emergency landing after one of its engines caught fire midair. An investigation found that bubble wrap had been sucked into the engine. |
7-Mar-2024 | United Flight 35 (Boeing 777-200) from SFO to Osaka diverted to LAX after a tire fell off during takeoff. |
8-Mar-2024 | United Flight 2477 (737 Max 8) from Memphis to Houston had the airplane roll off the runway after landing at George Bush Intercontinental Airport |
8-Mar-2024 | United Flight 821 (Airbus 320) from SFO to Mexico City diverted to LAX because of an leak in the aircraft's hydraulic system. |
11-Mar-2024 | United Flight 830 (Boeing 777-300) from Sydney to SFO returned to Sydney because of a hydrolic issue (initially reported as leaking fuel). |
14-Mar-2024 | United Flight 1816 (Airbus 320) from Dallas Fort Worth to SFO encountered a hydrolic leak as it neared its destination. It landed safely. |
15-Mar-2024 | United Flight 433 (Boeing 737-824) from SFO to Rogue Valley International Medford Airport in Oregon was discovered upon arrival to have has the wing-to-body fairing ripped off during the flight. |
What may be happening is the following:
- In an attempt to increase financial results the airlines (and most
other companies) look for expenses that aren't providing value. Modern
skyscrapers, for example, weigh substantially less per square foot
than the Empire State Building. This weight savings can turn into
cost savings because modern skyscrapers require less materials. This
makes them more affordable.
Example: The Empire State Building has about 2.7 million square feet of office space and weighs about 365,000 tons. World Trade Center Towers 1 & 2 each weighed about 500,000 tons (so about 37% more) but had around 9 million square feet of office space. Each Twin Tower required about 40% of the raw materials to construct per square foot of office space as the Empire State Building.
- The only realistic way to determine if an expense is unnecessary is to
try reducing or eliminating it.
- You discover you went too far when things start to break (e.g. things
start leaking when they should not or things fall off). Sometimes it
is easy to back up (e.g. if a grocery store experiments with thinner
checkout bags it can back up a bit once the bags get thin enough that
they break too much). Other times it is difficult (e.g. once one has
hired a lot of people who are lax about quality it will be difficult
to 'turn on' a culture that values quality).
- The incentives in modern corporations are for management to push the
envelope when trying to cut costs. The benefits (the company has more
money) are tangible and near term. The costs are less obvious and longer
term.
- In addition, the way modern corporate financial incentives work, the bonus for cost savings arrives NOW. If the costs appear far enough in the future then the managers responsible for the problem will be gone and it will be someone else's problem. Even if the decision, on balance and over time costs the company a lot of money, it can still result in bonus checks for the people responsible.
29-Mar-2024 | United Flight 990 (Boeing 777-200) from SFO to Paris diverted to Denver due to engine trouble. |
29-Mar-2024 | United Flight 885 (Boeing 777-200ER) from Rome to Washington experienced a technical issue with one of the engines shortly after takeoff and returned to Rome. |
The basic idea is to look at a rate statistic and a counting statistic for each QB.
The rate statistic will show how well the QB played when he played. Being injured (or suspended or benched) won't hurt a QB's Passer Rating but the QB isn't contributing to team wins while not playing.
The counting statistic is intended to show how much the QB contributed to total wins. A slighly worse QB who plays an entire season will have better counting stats than a slightly better QB who plays only part of a season. The initial counting statistic is "Average Value."
The last seven seasons look like this for a number of QBs.
Passer Rating (Rate Statistic) | AV (Counting Statistic) | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
DeShaun Watson | 103.0 | 103.1 | 98.0 | 112.4 | — | 79.1 | 84.2 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 16 | — | 4 | 4 |
Baker Mayfield | 93.7 | 78.8 | 95.9 | 83.1 | 79.0 | 94.6 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 13 | ||
Kirk Cousins | 93.8 | 99.7 | 107.4 | 105.0 | 103.1 | 92.5 | 103.8 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 7 |
Brock Purdy | 107.3 | 113.0 | 6 | 18 | ||||||||||
Lamar Jackson | 84.5 | 113.3 | 99.3 | 87.0 | 91.1 | 102.7 | 8 | *25 | 18 | 11 | 12 | *19 | ||
Patrick Mahomes | 113.8 | 105.3 | 108.2 | 98.5 | 105.2 | 92.6 | *22 | 17 | 17 | 18 | *19 | 15 | ||
Aaron Rodgers | 97.2 | 97.6 | 95.4 | 121.5 | 111.9 | 91.1 | — | 6 | 13 | 14 | *18 | *15 | 13 | — |
Tom Brady | 102.8 | 97.7 | 88.0 | 102.2 | 102.1 | 90.7 | *20 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 10 | ||
Kyler Murray | 87.4 | 94.3 | 100.6 | 87.2 | 89.4 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 8 | ||||
Jalen Hurts | 77.6 | 87.2 | 101.5 | 89.1 | 4 | 17 | 20 | 18 | ||||||
Dak Prescott | 86.6 | 96.9 | 99.7 | 99.6 | 104.2 | 91.1 | 105.9 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 19 |
Josh Allen | 67.9 | 85.3 | 107.2 | 92.2 | 96.6 | 92.2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 18 | ||
Russell Wilson | 95.4 | 110.9 | 106.3 | 105.1 | 103.1 | 84.4 | 98.0 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
- DeShaun Watson was really good from the very beginning (his Passer Rating
started high and stayed high for his first four years). He played only
about ½ the games his rookie year and provided a lot of value the
next three years when he was the starter. He was benched for a year because
sexual assault allegations. After he was traded he wasn't very effective
(low Passer Rating) and didn't play a lot, contributing to low AV.
- Lamar Jackson is up and down, but awesome when healthy in the regular season.
- Dak Prescott is a great regular season quarterback when not hurt.
I hypothesize that a table of one rate and one counting statistic would be good to understand QB performance and stories. Maybe AV could be replaced by something less complicated such as total yards (passing and rushing)?
In an attempt to understand the arguments (such as they were) I collected the following sets of player stats:
Pete Maravich (LSU)
|
Lynette Woodard (Kansas)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kelsey Plum (Washington)
|
Caitlyn Clark (Iowa)
|
In addition we have:
- John Pierce who played at David Lipscomb (Tenn.) from 1990-94 with 4,230 points, and
- Pearl Moore who played at Francis Marion from 1975-979 with 4,061 points
- John Pierce is generally considered to have the record for most career points in US college basketball (Pete Maravich's freshman points don't count as points in US college basketball games because ... reasons), but David Lipscomb is an NAIA school, though, so this is not an NCAA record.
- Pearl Moore has the record for most career points in US college basketball by a woman. She played at Francis Marion, however, which was in the AIAW when she was playing (and is an NCAA D-2 program now). Francis Marion competed in the Division II (Small College) bracket of the AIAW.
- Lynette Woodard had the college basketball record for career points allowed by a woman at what is now an NCAA D-1 program, but NOT the NCAA D-1 record because Kansas was part of the AIAW when Lynette was playing.
- Pete Maravich had the NCAA D-1 record for most points in a career. He did this while playing only three seasons (because the NCAA did not allow freshmen to play on college 'varsity' teams then; he scored 741 points as a freshman which give him a four season total of 4,408 points). He also did this in only 83 games (out of 84 possible games — Pete missed one game) and in an era that did not have the three point shot. He played in the SEC, though, at a time when SEC basketball programs mostly did not allow blacks on the teams. His father was the head coach and Pete took over 50% of this team's shots (which might have been more difficult to do if his father was not the head coach; Pete shot a bit under 44% from the field).
- Caitlyn Clark has the NCAA D-1 career scoring record. She did this in 130+ games and had the advantage of the three point line. She still has a few more games to play so her points total will increase. But there is no question that she has scored more points playing NCAA D-1 basketball than any other player.
Metric | UK | France |
---|---|---|
Population (2023) | ~68,000,000 | ~65,000,000 |
GDP (Nominal, 2023) | ~$3.3T | ~$3.0T |
GDP (PPP, 2023) | ~$3.9T | ~$3.9T |
Average working hours per week in a main job (2022) | 36.4 | 36.2 |
Gini Coefficient (2020) | 32.6 | 30.7 |
|
I usually think of France as wealthier than the UK, but maybe I shouldn't.
18-Mar-2024:
And possibly why I think of the UK as 'not wealthy':

Per-capita GDP has been flat for almost 20 years (since 2006). But France has seen something similar:

Rust developers fear language is getting too complex and prefer bug fixes to new featuresI think a huge part of this is that folks are much more willing to rev languages than they were in the past.
—Rust developers fear language is getting too complex and prefer bug fixes to new features
I'm thinking that this started with C++ ...
Before this, I think, languages tended to be fairly stable (maybe new version every decade or so ... and often the new version was not large).
2010-???: | Beverly Wyse |
2011-Aug: | Boeing announces 737 MAX |
2015-Jan: | Scott Campbell replaces Beverly Wyse (who becomes vp and gm of Boeing South Carolina) |
2016-Jan: | 737 MAX first flight. |
2018-Aug: | Eric Lindblad replaces Scott Campbell (who early retired at the end of 2018) |
2018-Oct: | Lion Air Flight 610 flies into ground. Eric has been in charge of 737 for two months |
2019-Mar: | Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 flies into the ground. |
2019-Jul: | Mark Jenks replaces Eric Lindblad (who retired) |
2020-Mar: | Walt Odisho replaces Mark Jenks (who moved to overseeing all Boeing commercial programs) |
2021-Mar: | Ed Clark replaces Walt Odisho (retired; then went to Amazon USNS operations) |
2024-Jan: | Door plug falls out of Alaaska Airlines Flight 1282 |
2024-Feb: | Katie Ringgold replaces Ed Clark |
- Beverly Wyse (who oversaw 737 MAX development)
- Scott Campbell (retired)
- Eric Lindblad (in charge for 1 month when the first 737 crashed). He was let go after the 2nd crash caused by the MCAS (developed when Beverly was running the product)
- Mark Jenks
- Walt Odisho
- Ed Clark
- Katie Ringgold
When you take over a project are you supposed to ask about the terrible engineering decisions in the current product that will kill people?
28-Dec-2024:
The book "The Unaccountability Machine" seems like it might be relevant.

Wins | Player |
---|---|
7 | Tom Brady |
4 | Terry Bradshaw |
4 | Joe Montana |
3 | Patrick Mahomes |
3 | Troy Aikman |
The fifth coach is Joe Gibbs, who won his three Super Bowls with three different QBs, none of whom are in the Hall of Fame (and none of whom are particularly close).
I'm thinking that one could make a credible case that Joe Gibbs is the best modern era NFL head coach based on his ability to win without a Hall of Fame QB.
Wins | Coach | Quarterback(s) | |
---|---|---|---|
6 | Bill Belichick | with | Tom Brady |
4 | Chuck Noll | with | Terry Bradshaw |
3 | Bill Walsh | with | Joe Montana |
3 | Andy Reid | with | Patrick Mahomes |
3 | Joe Gibbs | with | Joe Theismann, Doug Williams and Mark Rypien |
In addition, two of Joe Gibbs' Super Bowl wins came against quarterback who eventually went to the Hall of Fame:
- 1982 Season (SB XVII): Joe Theismann vs. David Woodley
- 1987 Season (SB XXII): Doug Williams vs John Elway (HoF 2004)
- 1991 Season (SB XXVI): Mark Rypien vs Jim Kelly (HoF 2002)
Name | Comp % | Yards | TDs | Ints | QB Rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Theismann: | 56.7% | 25,000 | 160 | 138 | 77.4 |
Doug Williams: | 49.5% | 17,000 | 100 | 93 | 69.4 |
Mark Rypien: | 56.1% | 28,500 | 115 | 88 | 78.9 |
- I would have guessed that the poorest city would be somewhere in Cornwall, and
- Nottingham is the hated rival city to Derby and our extended-extended UK family lives in Derby.
The BBC had a 2019 article with this:
Nottingham has been named the UK's "poorest city" on a government list - the fifth time in seven years.
:
According to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Nottingham has the UK's lowest gross disposable household income - or GDHI.
Residents earn, on average, £12,445 a year after tax through jobs or benefits. Only Leicester has finished below Nottingham in recent years, in 2013 and 2014.
Okay, sounds bad. I wonder how other cities stack up.
And I find this list from 2019 (poorest to richest):
- 1) Nottingham
- 2) London ← WTF??????
- 3) Plymouth ← Almost in Cornwall!
- 4) Manchester
- :
- *)Doncaster
- *)Colchester
WASHINGTON (TND) — The Biden administration, in a push to make electric vehicles (EVs) more practical, is offering a tax credit for car chargers to a portion of Martha's Vineyard by classifying it as a 'low-income community.'
Biden admin extends EV charger tax credit to 'low-income' Martha's Vineyard
It is almost as if Boeing looked at the 1980s auto competition between Honda/Toyota and the US Big 3 and decided that the Big 3 were the ones to imitate.
From a recent Barrons article on Boeing:
Boeing has to improve quality, production, profit margins, and repair its reputation. One big step the company could take in addressing all those issues is getting rid of its "shadow factories," where Boeing reworks 737 MAX and 787 jets before final delivery.I wlll note that the last aircraft designed by Boeing before the McDonnell Douglas merger, the 777, was not mentioned as needing rework.
Boeing has talked about its shadow factories several times in the past few months, and their wind down will lower costs and help the company end painful past issues.
The 737 MAX was grounded worldwide from March 2019 to November 2020 following two deadly crashes within five months. Boeing built hundreds of 737 MAX jets and parked them during the grounding. All those jets need to be reworked, upgraded, and checked before final delivery. That happens in a shadow factory.
Rework adds costs. Wednesday, on Boeing's fourth-quarter conference call, Chief Financial Officer Brian West didn't quantify the cost specificity, but CEO Dave Calhoun said, "In our shadow factories, we put more hours into those airplanes than we do to produce it in the first place…that's a metric I know everybody understands."
—Boeing Wants to Close Its 'Shadow Factories.' It Would Be a Positive Step.
- "I'm damp because I am wet."
- "Sharing is Caring is OVER!"
Seth had a toy and did not wish to share.
- "I like toys! I like exotic toys."
According to Seth's parents Missouri seems to have a surprisingly large number of adult stores and not a lot else. Seth and his family were driving through and there's not a lot to look at, so they note the more interesting advertising for him. One barn has XXX on the side, and on top advertises "GIRLS! EXOTIC TOYS!" After reading these out loud, Seth pipes up: "I like toys! I like exotic toys."
"Marley was dead: to begin with."
— A Christmas Carol, by Dickins

Hydee (a five month old kitten) was alive: to begin with. Things may not look like it, but she is alive!
Who would have thought renting scooters to drunk people for a dollar, who would then throw them in a canal on their way home, would be a money losing business?
Except Buffalo?
Team | Narrative |
---|---|
49ers: | Brock Purdy (Mr. Irrelevant). How did everyone miss him? |
Packers: | Jordan Love; 3rd great Packers QB in a row. |
Lions: | Goff career resurrection |
Tampa Bay: | Baker Mayfield career resurrection |
Houston: | CJ Stroud is a ROOKIE QB. Who won the Super Bowl!!!! |
Baltimore: | Lamar Jackson had NO offers in free agency????? |
Chiefs: | 3 Super Bowl wins and 4 appearances in 5 years. Mahomes da man. |
Buffalo: | Josh Allen? Do we have a story? |
After flying from Davos to Zurich on helicopters and boarding the modified Boeing Co. 737, Blinken and his party were informed that the aircraft had been deemed unsafe to fly. An oxygen leak detected previously could not be remedied.I'm still quite unclear about the source of the oxygen leak. Perhaps from the "Emergency oxygen system" with the masks that drop down in case of depressurization?
—Bloomberg: Blinken's Return From Davos Was Delayed After Plane Broke Down
As part of AB InBev's acquisition of the 50% of Grupo Modelo it does not already own, AB InBev has agreed to sell Compania Cervecera de Coahuila, Grupo Modelo's state-of-the-art brewery in Piedras Negras, Mexico, and grant perpetual brand licenses to Constellation for USD 2.9 billion, subject to a post-closing adjustment. This price is based on an assumed 2012 EBITDA of USD 310 million earned from manufacturing and licensing the Modelo brands for sale by the Crown joint venture, with an implied multiple of approximately 9 times. The sale of the brewery, which is located near the Texas border, would ensure independence of supply for Crown and provides Constellation with complete control of the production of the Modelo brands for marketing and distribution in the U.S.This matters because it means that InBev doesn't benefit from US beer drinkers switching from Bud Light to Modelo. Even though InBev owns Modelo outside the USA it gets nothing from US sales of Modelo.
https://www.cbrands.com/blogs/news/anheuser-busch-inbev-and-constellation-brands-announce-revised-agreement-for-complete-divestiture-of-u-s-business-of-grupo-modelo
I don't know how Constellation and InBev keep their beer recipes similar. Maybe they don't.
Workers in the UK in high jobs can earn much more in places like the USA, Canada, Australia and even Asian financial hubs like Singapore, Hong Kong and Shanghai. This is causing a weird situation where the UK has a lot of people migrating to the country from undeveloped economies to find a better life with better opportunities and equally a lot of people moving out of the country to find an even better life with even better opportunities.I have read that the UK (and Ireland) have problems keeping doctors because the pay is so much better elsewhere. And the UK experienced a "brain drain" in the 1970s. It is easy to imagine that the UK is doing this again. But a situation where you import low-skilled workers and lose high-skilled workers who emmigrate out seems like a slow-motion disaster.
The net result of this in and out game is clear, however. The UK brings in more people than it loses for now, but it's losing a lot of highly skilled workers and its been losing more and more every year since 2007. If the trend continues the UK will wind up with a declining population that's missing all its most productive workers.
—The Economy of the UK Is in Serious Trouble @ ~10:30

Our previous cat made it to 19 years old, but not to 2024 :-(
From about ten years ago:


LeBron's son plays for USC and USC is playing the CalState Longbeach 49ers.
Focusing on the SEC, I guess you can say it's been a down year for the conference. Alabama is the only representative in the College Football Playoffs...Yes. Only one SEC team making the four team playoffs makes this a down year for the SEC ...
In addition, the SEC is sending only four teams to the six New Year's Six bowl games.
A down year indeed.
Whether it was because of Washington's stout defensive secondary that showed up at a great time, or the fact that Nix was just trying to force the ball more than normal, the end result was arguably the worst game of the season for No. 10 at the worst possible time.This statement is true. Bo Nix was 21 for 34 (62%) with 3 TDs, 1 interception and 239 yeards.
This works out to a QB Rating of 144.0 ... which is the lowest QB rating for a game this season for Bo Nix.
So, yes, this was the "worst game of the season" for him, but ... man!
He isn't the only QB having a bad season, but ... man.
With the 2023-24 season over we can look at Mac's performance a bit more.
Mac was selected 15th in the 1st round of the 2021 NFL draft. He has now played three seasons in the NFL and his Quarterback Rating has dropped each of his last two seasons: 92.5, 84.8, 77.0.
This game, against the New York Giants, was the last game he played for the 2023-24 season. Mac went 12 of 21 with 89 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions to get the QB Rating of 27.8.
His performance collapse may not be his fault. In the 2021-22 season he played well with Josh McDaniels as the offensive coordinator. After the season McDaniels left to become the Raiders' head coach (and he lasted two season before being fired).
For the 2022-23 season the Patriots had Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as co-offensive coordinators — a job neither had done before.
After the season Patricia went to the Eagles and Joe Judge was moved to assistant head coach.
2023-2024 saw Bill O'brien hired to be the offensive coordinator and things did not improve. Bill is now the head coach of Boston College.
So Mac has seen four offensive coordinators in three seasons and will have yet another new one next season (whichever team he plays for).

Presumably the $3.99 copy of Enquiry by Dick Francis is the hardback version and the $2.99 is paperback.
While full details of the finalized deals are still emerging, they set 25% compounded raises over the 4½-year agreements, including an 11% increase upon ratification; reinstatement of cost-of-living adjustments; increased 401(k) company contributions; and enhanced profit-sharing bonuses.So, a 4.5 year agreement that increases total costs to:
:
Deutsche Bank recently estimated the overall cost increase of the agreement at Ford to be $6.2 billion over the term of the agreement, $7.2 billion at GM, and $6.4 billion at Stellantis.
Ford said the UAW deal, if ratified by members, is going to add $850 to $900 in costs per vehicle assembled.
—Winners and losers of the UAW talks with GM, Ford and Stellantis
- Ford of $6.2B works out to ~$1.4B/year
- GM of ~$1.6B/year
- Chrysler/Fiat of ~$1.4B/year
- Ford: sold 2.3M cars and trucks in 2022 in the USA
- GM: sold 2.27M cars and trucks in 2022 in the USA
I'll note a few things:
- The $/car increase does not line up with the cars sold
combined with cost over the contract for any of the auto makers.
- The VAST majority of the cost to manufacture a new
car does not go to the UAW workers. I think my rough
numbers for Ford are that the 'cost of good sold' included
around 4.5% UAW salary+benefits before the strike. Maybe
it is now 6%. The numbers above support my belief that
UAW salary+benefits aren't even close to the biggest cost.
- An extra $1.5B - $2B per year in costs isn't nothing, but
is not huge given the auto maker's recent profits. It is also
not obviously unreasonable given that inflation has almost certainly
moved UAW salary *down* in real terms over the past few years.
- I'd love to know why the other ~95% of costs to make a car
are considered so tough to move down. If I was trying to
save $1B I don't know that I'd look at the salaries of folks
making up only %4.5% - 6% of the costs.
Of course, maybe looking at these costs is what the big-3 have historically done and the result was small cuts in quality that added up?
Or, most likely, they are always looking at all cost inputs.
Or the auto CEOs are posturing.
- Inflation,
- Current percent of the cost of a car as UAW pay+benefits, and
- Big-3 profits.
The breadth of the [Michigan Football Sign Stealing] scheme appears to be massive. Stalions purchased tickets to games at 12 of 13 Big Ten schools for a total of 30 games, according to Monday report from ESPN.So ... one Big10 team's signs weren't worth stealing. The obvious candidate is Northwestern (because Northwestern is terrible) but in 2020 Northwestern finished the season ranked #10.
—Sources: TCU knew of Michigan's sign-stealing scheme prior to CFP game, used 'dummy signals' to dupe Wolverines
We are looking for a team that is *consistently* terrible, not just terrible on average.
The team that Michigan skipped should have been either Rutgers or ... Nebraska.
One can be voted a "Player of the Year" before a single game has been played.
WTF?????
https://s3.amazonaws.com/big12sports.com/documents/2023/7/5/2023_Big_12_Preseason_Team.pdf
London to Birmingham for $130B is a good guess for now ... by 2029.
The winning seasons are as follows:
- 1997: 92-70; Won the World Series!
- 2003: 91-71; Won the World Series again!
- 2004: 83-79
- 2005: 83-79
- 2008: 84-78
- 2009: 87-75
- 2020: 31-29; made (16 team) playoffs ...
- 2023: 84-78; made playoffs!
Because Miami is that dysfunctional :-)
29-Jan-2025:
The Marlins went 62-100 in 2024. The new GM and President of Baseball operations is Peter Bendix.
Next is Washington with 160 (though Washington has only played five games and Denver has played six).
The 49ers have given up 68 points through five games and lead the league in fewest points allowed per game.
Clearly Denver's problem is Russell Wilson :-)
07-Mar-2024:
Well, the season ended and Denver chose to cut Russell Wilson. They owe him about $89 million (and this shows up for salary cap purposes over the next two seasons), but save the $37 million that they would have also owed him if he were still on the team as of March 17.
Russ finished the 2023 NFL season with the 8th highest passer rating (98.0) of all qualifying QBs. This is in line with his 101.8 passer rating for the 10 years he was at Seattle. Denver's new head coach just wants another QB.
- 97.1: Tony Romo (career)
- 97.3: Dak Prescott (career to date)
- 93.0: Tony Romo
- 92.3: Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott is Tony Romo!
I *also* believe that this may be correlated to the rise of MBAs as a degree:
- 1970: ~29,000/year granted in the USA
- 2011: ~184,000/year granted in the USA
Ever since researchers sequenced the chimp genome in 2005, they have known that humans share about 99% of our DNA with chimpanzees, making them our closest living relatives.And from 23AndMe:
—Bonobos Join Chimps as Closest Human Relatives
'Parent / Child' 50% [DNA Shared] (but 47.5% for father-son relationships)So most people are more closely related to random chimpanzees than they are to their own parents. Or something.
This is feeling a bit like when we conserve momentum in Newtonian physics problems ("yes", for colliding balls; "no" for shooting cannon balls into the air).
Sucks for him and for Denver, but at least he is playing well!
VERY interesting, however, is that Russ's *season* QB Rating is higher than *either* of the QB Ratings from the two games that contribute to the season QB rating:
Game | Comp % | Yards | TDs | Ints | QB Rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 10 vs Raiders | 79.4 % | 177 | 2 | 0 | 108.0 |
Sep 17 vs Washington | 56.2 % | 308 | 3 | 1 | 107.3 |
2023 Season Total | 68.2 % | 485 | 5 | 1 | 108.5 |
I find this to be a very interesting property of the stat.
- There are 48,500 UAW workers at GM (round up to 50,000)
- 2,000 work hours/year
- 100,000,000 work hour/year/worker
GM net profits for the past few years seem to be:
- 2022: $9.7B
- 2021: $9.9B
- 2020: $6.3B
- 2019: $6.7B
- 2018: $8.1B
So I'm seeing something like an extra $2B/year for GM.
The auto manufacturers are making noises that the union demands would push per hour all-in labor costs from $60/hour to $150/hour. So they are ... just making bald faced lies? This is plausible. Alternately I've missed something.
Obviously things get worse for the car makers if there is an additional 25% pay increase on top of that to go from a 40 hour to a 32 hour work week, but I'm still not seeing an extra $90/hour for the 100 million hours worked...
Brandon was drafted in the 6th round by Jacksonville in 2016. His career looks like this:
2016: | Jaguars | $574,274 | did not play (as nearly as I can tell) |
2017: 2018: | Rams | $728,118 | did not play (technically 3 seasons for Rams) |
2019: | Broncos | $766,938 | played in three games; QB rating 68.3 (this is bad) |
2020: 2021: 2022: | Bengals | $3,607,074 | played in 12 games over 3 years, QB rating 82.5 |
And he is likely to be the 49ers #3 QB once the final cuts are announced. If not, he'll likely be on the practice squad with a chance to be called up.
I really wonder what the teams see in him that they don't see in maybe 50 other QBs that look pretty similar.
9-Feb-2025:
Well, Brandon made the 2023 and 2024 49ers rosters and made $1,232,500 and $2,020,000 for those two years. His passer rating for those two years was 60.3.
How do you properly account for carbon offsets in the form of uncut trees when those trees burn to the ground in a forest fire? Are you still virtuous? Are you owed a refund???
So far he has produced as follows:
- 2020: 2.2 WAR (52 games; Covid shortened season)
- 2021: 0.0 WAR (58 games)
- 2022: 0.9 WAR (47 games)
- 2023: 0.1 WAR (43 games so far)
For 2024 Rendon played in 57 games and provided 0.6 WAR. So now 3.7 WAR (after accounting for rounding) for $175 million.
He has been consistently injured since the second year after he signed his contract with the Angels. He has played in 205 out of 648 games (32%) from 2021 - 2024.
Wagner pointed out that Bud Light sales at his store since mid-April plunged 45% from a year ago. The decline can be attributed to the EVOLVING PREFERENCES OF CONSUMERS.As with Spinal Tap, the consumers are becoming more selective ... and Wagner *almost* said so ... Almost.
— https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/just-stopped-buying-bud-light-162116088.html
Who, it seems, recently announced a baby? Or maybe a pregnant girlfriend or wife?
In any event, this pissed off a certain OTHER lady who thought (?) she was Zion's main interest.
So ... the video refers to lady #2 as a:
D-list adult film star
Ouch.
To discover an American's true opinion of his own country, ask him what he thinks of France.I think I could attribute this to Mencken or Twain and everyone would find it plausible.
Company | Market Cap | |
---|---|---|
Chip Companies | ||
Nvidia | $ 1,070B | USA |
Broadcom | $ 347B | USA |
Samsung Electronics | $ 333B | Korea |
AMD | $ 180B | USA |
Texas Instruments | $ 155B | USA |
Intel | $ 134B | USA |
Qualcomm | $ 129B | USA |
Analog | $ 93B | USA |
Micron | $ 72B | USA |
Infineon | $ 53B | Europe |
NXP | $ 51B | USA |
ST Micro | $ 43B | Europe |
Fabs | ||
TSMC | $ 532B | Taiwan |
GlobalFoundries | $ 36B | USA |
UMC | $ 21B | Taiwan |
Equipment Vendors | ||
ASML | $ 282B | Europe |
Applied Materials | $ 116B | USA |
Lam | $ 83B | USA |
Tokyo Electron | $ 65B | Japan |
KLA | $ 64B | USA |
- Samsung's fab business is included in Samsung Microelectronics.
- For those who remember when Intel dominated the chip space, Intel's market cap position is surprising.
- For those who remember the 1980s when Japan was a major semiconductor player the lack of Japanese companies is surprising.
- If not for ASML (and maybe privately held ARM), Europe wouldn't matter at all.
Day | Little Mermaid | Aladdin |
---|---|---|
1 | $38,149,001 | $31,358,935 |
2 | $68,268,528 | $61,372,230 |
3 | $95,578,040 | $91,500,929 |
4 | $118,818,903 | $116,805,962 |
5 | $130,284,561 | $128,820,944 |
6 | $138,583,114 | $136,276,649 |
7 | $145,607,067 | $142,697,174 |
8 | $157,460,537 | $154,553,014 |
9 | $173,726,333 | $171,807,702 |
10 | $186,992,778 | $185,537,718 |
11 | $191,560,625 | $190,237,136 |
12 | $197,630,827 | $198,035,063 |
13 | $201,931,560 | $203,136,661 |
14 | $206,020,339 | $207,885,926 |
15 | $212,836,339 | $214,861,744 |
16 | $221,631,339 | $224,618,530 |
17 | $228,810,339 | $232,566,894 |
The domestic box office for Aladdin finished at around $356 million. The Little Mermaid is trending a bit lower, but a good guess for the final domestic box office take for The Little Mermaid is around $350 million.
Where the two movies diverge is in international box office. Aladdin finished with almost 2× as much box office business as it saw domestically ($695 million vs $350 million), while The Little Mermaid is seeing about 0.8× as much international box office business.
Further, Aladdin was produced on a $183 million budget while The Litte Mermaid took around $250 million to produce. We can thus create the following projected finacial comparison:
Box Office | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Movie | Budget | Domestic | International | Total | Box Office/Budget |
Aladdin | $183M | $356M | $695M | $1,051M | 5.7× |
The Little Mermaid | ~$250M | ~$350M | ~$280M | ~$630M | ~2.5× |
Grossing ~2.5× of the production budget means that The Little Mermaid probably broke even or made a little bit of money for Disney. If the production budget had been held to the $183 million that Aladdin managed, the box office to budget ratio would be a solid, if not spectacular for Disney, 3.4× and the movie would be solidly profitable.
Interestingly, the same basic conclusion — excess production budget turned what could have been a solidly profitable movie into something financially worse — could be made for (Lady) Ghostbusters (the 2016 remake) when compared to the 2021 Ghostbusters "sequel" Afterlife:
Movie | Budget | Box Office | Box Office/Budget |
---|---|---|---|
Ghostbusters (2016) | $144M | $229M | 1.6× |
Afterlife (2021) | 75M | $204M | 2.7× |
The 2016 movie is considered a bomb with loss estimates ranging from $25 million to $50 million. The planned sequel was cancelled. When Sony released a "Ghostbusters Ultimate Collection" set of DVDs in 2021 the 2016 movie was omitted
The 2021 Afterlife had a lower box office gross ($204M vs $229M), but controlled costs better, was profitable, and has a sequel scheduled to be released in last 2023.
- Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS)
- Credit Suisse
- Swiss Bank Corporation (SBC)
- Swiss Volksbank
- Bank Leu
- 1990: CS buys Bank Leu
- 1993: CS buys Swiss Volksbank
- 1998: UBS merges with Swiss Bank Corp (merged bank named the United Bank of Switzerland)
- 2023: UBS takes over Credit Suisse
The list of top Swiss banks by assets is now something like this:
Bank | Assets |
---|---|
UBS | 1,571B € |
Raiffelsen | 284B € |
Zurcher Kantonalbank | 202B € |
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/europes-50-largest-banks-by-assets-2023
High School GPA | 4.04 - 4.28 |
ACT Composite Score | 26 - 31 |
ACT English Language Arts | 27 - 34 |
SAT Evidence Based Reading & Writing | 630 - 730 |
SAT Mathematics | 650 - 790 |
SAT Essay | 15 - 18 |
75% of UCSB freshmen seem to have a 4.04 GPA or better and a SAT score of ~1280 or better.
Using ChatGPT, I got a bunch of potentially useful data on the percentage of various national populations over 80 from 1920 to the present. But I can't be sure the AI isn't making stuff up and by the time I find the numbers on the cited sources I haven't saved any time. ChatGPT has an enormous advantage at rummaging through databases but that isn't any good if I can't trust it. And it looks like it was wrong.
Games | Yards | QB Rate | QBR | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season | Played | Started | Passing | Rushing | Rank | Value | Rank | Value |
2018 | 16/16 | 7/16 | 1201 | 695 | 84.5 | 42.6 | ||
2019 | 15/16 | 15/16 | 3127 | 1206 | 3 | 113.3 | 1 | 83.0 |
2020 | 15/16 | 15/16 | 2757 | 1005 | 11 | 99.3 | 7 | 67.3 |
2021 | 12/17 | 12/17 | 2882 | 767 | 23 | 87.0 | 17 | 50.7 |
2022 | 12/17 | 12/17 | 2242 | 764 | 17 | 91.1 | 9 | 59.0 |
Lamar Jackson was the single best quarterback of the 2019 season. He was the unanimous league MVP that year. His 2020 season was also good, but not "unanimous league MVP" good. Which isn't a surprise. Then, for each of the past two seasons he has played 12 of the 17 regular season games and in the games he did play was roughly the 10th -15th best quarterback in the league, so still above average but not MVP or even top-5 level of play.
Recent large and insane (?) NFL QB contracts that he seems to be looking to as comparables include:
Start | Contract Details | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yrs | Fully GTD | GTD/Year |
2022 | Deshaun Watson | 5 | $230,000,000 | $46,000,000 |
2022 | Russell Wilson | 5 | $124,000,000 | $24,800,000 |
2022 | Kyler Murray | 5 | $103,300,000 | $20,600,000 |
- Deshaun Watson was held out of all games in the 2021 season by the Houston Texans,
traded to Cleveland in the offseason and then suspended for the first 11 games of
the 2022 season by the league. His QB Rate for the six games he played in 2022
was 79.1 and his QBR was 38.3.
- Russell Watson had the worst season of his career after Denver gave him a new
contract and finished the 2022 season ranked 27th and 28th at QB Rate and QBR
respectively.
- Kyler Murray's statistics for the past two years have been similar to Lamar's,
having a better 2021 season than Lamar and a worse 2022 season. Kyler Murray's
contract extension came with a clause requiring 'four hours of independent study'
per game week because the Arizona Cardinals did not believe he was studying game
film on his own prior to the games.
Lamar declined the Baltimore offer and was recently franchised tagged for the 2023 season. This makes Lamar's earnings for 2022-3 $55 million. If he plays under a 2nd franchise tag for the 2024 season his earnings for the two seasons after 2022 will be $71 million compared to the $110 million guaranteed for five seasons by the Baltimore offer. His last season and the next two (assuming no injury and no long-term contract) look like this:
- 2022: $23.0 million
- 2023: $32.4 million (franchise tag)
- 2024: $38.9 million (estimated hypothetical 2nd franchise tag)
Since only about ⅓ of five year NFL contracts see the player still getting paid in years four and five it is reasonable to focus on the "guaranted at signing" number rather than the overall total — a 5-year, $200 million contract might see the player only getting paid $120 million to $160 million.
Short term contracts give a quarterback the highest potential pay, but come with the risk that an injury or serious decline in performance will result in a huge drop in pay.
It isn't obvious that the ESPN reported Baltimore offer (effectively an additional $110 million fully guaranteed over an additional five years) was particularly high given that Lamar may well earn $30 - $40+ million per year over the next five years if he remains health and will be in a position to earn $70 million over the next two years baring injury or a huge drop-off in performance. Nor does it seem obviously given Lamar's latest two seasons. If one expects Lamar to revert to his 2019 MVP performance then the Baltimore offer is low.
So Jalen Hurts recently signed a five year contract with the Eagles. This contract was for a total of $255,000,000 with $110,000,000 guaranteed at signing (and $179 million "guaranteed"). The contract also included a no-trade clause and was structured so that most of the salary cap hit is in the later years (which makes it easier for the Eagles to assemble a good team around Hurts).
A bit after this, Lamar Jackson agreed to terms with the Baltimore Ravens: 5 years, $260,000,000 total with $112,500,000 guaranteed at signing ($185 million "guaranteed"). An updated quarterback salary table looks like this:
Start | Contract Details | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yrs | Fully GTD | GTD/Year |
2022 | Deshaun Watson | 5 | $230,000,000 | $46,000,000 |
2022 | Russell Wilson | 5 | $124,000,000 | $24,800,000 |
2023 | Lamar Jackson | 5 | $112,500,000 | $22,500,000 |
2023 | Jalen Hurts | 5 | $110,000,000 | $22,000,000 |
2022 | Kyler Murray | 5 | $103,300,000 | $20,600,000 |
2023 | Josh Allen | 6 | $100,000,000 | $16,700,000 |
Lamar got $500,000/year guaranteed more than Jalen Hurts' contract and $2M/year more if he stays for the full five years. Both Jalen Hurts and Lamar got no-trade clauses.
When an MLB player signs a contract for five years and $50 million he will be paid $50 million over five years unless he retires (or is suspended for cause).
When an NBA player signs a contract for five years and $50 million he will be paid $50 million over five years unless he retires (or is suspended for cause).
When an NHL player signs a contract for five years and $50 million he will be paid $50 million over five years unless he retires (or is suspended for cause).
When an NFL player signs a contract for five years and $50 million he will be paid some percentage of $50 million, but rarely the entire $50 million.
NFL contracts come with salary guarantees, though, so the $50 million contract might have $20 million guaranteed. The player often won't get paid the entire $20 million guaranteed, either. This recently happened:
Bobby Wagner joined the Los Angeles Rams after spending a decade playing for the Seattle Seahawks. His Rams tenure ended up being quite a bit shorter.His contract was:
Wagner and the Rams mutually agreed to part ways on Thursday, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, one season into the five-year, $50 million contract he signed to join the team.
- 5 years for $50 million total
- $20 million guaranteed ($10 million guaranteed at signing)
The magic phrase for NFL contract is "guaranteed at signing" or "fully guaranteed."
The way a "5 year, $50 million" NFL contract would be described were it an MLB contract is usually closer to "1 year, $10 million contract with four team option years."
...
The Ringer studied every multiyear free-agent contract in Spotrac's database signed from 2011, the start of the most recent collective bargaining agreement, to 2015—a total of 663 deals. This data focuses solely on contracts signed during free agency, so it doesn't account for rookie contracts, contract extensions, or players who re-signed with their team before becoming unrestricted free agents. It also excludes one-year free-agent deals.
The results were staggering: A player who signs a five-year deal has better odds of lasting one year (14.7 percent) than he does of lasting five years (13.7 percent). Players who sign four-year contracts in free agency have the exact same odds of lasting one year on the deal (23.1 percent) as lasting four years. Players on three-year contracts have roughly the same odds of the deal ending in one full season or less (34.3 percent) as they do of lasting the full term (36.2 percent). Less than half of players who sign two-year deals last two years (45.8 percent), and one-sixth don't even make it through the first year. If time is money, in the NFL both are relative.
From CBS on 29-Feb-2024:
Mattison took over last season for Dalvin Cook and ran for 700 yards and caught 30 passes. Now he becomes a free agent again, LIKE LAST YEAR WHEN HE SIGNED A TWO-YEAR DEAL WITH MINNESOTA.
What running does to the knees, according to a large survey of marathon runnersSo, among runners capable of running a marathon, there was no increased risk for knee or hip arthritis based on the amount of running done.
Many doctors see osteoarthritis as a “wear-and-tear” condition, but a large survey among long-distance runners found no increased knee or hip risks.
Runners often hear the warning “Keep pounding the pavement and you'll destroy your knees.” A new study found that runners were not more likely to develop hip or knee osteoarthritis the longer, faster and more frequently they ran.
...
The new research surveyed 3,804 recreational runners who participated in the Chicago Marathon in 2019 or 2021 with questions from how many years they’d been running and their average running paces to whether they had family histories of arthritis.
...
On average, runners who responded to the survey were just shy of 44 years old and ran 27.9 miles per week at 8 minutes and 52 seconds per mile. They’d typically been running for close to 15 years, although that number ranged from 1 to 67 years. Many respondents were running their first marathon while a select few had run dozens. Most fell somewhere in between.
Thanks to the broad nature of the group surveyed — a departure from historical research focused on elite-level Olympians — the Northwestern researchers could analyze how runners' arthritis risk changed according to their running pace, intensity and cumulative running history.
Surprisingly, they found no association between an increased risk for knee or hip arthritis and the number of years someone had been running, the number of marathons completed, their weekly running mileage, nor their running pace.
—What running does to the knee
Consequently, in the first centuries of its existence, Russia expanded at a rate of one Belgium per year.Belgium is almost 12,000 square miles.
Interestingly, US territorial growth was similar to Russian territorial growth!
- US Land area 1783: ~800,000 square miles
- US Land area 2022: ~3.8M square miles
Years: 239
Area growth per year: ~12,500 square miles ...
So ... in the first centuries of its existence, the USA also expanded at a rate of one Belgium per year.
Then, on November-11-2022 we got another use of Belgium as a unit of area, this time from al Jazeera:
The Belgium-sized Kherson province was seized within days after the February 24 invasion began, becoming Russia's largest and most strategic gain.For future reference, I present this helpful table of Belgium equivalents:
—Russia's Kherson retreat marks tectonic shift in Ukraine war
Football field: | |
Connecticut: | ½ a Belgium |
Belgium: | 1 Belgium (canonically) |
Maryland: | 1 Belgium |
West Virginia: | 2 Begiums |
Greece: | 4 Belgiums |
Poland: | 10 Belgiums |
New Mexico: | 10 Belgiums |
France: | 18 Belgiums |
India: | 100 Belgiums |
Australia: | 250 Belgiums |
22-Jun-2023:
We can see a failure to properly use Belgium as a unit in this Yahoo news article:
Authorities are hoping underwater sounds might help narrow their search, whose coverage area has been expanded to thousands of miles — twice the size of Connecticut...A clearer explanation would have been, "has been expanded to thousands of miles — about the size of Belgium..."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/rescuers-last-desperate-push-final-040243936.html
Source | Headline |
---|---|
Fortune: | Silicon Valley Bank's CEO sold $3.6 million of stock in potentially 'problematic' transaction days before historic bank failure |
Forbes: | SVB Financial CEO Sold $3.6 Million In Stock Before Bank's Collapse |
Bloomberg: | SVB CEO Sold $3.6 Million in Stock Days Before Bank's Failure |
Barrons: | SVB Financial CEO Greg Becker Sold $3.6 Million in Stock Nearly Two Weeks Ago |
Marketwatch: | Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker cashed out $2 million just before the collapse |
New York Post: | Silicon Valley Bank CEO sold $3.5M in shares just two weeks before collapse |
WSJ: | Silicon Valley Bank CEO Sold $3.6 Million In Shares Days Before Fatal Loss Disclosed |
Many other sites (e.g. Yahoo News) ran one of more of these headlines and stories so the coverage was not limited to the financial press.
The headlines are true, but misleading because the obvious implication in each of these headlines was that the CEO, Greg Becker, knew (or suspected) that Silicon Valley Bank was going out of business and sold stock before the stock market found out and the share price crashed. This is possible, but unlikely. A more complete look at Becker's stock ownership, previous selling behavior, and stock option expiration dates leads to the more likely conclusion that Becker was exercising in-the-money stock options before they expired and then selling the stock for cash to maintain a constant stock ownership position in Silicon Valley Bank.
Barrons headline wasn't much better than the others, but Barrons did have the best article content:
Roughly two weeks before SVB stock collapsed and its Silicon Valley Bank unit was closed by regulators, its top executive sold millions of dollars of shares.SEC disclosure forms indicate that Becker's "unchanged stock ownership" consisted of 92,552 shares in a revocable trust and 6,315 shares in a retirement account (either 401(k) or ESOP). In total, he owned 98,867 shares of Silicon Valley Bank when it was taken over. At the roughly $287/share price he sold his stock from his exercised options, the 98,867 shares would have been worth roughly $28 million before the FDIC takeover of the bank. Those shares are now, for all practical purposes, worthless.
SVB President and CEO Greg Becker sold 12,451 shares on Feb. 27 for $3.6 million, an average price of $287.42 each. That day he also acquired the same number of shares using stock options priced at $105.18 each, according to a form he filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The options exercise paired with the stock sale meant that Becker's stock ownership in SVB remained unchanged.
Both transactions were made through a trust that he controls, using a trading plan that he had set up on Jan. 26, according to the filing. The options had been set to expire May 2.
This block of expiring options was not the first set of options Becker received nor was this the first time he has sold stock in Silicon Valley Bank.
The Wall Street Journal's covereage included commentary that was exceptionally bad:
On Feb. 27, the trust sold $3.6 million worth of shares while acquiring options worth $1.3 million. The trades were scheduled on Jan. 26 through an SEC rule that allows insiders to schedule sales ahead of time to allay suspicions of trading on insider information.Since his option exercise date would not change under the new 10b5-1 rules, the declaration of intent to sell would simply have been made 60 days earlier than it was, so intead of declaring an intention to sell on January 26th and selling on February 27th, the declaration of intent to sell would have been made on November 26th of 2022 and the sale on February 27th would have happened anyway.
...
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has highlighted 10b5-1 plans as having been potentially abused by executives and the agency has proposed new rules for the program.
The sales executed by Mr. Becker's trust would not have been possible under the proposed rules, which stipulate among other things that 10b5-1 sellers must wait 90 days between filing the trades and executing them.
9-Feb-2025:
In January of 2025 the FDIC announced that it was suing 17 former executives and directors of SVB. Those 17 include former CEO Greg Becker, as well as former CFO Daniel Beck and former chief risk officer Laura Izurieta (who left the bank in April of 2022, almost a year before the bank collapsed).
Title | 2022 Gross | Derivative? |
---|---|---|
Top Gun: Maverick | $718,732,821 | Sequel |
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | $436,499,646 | Marvel |
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness | $411,331,607 | Marvel |
Avatar: The Way of Water | $401,007,908 | Sequel |
Jurassic World: Dominion | $376,851,080 | Sequel |
Minions: The Rise of Gru | $369,695,210 | Sequel |
The Batman | $369,345,583 | DC |
Thor: Love and Thunder | $343,256,830 | Marvel |
Spider-Man: No Way Home | $231,808,708 | Marvel |
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 | $190,872,904 | Sequel |
Black Adam | $168,054,237 | DC |
Elvis | $151,040,048 | |
Uncharted | $148,649,929 | |
Nope | $123,277,080 | |
Lightyear | $118,307,188 | Sequel |
Smile | $105,935,048 | |
The Lost City | $105,344,029 | |
Bullet Train | $103,368,602 | |
The Bad Guys | $97,233,630 | |
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore | $95,850,844 | Sequel |
The 1977 table (as far back as boxofficemojo goes) looks like this:
Title | 1977 Gross | Derivative? |
---|---|---|
Star Wars | $195,666,111 | |
The Deep | $47,346,365 | |
The Spy Who Loved Me | $45,313,255 | James Bond |
Oh, God! | $41,687,243 | |
Exorcist II: The Heretic | $30,749,142 | Sequel |
The Turning Point | $25,815,410 | |
Looking for Mr. Goodbar | $22,512,655 | |
Saturday Night Fever | $18,234,852 | |
Close Encounters of the Third Kind | $16,172,445 |
9-Mar-2023: And old (2017 London Comic Con?) Anthony Mackie (the actor behind Marvel's "Falcon")
There are no movie stars anymore. Like, Anthony Mackie isn't a movie star. The Falcon is a movie star. And that's what's weird. It used to be with Tom Cruise and Will Smith and Stallone and Schwarzenegger, when you went to the movies, you went to see the Stallone movie ... Now you go to see ... X-Men. So the evolution of the superhero has meant the death of the movie star. It's just a different time now.This makes sense when people are going to the movies to see the next installment of a series or a franchise rather then the most recent movie by their favorite movie star.
The yearly worldwide box office leading movies since 2000 (from https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) looks like this:
Year | Title |
---|---|
2022: | Avatar: The Way of Water |
2021: | Spider-Man: No Way Home |
2020: | The Eight Hundred |
2019: | Avengers: Endgame |
2018: | Avengers: Infinity War |
2017: | Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi |
2016: | Captain America: Civil War |
2015: | Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens |
2014: | Transformers: Age of Extinction |
2013: | Frozen |
2012: | The Avengers |
2011: | Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 |
2010: | Toy Story 3 |
2009: | Avatar |
2008: | The Dark Knight |
2007: | Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End |
2006: | Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest |
2005: | Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire |
2004: | Shrek 2 |
2003: | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
2002: | The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers |
2001: | Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone |
2000: | Mission: Impossible II |
1999: | Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace |
1998: | Armageddon |
1997: | Titanic |
1996: | Independence Day |
1995: | Toy Story |
1994: | The Lion King |
1993: | Jurassic Park |
1992: | Aladdin |
1991: | Beauty and the Beast |
1990: | Home Alone |
1989: | Batman |
1988: | Who Framed Roger Rabbit? |
1987: | Three Men and a Baby |
1986: | Top Gun |
1985: | Out of Africa |
1984: | Beverly Hills Cop |
1983: | Return of the Jedi |
1982: | E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial |
1981: | Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark |
1980: | The Empire Strikes Back |
1979: | Kramer vs. Kramer |
1978: | Grease |
1977: | Star Wars |
Derivative movies (sequels or followup movies in a cinematic universe (e.g. MCD) are marked in color. I'm scoring the Lord of the Rings trilogy as a single (very long) movie released in three parts and so am not considering the two entries derivative.
Notice that the Avatar sequel is the #1 worldwide grossing 2022 movie, but only #4 domesticly.
2020 was a weird year because of Covid. The Eight Hundred led the worldwide box office list for 2020, but 99% of the ticket sales were in China so outside of China almost no one is aware of the movie. #2 for 2020 was "Demon Slayer the Movie: Mugen Train." Neither were derivative nor was the #1 movie at the US box office — Bad Boys for Life.
11-Mar-2023:
Dergarabedian noted that when Hollywood takes chances on new, fresh and interesting ideas, the payoff typically isn't there. He pointed to M. Night Shyamalan's $60 million domestic gross for Sony's "After Earth" and the $47 million draw for the Wachowski siblings' "Jupiter Ascending," from Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros.
"When that happens, studios go back to what's proven," Dergarabedian said. "Discovering something new and falling love with a film is one of the experiences you can have in theaters, but that really only happens in the indie world.
"No matter how much people complain about the number of sequels and franchises in Hollywood, it's because they typically don't show up and support new ideas in film."
When | Event |
---|---|
Aug-2018 | 2 mm hole discovered drilled in Soyuz MS-09. |
Oct-2018 | Soyuz MS-10 mission aborted due to booster failure. |
Jul-2021 | Russian Nauka module unexpectedly fires thrusters while docked to ISS, tumbling ISS. |
Sep-2021 | Kosmos-2551 spy satellite failed shortly after launch. Crashed in October. |
Oct-2021 | Soyuz capsule thruster test continued after expected test end while docked to ISS, tumbling ISS. |
Dec-2021 | Angara A5 upper stage booster failed to perform second burn. Upper stage crashes in January. |
Aug-2022 | Oleg Artemyev experiences EVA suit malfunction during ISS space walk. |
Aug-2022 | GLONASS satellite positioning system suffers disruption for several hours. |
Dec-2022 | Soyuz MS-22 experiences coolant leak while docked to ISS. Unsafe to return people to Earth. |
Feb-2023 | Progress MS-21 experiences coolant leak while docked to ISS. |
29-Feb-2024:
Year | Total | |
---|---|---|
2022 | 101 | 4 police shootings. New homicide record. |
2021 | 90 | 4 police shootings. New homicide record. Previous record was 70 in 1987. |
2020 | 55 | 0 police shootings. Highest total since 50 in 1994 |
2019 | 39 | 5 police shootings. Highest total since 48 in 1997. |
2018 | 33 | 3 police shootings. |
2017 | 27 | 2 police shootings. |
2016 | 20 | 1 police shooting. |
2015 | 34 | 3 police shootings. |
2014 | 26 | 2 police shootings. |
2013 | 16 | 2 police shootings. Lowest total since 15 in 1971 |
2012 | 29 | 2 police shootings. |
2011 | 24 | 1 police shooting. |
2010 | 29 | 4 police shootings. |
2009 | 21 | |
2008 | 27 | |
2007 | 30 | |
2006 | 28 | |
2005 | 22 | |
2004 | 29 | |
2003 | 28 | |
2002 | 20 | |
2001 | 22 | |
2000 | 18 | |
1999 | 36 | |
1998 | 28 | |
1997 | 48 | |
1996 | 46 | |
1995 | 45 | |
1994 | 50 | |
1993 | 54 | |
1992 | 46 | |
1991 | 50 | |
1990 | 29 | |
1989 | 38 |
- 60 or more
- 31 - 60
- 30 or fewer
https://www.portland.gov/police/chiefs-office/documents/2005-police-annual-report/download https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2020/01/35-homicides-in-portland-in-2019-involved-victims-ranging-in-age-from-18-to-65.html https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2021/01/55-homicides-in-portland-in-2020-the-most-in-26-years-involved-victims-from-8-months-old-to-71.html https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2023/01/portlands-101-homicides-in-2022-set-new-record-at-some-point-we-have-to-be-tired-of-burying-our-children.html https://www.portland.gov/police/open-data/ois-summaries
01-May-2023: Portland has seen 28 homicides thorough April-30 of 2023. Tripling this would be 84 homicides for all of 2023.
Portland homicides for 2023 were 73 and for 2024 were 66. So declining since the 2022 peak, but still much higher than the 20 - 30 homicides/year from 2001 - 2018.
Explore the State-Space of Olfaction with the Qualia Research Institute
...
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The Cutting-Edge (Preorder)
Includes one additional Mystical Type Magical Creature. This scent has special effects that have the capacity to expand the mind and activate new modes of experience that foreshadow the radical phase transitions of consciousness native to the Post-Darwinian evolutionary era.
Comes with a set of 50ml bottles of Open Fearless, Dust Devil, Glacial Gumdrop, Frisson, Eau de Cologne Vide, and Hedonium Shockwave + scent exploration accessories.
Also Includes:
- Feature on Our Donors (optional)
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- Personalized scent exploration
There's dozens of different types [of semiconductors], but you can kind of put them in three big buckets.So ... let's see:
Your top tier, the best ones, these are 10 nm and smaller. This is typically what's in your cell phone or even high end computers and servers. Those, about 80% of them, are actually fabricated in Taiwan with another 20% in South Korea.
But, again, you need the whole ecosystem to make it work. Remove one country, the whole thing falls apart.
In the middle, you've got everything that goes from climate control systems to automotive to aerospace to machinery. Those are made in a host of places: the United States, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, China, the Netherlands ... a little bit in Germany as well. This still requires the ecosystem but you could probably lose one player. Probably not more than one player.
And then you've got your low end. 90 nm and up. These are chips that are basically analog processors. They can do one little yes/no equation, not much more than that. This is the Internet of Things.
- Intel has been shipping 10nm chips in volume since 2020
(
here is an example laptop chip ) and has been shipping more 10 nm parts than 14 nm parts since the middle of 2021. The middle of 2021 is 18 months ago and Peter doesn't mention Intel as a top tier player, mentioning only TSMC and Samsung.
- AMD has been shipping TSMC manufactured 7 nm chips since the Zen 2
x86 micro-architecture. Both server and consumer (Ryzen brand) Zen 2
parts were available in late 2019. Even non-high-end "computers and
servers" have been on what Zeihan describes as a high end process
since early 2020, so two full years.
- 10 nm sounds like a size, but semiconductor device "size" values
have not corresponded to actual measurable size for quite a while.
At the 90 nm node (around 2004) a 90 nm transistor had a half-pitch
of 90 nm. Earlier nodes (e.g. 130 nm, 180 nm, ...) were also named
after the measurable half-pitch of the transistors being built.
But by 2009, the 32 nm node had a half-pitch of 52 nm. Today
the gap between the size used in the node name and the physical size
of the transistors is even more extreme.
This discrepency gives vendors the ability to name their nodes with more leeway. Intel 10 nm (once Intel worked out the bugs) is roughly equivalent to TSMC 7 nm. Again, I see no evidence that Zeihan knows this.
- 90 nm does not mean 'basically analog.' Zeihan seems to be using
the word 'analog' as a synonym for 'not very advanced.' That isn't
what analog means.
- Analog is not yes/no ... yes/no would be digital. I wonder whether Zeihan knows the difference. I suspect not.
Peter is so confident about so many things. But ... how much competence/knowledge should I assume for Peter Zeihan in areas I don't know given his poor knowledge in one area I can gauge?
And Neon shortages back in 2022:
Many forecasters, like Peter Zeihan, were predicting economic disaster, disruption and shortages from the Russia-Ukraine war. The over $1 trillion semiconductor chip industry would be wrecked from a shortage of neon gas. 70% of the gas is made by Ukraine and Russia. The prices did shoot up but now have come back down and semiconductor supplies are good.Followed by Silicon shortages in 2024:
— NextBigFutureBusiness Avoided and Fixed Neon Shortage From Russia-Ukraine War
We're hitting the backroads today and chatting about the small town of Spruce Pine, North Carolina. What this town lacks in population, it makes up in its (extremely important) quartz mines.Neither shortage mattered enough to disrupt semiconductor manufacturing such that it was noticable.
These mines in Spruce Pine play a critical role in semiconductor manufacturing, thanks to the very pure quartz found here. This pure quartz is used to make the crucibles in which silicon is melted down without contamination. And no this isn't just one of the many places that has this stuff... Spruce Pine accounts for an estimated 70-90% of the world's crucible-grade quartz.
Hurricane Helene has put these mines in jeopardy with the heavy rains and flooding that hit the area. This has shut down the roads and the mines, and recovery efforts will be stalled until the larger towns are taken care of. This means the mines could be out of commission for a while, impacting the supply chains for the semiconductor fabrication plants.
We're not in the red-zone yet, since most facilities keep a decent reserve on hand. However, if the production of this high-quality silicon is affected, we could be looking at major disruptions down the road.
— Zeihan.com:How a Small Town in NC Could Disrupt Global Semiconductor Production
Two packets of Quaker's Instant Maple and Brown Sugar Oatmeal is nutritionally roughly comparable to two packets of Quaker's Instant Regular Oatmeal plus a 9 oz. Coke:
Maple (×2) | Original (×2) + 9 oz. Coke | Original (x2) | 9 Oz. Coke | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Calories: | 320 | 316 | 200 | 116 |
Fat (g): | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Sodium (mg): | 520 | 183 | 150 | 33 |
Carbohydrates (g): | 66 | 65 | 36 | 29 |
Fibre (g): | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
Sugars (g): | 24 | 29 | 0 | 29 |
Protein (g): | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
NIALA: During the pandemic enrollment in public schools went down by more than a million students. That's according to the National Center for Education Statistics.So ... to summarize:
...
So I think the obvious first question is if students are leaving public schools, where are they going?
ERICA: So they're going to private schools, they're going to charter schools, and the homeschooling population of students in the U.S. has actually doubled during the pandemic from around 2.5 million to around 5 million.
—Why America's public school enrollment is down
- Public schools lost over 1 million students during the recent pandemic.
- 2.5 million of those 1M+ lost students became home schooled.
- The rest went to private and charter schools.
This is compared to June when Ford was as $11B and Tesla was at $8B.
Ford sold a lot more individual cars of course ...
Realistically, he is doing well. Michigan won the Big10 the past two years and beat both Ohio State and Penn State the past two years. In addition, Michigan went to the playoffs the past two years.
So ... Jim is doing a good job by any reasonable metric.
However ... Michigan has also gone to 7 bowl games since Harbaugh took over. Michigan is 1-6 in those, winning only in Harbaugh's first season. By season:
2015: | W | vs Florida | 41-7 |
2016: | L | to Florida State | 33-32 |
2017: | L | to South Carolina | 26-19 |
2018: | L | to Florida | 41-15 |
2019: | L | to Alabama | 35-16 |
2020: | |||
2021: | L | to Georgia | 34-11 |
2022: | L | to TCU | 51-45 |
I'm not seeing Ohio State getting back to dominance, so I can see Jim staying at Michigan for a while, but I expect folks to soon start wondering if he can "win it all."
9-Feb-2025:
On January 8, 2024, Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines won it all by defeating Washington 34-13 to win the championship.
Jim Harbaugh left to become the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers after the season ended.
From the article itself:
But not all customers are loving it.Because, presumably, higher wages cause employers to favor employees over automation ...
...
"I'm not giving my money to robots," another commenter wrote. "Raise the minimum wage!"
Technically there can be times when a tie helps. But since D1 college football games are now played until there is a winner, the choices for a given game are 'win' or 'lose.' I can't think of a time when losing a regular season college football game would incrase a team's chances to make the playoffs.
Our Father who art in heaven,Underlining added by me.
Hallowed be thy Name.
Thy kingdom come;
Thy will be done on Earth
as it is in heaven.
Give us this day our daily bread;
and forgive us our trespasses
as we forgive those who trespass against us;
and lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.
The point to the underlined bit is a response to the observation that people are more likely to sin when given the opportunity. It is harder to drink excessively if there is no liquor in the house. Most people don't get the opportunity to embezzle millions of dollars and so, by necessity, don't.
Which leads us to Temar Boggs.
In 2013, when Temar was 15 years old, he and a friend noticed a five year old girl being kidnapped from a porch. Stranger kidnappings in the US are rare, but not unheard of.
Temar and his friend jumped on their bicycles and followed the car with the kidnapped little girl. After quite a car chase on the bicycles the kidnapper gave up trying to elude Temar and his friend and let the child go free before driving away. Temar (and his friend) were heroes. The kidnapper, Harold Leroy Herr, was eventually found and was sentenced to a long term in prison.
Three years later, in 2016, the same Temar Boggs went to prison for an armed robbery he committed with an accomplice.
This is the same kid, but clearly in very different circumstances and quite possibly with a different set of friends.
It is easy to imagine an alternate 2016 where Temar was hanging out with different friends and he doesn't commit the robbery and go to jail. He'd still be the same person, and no one would have reason to believe that he would ever rob a local market.
"SpaceX has moved very quickly on development," Kirasich said about Raptor. "We've seen them manufacture what was called Raptor 1.0. They have since upgraded to Raptor 2.0 that first of all increases performance and thrust and secondly reduces the amount of parts, reducing the amount of time to manufacture and test. They build these things very fast. Their goal was seven engines a week, and they hit that about a quarter ago. So they are now building seven engines a week."
— 2022:SpaceX is now building a Raptor engine a day, NASA says
Once the BE-4 production line is stabilized, Huntsville staff will be trained in Kent and then return to ramp up engine production in Huntsville. Ultimately the factory will be able to produce 42 engines a year, split roughly evenly between the BE-4 and the BE-3U engine that will power the upper stage of New Glenn. The company expects to take two to three years to reach that production rate.
— 2020:Blue Origin opens rocket engine factory
Team | Record | Highest Paid Players (Rank) | Combined Salary |
---|---|---|---|
Bucks | 3-0 | Giannis Antetokounmpo (7), Khris Middleton (13), Jrue Holiday (25) | $117M |
Warriors | 3-2 | Steph Curry (1), Klay Thompson (10), Andrew Wiggins (27) | $122M |
Nets | 1-4 | Kevin Durant (4), Kyrie Irving (19), Ben Simmons (21) | $116M |
76ers | 1-4 | Tobias Harris (15), Joel Embiid (26), James Harden (30) | $104M |
Lakers | 0-4 | Russell Westbook (2), Lebron James (3), Anthony Davis (12) | $129M |
How many children must a given woman give birth to to have a 50% chance of having at least one Indian child?
One approach is to compute the chance that ALL children are non-Indian and one then gets the following table:
Children | All non-Indian | At least one Indian | |
1 | 83% | 17% | |
2 | 69% | 31% | |
3 | 53% | 47% | |
4 | 47% | 53% |
Under coach Nick Saban, the Alabama Crimson Tide does not lose often, but when they do, they probably have a pretty good idea of who they will play in their next game.Well, yes. Because scheduling isn't done week-to-week? Whether Alabama knows who they will play in their next game is an empirical question, however and we can provide a quantitative answer. By season, we can look at the losses and whether the next opponent was known:
Coming off tough road losses last weekend, No. 6 Alabama and No. 24 Mississippi State will meet in a Southeastern Conference contest Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, Ala
https://sports.yahoo.com/no-6-alabama-no-24-182332538.html
Year | Record | Opponents Known After Loss | Opponents Unknown After Loss | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | (7-6) | 5 | games 4, 5, 9-11 | 1 | Bowl opponent after game 12 loss |
2008 | (12-2) | 1 | Bowl game | 1 | Bowl opponent after SEC Championship loss |
2009 | (14-0) | 0 | 0 | ||
2010 | (10-3) | 2 | games 6 & 9 | 1 | Bowl opponent after game 12 loss |
2011 | (12-1) | 1 | game 9 | 0 | |
2012 | (13-1) | 1 | game 10 | 0 | |
2013 | (11-2) | 1 | bowl game | 1 | Bowl opponent after game 12 loss |
2014 | (12-2) | 2 | game 5. BCS Championship | 0 | |
2015 | (14-1) | 1 | game 3 | 0 | |
2016 | (14-1) | 1 | BCS Championship | 0 | |
2017 | (14-1) | 0 | 1 | Bowl opponent after game 12 loss | |
2018 | (14-1) | 1 | BCS Championship | 0 | |
2019 | (11-2) | 1 | game 9 | 1 | Bowl opponent after game 12 loss |
2020 | (13-0) | 0 | 0 | ||
2021 | (13-2) | 2 | game 6. BCS Championship | 0 | |
2022 | (6-1) | 1 | game 7 | 0 | |
Total | 20 | 6 |
What is interesting is that it does seem that Alabama knows their next opponent after a loss about 80% of the time ... but 80% is actually pretty low!
We have about 130 BCS teams in ten conferences. A few teams are independent, but not very many.
They will, collectively, lose ½ their regular season games. For every regular season game except the last one the next opponent will be known.
The next opponent will be known if a team:
- Loses any regular season game except for the last one, or
- Loses a bowl game (because season schedules are set more than six months in advance)
- Loses the last game of the regular season but will go to a bowl game or at conference championship
Known: 65 × 11
There are 65 losses for the 'last' regular season game. About ½ the teams won't be bowl eligible so they'll know their next opponent. About ½ will be and won't.
Known: 65 × ½
Unknown: 65 × ½
Unknown: 65 × ½
The folks that lose their conference championship game won't know, so:
Unknown: 10 × 1
The folks that lose their bowl game (or BCS playoff or championship game) will know:
Known: 65 × ½
So ... in total we expect roughly this many losses to have a known next opponent:
Known: 65 × 11 + 65 × ½ + 65 × ½ ≈ 780
And this many losses to not be followed by a known opponent:
Unknown: 65 × ½ + 10 × 1 ≈ 43
A "typical" loss is in a game where the next opponent is known about 95% of the time. On only about 5% of losses is the next opponent unknown. Alabama's 80% "known next opponent after a loss" is VERY low.
The source is "Field Level Media". Field Level Media claims that their articles are written by humans. I'm wondering if they are experimenting with adding bots...
Alternately, the human writing the article wanted some babbling filler ... maybe to hit a word count target?
Previous entry: Trivially Meaningless or Wrong
We can make a binomial expansion of what we should expect if each game was a true coin-flip. The standings are actually more compressed than this with the tails smaller (no team is 0-4, for example) and the middle at 2-2 fatter than expected.
The various records, # teams with that record, expected # of teams with that record (assuming a binomial distribution) [and some team info to make things checkable]. Two teams with a tie are excluded so there are only 30 win-loss results. Because of this the binomial expansion results are a bit below the 2-8-12-8-2 distribution for 32 team results:
# Teams | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Record | Actual | Binomial | Diff | Who |
4-0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | Philly |
3-1 | 7 | 7½ | -½ | Cowboys, Giants, Vikings, Packers, Miami, Buffalo, Kansas City |
2-2 | 15 | 11¼ | +4 | 8 AFC, 7 NFC |
1-3 | 7 | 7½ | -½ | Raiders, Steelers, Pats, Washington, Detroit, Carolina, NOLA |
0-4 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
This does seem to be what one would expect if the games were a coin flip on average, but the home team had an advantage. That advantage would push the records away from the extremes and towards 0.500.
Through week 4 the home team has a 33-31 record, so a coin flip where the home team had a ~52% chance of winning would explain the win-loss results. This isn't enough of an advantage for the home team to expain the lack of teams that are 4-0 and 0-4. In fact, we'd need the home team to have about a 75% chance to win (and every team to have played two home games) for tighten up using a weighted coin flip — and this still isn't enough to match the 2-2 records as well as the edges! With a 75% chance of winning at home the expected number of teams with each record (assuming 32 teams) is:
1⅛, 7½, 14¾, 7½, 1⅛
For context we can look at the distribution from previous seasons. As with 2022, teams with a tie are excluded. In addition, teams with a bye week (which typically begin with week 4) get their 4th game from the next week. Because of this exclusion, there may be a net gain or loss of wins (e.g. excluding two 1-2-1 teams will result in more wins than losses for the remaining teams). After four weeks of games, the distribution from previous seasons (excluding 2020 because of Covid) is this:
Record | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 4-0 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 1-3 | 0-4 | Comment |
Expected | 2 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 2 | (With all team records counting) |
2022 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 0 | Excluding Colts and Houston due to tie |
2021 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 2 | No ties |
2019 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 2 | Excluding Detroit and Arizona due to tie |
2018 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 4 teams excluded due to tie |
2017 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 4 | No ties |
The 2019 season pretty much follows a binomial distribution through the first four games.
2022 is quite unusual, however, in that it has only 1 team total at 4-0 and 0-4. The other four examined seasons have 3+ teams there. Examining just the 4-0 and 0-4 records by season we get this:
# of Teams | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 4-0 | 0-4 | ± vs binomial | |
2022 | 1 | 0 | --- | |
2021 | 1 | 2 | - | |
2019 | 3 | 2 | + | |
2018 | 2 | 1 | - | |
2017 | 1 | 4 | + | |
2016 | 2 | 1 | - | |
2015 | 5 | 1 | ++ | |
2014 | 0 | 2 | -- | |
2013 | 5 | 3 | ++++ | |
2012 | 3 | 2 | + | |
2011 | 2 | 4 | ++ | |
2010 | 0 | 4 | ||
2009 | 5 | 5 | ++++++ | |
2008 | 3 | 4 | +++ | |
2007 | 4 | 3 | +++ | |
2006 | 3 | 4 | +++ | |
2005 | 3 | 2 | + | |
2004 | 4 | 4 | ++++ | |
2003 | 5 | 3 | ++++ | |
2002 | 2 | 3 | + | |
2001 | 1 | 2 | - | |
2000 | 3 | 4 | +++++ |
The number of NFL teams with extreme good and extreme bad records after four games played is the lowest in 20 years at ... one, which is three below the expected four.
10-Oct-2022: After five weeks worth of games, the NFL's per-team win results vs binomial (assigning ties as 1/2 a game of win and 1/2 a game of loss) looks like this:
Wins | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wins | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Expected # of Teams | 1 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 |
Actual 2022 After 5 Games | 1 | 5 | 8½ | 12 | 5½ | 0 |
This is basically a binomial distribution!
Game 1 | 152 yards | 33 rushes |
Game 2 | 72 yards | 30 rushes |
Game 3 | 34 yards | 14 rushes |
Game 4 | 3 yards | 6 rushes |
Three rushing yards in an NFL game is ... low?
The most recent game with a team having two or fewer yards of rushing offense was the 2013 Miami Dolphins against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In that game the QB, Ryan Tannehill had two yards rushing on one attempt, Lamar Miller had two yards on seven rushes, Charles Clay had zero yards on two rushes and Daniel Thomas was -2 yards on four rushes.
Brady is playing fine: 68% completion percentage, 260 passing yards/game, 6 TDs, 1 Int). but having NO run game makes everything much more difficult for the offense. They have one back responsible for 72% of their rushes and 85% of their rushing yards. That seems ... pretty skewed?
11-Oct-2022: Game five rushing was 69 total yards on 23 carries, so a lot like game 2. After five games, the Bucs are 2nd worst in the NFL for team rushing (but also 3-2 and leading the NFC South by one game). The bottom teams in the NFL for rushing so far are these:
Team | Rushing Yards | Yards per Carry |
---|---|---|
Steelers | 443 | 3.9 |
Dolphins | 414 | 3.9 |
Buccaneers | 330 | 3.1 |
Rams | 312 | 3.2 |
The Buccaneers are the NFL worst in yards-per-carry and 2nd worst in total rushing yards. The total being low makes sense if the yards-per-carry is poor ... rushing a lot when averaging a bit over three yards per rush isn't going to win games.
Everything would be fine if it wasn't so bad.
— Ramzan Kadyrov (Chechen Warlord, age 46)
Notice the single 'I'. I am going to discuss HIT (High Intensity Training) rather than HIIT (High Intensity Interval Training).
So I've been watching exercise videos on Youtube. (These are separate from the music videos I tend to watch when I'm working out). Because I'm trying to incorporate more core exercises and also a bit of strength exercises.
And I tripped over one with the nice title of "The Worst Cardio Mistakes Everyone Makes For Fat Loss (Avoid These)" which isn't totally relevant because I figure weight loss is mostly from burning more calories than you consume, but still ... "Worst Cardio Mistakes" sounds like a good thing to know to avoid.
Item #3 was "Falling into the High Intensity Trap." Lord knows I don't want to do that!
So ... cardio seems to come in two flavors (or states):
- Low Intensity Steady State
- High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT)
This is fine with me, since I pretty much do the Steady State flavor: Get on a machine (stair master, elliptical, whatever) and settle in at a reasonable and sustainable 70% - 85% of my "max heart rate." I try not to exceed 85% of 'max heart rate' for very long because the goal is to be healthy, not to damage my heart and I don't have any specific goal in mind that would make me want to go to 90% or higher.
And then I noticed that my steady state for the ~1 hour cardio session is the "High Intensity" part of the HIIT mix of 20-30 seconds of high intensity followed by a few minutes to recover. After one hour on an elliptical machine my readouts look like this (usually a bit lower, but 800 calories/hour or more is pretty common):

85% of my max heartrate is 140 beats/minute. 131 means an average of 79% of max heartrate (with, obviously, some time higher and some lower).WTF?
I thought that my steady state was the 'baseline' bit and the high intensity bit would be pushing very hard for 20-30 seconds. Which I didn't want to do because I didn't want my heart rate up that high.
My wife apparently knew all this and just didn't see any particular reason to tell me that I was pretty much doing the 'HI' part for 60 minutes at a time ...
Yay, stairs ?!?!? Also, yay being clueless?
NOTE:
What is crazy, but typical, of exercise advice is that what heart rate you want to hit during the High Intensity part of HIIT is not consistent between folks writing about this (though 80% - 95% is pretty common while the American Heart Association specifies a max of 85%).
The American Heart Association says this:
Target heart rate during moderate intensity activities is about 50-70% of maximum heart rate, while during vigorous physical activity it's about 70-85% of maximum....Meanwhile, some quotes from sites near the top of a Google search for "hiit heart rate":
If you're just starting out, aim for the lower range of your target zone (50 percent) and gradually build up. In time, you'll be able to exercise comfortably at up to 85 percent of your maximum heart rate. Woo hoo!
As an alternative to moderate-intensity training, the concept of High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) is increasing in popularity, Dr. Tyree said. This involves exercise at high exertional levels, from 80 to 95% of maximal heart rate for short periods, followed by a recovery period that is usually 40 to 50% of maximal heart rate.and:
A good guideline is to strive for 70 to 90 percent of your maximal heart rate during the high-intensity sessions, and 55 to 65 percent during recovery, according to Len Kravitz, PhD, coordinator of exercise science at the University of Mexico and author of HIIT Your Limit.and:
The target heart rate zone of a HIIT workout is 80 to 95 percent of your maximum heart rate.and:
During your high-intensity work, you want to be working at 80 to 95 percent of your maximal heart rate...
19-Jan-2023:
I'm now sustaining a heart rate closer to 135-6 beats/minute over the hour. Today I spent 62:10 on the elliptical to burn ~900 calories with an average heart rate of 136. I am now also aware of
24-Jan-2023:
I paid more attention to hydration. It seems to help :-)
13-Feb-2023:
Well, now I've read up on "Zone 2" training and the Karvonen Formula for heart rate zones. Example, here: https://www.omnicalculator.com/sports/heart-rate-zone
I eventually wrote up what I think is going on here: Exercise Not Training
Calories | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Avg HR | Duration | Overall | 10 min | 30 min | 40 min | beats/cal |
18-Sep-2022 | 131 | 60:01 | 837 | 9.39 | |||
19-Jan-2023 | 136 | 62:10 | 900 | 160 | 455 | 9.39 | |
24-Jan-2023 | 135 | 60:50 | 900 | 455 | 605 | 9.13 | |
31-Jan-2023 | 131 | 61:50 | 900 | 165 | 447 | 595 | 9.00 |
16-Feb-2023 | 132 | 60:16 | 900 | 8.84 | |||
19-Feb-2023 | 134 | 60:00 | 904 | 462 | 609 | 8.89 | |
24-Feb-2023 | 138 | 60:00 | 931 | 160 | 479 | 633 | 9.20 |
8-Mar-2023 | 128 | 62:53 | 900 | 152 | 439 | 580 | 8.94 |
12-Mar-2023 | 130 | 60:00 | 914 | 163 | 472 | 619 | 8.53 |
16-Mar-2023 | 135 | 60:00 | 912 | 151 | 465 | 612 | 8.88 |
4-Apr-2023 | 107 | 60:02 | 780 | 8.24 | |||
25-Apr-2023 | 114 | 60:00 | 781 | 8.76 | |||
27-Apr-2023 | 113 | 60:00 | 782 | 8.67 | |||
7-May-2023 | 113 | 60:00 | 775 | 136 | 393 | 519 | 8.75 |
12-May-2023 | 115 | 60:00 | 799 | 136 | 405 | 8.64 | |
12-May-2023 | 111 | 60:00 | 770 | 131 | 390 | 8.65 | |
9-Jul-2023 | 129 | 60:00 | 865 | 149 | 443 | 585 | 8.90 |
30-Jul-2023 | 102 | 60:00 | 740 | 124 | 374 | 594 | 8.27 |
3-Aug-2023 | 107 | 60:00 | 758 | 129 | 8.47 | ||
18-Aug-2023 | 107 | 60:03 | 770 | 130 | 8.34 | ||
5-Sep-2023 | 138 | 60:00 | 917 | 161 | 469 | 619 | 9.03 |
24-Sep-2023 | 126 | 60:00 | 870 | 148 | 8.69 | ||
22-Oct-2023 | 110 | 60:00 | 769 | 8.58 | |||
26-Oct-2023 | 114 | 60:00 | 818 | 8.36 | |||
24-Dec-2023 | 135 | 60:00 | 902 | 159 | 461 | 609 | 8.98 |
28-Dec-2023 | 135 | 60:00 | 933 | 163 | 479 | 625 | 8.68 |
9-Jan-2024 | 137 | 60:00 | 941 | 167 | 488 | 641 | 8.74 |
12-Jan-2024 | 131 | 60:00 | 909 | 160 | 460 | 8.65 | |
11-Feb-2024 | 137 | 60:00 | 926 | 165 | 479 | 630 | 8.88 |
10-Mar-2024 | 134 | 45:00 | 694 | 8.69 | |||
16-Jul-2024 | 131 | 60:00 | 900 | 459 | 605 | 8.73 | |
25-Aug-2024 | 125 | 60:00 | 849 | 8.83 | |||
11-Oct-2024 | 107 | 60:00 | 785 | 392 | 8.18 | ||
9-Feb-2025 | 128 | 60:00 | 903 | 154 | 453 | 8.50 | |
18-Feb-2025 | 132 | 60:00 | 904 | 155 | 462 | 603 | 8.76 |
25-Feb-2025 | 129 | 60:00 | 888 | 8.72 | |||
4-Mar-2025 | 111 | 60:00 | 805 | 8.27 | |||
11-Mar-2025 | 129 | 60:00 | 900 | 8.60 | |||
20-Mar-2025 | 122 | 45:00 | 677 | 8.11 |
West | Source | ||
---|---|---|---|
Position | ESPN | Las Vegas | NBA GM's |
Boston (+550) | Milwaukee (43%) | ||
Milwaukee (+600) | |||
1 | Phoenix (49.0) | Golden State (+650) | Golden State (25%) |
2 | Denver (47.9) | LA Clippers (+700) | LA Clippers (21%) |
Brooklyn (+800) | |||
3 | New Orleans (47.6) | Phoenix (+1000) | |
Philadelphia (+1400) | |||
4 | Memphis (46.1) | LA Lakers (+1800) | |
Miami (+1800) | |||
5 | Minnesota (45.7) | Denver (+2000) | |
6 | LA Clippers (43.6) | Dallas (+2200) | |
7 | Dallas (43.1) | Memphis (+2500) | |
Cleveland (+3000) | |||
8 | Golden State (41.9) | Minnesota (+3000) | |
Toronto (+4000) | |||
9 | LA Lakers (36.8) | New Orleans (+4000) | |
Atlanta (+5000) | |||
Chicago (+6000) | |||
10 | Portland (36.6) | Portland (+10000) | |
Charlotte (+15000) | |||
NY Knicks (+20000) | |||
Washington (+20000) | |||
11 | Sacramento (36.5) | Sacramento (+25000) | |
Detroit (+50000) | |||
Indiana (+50000) | |||
Orlando (+50000) | |||
12 | Utah (34.9) | Utah (+50000) | |
13 | San Antonio (31.2) | San Antonio (+50000) | |
14 | Oklahoma City (26.9) | Oklahoma City (+50000) | |
15 | Houston (26.7) | Houston (+50000) |
So the NBA general managers believe that Golden State and the LA Clippers are the two NBA West teams most likely to win the 2022-23 championship as do the folks who bet on sports. ESPN thinks these two teams are #6 and #8 in the West!
Note that it is VERY rare for a team seeded any lower than 4th to win the championship, though, so Las Vegas and the GMs expecting Golden State and the LA Clippers to have good odds to win is not consistent with these two teams finishing 6th and 8th in the West.
Another way to look at this is that the ESPN computer sees only about 7 wins separating the projected #1 seed in the West, Phoenix, from the #8 seed, Golden State. In the 2021-22 season the difference between the best regular season team, Phoenix, and the #8 regular season team, New Orleans, was 28 games.
In other words, the 'expected wins' for each team should probably come with a ±15 range ... which makes the expected number of wins and the rank ordering meaningless!
14-May-2023:
Well, the Clippers finished in 5th place in the West and the Warriors finished in 6th place so the ESPN computer did pretty well there (though the basic point about the rank ordering range still holds).
The overall west rank ordering wasn't too bad, either. The actual top-10 teams were predicted by the ESPN computer to have order of:
4, 1, 9, 2, 8, 5, 11, 6, 7, 12
The magnitude of the rank order difference for each was thus:
3, 1, 6, 2, 5, 1, 4, 2, 2, 2
And the average error for each rank order was almost 3. So a prediction of
coming in 5th place should be treated as "somewhere between 2nd place and 8th place."
Going into the conference finals, the betting line for each surviving team to win the NBA championship are:
Team | Line |
---|---|
Boston | +105 |
Denver | +230 |
Lakers | +330 |
Miami | +1,400 |
Appalachian State delivered the first shocking result of the 2022 college football season.Appalachian State did beat Texas A&M 17-14, but one hour earlier Notre Dame lost to Marshall 26-21 at South Bend.
Notre Dame isn't supposed to lose to Marshall. Marshall was paid $1.25 million to come play Notre Dame in South Bend. Marshall plays in
11-Sep-2022: The lede has been changed (with no indication that it was every any different. Even the posted time for the article is unchanged):
Shortly after Marshall delivered the first shocking result of the 2022 college football season, Appalachian State followed suit with its own massive upset.
NCES | Cal DOE | ||
---|---|---|---|
Fall | Count | Count | Change |
1996 | 5,612,965 | ||
1997 | 5,727,303 | +114,338 | |
1998 | 5,844,111 | +116,808 | |
1999 | 6,038,589 | 5,951,612 | +107,501 |
2000 | 6,140,814 | 6,050,895 | +99,283 |
2001 | 6,247,726 | 6,147,375 | +96,480 |
2002 | 6,353,667 | 6,244,732 | +77,357 |
2003 | 6,413,867 | 6,298,783 | +54,051 |
2004 | 6,441,557 | 6,322,141 | +23,358 |
2005 | 6,437,202 | 6,312,436 | -9,705 |
2006 | 6,406,750 | 6,286,943 | -25,493 |
2007 | 6,343,471 | 6,275,469 | -11,474 |
2008 | 6,322,528 | 6,252,029 | -23,440 |
2009 | 6,263,438 | 6,192,121 | -59,908 |
2010 | 6,289,578 | 6,217,002 | +24,881 |
2011 | 6,287,834 | 6,220,993 | +3,991 |
2012 | 6,299,451 | 6,226,989 | +5,996 |
2013 | 6,312,623 | 6,236,672 | +9,683 |
2014 | 6,312,161 | 6,235,520 | -1,152 |
2015 | 6,305,347 | 6,226,737 | -8,783 |
2016 | 6,309,138 | 6,228,235 | +1,498 |
2017 | 6,304,266 | 6,220,413 | -7,822 |
2018 | 6,186,278 | -34,135 | |
2019 | 6,163,001 | -23,277 | |
2020 | 6,002,523 | -160,478 | |
2021 | 5,892,240 | -110,283 |
From Fall 2019, the year before Covid, to Fall 2021 California saw a public school K-12 enrollment dropoff of 270,000. This is unprecedented. The previous largest 2-year dropoff was between Fall 2005 and Fall 2007 of about 90,000.
Sources:
- CDE numbers:
https://edsource.org/2022/california-k-12-enrollment-plunges-again-falls-below-6-million/670111
https://www.cde.ca.gov/sp/ps/cefprivinstr.asp
https://dq.cde.ca.gov/dataquest/dqcensus/EnrAgeGrd.aspx?cds=00&agglevel=state&year=20XX-YY
- NCES numbers sources:
https://nces.ed.gov/programs/quarterly/Vol_3/3_2/q2-6.asp
https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_203.20.asp
https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2018/2018019.pdf
https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2017/2017094.pdf
https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2021/2021009.pdf
2022-23 DoE enrollment: 5,852,544
Richard's Rainwater
12 pack of 16 oz cans for $19.99Heart Water
1 six pack of 16 oz cans for $35.Columbia Empire Farms Oregon Rain Water
$2.99 for a 16.9 oz bottle.
The headline is true, but the implied causality isn't. Kelloggs is doing fine financially:
Year | Profits |
---|---|
2018 | $1.3B |
2019 | $0.9B |
2020 | $1.3B |
2021 | $1.5B |
Covid can be clearly seen in 2019, but profits are growing. What isn't growing is cereal sales. From the linked post:
A year ago, Kellogg cereal teamed up with the Gay Mafia — GLAAD — to introduce a new product aimed at grooming kids at breakfast. As Tony the Tiger now says, "They're gaaaaaaaaaaaay!"Except Kelloggs isn't "falling apart" in the sense that there is anything financially wrong with the company. Profits are up! What is happening is that the company is spinning off its breakfast cereal division (and its fake meat division, too — the corporate breakup is into three pieces). But as with Gillette the sequence is:
They called it Together.
A year later, Kellogg is falling apart after 128 years in business.
Kellogg will spin off its North American cereal division, which was its only product when the company began in 1894.
Cereal sales have stagnated for Kellogg, hence the Hail Mary gay promotion. (I always had my suspicions about Froot Loops.) Less than 20% of its revenues come from North American cereal.
(underlining added by me)
- Become sad with financials
- Run an overtly political ad campaign
- Accept reality
- Things are going fine
- Run an overtly political ad campaign
- Ooops
The year is 2063.
The global currency is Moosecoin.
You're refused entry into the Metaverse's Lambo club because your Twitter profile picture is not enclosed in an icosahedron.
In a desperate bid to hold onto a square of pixels, or "land", you bought in "Elontopia", you must pay rent to Paris Hilton, who bought $17 billion worth of "real estate" with a picture of a monkey in 2033, and in a bid to become immortal, has since replaced all of her organs with bionic hardware, each limb operated by its own separate smart contract.
Citizens who hold 'Sliving' tokens now have voting rights on her every move - from cooking mediocre lasagnes to overthrowing what is left of democracy.
Jobs are obsolete and by the time you get to the MetaWalmart, Moosecoin has crashed
—Web3.0: A Libertarian Dystopia
Captains seem to be assigned to do one of the following:
- Command a Navy cruiser or larger ship
- Command a ballistic missile submarine, or a squadron of attack submarines
- Command a Naval Air Wing based on an Aircraft Carrier or amphibious assault vessel
- Command a shore-based installation such as a base or Naval school, be in a senior staff leadership positions in some context
- 21 cruisers (all Ticonderogas, I think)
11 aircraft carriers - 7 Wasp class amphibious assault ships
2 America class amphibious assault ships - 18 Ohio class ballistic missile submarines
- 14 attack submarine squadrons
- 9 carrier based air wings [Yes, more carriers than air wings!]
The Navy has 40+ shore bases.
Navy SEALs are organized into four groups (2 - 4 teams each) and each group has a Navy captain in charge.
This works out to about 150 slots.
The rest seem to be things such as running logistics organizations, overseeing new weapons programs being developed, cyber war and staff positions (e.g. assistant to an admiral).
So the average Navy captain might spend 1 - 2 years actually commanding a ship.
Ford has a stock calculator that takes into account dividends if desired. Here:
From Jun 11, 2002 through today (20 years) the total return of Ford was ... 33%. Or 1.44% per year. Nominal.
If we roll this back to Jun 11, 1992 (so 30 years) then the total nominal return over the 30 years is ... -50%. After accounting for dividends.
From Jun 11, 1982 ... also -50%. Again, accounting for dividends. In real terms we should account for 3x inflation so the -50% turns into a -83% in real terms. After dividends.
Ford has done some stock buybacks, but not many. And mostly to counteract stock *issuance*. I can't find any spinoffs, though Ford has sold divisions/brands for cash ... but that cash would show up in Ford's performance.
So ... iconic American company has lost 50% of its nominal value over the past 40 years. And is roughly flat over the past 20 years.

In any event, this is mostly backstory.
The interesting part is that E-Type worked with a female vocalist, Nana Hedin, a lot from the mid-90s to the mid-2000s.
She sings well (according to folks who have opinions) but is kinda ... heavy. So not quite the "look" one hopes for in a pop female vocalist — this isn't opera.
The solution was to bring in a lithe younger lady who's job was to wear little clothing and gyrate on stage. While lip-syncing.
So far no huge surprise.
The neat thing, though, was that no one pretended otherwise. The songs credited the lady doing the vocals and E-type didn't hide that the dancer was lip syncing.
Nana Hedin | Dee Demirbag (right) |
---|---|
![]() |
![]() |
Kinda neat, I think, to realize that for the performance you need the singing and you "need" the minimal clothes dancing but they DON'T NEED TO BE THE SAME PERSON AND YOU DON'T EVEN NEED TO PRETEND.
Now I'm wondering if this is unusual (the not pretending) or is fairly common ...
In the United States, the World Bank downgraded growth prospects for 2022 to 2.6% from the 3.8% it expected in its January forecast.Meanwhile, the BEA from Apr 28:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2022.Applying a little algebra:
(-1.4 * 3x)/4 = 2.6; x ~= 4%
The World Bank expects US Apr-Dec GDP growth of almost 4% annualized.
This is good to know!
Well, 2022 GDP numbers for America are in and the quarterly (annualized) growth values were: -1.6%, -0.6%, +3.2%, +2.6% for an overall annual GDP growth of a bit under +1%. Not quite the +2.6% (or +3.8%) that was expected by the World Bank.
Note that the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) decided that the US was not in a recession after the first half of 2022.
2023 began with annualized quarterly GDP growth of: +2% and +2.4%.
Russia wants to win over its foreign customers not just when it comes to next-generation fighter jets, like the infamous Checkmate, but also when it comes to commercial airliners. The future Sukhoi Superjet (SSJ)-New will boast more than 90% Russian-made parts, including the PD-8 engine, and will also come with an advanced system of logistical support, hoping to achieve record-breaking sales on foreign markets.I'm thinking that those hoped for "record-breaking sales on foreign markets" are going to take longer than desired given the Russian invasion of Ukraine and poor reactions to the invasion in the wealthy (European, American, Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese, ...) markets.
Tesla:
- Revenue: $62B
- Income: $8B
- Cash: $17B
- Liabilities: $31B (short: $20B, long: $11B)
- Market Cap: $700B
- Vehicles sold: ~0.9M (worldwide)
- Revenue: $134B
- Income: $11B
- Cash: $50B
- Liabilities: $208B (short: $91B, long $117B)
- Market Cap: $50B
- Vehicles sold: ~3.9M (worldwide)
It took me 73 minutes.
[Life Fitness PowerMill Climber: 16.25 steps/flight, 7.5" step height (so ~10' per floor)]
Date | Flights | Time | Calories | Average heart rate | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
31-May-2022: | 225 | 73:00 | Baseline! | ||
18-Dec-2022: | 225 | 62:06 | ~920 | 136 beats/minute. | |
8-Jan-2023: | 210 | 60:15 | ~860 | 139 beats/minute. | |
30-Jan-2023: | 225 | 61:40 | ~924 | 136 beats/minute. | 902 calories @ 60:00 mark! |
5-Feb-2023: | 218 | 61:41 | ~900 | 138 beats/minute. | |
19-Mar-2023: | 212 | 60:00 | ~874 | 136 beats/minute. | |
02-Jul-2023: | 225 | 60:00 | 900 | 134 beats/minute. | I weigh less than in January |
13-Jul-2023: | 228 | 60:00 | 912 | 142 beats/minute. | Worse than 02-July & HR too high |
18-Jul-2023: | 151 | 40:00 | ~600 | 134 beats/minute. | Hills: all at level 6 |
25-Jul-2023: | 240 | 60:25 | 955 | 136 beats/minute. | Hills: ½ @ level 6, ½ @ level 7 |
14-Dec-2023: | 210 | 60:00 | 865 | 130 beats/minute. | Level: 40m @ level 6, 20m @ level 5 |
21-May-2024: | 210 | 60:00 | 873 | 131 beats/minute. | Level: 40m @ level 6, 20m @ level 5 |

- Rent Estimate: $4,800 (per month, I presume)
- Refi Estimate: $12,466/month
A rental market where the landlord expects to lose $100,000+ per year?
This is according to analysts at Mercury Research, which said on Wednesday that AMD's x86 market share reached 27.7 percent against Intel in the first quarter of 2022.Your mission is to solve these equations:
...
In servers, AMD's share grew 2.7 points year-over-year to 11.6 percent
...
For laptops, AMD's share leaped 4.4 points year-over-year to 22.5 percent.
...
AMD's desktop share was 18.3 percent..."
— https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/13/amd_intel_x86/
a*11.6 + b*22.5 + c*18.3 = 27.7
a + b + c = 1.0; a <= 0, b <= 0, b <= 0
Which will show how market shares of 11.6%, 22.5% and 18.3% can somehow work out to an overall market share of 27.7%.
Well ... Naomi Judd just died and Google provides this helpful "People also ask" suggestion:
What did Naomi Judd dye from?
Sigh.
Lets all play to the stereotypes, people!
So 14% down from the peak.
The S&P 500 opened the year at 4,797 so the decline from peak and the yearly loss are basically the same.
The Dow Jones average is basically 37,000 -> 33,000, so ~11% down from peak.
Nasdaq is down more :-) 16,200 -> 12,330, so down around 24%.
Peak | Curret | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL | 183 | → | 158 | -14% |
MSFT | 349 | → | 277 | -21% |
GOOG | 3,042 | → | 2,300 | -25% |
KLAC | 457 | → | 319 | -30% |
AMZN | 3,773 | → | 2,485 | -35% |
FB | 384 | → | 200 | -48% |
NFLX | 700 | → | 190 | -73% |
I'm going to float the idea that Apple is not a "tech" company in the way that Google, Facebook, Amazon and KLA are. It certainly moves differently. And, realistically, is more a lifestyle/consumer-electronics company than the others. The fact that it has a pretty good operating system, an awesome CPU/GPU design team and fantastic hardware is kinda a minor detail.
Salary cap data (which is basically 47% - 48% of league revenue divided up evenly between the 32 NFL teams) is:
Year | Cap | Comment |
---|---|---|
2011 | $120M | Kaepernick's 1st NFL season |
2012 | $120M | |
2013 | $123M | |
2014 | $133M | |
2015 | $143M | |
2016 | $155M | Kaepernick's last NFL season |
2017 | $167M | |
2018 | $177M | |
2019 | $188M | |
2020 | $198M | |
2021 | $182M | Covid related drop |
2022 | $208M |
The salary cap is set yearly based on the previous year's revenue (e.g. the 2022 cap was set in March of 2022 though the NFL 2022 season won't begin until the fall of 2022). The 2011 cap was set just before Kaepernick entered the league and the 2017 cap was set after Kaepernick's last (kneeling) season.
From 2011 - 2017 the cap went up from $120M to $167M, a gain of 40% over six years. This works out to about a 5% - 6% annualized increase over those years.
From 2017 - 2022 the cap went up from $167M to $208, a gain of 25% over five years. This works out to about a 4% - 5% annualized increase over those five years.
It is going to be difficult to convince anyone that the NFL salary cap would have gone up by one percentage point more if only Kaepernick hadn't knelt during the national anthem. Partially because the year-to-year variation is much higher than 1% but primarily because the difference seems to be that in the three years leading up to the Covid drop in 2021 the cap was adding about $10M per year ($167M → $177M → $198M), but in the two years after that the cap went up only $10M total rather than $10M per year.
If the 2022 cap was $10M higher, which is seems likely without Covid, then the five years after Kaepernick would see the cap increase from $167M to $218M for a gain of 30% over five years which works out to about a 5% - 6% annualized increase — pretty much the same as the pre-kneeling years.
Previous "Get Woke, Go Broke" entries: (NFL Salary Cap by season from sportac: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cba/)
In the United States, many vodkas are made from 95% pure grain alcohol produced in large quantities by agricultural-industrial giants Archer Daniels Midland, Grain Processing Corporation, and Midwest Grain Products (MGP). Bottlers purchase the base spirits in bulk, then filter, dilute, distribute and market the end product under a variety of vodka brand names.From Wikipedia.
Sigh.
Much of the bottled water is from the tap.
Many of the designer shirts are produced for $2/each or less and the value is in the logo.
And now this ...
Clearly for a number of products the VALUE isn't in the product itself but in the advertising campaign.
Not really news, but ... sigh.
Egypt is an especially clear case of a poor country overrunning its ability to feed itself.
In Roman times Egypt is estimated to have had a population of between 4 and 8 million and Egypt was a net exporter of food, specifically grain, to Rome. Today Egypt is a net importer of food and will starve without lots of imports.
The reason is that Egypt is a fairly large country but has very little arable land and the population has grown substantially since Roman times.
Egypt's arable land is almost entirely within the delta region where the Nile flows out to the Mediterranean Sea and a few miles on each side of the Nile. The delta region is about 8,000 square miles and the Nile from Aswan to the Mediterranean is about 1,000 miles so 2 miles on each side adds 4,000 more square miles of arable land.
This gives a total of 12,000 miles of arable land, which is pretty comparable to what was present in Roman times.
The "catch" is that because the Nile floods every year (and this flooding is now controlled by the Aswan dam) the fertility of the land has been high for millenia — modern agricultural practices can improve things, but not as much as they improve things in most other farming areas.
The Egyptian population in 2022 is about 100,000,000, up about 16× from Roman times. The arable land hasn't grown so Egypt is now trying to feed 16× the population on the same land.
If we consider population size together with the arable land area we get
- 12,000 square miles of arable land in Egypt, about ⅓
more than the total land area of Vermont (9,000 square miles).
- 100 million Egyptians to feed.
- Which works out to about 8,300 Egyptians to feed per square mile of arable land.
- Which works out to about 13 Egyptians to feed per acre of arable land.
- Iowa has about 26 million acres of farmland. Feeding 13 people
per acre would be equivalent to Iowa providing enough food to
feed the entire United States.
In 1960 Egypt was food sufficient.
In the town of Baarle-Nassau there is a line on the floor. If you're on one side of this line you're in the Netherlands with its fancy windmills. If you're on the other you're in Belgium with its convenient access to German armies ...
The researchers found before 90 BCE the denarius was composed of pure silver, but that dropped 10 percent only five years later.So in the ancient world 11% inflation over five years (so about 2% per year) suggested a "sever currency crisis". Today this is what the US and European central bank are hoping to achieve :
"The denarius first dropped to under 95 percent fine, and then it fell again to 90 percent, with some coins as low as 86 percent, suggesting a severe currency crisis," concludes University of Liverpool archeologist Matthew Ponting.
—An Ancient Financial Crisis Has Been Discovered... in Roman Coins
The Federal Reserve adopted average inflation targeting as part of its long-run monetary strategy framework in 2020. This strategy allows inflation to rise and fall such that it averages 2% over time.
—Average Inflation Targeting in the Financial Crisis Recovery
Last four seasons AD games played:
- 2018-19: 56 out of 82 games (68%)
- 2019-20: 62 out of 71 games (87%)
- 2020-21: 36 out of 72 games (50%)
- 2021-22: 38 out of 78 games (49%) -- 4 games left
I do wonder whether the LA Lakers thought about AD's injury potential when they signed him.
There are four kinds of countries in the world:—Simon Kuznets (maybe, but who cares!)
- developed countries,
- undeveloped countries,
- Japan and
- Argentina
Nuclear explosions can cause significant damage and casualties from blast, heat, and radiation but you can keep your family safe by knowing what to do and being prepared if it occurs.(Underlining added by me)
A nuclear weapon is a device that uses a nuclear reaction to create an explosion.
Nuclear devices range from a small portable device carried by an individual to a weapon carried by a missile.
A nuclear explosion may occur with or without a few minutes warning.
Fallout is most dangerous in the first few hours after the detonation when it is giving off the highest levels of radiation. It takes time for fallout to arrive back to ground level, often more than 15 minutes for areas outside of the immediate blast damage zones. This is enough time for you to be able to prevent significant radiation exposure by following these simple steps:
GET INSIDEGet inside the nearest building to avoid radiation. Brick or concrete are best.
Remove contaminated clothing and wipe off or wash unprotected skin if you were outside after the fallout arrived. Hand sanitizer does not protect against fall out. Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth, if possible. Do not use disinfectant wipes on your skin.
Go to the basement or middle of the building. Stay away from the outer walls and roof. Try to maintain a distance of at least six feet between yourself and people who are not part of your household. If possible, wear a mask if you’re sheltering with people who are not a part of your household. Children under two years old, people who have trouble breathing, and those who are unable to remove masks on their own should not wear them.
—https://www.ready.gov/nuclear-explosion

The 49ers are just sucking them in. Now <opponent> is overconfident.In the NFC divisional round the 49ers did just that against Green Bay. At the end of the 1st quarter the 49ers:
- Had run nine plays in three series (three 3-and-out series)
- For a total of -7 yards
- With two sacks
- ... three incomplete passes
- ... and four rushes for seven yards total
More amazingly, the 49ers won 13-10.
"... [I] will attempt to reproduce this on my end. The fix was to enable AMP
with multisession. The setting of mixed_precision policy was the one causing
the trouble. By Moving it within unet_inference() fn which gets threaded through
workerpool implementation , the issue was gone for multisession. We are yet
to validate the correctness of this approach."
Prior to last night there had been 12 teams that had won the whole thing over 23 years. Now there are 13 teams over 24 years.
In addition, the SEC has had more distinct schools win the whole thing than any other conference:
- Alabama
- Auburn
- Florida
- Georgia
- LSU
- Tennessee
I looked at the winners of each of the Power5 conferences over the past 12 years to see how concentrated the winners were. The Power5 conferences are listed below, with a histogram of the number of times each team has won (ranked most to least and with zero omitted).
Conf A: | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
Conf B: | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
Conf C: | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Conf D: | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
Conf E: | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Because the histograms are VERY similar and the SEC doesn't stand out in any way, it isn't obvious which conference is the SEC.
We can also look at the National Champion by conference to see which conference are the most lopsided. I'll go back to when the BCS started (conference letters here do NOT correspond to conference letters above):
Conf a: | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
Conf b: | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
Conf c: | 1 | 1 | ||||
Conf d: | 2 | |||||
Conf e: | 2 |
I'll note that the SEC is the most *balanced* conference as no other conference has more than three national champions. The SEC has five! [Okay, maybe this isn't the right way to do things ...]
BEFORE the BCS and then the playoffs, the champions for the previous ten years included:
- Michigan
- Nebraska x3
- Florida
- Florida State
- Alabama
- Washington
- Miami (FL) x2
- Notre Dame
- Colorado
- Georgia Tech
Prior to the playoffs, two really good teams might not meet at all — which would give voters the chance to vote more highly for the weaker team. The playoffs basically don't give those teams anywhere to hide.
Without the playoffs, Michigan would have faced Utah in the Rose Bowl and Alabama would have faced Baylor. If Michigan (#2) had blown out Utah and Alabama (#1) had beaten Baylor by only a little bit, some votes might well have gone to Michigan. As things stand, Michigan had to play an SEC team and there was no ambiguity ...
I expect that the SEC would continue to be ranked highly as a whole, which would give the SEC champion an edge in the rankings, but the playoffs really don't seem to be helping the other conferences ...
To restore "balance" we must eliminate the college playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!!
2021: | Spider-Man: No Way Home | sequel |
2020: | Demon Slayer: Mugen Train | |
2019: | Avengers: Endgame | sequel (MCU) |
2018: | Avengers: Infinity War | sequel (MCU) |
2017: | Star Wars: The Last Jedi | sequel |
2016: | Captain America: Civil War | sequel (MCU) |
2015: | Star Wars: The Force Awakens | sequel |
2014: | Transformers: Age of Extinction | sequel |
2013: | Frozen | |
2012: | The Avengers | sequel (MCU) |
2011: | Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (2) | sequel |
2010: | Toy Story 3 | sequel |
2009: | Avatar | |
2008: | The Dark Knight | sequel (DCU) |
2007: | Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End | sequel |
2006: | Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest | sequel |
2005: | Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire | sequel |
2004: | Shrek 2 | sequel |
2003: | Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | sequel |
2002: | Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers | sequel |
2001: | Harry Potter and the Philosher's Stone |
A grand total of four non-sequels:
- Three animated movies (Demon Slayer: Mugen Train, Frozen, Avatar)
- One live-action movie (Harry Potter)
So ... salary or savings have numbers attached to them, but we don't numerically keep track of things such as "our spare time" or "time spent with spouse" or "time spent with kids."
I expect that the tradeoff of time/effort spent acquiring money vs time/effort spent with growing children would be clearer if people tracked the time/effort spent on/with kids. And bragged about it. And got clear status benefit from it in a way that one gets clear status benefit from driving a nicer car.
But we DON'T quantify the value of time spent maintaining/growing social bonds while we DO quantify the value of time spent working because that time results in dollars.
This doesn't mean, though, that the time/effort that we don't track as carefully and that we can't brag about isn't valuable. It just means that seeing the tradeoff with money is harder.
Athletic director Trev Alberts said he has seen enough progress in the once-proud program to merit bringing back Frost, who goes into next year with four straight losing seasons at his alma mater. The Cornhuskers are 15-27 and have never finished higher than fifth in the Big Ten West under Frost. The Huskers are 3-7 overall and 1-6 in Big Ten games this season but haven't lost by more than nine points with one of the toughest schedules in the country.
From 2008-2014 Nebraska was coached by Bo Pelini. Over those seven seasons Nebraska went 67-27 and never went worse than 9-4 (never worse than 5-3 in Big 10 play).
Pelini was fired for not winning the "games that mattered" (and never winning in a Big 10 conference championship ...).
His replacement lasted three years and went 6-7, 9-4 and 4-8.
It will be interesting to watch Nebraska football next season.
Nebraska managed to go 3-9 in 2021. So after four seasons the current coach's results and salary have been:
2018: | 4-8 | $5 million |
2019: | 5-7 | $5 million |
2020: | 3-5 | $5 million |
2021: | 3-9 | $5 million |
Nebraska did manage a streak of losing by 9 points or fewer (8 points or fewer when not playing Ohio State) for the entire year. Their losses were by:
8, 7, 3, 3, 7, 5, 9, 7, 7
So we are looking at a lot of consistency here.
One interesting factoid about his contract is that it was initially 7 years @ $5 million year fully guaranteed.
If Nebraska fired him after this season, they'd still have owed him $15 million.
The restructure is that he gets paid $4 million in 2022 (down from the original $5 million) AND if he fails to meet certain metrics then Nebraska can fire him and only be on the hook for $7.5 million. Another bad season with the current coach saves Nebraska $3.5 million ($1 million this year and a buyout of $7.5 million vs $10 million) plus not needing to pay a second coaches salary for that year, so maybe $10 million total? I don't know if this amount of money is important to Nebraska football boosters.
The team released a number of offensive coaches. The catch is that Nebraska is 4th in the Big-10 by points scored per game, but 8th in points allowed so I'm not sure how this is going to be the key.
Another way to look at things, though, is that Nebraska scored 30 points or more in only two games: against Fordham (FCS) and Northwestern (3-8). So maybe Nebraska is going to need to be able to score 30+ points at least OCCASIONALLY if they want to win in the Big-10.
Nebraska never got blown out. They gave up more than 30 points only once and that was 35 ... and the defense gave up only 28 because 7 points were scored on a kickoff return plus extra point.
11-Sep-2022: Well, three games into the 2022 season and Mr. Frost is unemployed. Nebraska continued where it left off in the previous season by losing to Northwestern by three points, beating FCS North Dakota, and then losing by three points to Georgia Southern.
It seems that consistently losing by a single score wasn't enough this year.
18-Sep-2022: The offensive coaches released before this season included:
- Matt Lubick, offensive coordinator/wide receivers coach
- Greg Austin, offensive line coach/run game coordinator
- Ryan Held, running backs coach
- Mario Verduzco, quarterbacks coach
Opponent | Yards Allowed | Points Allowed |
Northwestern | 528 | 31 |
North Dakota (FCS) | 437 | 17 |
Georgia Southern | 575 | 45 |
Oklahoma | 580 | 49 |
Last season the defense never gave up more than 28 points. This season the defense has given up 30+ points to every FBS opponent Nebraska has faced.
Only three FBS teams have given up more yards per game: Bowling Green, Akron and Charlotte.
Only 18 FBS teams have given up more points per game. Only two of those 18 teams are in Power-5 conferences: Colorado and North Carolina State.
"Not all of us chase the latest and greatest though. I kept my last tv for 6 years."
[The Enterprise has encountered an unknown, but extremely large and powerful alien starship.] | |
Uhura: | The alien is hailing us, sir. They have some sort of universal translator. |
Kirk: | Lieutenant Uhura, put them on screen. |
Alien: | Greetings from the Exoliath Protectorate. We do not wish to burn your planet to ash, kill all the adult males, take your adult females as our own and use your non-adults for food. |
Kirk: | Uhura? Is that an accurate translation, do you think? |
Uhura: | I think so sir. They also sent a version in their language. We would translate the last part as: "We come in peace." |
There have been many poorly designed weapons, but none of them reached production levels of the Nambu Type 94, produced in 1935-1945. It was a truly terrible pistol and yet it was widely used by the Imperial Japanese Army during the Second World War. But why? And what exactly qualifies the Nambu Type 94 as one of the worst handguns in the history of the world?Payoff (different site) ...
[Downed Japanese] Airman First Class Shigenori Nishikaichi was able to take hostages and briefly gain control of the island. But the expected Japanese submarine rescue never materialized, and after Nishikaichi threatened to shoot the hostages, one of the Hawaiians, Benehakaka Kanahele, lunged at him. The pilot shot Kanahele 3 times with his sidearm, angering him ...
The US Navy also has about 250 ships:
- 11 aircraft carriers
- 68 submarines
- 31 amphibious warfare ships
- :
And a few weeks back a $3B Seawolf class submarine seems to have run into an undersea mountain. Bad for the submarine and the commanding officer has been relieved of command.
The odd bit to me is that the CO was *not* a captain. His rank was commander (O-5).
The Seaworld submarines are the most expensive US Navy ships after the aircraft carriers.
So you have your 12th most expensive piece of equipment being commanded by a guy who is outranked by over 3,000 captain ranked folks (and some admirals, too, but admirals don't command individual ships ...)
So: Huh?
You don't have all your ships at sea at once, so the navy has fewer than 10 ships costing $3B or more operating at any one time. And you give command to a guy who hasn't made captain when you have about 3,000 captains available ...
Why? What are the captains doing that is more important than commanding a ship? I suspect that a similar question could be asked for the Army. What do the colonels do that isn't commanding regiments (or regiment sized units)?
"The company [Uber] reported its first adjusted EBITDA profit of $8 million for the quarter.So profitable if we exclude $2.4B in losses!
:
The company's net loss of $2.4 billion was..."
Craft | Volume | Notes |
---|---|---|
Mercury: | 1.7 m3 | Passenger Volume |
Gemini: | 2.6 m3 | Passenger Volume |
Honda Civic: | 2.7 m3 | Passenger Volume |
Apollo: | 6.2 m3 | Pressurized Volume |
Orion: | 9.0 m3 | Habitable volume |
SpaceX Crew Dragon: | 9.3 m3 | Pressurized Volume |
Boeing Starliner: | 11 m3 | |
Boeing 7871: | 343 m3 | Passenger volume |
Skylab: | 352 m3 | |
Mir: | 350 m3 | |
ISS: | 388 m3 | Habitable volume |
2,000 ft2 House: | 445 m3 | 8 foot ceilings |
Orbital Reef: | 830 m3 | |
SpaceX Starship: | 1,100 m3 | |
2,100 m3 |
- 2.3m high × 5.5m wide × 43m long: 343m3
Generally, I don't think it's terrible for the kids. It's just a model of parenting that a) is insane and b) cannot conceivably be emulated by most of the population.The topic and context are irrelevant. To me this just sounds a bit like me on various topics
Friend's Wife: There is that ranch up in Gualala, near the sea. What is it's name?This was the name she was trying to remember. She did not hit me.
Me: ...
Me: Sea Ranch?
Commenter #1: | xxx is (wittingly or not) guilty of the classic issue of overinterpreting
change-in-rate stats It's like when shark attack deaths increase from 2
to 8 in a given year and the newspapers say "SHARK KILLINGS INCREASE 400%!" |
Me: | When, of course, the accurate headline would be: SHARK KILLINGS INCREASE 300%! |
Commenter #1: | f*cking chr*st I promise I know the difference between 300% and 400% :( |
Me: | 100%, right??????? :-) |
Commenter #2: | I was fine right up till this one and now I long for death |
Petersen, who now works full-time writing a paid subscription newsletter for the online platform Substack, spoke to me over Zoom from a small island off the coast of Washington State, west of her home in Missoula, Montana.The Pacific Ocean is about 500 miles west of Missoula ... :-)
I think a European equivalent would be:
"... spoke to me over Zoom from the Orkney Islands, north of her home in London."
My son is looking for a studio apartment around USC, and one that he applied for a couple days ago told us that the owner wanted 6 months rent up front (after he and I both paid app fees). No wonder people fucking hate landlords and the management companies that facilitate themAmazing!
When the landlords expect the government to permit renters to not pay a monthly rent then the landlords insist on getting paid up front.

Our air quality is "good" today, though at the high end of good. I can't tell if the mask was for smoke from the fires (maybe the person is extra sensitive) or for Covid.
Editor/IDE | Size | Comment | |
---|---|---|---|
Atom | 658 | MB | JavaScript/Electron |
Visual Studio Code | 290 | MB | JavaScript/Electron |
Eclipse | 277 | MB | Java |
jEdit | 34 | MB | Java |
TextEdit | 5 | ½ MB | Objective-C |
vim | 2 | MB | C? |
vi (80386) | ⅙ MB | C; http://ex-vi.sourceforge.net/ |
I will concede that VSCode does more than Vi, Vim and even TextEdit. And the "sizes" here may contain support files (e.g. help), but still ...
JEdit is written in Java (and probably ships a JRE). VSCode is about 8x *that* size and even larger than Eclipse!
I'm wondering how long before we have a commonly used text editor that takes up 1 GB. Containerizing will probably help :-)
Atom row added 28-Jun-2022.

It seems ridiculous that California can't prevent the state from buring to the ground each autumn and creating air quality issues, but that seems to be the case. At least we can keep the indoor air quality acceptable until we move (if we move).
Jurassic Sands was founded in 1991 with a simple goal. Even 27 years later we still continue to provide only all-natural play sands that are the safest, cleanest, and purest sands on the market. Our sands have won 3 National Awards: the Early Childhood 'Director's Choice Award, the Hobby industry's Best New Product Award and our sandbox was voted 'Most Fun Hands-Activity' by 40,000 attendees at The Kids Fair.One quart of the sandbox sand goes for $9.95. 50 pounds goes for $69.95.
Our specialty's include play sand for sensory bins, sand and water tables, sand boxes, therapy sand trays, making Native American rock art and sand paintings, and substrates for aquariums and reptiles like bearded dragons and geckos.
Our sands were present when dinosaurs walked the Earth, helped Native Americans tell stories, and can now be experienced by all. We never rush mother nature, all our sands are formed from natural errosion and are never crushed or pulverized. Jurassic Sands was created and continues to operate because we truly believe in the developmental, sensory, and social sand play benefits for children.
Home Depot sells 50 pounds of play sand ("great for children's sand boxes") from Pavestone for $3.48.
Home Depot also sells 50 pounds of play sand ("ideal for sandboxes") from Sakrete for $5.67.
If these seems unacceptable then Home Depot also has 50 pounds of Baha play sand for $52.26. The Baha play sand is supposed to be better for building sand castles.
The GAO report noted the 'technical challenges' [in the Blue Origin supplied BE-4 rocket engine] were related to 'the igniter and booster capabilities required'...So the BE-4 rocket engine is having problems turning on and running ...
Chemical rocket launches are still plausible for Super-Earths <=10M⊕, but become unrealistic for more massive planets. On worlds with a surface gravity of > 10 Earth gravities, a sizable fraction of the planet would need to be used up as chemical fuel per launch, limiting the total number of flights.
—Spaceflight from Super Earths is Difficult

It has not always been this way.
The first BCS national championship game was played in January of 1999 between Tennessee (SEC) and Florida State (ACC). The four games between 2000 and 2003, however, included no SEC teams. In 2004, LSU (SEC) made an appearance, coached by Nick Saban, but then the SEC was missing again until 2007 when Florida made an appearance. All three SEC teams won their games, but the conference itself appeared in "only" three of nine championship games from 1999 to 2007.
2007 was a watershed year, however. The SEC went on to appear in the BCS championship game and subsequent national championship game of the BCS in all but one year following 2007:
Year | SEC Team | Result |
---|---|---|
2007 | Florida (SEC East) | Florida beat Ohio State (Big-10) |
2008 | LSU (SEC West) | LSU beat Ohio State (Big-10) |
2009 | Florida (SEC East) | Florida beat Oklahoma (Big-12) |
2010 | Alabama (SEC West) | Alabama beat Texas (Big-12) |
2011 | Auburn (SEC West) | Auburn beat Oregon (Pac-10) |
2012 | Alabama (SEC West) | Alabama beat LSU (SEC West) |
2013 | Alabama (SEC West) | Alabama beat Notre Dame (Independent) |
2014 | Auburn (SEC West) | Auburn LOST to Florida State (ACC) |
2015 | Ohio State (Big-10) beat Oregon (Pac-12) | |
2016 | Alabama (SEC West) | Alabama beat Clemson (ACC) |
2017 | Alabama (SEC West) | Alabama lost to Clemson (ACC) |
2018 | Alabama (SEC West) | Alabama beat Georgia (SEC East) |
2019 | Alabama (SEC West) | Alabama lost to Clemson (ACC) |
2020 | LSU (SEC West) | LSU beat Clemson (ACC) |
2021 | Alabama (SEC West) | Alabama beat Ohio State (Big-10) |
Conference | Appearances | Record |
---|---|---|
SEC West | 13 | 9-4 |
ACC | 5 | 3-2 |
Big-10 | 4 | 1-3 |
SEC East | 3 | 2-1 |
Big-12 | 2 | 0-2 |
Pac-12 | 2 | 0-2 |
Notre Dame | 1 | 0-1 |
Nick Saban became Alabama's head coach in the 2007 season (Jan 2008 championship). Two years later Alabama won the national championship, beating Texas. Alabama has been in eight of 12 NCAA national championship games starting in 2010.
Year | Deaths | Difference |
---|---|---|
1999 | 229,380 | |
2000 | 229,551 | +171 |
2001 | 234,044 | +4,493 |
2002 | 234,565 | +521 |
2003 | 239,371 | +4,806 |
2004 | 232,525 | -6,846 |
2005 | 237,037 | +4,512 |
2006 | 237,126 | +89 |
2007 | 233,720 | -3,406 |
2008 | 234,766 | +1,046 |
2009 | 232,736 | -2,030 |
2010 | 234,012 | +1,276 |
2011 | 239,942 | +5,930 |
2012 | 242,554 | +2,612 |
2013 | 248,359 | +5,805 |
2014 | 245,929 | -2,430 |
2015 | 259.206 | +13,277 |
2016 | 262,240 | +3,034 |
2017 | 269,409 | +7,169 |
2018 | 270,129 | +720 |
2019 | 270,952 | +823 |
2020 | 310,701 | +39,749 |
Average | +2,078 | |
Std Dev | +4,368 |
- wonder.cdc.gov
- https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/01/27/40000-excess-deaths-in-2020-and-other-things-we-learned-from-california-death-data/
Or, more accurately, these events accelerated the ongoing drop in enrollment.
Year | Fall enrollment | ||
---|---|---|---|
2004: | 4,138 | ||
2005: | 4,171 | +0.8% | |
2006: | 4,124 | -1.1% | |
2007: | 4,282 | +3.8% | |
2008: | 4,364 | +1.9% | |
2009: | 4,551 | +4.3% | |
2010: | 4,489 | -1.4% | |
2011: | 4,467 | -0.5% | |
2012: | 4,193 | -6.1% | |
2013: | 4,087 | -2.5% | |
2014: | 3,878 | -5.1% | |
2015: | 3,872 | -0.1% | |
2016: | 3,787 | -2.2% | |
2017: | 3,610 | -4.7% | |
2018: | 3,018 | -16.4% | ← Dropoff of almost 600 |
2019: | 2,576 | -14.7% | ← Another Dropoff of close to 450 |
2020: | 2,297 | -10.2% | ← Coronavirus pandemic |
The 2021 school year saw enrollment drop further to 2,116 — 46% of the enrollment in the peak enrollment year of 2009 and 59% of the enrollment in 2017, the year before the protests and riots.
:
Bob: Yeah, that was back in around 1962 or 3 somewhere around there and I made some, what were for me, fundamental realizations. So remind me of that story because I want to tell you another one and I'll forget if you don't.
I was in my uncle's, same uncle, and I was in his backyard and he was playing with these two new walkie talkies he had just bought. I'd never heard of a walkie talkie. Back in 1962 transistors were only three years old, so these were brand new things and so we were playing with them, and I would grab one and my sister would grab one, and we'd be talking to each other and then I realized, as soon as she was far enough away to where I couldn't hear her without the walkie talkie, I couldn't hear her with it either. The range was such that they were the same range.
So I thought, well that's not fair, this things not doing anything, it's a sham. This walkie talkie doesn't work, and yet somebody sold it, right, so I'm thinking well how can that be, how can you go into business selling things that don't actually do what they're supposed to do, and as a little kid I was just shocked by that, like is this possible. So the next thing I think, like for first communion, (Catholic church, first communion), people come over and they give you presents. And 1962, I think, is when I had my first communion and I got a walkie talkie, I got a radio, and I forget how many transistors it was, but all my friends at school, well they were doing the same thing. They got radios and we compared notes, and one of us had an 8 transistor and one had a 10, one had 12, one had a 6 and I thought, well that's weird, they don't sound any different, they sound the same, it’s not like one's higher quality that I could tell, so I started wondering "well, what's the difference? What are those transistors doing if they don't result in any palpable improvement?"
So I took the backs off and I wanted to see if I could spot the difference. I counted the transistors (I knew that they were the little silver cans), they were easy to spot, and so I verified that they had as many as they said that they would have, but I also noticed the printed circuit wiring that was on the side of the board that was facing me when I took the back off, because I could see it and I looked at it and I realized those transistors didn't go anywhere. Only six of them were connected to the circuit.
Interviewer: They were just stuck into the board with, by soldering.
Bob: Yeah they were just stuck in. And I was puzzling over this for the longest time thinking, my understanding limited though that I knew it was, was that those wires on the board were carrying electrical currents of some sort and that's how these transistors work, so if there's no wires, how could they do anything, and I finally asked my uncle, "I give up I don't know what's happening here, why would they put transistors in there, how are they participating in the radio's function without those wires?" He says "they're not" and I said "well what are they doing in the circuit?" He said "they're not in the circuit, they're just in the product", "What?". He said, "in fact, I bet you that if we test them we'll discover that they don't even work, they're probably the broken ones that were on the floor and they just stuck them in there, so that they could call it a, you know, more of a transistor radio so that people would pay more for it".
I said "that can't be legal." He goes "sure it is", and I suddenly realize my gosh the world is a stranger place than I ever thought.
Andrew Karas is one the respondents who agreed. Last month he began the second year of his MBA program at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, via Zoom from the Philadelphia apartment he leased for the two-year duration. Wharton ranked sixth in the 2019-20 U.S. rankings.I feel that a paraphrase and re-write of the article might look like this:
In a follow-up interview by Zoom, clad in a Wharton T-shirt and with a city of Chicago flag on his wall, Karas said he feels the value of the program is diminished by being online, he doesn't understand why Wharton doesn't behave like any other business whose services changed, and the school should offer a partial refund.
"It's disturbing to me that they feel entitled to ask us to pay the whole full freight of tuition. It shows a lack of recognition of the massive resources that they have that alumni have contributed," said Karas, who wants to pursue a career in real estate development, creating places for people to live in urban centers.
—Students at the Costliest MBA Programs Have Buyer's Remorse
"I am unhappy at an MBA program would charge what the market will bear," says an MBA student who missed the point in his classes on 'setting prices.' "I mean, I'll write Wharton the check, of course, but I don't understand why they won't charge me less than I'm willing to pay!"
An Associate Professor at Wharton, who preferred to speak off the record, commented, "We get a few of these every year. We explain that the habit of thinking in terms of 'price fairness' and leaving money on the table for strangers is pretty much what we are trying to get them to stop doing. Most of the students learn it eventually. Some do not. The one's who don't can use their $200,000 Wharton education to land a job paying $40,000 per year at some non-profit for blind ducks. Lord knows, the ones who don't get it won't be leading the alumni contribution fund raisers."
Ed Finney, Wharton class of 93 and partner at McKinsey, was asked about this. Should Wharton reduce their tuition?
"I'm not seeing that," he said. "You might drop the price a bit for the first years if you were worried about filling the class. It would probably be cheaper to just run an advertising campaign if you were worried, but you could war-game it. The second year students are pretty stuck, though. It isn't like attending Wharton for one year and not graduating is particularly valuable. I'd consider adding a 50% surcharge for those students because of the extra effort in delivering the classes remotely."
...
A hammer's ability to drive nails determines the hammerness, not it's price.
My father had been sick for almost a year. Already he'd had one lung removed. But after a time home — which he spent mostly in bed, listening to programs of eclectic classical music (Penderecki, Kodaly's Sonata for Unaccompanied Cello) on WBAI-FM ... — he began to grow weaker.Fortunatly for me, the book came out when I was still at college. It would have only illustrated (again) the fragility of memory if I had gotten that detail wrong.
For most of my life, if it came up, I would tell you: "My father died of lung cancer in 1958 when I was seventeen."
... if I was born in 1942, in 1958 I could not possibly have been seventeen... WBAI-FM did not begin to broadcast til 1960. There were no Penderecki recordings available in 1958. Various researches followed
Finally, in an old Harlem newspaper, a small article was unearthed that confirmed it: my father died in the early days of October 1960.
I was eighteen.
From the New York Times:
If hydroxychloroquine becomes an accepted treatment, several pharmaceutical companies stand to profit, including shareholders and senior executives with connections to the president. Mr. Trump himself has a small personal financial interest in Sanofi, the French drugmaker that makes Plaquenil, the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine.Underlining added by me.
Trump's "small personal financial interest" seems to be at most $3,000 of shares held through indirectly through a mutual fund:
President Trump — increasingly a booster of hydroxychloroquine as a potential treatment for coronavirus — has a "small personal financial interest" in Sanofi, a French drugmaker that produces a brand-name version of the drug - though it's a tiny investment for the billionaire.And ...
- Sanofi produces Plaquenil, the brand-name form of hydroxychloroquine, the New York Times reported; the drug is typically used to treat rheumatoid arthritis, lupus and malaria.
- Trump's three family trusts have investments in a Dodge & Cox mutual fund, with Sanofi as the largest holding, according to the Times.
- Forbes estimates the value of Trump's Sanofi holdings to be less than $3,000; for context, Forbes estimates Trump's total net worth at $2.1 billion
First Bank Collapses Amid Coronavirus Woes: More in Store?The bank did collapse. The collapse was in the middle of the Coronavirus outbreak. But the bank was so small that this would not be news otherwise. And the collapse had nothing to do with the Coronavirus outbreak.
The FDIC noted "The First State Bank has experienced longstanding capital and asset quality issues, operating with financial difficulties since 2015." Moreover, the bank's capital levels as of Dec 31, 2019 were too low for legally staying operational.
Therefore, all four branches of The First State Bank, along with its deposits and certain assets were immediately acquired by MVB Bank Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MVB Financial Corp. MVBF. As of Dec 31, 2019, it had nearly $139.5 million of total deposits and $152.4 million in total assets.
While the bank's failure was not a result of coronavirus woes...
In 25 pound bags.
And if you are buying 25 pounds of bread flour, you'll want to purchase a large plastic tub to store it:

The plastic container cost twice what the flour did. Sigh.
I swear we are not hoarding ...
Quarterbacks don't usually get [franchise tagged], although it happened with Drew Brees and Peyton Manning at different points in their Hall of Fame careers.This is an interesting sentence because it is either:
- trivially true and meaningless, or
- wrong
Year | # Tags | Quarterbacks | Source |
---|---|---|---|
2020 | 15 | Dak Prescott | Wikipedia |
2019 | 6 | Wikipedia | |
2018 | 5 | Wikipedia | |
2017 | 5 | Kirk Cousins | Wikipedia |
2016 | 9 | Kirk Cousins | Wikipedia |
2015 | 6 | Wikipedia | |
2014 | 6 | Wikipedia | |
2013 | 8 | Wikipedia | |
2012 | 19 | Drew Brees | Wikipedia |
2011 | 13 | Michael Vick, Peyton Manning | Wikipedia |
2010 | 6 | Wikipedia | |
2009 | 15 | Matt Cassel | Wikipedia |
2008 | 12 | Wikipedia | |
2007 | 7 | Wikipedia | |
: | |||
2005 | ? | Drew Brees | |
2004 | ? | Peyton Manning | |
: | |||
1993 | 10 | Steve Young |
If we add up the total number of franchise tags applied from 2007 — 2020 we find that 132 tags have been applied in those 14 seasons. Seven of these tags were applied to quarterbacks (with two of the tags being applied to Kirk Cousins in back-to-back years).
Approximately 10 tags are applied in the average year.
So ... a quarterback gets tagged about every second year. If this is what the author means by "quarterbacks don't usually get [franchise tagged]" then the statement is true, but also meaningless. No individual position gets tagged with any regularity.
And quarterbacks aren't even tagged at a rate lower than one would expect. The offense and defense have 22 starting position players between them and kickers are also a skill position that gets tagged, so if the tag was applied uniformly across starters we would expect approximately six tags to have been applied to quarterbacks from 2007 ‐ 2020 (132 ÷ 23 = 6). The actual number was seven, so quarterbacks get tagged a tiny bit more often than one might expect just based on the number of starters available to be tagged.
So the basic claim is either
- Trivially true, but meaningless: It is "unusual" to tag any specific position other than punter, or
- Wrong: quarterbacks actually get tagged about as often as one should expect
1937: John Rabe
During the Rape of Nanking, John Rabe, Nazi Party member, represented Germany in the setting up of the Nanking Safety Zone, which offered shelter to ~200,000 Chinese. The Japanese respected the Safety Zone.
Meanwhile, a few years later ...
1940: Chiune Sugihara
In mid-1940 Germany, Chiune Sugihara was vice-consul of the Japanese Consulate in Kaunas, Lithuania. He began issuing visas to refugees allowing the refugees into Japan. This was against explicit orders from Japan that no visas were to be issued unless the person being issued the visa had permission to travel to a final destination. The Japanese government did not want refugees stuck in Japan.
He left the consulate upon its closure in September.
In spite of his disobedience, the Japanese government honored the visas and estimates of saved refugees range from 2,000 - 6,000.

eventually concluding with this (mixing grams and 100 ounces):

3-Mar-2020: Mekita Rivas divides 500 million by 1 million and gets, not 500, but about 330 million — the population of the United States.

Brian Williams and NYT editor Mara Gay go on to discuss this tweet on MSNBC, not to criticize the innumeracy, but with wonder that Mike Bloomberg could have made every American a millionaire, but chose not to do so.
20-Jan-2020: Amy Harmon divides 5,600 by 100 and gets 70:
"Collectively, the 101 black teens participating in the study reported more than 5,600 experiences of racial discrimination over two weeks… That’s more than 70 [per individual] over two weeks."
- Mekita Rivas is a young, freelance writer.
- Brian Williams is a journalist at NBC and has worked at NBC since 1993.
- Mara Gay has a degree from the University of Michigan and is a member of the New York Times editorial board.
- Amy Harmon has a BA from the University of Michigan and has worked for the New York Times since 1997. She won a Pulitzer Prize in 2008 while at the New York Times for covering "the impact of science and technology on everyday life."
22-Sep-2022: More from CNN:
"The recent Ukrainian offensive, which has seen Kyiv recapture thousands of square meters of territory, has taken a significant toll."8-Dec-2022: Fox News wants to participate:
"Russia's Wagner Group fighters burn through 2,000 rounds of ammo per day fighting determined Ukrainian army"
|
|
The Week headlined their reporting with:
Trump's GOP challenger Bill Weld did surprisingly well in New Hampshire primaryFox reported:
With 85% of the precincts reporting, Trump has 85.7% of the vote, and Weld has 9.2% of the vote.
Trump doubles Obama's 2012 vote total in New Hampshire, signaling fired up baseand Fox had a graphic (with the results at that time):
2012 | 2004 | 1996 | |
---|---|---|---|
Trump | Obama | Bush | Clinton |
120,476 | 49,080 | 53,962 | 76,797 |
Incumbents rarely have large vote totals in the primaries because many people don't bother to vote in the primary election for the party with the incumbent. Trump's 120,000 is very high for an incumbent president in a primary without a serious challenger. The 1980 Democrat presidential primaries would be an example of an incumbent facing a serious challenge.
It is also true that the votes NOT for the incumbent tend to be split among many challenger candidates. 10% of the primary vote going to a single challenger is unusual. The incumbent getting only 80%-85% is not unusual. In 2012, Obama got just 80% of the Democrat primary votes in New Hampshire. Bush got 80% of the Republican primary votes in 2004 in New Hampshire. Bill Clinton got 85% of the Democrat primary votes in New Hampshire in 1996.
One need not even believe this difference in focus is intentional or politically motivated. Different editors find different facts to be more interesting and headline those. A more complete report would include both and include the relevant comparison data from previous elections. But that is more work and takes longer.

Long associated with glamour, money and cultural influence, the rise of the luxury city has foundered on the rocks of inequality and, increasingly, diminished upward mobility. Indeed, according to Pew research, the greatest inequality now exists in superstar cities such as San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, and San Jose.Underlining added by me.
... Now, there is evidence that simply being exposed to the arts may help people live longer.So ... does going to museums cause one to be more engaged in the world? Or are folks who are more engaged in the world more likely to go to museums?
... The chances of living longer only went up the more frequently people engaged with the arts, according to the study, which was published this month in The BMJ, formerly The British Medical Journal. People who went to a museum or the theater once a month or even every few months had a 31 percent reduced risk of dying in that period, according to the study.
The study controlled for socioeconomic factors like a participant's income, education level and mobility, said Andrew Steptoe, a co-author of the study and the head of University College London's research department of behavioral science and health.
But Professor Steptoe said researchers theorized that people who expose themselves to the arts are likely to be more engaged in the world.
The ride-hailing service said it lost $1.1 billion, or 64 cents per share, ... With its latest money-losing quarter, Uber has lost approximately $8.5 billion since its May 2019 initial public offering, but offered proof that an aggressive austerity program is making progress. (In the same quarter a year ago, Uber lost $887 million, or $1.97 a share.)Losses have increased from $887M to $1,100M in equivalent quarters. This is proof that the Uber austerity program is making progress.
Meanwhile, the Uber shares outstanding have increased from about ½ billion in 2018 to about 1.7 billion in 2019. This allows the per-share loss to decrease [from $1.97/share to $0.64/share] while the overall losses increase [from $887M to $1,100M]. The 2019 shareholders now own about ⅓ of Uber, the company, that they did in 2018 while the overall losses have increased. This is progress.
Quarter | Profit or (Loss) | Shares Outstanding | source |
---|---|---|---|
Oct-Dec, 2019 | ($1,096,000,000) | 1,710,260,000 | |
Jul-Sep, 2019 | ($1,162,000,000) | 1,700,213,000 | |
Apr-Jun, 2019 | ($5,236,000,000) | 1,110,704,000 | |
Jan-Mar, 2019 | ($1,012,000,000) | 453,543,000 | |
Oct-Dec, 2018 | ($887,000,000) | 449,501,000 | |
Jul-Sep, 2018 | ($986,000,000) | 445,783,000 | |
Apr-Jun, 2018 | ($878,000,000) | 440,958,000 |
The $5B loss in Apr-Jun is related to the IPO and reflects the increase in shares outstanding. It is an accounting artifact.
Uber showed a profit in the Jan-Mar 2018 quarter because it sold off some foreign subsidiaries to Yandex (in Russia) and Grab (in Southeast Asia).
The Coronavirus epidemic disrupted Uber's fairly consistent pattern of losing of around $1 billion per quarter. Uber management does seem to be getting the company back to their old, fairly consistent, level, however.
The $2.9B loss in Jan-Mar 2020 would have been around $1.1 billion without a bunch of writedowns.
As of 27-Oct-2020 Uber had a market cap of around $60 billion with a share price of about $35/share.
Quarter | Profit or (Loss) | Shares Outstanding | source |
---|---|---|---|
Apr-Jun, 2020 | ($1,800,000,000) | 1,731,632,000 | |
Jan-Mar, 2020 | ($2,900,000,000) | 1,724,367,000 | |
Oct-Dec, 2019 | ($1,096,000,000) | 1,710,260,000 |

Year | Number | Comment |
---|---|---|
2018 | 295 | |
2017 | 292 | |
2016 | 335 | |
2015 | 352 | |
2014 | 333 | |
2013 | 335 | |
2012 | 419 | |
2011 | 515 | |
2010 | 536 | |
2009 | 471 | |
2008 | 523 | |
2007 | 496 | |
2006 | 596 | |
2005 | 539 | |
2004 | 570 | |
2003 | 597 | |
2002 | 587 | |
2001 | 649 | ~2,600 people killed in World Trade Center Attack |
2000 | 673 |
The interesting bit is that for these statistical purposes, the 9/11 attack victims are not counted as murders or non-negligent homicides, though most folks would consider them to be (I think?).
I can see arguments for excluding the 9/11 attack casualties. But I can also see how doing so is misleading. Possibly NYC is very safe except for every few decades it is very unsafe for 10 minutes?
Europe has much lower HISTORICAL murder and homicide rates than the US. If one excludes the holocaust.
The FBI seems to omit the 9/11 attacks as well. The reported national trend numbers by year are:
Year | Count | Source |
---|---|---|
2002 | 16,204 | |
2001 | 16,037 | |
15,980 | ||
2000 | 15,586 |
The FBI numbers can change a bit year-to-year because reporting is voluntary and only about 50% of the population is in regions that report. NYC does report. And, it seems unlikely that there would have been a drop of 3,000 if the 9/11 attacks had not happened. They just aren't counted.
The Pulse Nightclub shooting deaths in Orlando in 2016
- You didn't do it
- You weren't supposed to prevent it
- You don't know anyone involved
- You laughing at the event won't make things worse or anyone feel badly
Former Delta Force commander dies in lawnmower accident at Alabama home

Who knew?
Critical to this was that the watches used by the engineers and conductors running the trains be accurate and after a train collision in 1891 the railroads involved created the post of Chief Time Inspector and assigned Webb C. Ball to the job.
The "time-inspector" was responsible for ensuring that the watches used by the train engineers and conductors were approved for railroad use and that the watches were keeping time accurately. Individual watches were inspected bi-weekly and the watch was cleaned as needed, the variation from the "true" time noted (and, presumably corrected), etc.
Webb C. Ball A Short History of Railroad Watches
Year | Contributions | Grants | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2001 | $9,885,816 | — | $9.9M | |
2002 | $25,115,196 | — | $25.1M | |
2003 | $44,529,126 | — | $44.5M | |
2004 | $57,747,324 | — | $57.7M | |
2005 | $79,495,333 | — | $79.5M | |
2006 | $109,730,002 | — | $109.7M | |
2007 | $81,229,000 | $41,556,000 | $122.8M | |
2008 | $88,320,000 | $143,275,000 | $231.6M | |
2009 | $90,617,000 | $150,724,000 | $241.3M | |
2010 | $161,939,000 | $142,428,000 | $304.3M | |
2011 | $107,949,000 | $134,333,000 | $242.3M | |
2012 | $113,119,518 | $114,546,567 | $227.6M | |
2013 | $198,824,477 | $92,923,660 | $291.7M | |
2014 | $217,832,954 | $113,957,283 | $331.8M | |
2015 | $182,501,954 | $109,918,387 | $292.4M | |
2016 | $135,445,489 | $72,422,962 | $207.8M | |
2017 | $22,843,211 | $3,695,764 | $26.5M | |
2018 | $21,305,219 | $2,939,718 | $24.2M |
Year | Contributions | Grants | Total |
---|---|---|---|
2019 | $18,864,072 | $10,043,918 | $28.9M |
2020 | $13,185,009 | $4,077,758 | $17.3M |
2021 | Not Broken Out | $16.1M |

One co-worker was developing a GUI library that another co-worker was using to build a GUI for our product. Co-worker #2 was taking advantage of the fact that they were on the same team and provided feedback for desired changes to the library.
When Co-worker #1 delivered those changes, it turned out that the GUI code being written by Co-worker #2 needed to be modified to work with the new changes. Co-worker #2 was sad.
"He wants improvement, but not change," explained co-worker #1.
The idea is, of course, that men are successful because they have gone to collge. No idea was ever more absurd. No man is successful because he has managed to pass a certain number of courses and has received a sheepskin which tells the world in Latin, that neither the world nor the graduate can read, that he has successfully completed the work required. If the man is successful, it is because he has the qualities for success in him; the college "education" has merely, speaking in terms of horticulture, forced those qualities and given him certain intellectual tools with which to work — tools which he could have got without going to college, but not nearly so quickly. So far as anything practical is concerned, a college is simply an intellectual hothouse. For four years the mind of the undergraduate is put "under glass," and a very warm and constant sunshine is poured down upon it. The result is, of course, that his mind blooms earlier than it would in the much cooler intellectual atmosphere of the business world.
A memorandum from the analysis contains this throwaway observation:
We know from out experience that we can count on nearly fourteen operational sorties per bomber produced.This works out to about a 6% chance of losing the bomber (and, often, the crew) on each mission.
As a point of comparison, the Allied (primarily US, British, and Canadian) D-Day fatalities were about 4,500 with maybe 2× or 3× as many wounded. The total invasion force was about 150,000 men.
A random bomber mission was more dangerous than being a random soldier assigned to D-Day (though not as dangerous as a soldier assigned to the 1st wave at Omaha beach).
A British "tour" of duty in a bomber consisted of 30 missions.
The good news for the (British and American) bomber crews was that the odds of survival got better as the war progressed. But the losses were still pretty bad.
Further proof, as if any were needed, of Marshall McLuhan's prescience. On 1964 he wrote:Craigslist was founded in 1995. It incorporated in 1999 and has a website targeting the San Francisco Bay Area. In 2000 it served nine cities (regions). 13 cities in 2001. 17 cities in 2002 and 31 in 2003. As of 2017 it employs about 50 people.
"The classified ads (and stock-market quotations) are the bedrock of the press. Should an alternative source of easy access to such diverse daily information be found, the press will fold."
The

A table showing the pitchers for the 2014 team, the number of innings they pitched for the team and their current status is:
Player Name | 2014 IP | Status | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Madison Bumgarner | 217 | ⅓ | Playing | 2020: Arizona Diamondbacks |
Tim Hudson | 189 | ⅓ | Unsigned | 2015: Most recent MLB game |
Ryan Vogelsong | 184 | ⅔ | Retired | in 2017 |
Tim Lincecom | 155 | ⅔ | Unsigned | 2016: Most recent MLB game |
Yusmeiro Petit | 117 | Playing | 2020: Oakland Athletics | |
Matt Cain | 90 | ⅓ | Retired | after 2017 season |
Jake Peavy | 78 | ⅔ | Retired | in 2019 |
Jean Machi | 66 | ⅓ | Unsigned | 2017: Most recent MLB game |
J.C. Gutierrez | 63 | ⅔ | Unsigned | 2014: Most recent MLB game |
Sergio Romo | 58 | Playing | 2020: Minnesota Twins | |
Santiago Casilla | 58 | ⅓ | Unsigned | 2018: Most recent MLB game |
Jeremy Affeldt | 55 | ⅓ | Retired | after 2015 season |
Javier Lopez | 37 | ⅔ | Retired | after 2016 season |
George Kontos | 32 | ⅓ | Unsigned | 2018: Most recent MLB game |
David Huff | 20 | Unsigned | 2016: Most recent MLB game | |
Hunter Strickland | 7 | Playing | 2020: Washington Nationals | |
Erik Cordier | 6 | Unsigned | 2015: Most recent MLB game | |
Chris Heston | 5 | ⅓ | Unsigned | 2017: Most recent MLB game |
Brett Bochy | 3 | ⅓ | Retired | after 2015 season |
Mike Kickham | 2 | Unsigned | 2014: Most recent MLB game | |
Jake Dunning | ⅔ | Unsigned | 2014: Most recent MLB game |
Only four of the pitchers from the 2014 Giants are still playing in the MLB: Madison, Petit, Hunter Strickland and Sergio Romo.
- Recently fired/departed co-workers:
Whatever has gone wrong is their fault! - Contractors
- Folks in Other Departments/Divisions
- Interns (in Your Own Group)
- Regular Employees in Your Own Group
More shoppers plan to take out loan to finance the holidays
Most millennial renters can't afford to buy a home

On the left: Despite rain, Bay Area airports off to a pretty good start. |
On the right: Power at Oakland Airport being restored after outage causes holiday travel nightmare |
ESPN has something called the "
Team | FPI | Results | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wins | Losses | ||||
1 | Ohio State | 10-0 | 33.7 | Wisconsin (13) | |
2 | Clemson | 11-0 | 30.7 | ||
3 | Alabama | 9-1 | 29.8 | Texas A&M (15) | LSU (4) |
4 | LSU | 10-0 | 26.1 | Alabama (3), Florida (9), Auburn (11), Texas (23) | |
5 | Georgia | 9-1 | 24.7 | Florida (9), Auburn (11), Notre Dame (14) | South Carolina (36) |
6 | Penn State | 9-1 | 22.9 | Michigan (10), Iowa (16) | Minnesota (17) |
7 | Oregon | 9-1 | 22.4 | Washington (18), Washington State (24) | Auburn (11) |
8 | Oklahoma | 9-1 | 21.6 | Baylor (21), Texas (23) | Kansas State (37) |
9 | Florida | 9-2 | 21.6 | Auburn (11) | LSU (4), Georgia (5) |
10 | Michigan | 8-2 | 20.9 | Notre Dame (14) | Penn State (6), Wisconsin (13) |
11 | Auburn | 8-2 | 20.9 | Oregon (7), Texas A&M (15) | LSU (4), Georgia (5), Florida (9) |
12 | Utah | 9-1 | 20.0 | Washington (18), Washington State (24) | USC (22) |
13 | Wisconsin | 8-2 | 20.0 | Michigan (10), Iowa (16) | Ohio State (1), Illinois (60) |
The interesting bit is Alabama compared to LSU. Alabama has played two teams in the top-25 of the FPI rankings, beaten one (Texas A&M, ranked #15) and lost to the other (LSU, ranked #4). LSU is undefeated having played four teams in the FPI top-25 and beaten them all (#3, #9, #11, and #23), including Alabama.
Alabama still has a higher FPI score than LSU and it isn't particularly close. It all comes down to the model.
The next primary election is about six months away, in April, and Baltimore voters will get to choose a mayor. We will either keep the current one or choose from other candidates.From a 12-Nov-2019 Baltimore Sun opinion piece.
The Baltimore mayoral election will be held on November 3, 2020, the same day as the general election. Isn't it bad form to publicly acknowledge that the general election doesn't matter?
IN TERMS OF SECTION 14 (1) OF PUBUC ORDER AND SECURITY ACT [CHAPTER 11:17],
I CHIEF SUPERINTENDENT NEWBERT SAUNYAMA BEING THE OFFICER COMMANDING POLICE
HARARE CENTRAL DISTRICT AND THEREFORE THE REGULATING AUTHORITY OF THE AREA
BOUNDED BY REKAYI TANGWENA, COVENTRY ROAD, ROTTEN ROW THE NATIONAL RAILWAYS
OF ZIMBABWE LINE UP TO THE MUKUVISI RIVER, ENTERPRISE ROAD, CHURCHILL ROAD,
SWAN DRIVE, CORK ROAD, SANDRINGHAM DRIVE, DRUMMOND CHAPLIN STREET AND BISHOP
GAUL AVENUE, BELIEVES ON REASONABLE GROUNDS THAT, THE CARRYING IN PUBLIC
WHETHER OPENLY OR BY CONCEALMENT IN A PUBLIC PLACE OR PUBLIC THOROUGHFARE
OR PUBLIC DISPLAY OF ANY OF THE FOLLOWING WEAPONS OR ITEMS CAPABLE OF USE
AS WEAPONS:
Better, yet, someone actually got arrested for selling catapults:- CATAPULTS, MACHETES, AXES, KNOBKERRIES, SWORDS, KNIVES OR DAGGERS,
- ANY TRADTTTONAL WEAPON WHATSOEVER IS LIKELY TO OCCASION PUBLIC DISORDER OR A BREACH OF THE PEACE.
Emphasis Added
A Harare man appeared in court last week after he was arrested for selling a
catapult in defiance of a police order banning the sale of such weapons in
the city. The Zimbabwe Republic Police recently issued a statement banning
weapons such as catapults and axes, which they deemed a threat to peace,
security and order. Zebediah Mambondiani appeared before Harare magistrate
Ms Barbra Chimboza.
He was charged with contravening the temporary prohibition of possession of certain weapons within police districts and was remanded out of custody to tomorrow.
Sadly, the folks in Zimbabwe use the word 'catapult' where we would use
the word He was charged with contravening the temporary prohibition of possession of certain weapons within police districts and was remanded out of custody to tomorrow.
I saw a guy building a website today.
No React.
No Vue.
No Ember.
He just sat there.
Writing HTML.
Like a Psychopath.
No React.
No Vue.
No Ember.
He just sat there.
Writing HTML.
Like a Psychopath.
My friend thought of me. Because I do this. And he wondered if the Twitter poster hung out in the same coffeeshops I patronize.
3-November-2019:
And this morning my wife pointed out that this was a variant of an existing meme:
I saw a guy at Starbucks today.
No smartphone.
No tablet.
No laptop.
He just sat there drinking his coffee.
Like a psychopath.
No smartphone.
No tablet.
No laptop.
He just sat there drinking his coffee.
Like a psychopath.
Series C 92-103 — Health — Hospital Facilities By Type of Service: 1909 to 1945
Year | Total | General | Mental | Tuberculosis | Other | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hospitals | Beds | Hospitals | Beds | Hospitals | Beds | Hospitals | Beds | Hospitals | Beds | |
1945 | 6,511 | 1,738,944 | 4,744 | 922,549 | 563 | 657,393 | 449 | 78,774 | 755 | 80,228 |
1940 | 6,291 | 1,226,245 | 4,432 | 462,360 | 602 | 621,284 | 479 | 78,246 | 778 | 64,355 |
1935 | 6,246 | 1,075,139 | 4,257 | 306,174 | 592 | 529,311 | 496 | 70,373 | 901 | 69,281 |
1930 | 6,719 | 955,869 | 4,302 | 371,609 | 561 | 437,919 | 515 | 65,940 | 1,341 | 80,401 |
1925 | 6,896 | 802,065 | 4,041 | 293,301 | 589 | 341,480 | 466 | 49,131 | 1,800 | 118,153 |
1920 | 6,152 | 817,020 | 4,013 | 311,159 | 521 | 295,382 | 32 | 10,150 | 1,566 | 200,329 |
Some surprising bits:
- I had not realized that the US had dedicated tuberculosis hospitals.
- The number of beds in mental institutions is much higher than I would have expected. Especially interesting
is how quickly the number of beds in mental hospitals grew between 1920 and 1940. Notice that by
1935, roughly ½ the hospital beds in the US were dedicated to mental patients.
- World War II is quite visible. Between 1940 and 1945 there was a large increase in hospital beds
- Some of the increase is driven by population growth, but not a lot. The continental US population was about 106
million in 1920 and about 132 million in 1945. The US did not add 450,000 general hospital beds
between 1940 and 1945 because of population growth.

Alternately, it suggests that a database somewhere was not updated inside a transaction.
Subject: Apple ID Locked
From: Apple Support <IYmw1r9XUAnkUPC-TRelMqZPkiIo4Dhw@sKsn6Iua-63972768.gov>

Dear Customer
Your Apple ID has been locked for security reasons. To unlock it, you must verify your identity.
Unlock Account>
If you don't unlock your account before 24 hours, your account password will change automatically. You can reset your password at iforgot.apple.com.
Sincerely,
Apple Support
The Apple e-mail servers must have been down, right? With a return address of
IYmw1r9XUAnkUPC-TRelMqZPkiIo4Dhw@sKsn6Iua-63972768.gov
.
In addition, the originating server was komnwj2.com, a site that was only registered September 27, 2019. It looks like Apple was preparing for this.
20-December-2019:
Apple seems to be having IT problems again!
Same message, but this time sent with a return address of
zopucshkqccieuk-pstz9mwska1z2bml@gz8tlybf-77497253.info
It originated from: sysupdatelnappuruincorpe.com
US history has similar issues.
The Iroquois Confederation (of "Last of the Mohicans Fame") for example, in 1722 occupied most of what is today the state of New York:

What is often omitted is that the population of the Six Nations (the Tuscarora were added to the original Five Nations in 1722) peaked at only around 10,000. The New York colony had a population of around 40,000 in 1720, but by the time of the French-and-Indian War the colony population was over 100,000.
By 1790 the population of New York State was 340,000. With a 34:1 population deficit, the Iroquois had no chance to survive as an independent political entity if the neighboring American states did not wish them to. The American states did not wish.
Still, this example from Bloomberg must be a candidate for "Worst Pie Chart" of the year. Or maybe forever.

Zimbabwe is already grappling with its worst economic crisis since the 2017 army coup ...Worst economic crisis in two years. The bar is set low.
The easy narrative is that the Dodgers pitching (and especially Clayton Kershaw) choked away the win. A more realistic view is that the two teams were pretty evenly matched. In spite of their difference in W-L records for the season, the two teams had similar W-L records after the all-star break: the Nationals were 46-27 and the Dodgers were 46-24. The teams were pretty evenly matched and the series was pretty close — deciding the winner in extra innings of game five of a five game series is pretty close. A one run difference in total offense (22 vs 21) between the two teams over five games is pretty close.
If we want to assign blame, though, the Dodger batting should come in for its share and probably contributed more to losing the series than the Dodgers' pitching did.
The scores in the five games were the following: 10, 7, 6, 6, 4, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0.
And the scores binned out as wins vs losses is:
Wins: | 10, 7, 6, 6, 4 | |
Losses: | 4, 3, 2, 1, 0 |
It is fairly clear that scoring MORE than four runs per game led to a win and scoring FEWER runs per game led to a loss. Scoring four runs was a coin-flip.
The Los Angeles Dodgers scores were: 10 (W), 6 (W), 3 (L), 2 (L), 1 (L)
And the Nationals scores were: 7 (W), 6 (W), 4 (W), 4 (L), 0 (L)
This suggests that the failure was not the Los Angeles pitching, but the offense. The Dodgers outscored the Washington Nationals overall 22 to 21, but the Nationals' scoring was more consistent and thus more useful.
The Hardball Times has a table of
Runs | Win % |
0 | 0.0% |
1 | 7.7% |
2 | 20.8% |
3 | 33.9% |
4 | 47.1% |
5 | 59.3% |
6 | 68.6% |
7 | 77.6% |
8 | 84.0% |
9 | 92.1% |
10 | 93.9% |
The Nationals offense was only a bit better: 2.39 expected wins (0.000 + 0.471 + 0.471 + 0.686 + 0.776 = 2.394). But, basically, the series was an even match and someone had to win. That someone turned out to be the Nationals.
So the Dodger pitching melted down in game 5, but with a bit more offense the Dodgers would have won anyway. And the Dodger offense underperformed more than the Dodger pitching.
An example is German 10-year bond yields which are at about -0.338% right now.
And now Greece has just issued some 3-month bonds with a yield of -0.02%. If you can make this "investment" at the same rate four quarters in a row you will be able to loan Greece $10,000 and get back $9,998!
This feels like something at which the Greeks should excel. In 2011, for example, a number of holders of Greek bonds took took massive writedowns on their bonds. If bondholders are buying bonds where they don't expect to get all their money back, I feel that the Greeks should have an advantage over the Germans. The Argentines should benefit from this environment as well.
A Wild Weasel is an attack aircraft whose role is to attack enemy air defenses. But to do that, the Wild Weasel needs to get the enemy air defenses to reveal themselves ... which usually requires the Wild Weasel to get the attention of the enemy air defenses. Wikipedia explains:
In brief, the task of a Wild Weasel aircraft is to bait enemy anti-aircraft defenses into targeting it ...In short, the Wild Weasel has, as part of its job, the task of doing the electronic version of standing around, waving its hands and shouting, "Neener, neener, neener, you can't get me!" This tends, as a side effect, to cause the enemy air defenses to pay less attention to the rest of the attack aircraft who are doing the equivalent of making themselves very inconspicuous and repeating "he can't see me, he can't see me" softly.
The press coverage of Harry and Meghan seems to be drawing (negative) attention away from William and Kate. Thus, Harry and Meghan are serving the role of "Wild Weasel" for the rest of the royal family.
- Uber
Original Comment:$50B For an unprofitable taxi company?
Today: Still unprofitable.
Uber went public on May 10 of this year at a price of $45/share. This valued the company at $82 billion and Uber as a company raised about $8 billion from the IPO. The $1 billion/quarter operating losses have continued, however, and Uber stock now trades under $30/share giving Uber a market value of about $50 billion.
- Xiaomi
Original Comment:Hard to figure this one. How valuable are unprofitable Chinese consumer electronics companies?
Today: Profitable.
This can be tricky to figure as Xiaomi financials are often priced in Hong Kong dollars (about 7-8 Hong Kong dollars per US dollar).
Using the ADR (XIACY) financial data the market capitalization today is $27B in US dollars. Xiaomi lost HK$ 9.3B in 2015, made a profit of HK$ 0.6B in 2016, lost HK$ 50B in 2017 (after taking an "unusual expense" ... there was an accounting scandal) and made HK$ 16B in 2018.
Things went from glorious (#1 cell phone manufacturer in China) to horrible (the term "unicorpse" was used to describe Xiaomi) and now the company appears stable, profitable and growing.
The stock price (HK$ 8.9) still seems to be ½ the 2018 IPO price (HK$ 17), though.
- AirBnB
Original Comment:We make our money by violating local zoning laws ... and all the neighbors hate us.
Today: Well, it seems that AirBnb is profitable if they don't have to pay interest on their debt, pay taxes or take into account amortization. Since real companies need to do all three, it isn't clear if they are actually profitable. AirBnb was believed to be preparing to go public in 2018, but instead had a management shakeup.
- Palantir
Original Comment:This one seems real. Lots of money selling services to police states and folks that want to be more police state like ...
Today: In late 2018 Palantir was (privately) valued at around $40B. Meanwhile, also in late 2018 Morgan Stanley mutual funds that owned Palantir were valuing the company at $4B. This is quite a spread! Also, Morgan Stanley would not sell its Palantir stock back to Palantir at the $4B valuation.
Much like Blackwater is/was real.
Meanwhile, Palantir has not gone public in 2019 and is trying to raise money in another private financing round using a company valuation of $26B.
- Snapchat
Original Comment:I don't understand. Of course, I didn't understand Facebook, either ...
Today: Still unprofitable.
Snapchat went public in early March 2019 at a share price of $17/share. It ended the day at $24.48/share. Today, Snapchat has a share price of $14.80 for a market capitalization of about $20B. Snapchat lost $0.5B in 2016, $3.5B in 2017 and $1.3B in 2018. It appears to be on track to lose roughly $1.3B in 2019.
- Dropbox
Original Comment:Because copying files over the internet isn't a commodity business. And also has great network effects to keep you locked in ...
Today: Still unprofitable.
Dropbox went public in March of 2018 at a share price of $21/share and a market valuation of $8.2B. After losing between $100M and $500M per year between 2015 and 2018 Dropbox may cut its annual losses to around $50M in 2019. The company is currently valued at a bit over $8B, so very close to its IPO price.
- Pinterest
Original Comment:Same as snapchat. Except I "get" it more, but don't understand how to make (much) money. Still ... see Facebook.
Today: Still unprofitable.
Pinterest went public in April of 2019 with a IPO stock price of $19/share and a market valuation of $10B. 2017 losses were $130M, 2018 losses were around $60M, but in true dot-com fashion Pinterest got its act together and is on a pace to lose over $1B in 2019. Pinterest stock is currently above $27/share and the company has a market capitalization around $15B — both about 50% higher than the IPO price.
- Twitter
Original Comment:We have never made money, but we're only 10 years old ...
Today: Profitable!
Twitter stock price was around $17/share when I wrote my original analysis. Today, about $40. Good job, Twitter!
- Yelp
Original Comment:We haven't made money, either ...
Today: Profitable!
Yelp lost a tiny bit of money in 2016, but has been profitable since. Current market capitalization is about $2.5B. Yelp stock is up about 75% since my original analysis.
- Groupon
Original Comment:Proudly delivering very bad customers to you, while also chasing off your good customers.
Today: Sporadically profitable
Since my original analysis, Groupon stock has dropped from about $4.50/share to about $2.60/share. Revenue seems to be slowly trending down. The company is sporadically profitable, though.
- WeWork
Original Comment:We rent out office space. But we have an app?
Today: Unprofitable.
This is the company that caused me to decide to update the status of my 2016 post. WeWork's last funding round valued the company at $47B. WeWork just pulled its proposed IPO and may be dead by the middle of next year. The good news is that the founder pulled $700M out of the company before the wheels came off the bus.
- Spotify
Original Comment:By construction, we can never extract very much money from the customers ... the folks who own the copyright will get the bulk of the profits ...
Today: Profitable!
Spotify didn't do an IPO. Instead if began trading with a "direct listing" in April 2019. Today Spotify has a market capitalization a bit over $20B. After losing around $2B total over the last four years, Spotify may make a profit of around $300M in 2019.
- Lyft
Original Comment:We're like Uber, but less trendy.
Today: Still unprofitable.
Today: Yep, Lyft is a smaller Uber. Lyft went public in March, two months before Uber. The Lyft IPO price was $72/share. Today, Lyft trades around $40/share with a market capitalization of around $12B. Lyft's losses are increasing and 2019 might be a record year for Lyft losses. Lyft could easily lose $2B in 2019.
- Zenefits
Original Comment:This one makes sense, but I don't know if this specific company can succeed. A large, recent layoff is sad.
Today: The company was valued at $4.5B in a 2015 private equity round. The valuation is probably lower today.
Zenefits is still in business, but still private. It held two rounds of layoffs in 2016 (250 employees let go in February and 106 in June) and followed those up with a 3rd round of layoffs in 2017 (430 employees) that eliminated almost ½ the remaining employees. By the end, Zenefits had reduced headcount by ⅔. The employees were asked to stop drinking at work and also to stop having sex in the stairwells. The company may be profitable. Or may not be.
- Social Finance
Original Comment:Because individuals are better at assessing loan risk than banks are. If we add intermediaries to "pool" individual piles of money and make the loan decisions, we have re-invented banking.
Today: Social finance seems to still be around, but doesn't seem as trendy as it was in 2016.
Colin Kaepernick of kneeling during the National Anthem before football games fame.
Colin Kaepernick who hasn't been employed by the NFL since March 3rd, 2017.
This ad (much like the Gillette ads earlier this year) generated a lot of controversy with many people, including President Trump, condemning it and many other people speaking up in favor. Some folks burned Nike products. Others called for, or predicted, a boycott.
But folks who weren't going to purchase the product can't effectively boycott it (as the folks calling for Chick-Fil-A boycotts discovered a number of years back). It appears that the Nike customer base is fine with the ad. Conveniently for everyone, Nike began a fiscal quarter just as the ad was released. This makes it easy to compare the results of the quarter before the ad (Jul-Sep 2018) with the same quarter one year later (Jul-Sep 2019):
Jul-Sep 2018 | Jul-Sep 2019 | |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | $9.948B | $10.660B |
Gross Profit | $4.397B | $4.871B |
Operating Income | $1.334B | $1.543B |
Net Income | $1.092B | $1.337B |
With sales and profits up much more than inflation it is difficult to conclude that the ad hurt. In addition, Nike's stock price is up about 15% since the ad ran versus about 3% for the S&P500:

Americans generally like the idea of taxing other people to provide benefits for people like themselves.
But not surprisingly, redistributive policies become less popular as more details about them become known — one reason some Democrats are worried that initial public support for proposals like "Medicare for all" and guaranteed free tuition to public two- and four-year colleges will eventually wane.
In the Swedish experiment, when survey respondents learned they were higher on the income spectrum than they thought they were, they became less generous in their attitudes toward policies that would distribute money away from people like them. That logic works in the other direction, too: Redistributive policies might be more popular if lower-earning households who perceive themselves as higher on the income ladder knew where they truly stood.
A real-world example occurred after the 2015 State of the Union address, in which President Obama proposed ending tax benefits for college savings accounts (most of the balances in such accounts were held by families making at least $200,000 a year). More than 90 percent of American married couples made less than that, but Mr. Obama abandoned the proposal within a week under political pressure from both parties.
Writing about the episode for The New York Times, Josh Barro offered this summary: "The first rule of modern tax policy is raise taxes only on the rich. The second rule is that your family isn't rich, even if you make a lot of money."
I suspect, however, that filtering the money through some government agency is necessary for most people's self-esteem. Voting yourself a certain amount from your neighbor's paycheck to be directly deposited in your bank account would probably have less support than raising taxes on your neighbor and using the benefits indirectly.
It seems that there should be some way to run an experiment to determine how this works.
Instead, this is an image of SpaceX's Starship Mk1 prototype.

"The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed."The United States economy seems to be qualitatively different than other major developed market economies. Specifically, the US economy seems to have a much larger contribution from technology firms:
Sector | US | Dev. Markets | Europe | China | Japan |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Technology | 20.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 15.6% | 5.8% |
Financials | 19.4% | 23.4% | 20.6% | 28.8% | 13.1% |
Consumer Services | 13.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 15.1% | 11.8% |
Industrials | 13.6% | 16.2% | 15.4% | 10.8% | 22.2% |
Health Care | 12.9% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 5.2% | 9.2% |
Consumer Goods | 7.8% | 16.2% | 18.2% | 12.0% | 23.8% |
Oil & Gas | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
Utilities | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
Basic Materials | 2.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% |
Telecommunications | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 5.9% |
US: | |||||
ex-US Developed Markets: | |||||
Europe: | |||||
China: | |||||
Japan: |
Looking at the top companies by market capitalization makes the point even more concrete ("technology" companies highlighted):
USA | China | Europe | Other | ||||
(1) Microsoft | $1,027B | (7) Alibaba | $438B | (14) Nestle | $308B | (19) Samsung | $269B |
(2) Amazon | $932B | (8) Tencent | $430B | (20) Shell | $265B | (39) TSMC | $203B |
(3) Apple | $911B | (15) ICBC | $295B | (24) Roche | $240B | (47) Femsa | $173B |
(4) Alphabet | $752B | (30) CN Ping | $228B | (34) LVMH | $215B | (50) Toyota | $167B |
(5) Facebook | $551B | (31) CCB | $218B | (37) Novartis | $209B | (59) BHP Billiton | $147B |
(6) Berkshire | $520B | (42) China Mobile | $185B | (46) Inbev | $173B | (69) Tata | $125B |
(9) Visa | $379B | (44) AgriBank of C | $180B | HSBC | $169B | (75) Reliance | $119B |
(10) J&J | $370B | (45) Moutai | $180B | (51) SAP | $166B | (81) Bank of Can. | $114B |
(11) JP Morgan Chase | $363B | (48) Petro China | $173B | (54) L'Oreal | $160B | (90) Toronto Bank | $107B |
(12) Exxon | $324B | (57) Bank of China | $150B | (55) Unilever | $159B | (94) Comm. Bank | $103B |
(13) Wal-Mart | $315B | (66) AIA | $131B | (60) Total | $145B | (95) Naspers | $103B |
(16) Bank of America | $284B | (67) Merchants Bank | $130B | (62) BP | $142B | ||
(17) P&G | $275B | (92) China Life | $105B | (66) Medtroinic | $131B | ||
(18) Mastercard | $270B | (73) Novo Nordisk | $121B | ||||
(21) Walt Disney | $251B | (84) Airbus | $110B | ||||
(22) AT&T | $245B | (85) Linda | $109B | ||||
(23) Pfizer | $241B | (86) Astrazeneca | $108B | ||||
(25) Chevron | $237B | (91) Rio Tinto | $106B | ||||
(26) Verizon | $236B | (98) Allianz | $102B | ||||
(27) Cisco | $234B | (99) Diageo | $102B | ||||
(28) United Health | $232B | ||||||
(29) Home Depot | $229B | ||||||
|
The interesting bit isn't that the largest US companies are larger than the largest non-US companies. The interesting bit is the mix of industries represented by the largest companies.
The largest European tech company is SAP. Which is maybe comparable to Oracle (#41 with a market capitalization of $190B). Europe doesn't have anything comparable to Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, or Facebook.
China has Alibaba and Tencent, but then looks a lot like a "normal" early 21st century developed country with lots of capitalization in banks, energy and telecom companies.
Something to remember is that ordering by market capitalization will miss companies that are important, but not public. It will also miss large clusters of small companies. Many law firms are not public and so won't show up on a list of large public companies. A good example of "important but not public" is railroads, where the largest railroads based on 2018 revenue were:
Railway | Revenue | Market Cap |
---|---|---|
Deutsche Bahn | $51B | Govt Owned |
SNCF | $40B | Govt Owned |
JSC Russian Railways | $39B | Govt Owned |
Indian Railways | $29B | Govt Owned |
East Japan Railway Company | $28B | $36B |
BNSF Railway | $21B | Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary |
Union Pacific | $21B | $115B |
Central Japan Railway Company | $17B | $41B |
West Japan Railway Company | $14B | $16B |
CSX | $11B | $55B |
Railroads are clearly a non-trivial thing in Europe, but the largest railroad by market capitalization is Union Pacific. It is likely that Deutsche Bahn and SNCF are larger components of the European economy than the Union Pacific is of the US's.
Still, it very much appears that that the US economy consists of substantially more technology than the rest of the world. China may well be next (and, in fact, seems to have an economy that looks more like the US than Europe does!), but the US seems to be further down this path than everyone else — possibly much like Great Britain a few decades into the industrial revolution.
"If it tastes good, spit it out."
- 1936 Summer Olympics:
Luz Long
Sportsmanship: "... [Jesse] Owens fouled on his first two jumps. Knowing that he needed to reach at least 7.15 m (about 23 feet 3 inches) on his third jump in order to advance to the finals in the afternoon, Owens sat on the field, dejected.
Speaking to Long's son, Owens said in 1964 that Long went to him and told him to try to jump from a spot several inches behind the take-off board. Since Owens routinely made distances far greater than the minimum of 7.15 m required to advance, Long surmised that Owens would be able to advance safely to the next round without risking a foul trying to push for a greater distance."
- 1952 Summer Olympics:
Emil Zátopek
After winning gold in the 5,000 and 10,000 meter races he decided at the last minute to run in the marathon (how does that work???). He has never run a marathon in his life. He not only won the marathon, but set an Olympic record doing so.
- 1988 Winter Olympics:
Jamaican Bobsled Team
- 1988 Winter Olympics:
Eddie the Eagle
- 2002 Winter Olympics:
Steven Bradbury
Steven Bradbury wins Gold in the 1000 meter speed skating event. To qualify, he won his semi-final race when two of the other four competitors fell and another was disqualified. In the finals, he was far enough behind the other four racers than when there was another pileup with all four other racers going down Steven was able to skate around the pileup and win the race.
And Swedish moms competing in curling at the Olympics!
There were three fairly obvious ways to avoid this shortfall:
- Contribute more money to the pensions.
- Promise fewer benefits.
- Get higher returns on the pension investments.
But to do this we need to be very clear about the players. The players in this (simplified version of our) drama include the following:
- The taxpayers 30 years or so ago.
- The government employees 30 years or so ago.
- The politicians 30 years or so ago.
- The taxpayers today.
- The politicians today.
- The taxpayers 30 years or so ago want services at a low cost
- The government employees 30 years or so ago want high total compensation
- The politicians 30 years or so ago want to upset neither group I or II.
- Contribute more money to the pensions upsets the taxpayers.
- Promising less compensation upsets the government employees
- Assuming high returns on the pension investments makes everyone happy
We don't even need to assume corrupt and venal politicians. People often find it easy to sincerely believe what it is convenient to believe.
But the investment returns didn't show up and the players today are:
- The government employees from 30 years ago, now government retirees.
- The taxpayers today.
- The politicians today.
The taxpayers today don't want to pay more in taxes then absolutely necessary and often don't feel responsible for promises made by other folks 30 years ago.
The politicians today are trying to avoid getting yelled at.
But the fundamental problem is that one set of people —
politicians and taxpayers from 30 years ago — made promises that
can't be fulfilled while a different set of people — taxpayers
today — are on the hook for meeting those obligations. There is no
obvious way to avoid being unfair to either the retired government employees
who expect to be paid what was agreed or the taxpayers today who had nothing
to do with the agreement.
There is no obvious "justice" here unless it is considered fair for people thirty years ago to sign up other people to pay lots more in taxes ("Your parents voted thirty years ago that I get 5% of your paycheck. Pay up!"). And it obviously isn't fair to stiff people out of promised pensions ("You believed that you were going to get paid in thirty years???"). but the people who made the promises aren't expected to pay and the people who were promised expect to get paid, so ...
19-October-2019: An Example
The Dutch government pension funds are starting to have a difficult time meeting people's expected payouts. This is because the rate of return the fund uses is conservative — it is tied to the interest rates paid by government bonds and those interest rates are now negative! Some folks in charge of the funds think that the problem can be fixed by assuming a higher rate of return:
Actuaries make assumptions about how long pensioners will live, count up the future payments that have been promised to them and then use an assumed interest rate to "discount" how much must be put away to pay them.Bolding added by me. I'll note that assuming a higher return going forward does not actually make the fund solvent. The fund will be solvent if it has enough money in the future to pay our future claims. It will be insolvent if it does not. Assuming a higher return going forward does, however, allow the folks in charge today to avoid making unpleasant decisions about cutting benefits or raising taxes...
The lower this interest rate, "rekenrente" in Dutch, the more conservative the accounting, and the more it costs to meet future liabilities.
The rekenrente is derived from government bond yields -- which have turned negative across Europe as interest rates steadily fell this summer.
Each 1% fall in interest rates has led to roughly a 12% fall in the coverage ratio between assets and liabilities in pension pots, the Dutch central bank says. As a January deadline approaches, cuts appear inevitable.
That has led several funds and some experts to argue that the rekenrente, which is around 0.3%, should be raised instead. Many blame ECB policy and see its effects as temporary.
Increasing the rekenrente to 2% or 3% would restore the funds to full solvency. Corien Wortmann-Kool, the chairwoman of the 456 billion euro ABP civil servants fund, told Reuters she opposes pension cuts as "unnecessary" for now.
"We believe we can achieve good returns, now and in the future," she said, estimating a 4% return over time is achievable despite low interest rates.
20-October-2019: Details on the Largest Dutch Pension Fund
The largest Dutch government pension fund, ABP, is invested as follows:
37% | Fixed Income |
35% | Equity (stocks) |
17% | Alternatives (private equity, hedge funds, commodities, ...) |
10% | Property |
A smaller fund, PMT, is invested like this:
51% | Fixed Income (aimed at matching liabilities) |
30% | Equity (private equity here, not in alternatives) |
10% | Property |
9% | High Yield (?) |
ABP's 15-year target return (2018 - 2033) is 5%. With 37% of the fund invested in bonds, the safest of which have a negative return.
The story is consistent with western views about Japanese and samurai and honor.
What strikes a westerner as odd is that the samurai were criticized by their contemporary, Yamamoto Tsunetomo (1659 - 1719). Tsunetomo's criticism was that the rōnin would have been forever disgraced if the man who they were planning to kill had died before they were able to execute their revenge. No one would have believed that they were waiting rather than simply avoiding their duty to avenge him. Better to immediately launch a guaranteed to fail attempt at revenge than to risk disgrace if their target died while they were preparing.
Guaranteed failure is preferred over a plan with some chance of failure, but also some chance of shame!
From Wikipedia:
Ōishi [the leader of the rōnin] was too obsessed with success, according to Yamamoto. He conceived his convoluted plan to ensure that they would succeed at killing Kira [the man responsible for his master's death], which is not a proper concern in a samurai: the important thing was not the death of Kira, but for the former samurai of Asano [the master] to show outstanding courage and determination in an all-out attack against the Kira house, thus winning everlasting honor for their dead master. Even if they had failed to kill Kira, even if they had all perished, it would not have mattered, as victory and defeat have no importance. By waiting a year, they improved their chances of success but risked dishonoring the name of their clan, the worst sin a samurai can commit.
This seems odd to this westerner.
One also wonders if this approach helped the Japanese lose World War 2 more quickly than necessary. If the objection that a plan is doomed to failure isn't seen as a good objection one can imagine tactics and strategies that help lose, rather than win, the war.
This question is maybe not as stupid as it appears to the folks who are appalled that it is asked.
Some things are, in fact, fine to not bother learning. Things such as the three principal exports of Peru. Which seem to be (a) copper ore, (b) gold, and (c) refined copper. Or things such as the name of the 20th US president (James A. Garfield. Also acceptable is "who cares?").
Other things seems a bit more fundamental. There is value in knowing how math works even if one has access to a calculator. Partially because one might then recognize when a problem or question is amenable to math.
But there is a more fundamental reasons to know "things".
Google won't tell you what questions to ask
It is impractical to fact check every claim one runs across. Google can help with the fact checking, but Google won't tell you which facts should be checked. You'll need background information to form a sense of pieces that "don't quite make sense" or "sound wrong."
And Google won't help you to ask interesting questions at all. YOU are responsible for doing this. And interesting questions often come about when two facts bump into each other.
And Google is very poor at inventing solutions. If you expect that someone else has always answered any question you might ask, then, again, Google may be enough. If you expect to ever want to answer a new question, then Google might be a tool, but it isn't the solution.
It is impractical to fact check every claim one runs across. Google can help with the fact checking, but Google won't tell you which facts should be checked. You'll need background information to form a sense of pieces that "don't quite make sense" or "sound wrong."
And Google won't help you to ask interesting questions at all. YOU are responsible for doing this. And interesting questions often come about when two facts bump into each other.
And Google is very poor at inventing solutions. If you expect that someone else has always answered any question you might ask, then, again, Google may be enough. If you expect to ever want to answer a new question, then Google might be a tool, but it isn't the solution.
If your plan is to be a very good drone that can do whatever is (reasonably) asked then you may be able to Google most things. But you'll be doing what someone else wants and extending their thoughts, not having your own thoughts.
... while the recent trend is to say smart teams don't pay running backs big money, stemming from the belief they're a dime a dozen and less important than they used to be in today's pass-happy era, it's obvious the Cowboys' chances of winning a Super Bowl are greater with Elliott than without him.Underline added by me. The primary problem with this is that it is NOT obvious.
If Elliott was working for the NFL league minimum it would be obvious that having him on the team was better than not having him on the team.
But Elliott isn't working for the league minimum. Instead, the contract guarantees $28 million and probably costs Dallas about $10 - $15 million per year that Elliott is on the team.
The question then becomes if the team is better having Elliott and ALSO having $10 - $15 million less to sign other players. The cost isn't the money — the NFL has both a salary cap and a salary minimum that is not much less than the cap. The cost is the players that Dallas cannot sign because of the Elliott contract.
This still might be a good deal, but it can't be obvious until one knows the price.
2025: Well, the contract is over.
Zeke signed a six year, $90 million contract with the Cowboys in 2019 and earned 55.6% of it, or a bit over $50 million, in four seasons. In those four seasons he rushed for 1357, 979, 1002 and 876 yards while averaging a bit over 4 yards/carry. His yards/game for the contract was: 84.8, 65.3, 58.9 and 58.4.
In 2019 he was 4th in the NFL in total rushing yards, in 2020 he was 11th, in 2021 7th and in 2022 22nd.
1 | Clemson | ACC |
2 | Alabama | SEC |
3 | Georgia | SEC |
4 | Oklahoma | Big 12 |
5 | Ohio State | Big 10 |
6 | LSU | SEC |
7 | Michigan | Big 10 |
8 | Notre Dame | Independent |
9 | Texas | Big 12 |
10 | Auburn | SEC |
11 | Florida | SEC |
12 | Texas A&M | SEC |
13 | Utah | Pac 12 |
14 | Washington | Pac 12 |
15 | Penn State | Big 10 |
SEC teams have two of the top four slots, three of the top six and six of the top 12. The top ranked Pac-12 team is #13.
I don't expect the final poll to be this lopsided because too many of these SEC teams play each other, but we can certainly start the "SEC if overrated" whining now!
3-October-2019: I Now Track This Systematically
Since I tend to check this occasionally I created a full length document to track NCAA Football rankings and display graphically how the various Power 5 conference are doing.
"Heart disease effects many Americans ... <beat> ... and also many of our loved ones."My employer has a large number of employees born outside America. Including the speaker.
"I will always trust Russians on the subject of misery."Previous entries:
Given the current global population of about 7.5 billion (based on our most recent estimate as of mid-2017), that means those of us currently alive represent about 7 percent of the total number of humans who have ever lived.Don't give up! The odds are better than most people think!
From: Grand ménage <info@grand-menage.com>
Sent: Thursday, August 29, 2019 7:19 AM
To: LastName, FirstName <First.Last@my-employer.com>
Subject: [EXTERNAL]: Demande de soumission de Grand ménage
Téléphone :
Jour : 84231355823
Soir : 83838683786
Votre demande :
Invest $ 5,000 in Bitcoin once and get $ 70,000 passive income per month: https://chogoon.com/srt/bvudo?&ygtgf=DHXz2Y5P
--
Cet e-mail a été envoyé via le formulaire de demande de soumission de Grand ménage.
Merci de la part de notre équipe d'experts.
Well! $70,000 passive income per month for a one-time $5,000 sounds quite attractive!
This does, however, require some investigation before sending in my $5,000:
- Good news is that the 'Jour' ('day' as in 'bon jour!') phone number might have a Vietnam country code (84) and
French is most certainly used in Vietnam. So this probably isn't a scam.
Bad news is that '8' is the Russian country code, and '842' routes toUlyanovsk Oblast . If so, this might be a scam.
The 'Soir' (evening) number is either an '8', Russia and thus probably a scam ... or ... '83' which is Italy ... where they don't use a lot of French. Hmmmmm....
- The provided chogoon.com URL (chogoon seems to be a URL shortener) returns a 404 error message.
Darn it! That's not going to help.
grand-menage.com goes to a real company ... in Quebec ... where they use French! A good sign. These folks might have an office in Vietnam! To provide an international presence for the ... cleaning services that they offer. When not investing in bitcoin.
- Search: We're looking for the 'best' choice and lots of
options are on the table.
- Decision: It is time to make a choice. The timing for this is
often forced if there is a schedule with a required delivery date. Sometimes the timing for
this is arbitrary to avoid stalling. Here you make the best choice
you can with the available information.
- Commitment: The decision can still be re-visited, but only if the current choice endangers the success of the project. In other words, a choice that will still allow for success is not to be changed until after the project is delivered.
- You can use this strategy for multiple different choices and each choice will have its own timeline.
- You can revisit any choice after the thing you are working on has been delivered. But you should deliver the thing first!
- Don't treat these rules as inviolable, but keep in mind the danger of not closing on decisions.
NASA Administrator Says Pluto Is Still a Planet, And Things Are Getting HeatedIf
MICHELLE STARR
26 AUG 2019
Saturday 24 August 2019 marked a vexing anniversary for planetary scientists. It was 13 years to the day that Pluto's official definition changed - what was once numbered among the planets of the Solar System was now but a humble dwarf planet.
But not everyone agreed with the International Astronomical Union's ruling - and now NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine has added his voice to the chorus declaring support for Pluto's membership in the Solar System Planet Club.
"Just so you know, in my view, Pluto is a planet," he said during a tour of the Aerospace Engineering Sciences Building at the University of Colorado Boulder.
"You can write that the NASA Administrator declared Pluto a planet once again. I'm sticking by that, it's the way I learnt it, and I'm committed to it."
...
One proposed 'work around' for employers is to use proxies for the desired traits. Since one of the traits desired is intelligence (a useful trait for almost any job), some folks have hypothesized that college enrollment has soared since Griggs. One example of such hypothesizing is:
As this paper will show, "Griggs v. Duke Power" may have enormously boosted the number of students in college and may have increased the differential in income between high school and college graduates.We can see the jump here:
Year | % Bachelor's or Higher US Individuals Ages 25 to 34 |
---|---|
1940 | 6% |
1950 | 6% |
1960 | 11% |
1970 | 16% |
1980 | 24% |
1990 | 24% |
2000 | 29% |
2009 | 32% |
Or, rather, we don't see the jump. From 1970 to 1980 the upward trend in US college attendance that had been present since the end of World War 2 continued. Looking at related data for the world finds this:

Since Griggs should not have been able to effect non-US companies, a more plausible story is that college attendance trends are up world wide since 1970 and the US is part of the world.
Do deaf people text in ASL?
Almost anything can be differentiated — at least to some audience — but examples of goods that are purchased by consumers and often seen as (at least mostly) brand interchangeable include:
- Gasoline
- Table Salt
- White Rice
- Computer DRAM
- Double Edge Safety Razors
Products that forty years ago were clearly commodity (water, white bread, milk, ...) have today often been successfully branded. Bottled water often sells for more per gallon than gasoline, as one example.
So it is interesting to see an industry intentionally commoditizing itself.
Yet this is exactly what the airline industry has (mostly) done with
The idea behind code-sharing is that you might book with United and instead get a seat on an Air New Zealand flight. Or vice versa.
I discovered code-sharing about twenty years ago when my wife and I were flying to New Zealand. We had heard good things about Air New Zealand and figured that paying a bit more to fly Air New Zealand was worth trying for a flight that was going to take 12+ hours. So we carefully specified to our travel agent (remember those?) that we'd like to go with Air New Zealand if it wasn't too expensive.
We got our Air New Zealand tickets and discovered when we got to the airport that we would be flying on (going from memory here ...) United Airlines from Los Angeles to Aukland!
Amazing!
It felt like requesting a Porsche and having Porsche itself tell you that they were sending over a Volkswagon because the two cars were basically equivalent!
The airline industry is often noted as one with very high customer price sensitivity.
A Reuters/IPSOS poll indicates that 83% of airline customers place ticket prices as their top priority. 52% of respondents said they would not pay more to fly on their airline of preference. Both marks are higher than what some execs might have expected.I wonder how much of this price sensitivity is encouraged by the airline industry signaling that the airlines are all basically alike?
Ordinarily if you are a shareholder in a controversial and heavily shorted company, and one day the CEO quits unexpectedly and announces that his bags are packed for South America, that is — you know, you hate to see it. Overstock's stock price was up 8.3% yesterday.
CoWorkerName's solution to thethree body problem is to remove one of the bodies.
I had never seen the back of anA.1. bottle.
And now it looks as if WeWork is going to go public. This is a company with a $47B valuation that also has pretty large losses. The business is to re-lease office space that it has leased from its CEO (no conflict of interest there!). For those of us who lived through the
Year | Company | Annual | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Founded | Name | Valuation | Revenue | Earnings | |
2009 | Uber | $60B | Public | $12B | ($4B) |
2010 | WeWork | $47B | Private | $1.8B | ($1.6B) |
2008 | AirBnB | $35B | Private | $4B+ | $0.1B? |
2006 | $31B | Public | $3B | $1.2B | |
2006 | Spotify | $26B | Public | $5.5B | ($0.078B) |
2003 | Palantir | $20B - $40B | Private | $1B | |
2011 | SnapChat | $22B | Public | $1.5B | ($1.2B) |
2012 | Lyft | $15B | Public | $3B+ | ($1B) |
2010 | $10B | Private | $0.8B | ($0.063B) | |
2008 | DropBox | $7.2B | Public | $1.5B | ($0.5B) |
2004 | Yelp | $2.5B | Public | $1B | $0.055B |
2008 | Groupon | $1.3B | Public | $2.6B | ($0.011B) |
2013 | Zenefits | ??? | Private | ??? | ??? |
Superficially, things do looks similar. What I don't see, however, is absolutely insane valuations in established companies accompanying this.
The original dotcom boom included the following:
- Nortel with a market cap of $283 billion. It ended bankrupt.
- Lucent at $285 billion. It ended merged with Alcatel in 2006. Nokia owns what is left.
- Cisco at $555 billion. It subsequently dropped 85%.
- AOL at $220 billion. It sold out to Time-Warner at the peak.
- Yahoo at $125 billion.
- Oracle at $137 billion dropping 85% from peak to trough.
- Sun Microsystem at $116 billion acquired by Oracle for less than $10 billion in 2009.
- Microsoft at $533 billion.
- Facebook ($500B market cap) is profitable and has a P/E ratio of about 30.
- Apple ($900B market cap) is solidly profitable and has a moderate P/E ratio of 23.
- Amazon ($900B market cap) is profitable, though with a high P/E ratio of 75.
- Netflix ($132B market cap) is profitable, though with a high P/E ratio of over 100.
- Google ($817B market cap) is solidly profitable and has a moderate P/E ratio of 24.
And, in fact, every jet fighter deployed by any country since then seems to have been designed with a gun.
A few dedicated interceptor aircraft (Mig-25, Tupolev-28) intended to shoot down high altitude supersonic bombers have been gun-less, but no aircraft intended as a general "fighter" has been produced without a gun since the F-4 Phantom.
The number of bullets or cannon shells available to the pilot has been dropping over time, though, and one could imagine a curve implying that sometime in the future fighter jets would deploy with a gun, but only one round.
Sadly, this is not the case. This table shows the number of rounds for each plane since the F-4 Phantom. It appears to have bottomed out at a bit over 100. Sigh.
Year | Country | Aircraft | Gun | Rounds |
1965 | Soviet Union | Sukhoi 15 | 2×23 mm | ??? |
1970 | Soviet Union | Mig 23 | 1×23 mm | 260 |
1974 | United States | F-14 | 1×20 mm | 675 |
1976 | United States | F-15 | 1×20 mm | 940 |
1978 | United States | F-16 | 1×20 mm | 511 |
1978 | United States | F-18 A-D | 1×20 mm | 578 |
1980 | China | J-8 | 1×23 mm | ??? |
1981 | Soviet Union | Mig 31 | 1×23 mm | 260 |
1982 | Soviet Union | Mig 29 A | 1×30 mm | 150 |
1984 | France | Mirage 2000 | 2×30 mm | 2×125 |
1985 | United Kingdom | Tornado | 1×27 mm | 180 |
1985 | Soviet Union | Sukhoi 27 | 1×30 mm | 150 |
1986 | United Kingdom | Hawk 200 | 1×30 mm | 120 |
1994 | Taiwan | AIDC F-CK-1 | 1×20 mm | ??? |
1996 | Sweden | Gripen A | 1×27 mm | 120 |
1999 | United States | F-18 E-F | 1×20 mm | 412 |
2003 | France | Dassault Rafale | 1×30 mm | 125 |
2003 | Europe | Eurofighter Typhoon | 1×27 mm | 150 |
2005 | United States | F-22 | 1×20 mm | 480 |
2006 | China | J-10 | 1×23 mm | 280 |
2015 | United States | F-35 A | 1×20 mm | 180 |
2019 | Russia | Mig 35 | 1×30 mm | 150 |
2019 | Russia | Sukhoi 57 | 1×30 mm | ??? |
- Sukhoi 35 is treated as a Sukhoi 27 derivative.
- Mig 27 is primarily a ground attack aircraft. It has a gun.
- Mig 25 is a bomber interceptor, not a dog-fighter. It has no gun.
- F-117 is a bomber in spite of its fighter "F" designation.
A few days later Uber reported losses for its second quarter of a bit over $5 billion.
Neither of these were what they seem.
Because of some "quirks" of GAAP accounting rules, a company can report massive "loses" without actually having less money in its checking account (and often without even losing any thing of tangible value). Both of these are examples of this and it is important to understand how "earnings" are defined before one gets excessively excited or depressed by announced earnings.
In the case of P&G, the losses are because in 2005 P&G purchased Gillette for a fair amount above book value. In such a purchase, the excess value must appear on the balance sheet of the acquiring company as accounting goodwill. If, at some time in the future, the acquiring company decides that the purchased company isn't as valuable as had been supposed, the goodwill must be (partially or entirely) written off. This is what happened for P&G. Gillette's sales and profits have noticeably slumped and P&G must reflect that in its balance sheet. Accounting rules require that balance sheet changes be accompanied by entries in the income (or loss) statements, so writing down the goodwill requires reporting a loss. But P&G isn't short $5 billion (or $8 billion) from a checking account.
And note that an internally grown division whose profits drop a lot does not require that a loss be reported. The goodwill writeoff for Gillette only applies to bits of the company that were purchased rather than grown internally.
Possibly the most extreme versions of this were seen at the end of the 2000 dot-com boom. At the end of 2001, JDS Uniphase wrote down $56 billion in goodwill for a variety of companies it had purchased with (overpriced!) JDS Uniphase stock.
A year later, at the end of 2002, Time-Warner wrote down almost $100 billion in goodwill because of the AOL purchase.
Yet another accounting loss (though one that is a bit more "real" for shareholders) is when a company must expense stock options. In this case, the basic idea is that the company has handed out something with a value (stock) below the true value of that something (options are only valuable if you can purchase the stock below market price) and so the difference must be reflected in the company's income statement.
As with goodwill, the company checking account isn't short the money, but in this case the company IS poorer than it would have been if the stock had been sold at the market value and the company kept the cash. So this loss is more 'real' than the goodwill writeoffs, but still qualitatively different than the company being out $5 billion in cash.
Meanwhile, in January 2019, Gillette had released a commercial claiming among other things that "men need to hold other men accountable". This commercial resulted in both praise and backlash with the backlash centered on (mostly) men feeling that they did not need Gillette to lecture them. Gillette then released another commercial in May, this one of a man shaving his trans-gendered son which, again, generated praise and backlash.
Some folks were ready to claim that the $8 billion dollar write down of Gillette was a direct result of these commercials. It almost certainly was not.
The first thing to do is to look at Gillette sales and profits. Unfortunately, we can't do that because P&G doesn't release Gillette specific financial numbers. We can, however, look at the "grooming" market segment for which Gillette does release financial information and which includes Gillette. What we find is this:
FY | Revenue | Net Earnings | |
---|---|---|---|
FY 2008 (Aug 07 - Jul 08) | $8.254B | $1.679B | |
FY 2009 (Aug 08 - Jul 09) | $7.408B | $1.359B | 2008 recession |
FY 2010 (Aug 09 - Jul 10) | $7.631B | $1.477B | 2008 recession |
FY 2011 (Aug 10 - Jul 11) | $8.245B | $1.775B | |
FY 2012 (Aug 11 - Jul 12) | $8.339B | $1.807B | |
FY 2013 (Aug 12 - Jul 13) | $8.038B | $1.837B | |
FY 2014 (Aug 13 - Jul 14) | $8.009B | $1.954B | |
FY 2015 (Aug 14 - Jul 15) | $7.441B | $1.787B | Drop begins |
FY 2016 (Aug 15 - Jul 16) | $6.815B | $1.548B | |
FY 2017 (Aug 16 - Jul 17) | $6.642B | $1.573B | |
FY 2018 (Aug 17 - Jul 18) | $6.551B | $1.432B | |
FY 2019 (Aug 18 - Jul 19) | $6.119B | $1.528B |
It is clear that the revenue was pretty stable at between $8 billion and $8⅓ billion for the fiscal years between 2008 and 2014 excluding two years of very bad 2008 recession. At the same time, the earnings were slowly increasing from $1⅔ billion to a peak of almost $2 billion in FY2014, again removing two years of bad 2008 recession. This is followed by a visible collapse in both sales and profits beginning in FY 2015.
A Forbes article in early 2019 points out that:
... Gillette has come under increasing competition from low priced competitors such as Dollar Shave Club and Harry's, along with a resurgent Schick who is offering refill cartridges that fit Gillette razors, its market share has dropped from 70% to 50% over the past decade. Gillette has been forced to drop the price of its razors by about 15% over the past few years and is on the verge of losing master brand status.It makes sense to see the 2019 advertisements as a response to this substantial drop in both sales and earnings rather than the advertisements being a cause of the sales and earning drops reported in 2019! 2019 was the fifth year in a row showing a drop in sales, earnings or both.
The $8B write down is also not what it initially appears.
Gillette was acquired by P&G in 2005 and as part of the acquisition a large amount of accounting "goodwill" needed to appear on P&G's balance sheet. This $8B write down is essentially an acknowledgement by P&G that it overpaid for Gillette and it must now acknowledge that overpayment by writing down the goodwill. Writing down the goodwill must appear in the earnings, thus the $8B write down. But P&G hasn't lost $8B in the sense that P&G's bank account is $8B lower than before the write down. This is purely a book-keeping event.
It does, however, strongly suggest that P&G believes it unlikely that the Gillette sales and earnings will be returning to 2012-2014 levels any time soon, if at all.
Gillette's 2020 grooming numbers continued the slide:
FY | Revenue | Net Earnings | |
---|---|---|---|
FY 2019 (Aug 18 - Jul 19) | $6.119B | $1.528B | |
FY 2020 (Aug 19 - Jul 20) | $6.069B | $1.329B |
The grooming segment's revenue and earnings are now lower than at the bottom of the 2008 recession.
- The Competition
- The Opposition
- The Enemy
You can try to beat someone you otherwise like in a competition. For much of their careers Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlin had this relationship. It is easier to have this relationship if one either (a) is fundamentally on the same team as the other person (e.g. US Army and US Navy), or (b) realizes that the competition doesn't fundamentally matter as in a sporting competition. Another good word to describe the competition is a rival.
You can oppose someone who you believe to be truly, horrifically wrong without believing that person to be evil. Erwin Rommel's British army opponents seemed to feel that way about Rommel. Rommel had to be defeated, but there was no personal animosity towards the man who was doing his duty to his own country.
Random Nazis were the enemy. There was personal animosity towards them because they were "the bad guys" in a way that Erwin Rommel was not.
Player 1 | Player 2 | |
Position | CF | CF |
Plate Appearances | 7831 | 7980 |
At Bats | 7244 | 6858 |
Runs | 1071 | 1251 |
Hits | 2304 | 1949 |
Doubles | 414 | 437 |
Triples | 57 | 25 |
Home Runs | 207 | 393 |
RBIs | 1085 | 1199 |
Stolen Bases | 134 | 67 |
Caught Stealing | 76 | 50 |
Walks | 450 | 998 |
Strikeouts | 965 | 1729 |
Batting Average | 0.318 | 0.284 |
On Base Percentage | 0.360 | 0.376 |
Slugging Percentage | 0.477 | 0.527 |
On Base + Slugging | 0.837 | 0.903 |
OPS+ | 124 | 125 |
Rookie of the Year | 3rd | 8th |
MVPs | 0 | 0 |
Golden Gloves | 6 | 8 |
Silver Sluggers | 6 | 1 |
All Stars | 10 | 4 |
World Series | 2-0 | 1-1 |
These two players both played center field and have roughly similar statistics. But one of these was voted into the MLB Hall of Fame on his first eligible ballot. The other player failed to get enough votes to stay on the ballot after his first year of eligibility and is not in the Hall of Fame.
There are several differences that contributed to one getting in on the first ballot and the second being dropped from consideration after the first ballot.
- Player 2 was frequently injured and put up roughly the same number of plate
appearances over 17 years while player 1 had a career of just 12 years. Not counting
rookie years (when the player may fail to get to 600 plate appearances because
he was called up later in the season), Player 1 had only one seasons with fewer than
600 plate appearances. Player 2 had nine seasons with fewer than 600 plate appearances.
MLB rewards being healthy and able to play.
- Player 1 was worse at getting on base (OBP of .360 vs 0.376), but better at getting
hits and worse at drawing walks. MLB player evaluation prizes hits instead of walks.
MLB player evaluation probably should prize walks almost as much as hits,
but the folks making these judgements don't see things this way.
- The hits instead of walks combined with being healthier lead to Player 1 winning many more silver slugger awards (6 vs 1) and the better hitting lead to Player 1 going to more All Star games (10 vs 4).
Player 1 is
Suze Orman wants young people to stop "peeing" away millions of dollars on coffee. Last month, the personal-finance celebrity ignited a controversy on social media when a video she starred in for CNBC targeted a familiar villain: kids these days and their silly $5 lattes. Because brewing coffee at home is less expensive, Orman argued, purchasing it elsewhere is tantamount to flushing money away, which makes it a worthy symbol of Millennials' squandered resources.
...
The old guard of personal finance has spent years turning the habit of buying coffee into a shorthand for Americans’ profligacy, especially that of young Americans. Dave Ramsey, a finance personality who hosts a popular radio show on getting out of debt, says that forgoing lattes is one of four keys to saving thousands of dollars.
...
Finance media has seized on coffee in part because, in the space of a generation, how Americans drink coffee has changed dramatically. In 1994, Starbucks had fewer than 500 locations in the United States. Today, it has more than 14,000.
...
Millennials make up less than a quarter of the overall U.S. population, but in 2016, they drank an estimated 44 percent of the nation’s coffee.
So ...
How Large is the US Coffee Shop Market?
The US Coffee Shop industry includes more than 22,000 stores with combined annual revenue of about $12 billion.
If millennials are responsible for 44% of this, then millennials are spending about $5¼ billion per year on coffee shop coffee. If millennials are more likely to frequent coffee shops instead of getting their caffeine at home or McDonalds, maybe millennials are responsible for ... $8 billion of the $12 billion? It seems unlikely that they'd be responsible for more than this.
How Many Millennials are There?
Millennial population size varies, depending on the definition used. William Strauss and Neil Howe projected in their 1991 book Generations that the U.S. millennial population would be 76 million. In 2014, using dates ranging from 1982 to 2004, Neil Howe revised the number to over 95 million people (in the U.S.). In a 2012 Time magazine article, it was estimated that there were approximately 80 million U.S. Millennials. The United States Census Bureau, using birth dates ranging from 1982 to 2000, stated the estimated number of U.S. Millennials in 2015 was 83.1 million people.If we use 80 million as a good rough size for the millennial cohort, we then get this:
- 80 million millennials
- are spending up to $8 billion per year for coffee shop coffee
- which works out to millennials averaging no more than $100 per millennial per year for coffee shop coffee.
On average, $100/year (or about $8/month) for coffee shop coffee for folks between the ages of 23 and 38 probably isn't going to screw up their retirement plans.
Yes, $5/day ($25/week ... $100/month, $1,200/year) spent on coffee shop coffee is going to make a dent in any savings plan. But the typical millennial ISN'T DOING THAT!
14-August-2019: Yahoo has just run an article on Millenials and Avocados:
Millennials spent $453 million on avocados last year: StudySo, assuming 80 million millenials, this works out to about $5.50 per millenial per year for avocados. They're never going to save up a downpayment for a house with spending habits like this!
Millennials love avocados.
They love avocados enough to spend $453 million in 2018, according to a new study by the Hass Avocado Board.
23-August-2019: We can look at this 2018 Starbucks'
Starbucks claims about $17.4 billion revenue from US sales out of $24.7 billion world-wide including the US (p87). Starbucks also claims that $14.4 billion out of that $24.7 billion is for beverage sales (as opposed to food, packaged and single-serve coffees, etc.).
So, 14.4/24.7 is 58%, so about 55% of Starbucks' sales are beverages (not all coffee ... some will be tea) and Starbucks' sales in the US are $17.4 billion. 55% of $17.4 billion is about $9½ billion.
This is not totally out of line with the 2016 coffee numbers above, but the 2018 numbers are clearly higher and the 2016 numbers might understate the market. If Starbucks' has ~½ the coffee shop market (note that the next two biggest competitors to Starbucks for selling coffee are Dunkin' Donuts [small coffee: $1.59] and then McDonalds [medium coffee: $1.29] ... neither of which seem like stereotypical millenial overpriced coffee choices), then the market is closer to $20 billion than $12 billion and the millenial share might be ~$12B or $13B. So maybe $200/year per millenial on coffee shop coffee. Maybe. Higher, but still not enough on average to delay purchasing a house. Still, starting to get up there — $400 per year per couple can add up ... but probably not as much as a typical cable bill or cell phone data plan.
27-June-2022:
From
"Are you latte-ing away your future?" Bach asked in a 1999 book. 'Everyone makes enough money to become rich. What keeps us living paycheck to paycheck is that we spend more than we make on stuff we don't need."Bach then runs some math and assumes that a latte costs $5 (while at the time the typical Starbucks drink order was $2 - $2½) and that the 23-year-old person in question could get an 11% annualized return on saved/invested money. With these assumptions Bach concluded that the person would have more than $2M by age 65.
There are several problems with this analysis:
- The math doesn't work. Using these assumptions our 23-year old has "only"
around $1.5M saved up by age 65.
- The average price of a latte at Starbucks in 2000 was between $2 and $2.50.
If we use $2 instead of $5 then our 23-year-old has saved only $580,000. If $2.50 then
$730,000.
- The long term return of the US stock market (S&P 500 or equivalent) has been
around 10% in nominal terms. Using 10% rather than 11% gets us a final
saved value of $430,000 and $540,000.
- Inflation doesn't make one rich and 3 percentage points of the 10% annualized
return are due to inflation. If we calculate the REAL saving rather than
nominal we get between $180,000 and $225,000. $200,000 is a lot of money
compared to nothing, but also only 10% of $2M.
- And Bach couldn't know it, but the S&P 500 annualized return from Jan-2000 to Jun-2022 worked out to be 6.5% nominal (including re-invested dividends) rather than 10% or 11%. Adjusting for inflation and the annualized return was 4%. Assuming saving the price of a $2.50 latte per day for 42 years and a 4% stock market return and our 23-year-old has saved ... $100,000 in real terms. Not $2M.
If our young person saw only 4% real returns, as we have seen from 2000 - 2022, for the 42 years then she would need to save $20,000/year to have $2M at the end of 42 years.
"It is, of course, extremely toxic, but that's the least of the problem. It is hypergolic with every known fuel, and so rapidly hypergolic that no ignition delay has ever been measured. It is also hypergolic with such things as cloth, wood, and test engineers, not to mention asbestos, sand, and water — with which it reacts explosively. It can be kept in some of the ordinary structural metals — steel, copper, aluminium, etc. — because of the formation of a thin film of insoluble metal fluoride which protects the bulk of the metal, just as the invisible coat of oxide on aluminium keeps it from burning up in the atmosphere. If, however, this coat is melted or scrubbed off, and has no chance to reform, the operator is confronted with the problem of coping with a metal-fluorine fire. For dealing with this situation, I have always recommended a good pair of running shoes."
"The NFL still very much has a diversity problem in its head-coaching ranks..."Equivalent:
"The NFL still has too many white head coaches..."The article mentioned that the NFL is down to four black head coaches (out of 32), down from nine after five were fired after the 2018 season. The five were:
- Todd Bowles, NY Jets (14-34 for the last 3 seasons)
- Hue Jackson, Cleveland (3-36 over 2½ seasons)
- Vance Joseph, Denver (11-21 over 2 seasons)
- Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati (19-28 for the last 3 seasons; much better before that)
- Steve Wilks, Arizona (3-13 over 1 season)
First comment: Is the fatness of a pig more or less green than the designated hitter rule?
Reply:Purple. Because aliens don't wear hats
Still, the entire scheme breaks down when the king can't seem to produce an heir!
This situation has occurred many times in history, but a pair that I find interesting are
In both cases, the queen was failing to produce an heir and in both cases this was a very clear problem. For Henry VIII, the choice seems to have boiled down to:
- Recognize as heir Henry FitzRoy, a bastard son by another woman.
- Hope for a grandson by his daughter Mary before he died. The grandson would be king.
- Trade his current wife, Catherine, for a new one that (hopefully) would provide him with an heir.
In Sparta, 2000 years earlier, the Agiad king has a similar problem, but with fewer options: no known (to history, at least) bastard sons and no known (again, to history) daughters. The Spartan ephors tried to convince king Anaxandridas II to divorce his wife and take another. The king refused because he loved his wife and didn't blame her for the lack of an heir. The ephors then suggested that the king could take a second wife without divorcing the first. The king did this, the second wife produced an heir* and the problem was solved.
English history might have been quite different if Henry VIII had been permitted to take a second wife without divorcing Catherine.
(*) The first wife then produced a spare heir, too! And then two more! One of them grew up to be king Leonidas I, the Spartan king who died at the battle of Thermopyle.
One chart from the article is:

The spreads of probabilities for each word are interesting.
The outliers can be even more interesting, including the individuals who considered "likely" to mean less than a 50% chance and the individuals (maybe the same ones) who considered probably to mean less than a 50% chance.
Eventually it was announced that (some) money had been allocated to replace the extra-flamable cladding in other (non-burned) buildings. But ...
[in May, 2019] Peter Mason, the chair of the Barking Reach residents' association, contacted the builder Bellway Homes, requesting an investigation into the fire risk at his block of flats, following a BBC Watchdog report that revealed fire safety problems at two other Bellway developments. The company reassured him there was nothing to worry about. The wooden cladding had been treated so that it would take 30 minutes before a fire could take hold. "We understand that these news articles are highly alarming for all residents of new homes," the company responded. "And I hope that the above statement has allayed any fears you may have over the safety and construction of your Bellway home."Still working on this ...
On Sunday the cladding at De Pass Gardens, part of the Barking Reach development, caught fire in 70 seconds and soon consumed the building.
I'm not dirty, mommy. I'm just brown!
Co-worker: I have an idea! Let's take a walk and discuss it!
Me (to other co-workers): This is <co-worker's name's> equivalent to 'Hold my beer and watch this.'
- Phlegethon, a river of boiling blood and fire for violence against neighbors
- The suicide forest for violence against self
- A Plain of Burning Sand for violence against God
"We just witnessed two of the most unique ..."

- 60th Avenue
- 60th Court
- 60th Drive
- 60th Lane
- 60th Place
- 60th Road
- 60th Street
He signed a 1-year, $13M deal (essentially a 1-year ~$20M deal pro-rated to the rest of the season) with the Atlanta Braves. On April 7th, we got this:
Rosenthal cites a source that believes Keuchel is looking for a one-year deal above the $17.9 million qualifying offer he rejected from the Astros last fall, though he's still open to a long-term contract at lower terms than the original $150-200 million deal he was seeking over a six- or seven-year span.In the last three seasons, Dallas had the following stats (provided by
Year | IP | Hits | ER | BB | SO | ERA | WHIP | WAR |
2016 | 168 | 168 | 85 | 48 | 144 | 4.55 | 1.286 | 0.4 |
2017 | 145⅔ | 116 | 47 | 47 | 125 | 2.90 | 1.119 | 4.2 |
2018 | 204⅔ | 211 | 85 | 58 | 153 | 3.74 | 1.314 | 2.6 |
Going by Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Dallas ranked 26th of all MLB pitchers in 2018, 9th in 2017 (when he was injured ... he most likely would have ranked higher if he was not hurt), and 148th in 2016.
Dallas is 31, so his best seasons are likely behind him. $150M for six years (so $25M per year) seems ... high?
11-October-2019:
Dallas pitched a total of 19 regular season games for the Atlanta Braves. His stats looked like this:
Year | IP | Hits | ER | BB | SO | ERA | WHIP | WAR |
2019 | 112⅔ | 115 | 47 | 39 | 91 | 3.75 | 1.367 | 2.1 |
If we assume he could have stayed healthy through a full 2019 (not a forgone conclusion) season and scale his 19 starts up to 34 (roughly a full season), then his line looks something like this:
Year | IP | Hits | ER | BB | SO | ERA | WHIP | WAR |
2019 (full) | 200 | 200 | 83 | 70 | 162 | 3.75 | 1.367 | 3.7 |
Dallas also pitched in two games for a total of 8 innings in the post-season. His ERA for those innings was 4.5.
With a 3.7 WAR Dallas would have ranked about 25th among MLB pitchers. The players around him (with age in 2020 season) and their remaining contracts are:
WAR | Player | Age | Contract | Years | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
3.9 | Kyle Hendricks | 30 | $55.5M | 4 | $14.5 team option for 5th year |
3.7 | Anibal Sanchez | 36 | $13.0M | 1 | $12M team option for 2nd year |
3.7 | Aaron Nola | 27 | $40.5M | 3 | $12.5M team option for 4th year |
3.7 | Dallas Keuchel | 32 | — | — | Free agent |
3.6 | Jake Odorizzi | 30 | — | — | Free agent |
3.5 | Clayton Kershaw | 32 | $62.0M | 2 |
I'm thinking that Dallas is probably looking at 3 years and $45M for his next contract. It will be interesting to see what teams need for pitching, but there are also a number of good pitchers available as free agents heading into the 2020 season (Gerrit Cole, Steve Strasburgh, Madison Bumgarner, Aroldis Chapman, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi ...).
22-December-2019:
It appears that Dallas Keuchel has signed a 3-year, $55.5 million dollar contract with the Chicago White Sox.
28-May-2022:
It looks like Dallas Keuchel is going to be released. His three seasons look like this:
Year | ERA | WAR | |
---|---|---|---|
2020 | 1.99 | 2.1 | Covid shortened season |
2021 | 5.28 | 0.0 | |
2020 | 7.88 | -1.1 | Eight games |
The $55.5 million dollar contract (really ~$43M because of the covid shortened season) didn't work out for the White Sox. 1.0 WAR for $43M is a disappointment.
We provide Monkeys for any OccasionIt is difficult to get a clear cost to sponsor a PhD graduate student for one year and the costs probably vary based on institution and program, but a reasonable starting point might be NSF fellowships. NSF fellows
You can no longer rent chimpanzees, or use a trained chimp for your film or video production or live event. Rent a Monkey! Monkey Rental minimum cost is $1500 in CA and $1500 in NY and NJ
Another way to approach funding is to consider what a corporation would pay if it wanted to sponsor a graduate student for one year at $34,000. The "F&A" overhead would take about 60% of any sponsorship money. To get $34,000 to the graduate student would thus cost $34,000 × 1/(1.0 - 0.6) = $84,000. The monkey has overhead, too, so these numbers are sorta comparable.
We can convert the monkey's daily rate to a yearly rate by multiplying by 250 working days per year. Or we can convert to a 9-month school year rate by multiplying by about 180.
Grad Student: | $50,000/year — $84,000/year |
Monkey: | $270,000/year — $375,000/year |
One can imagine getting a better rate on the monkey if one was willing to hire it for a nine months or a full year, so maybe the monkey is equivalent to between three and six grad students depending on the length of time and whether most of the money for the grad student gets to the grad student or is siphoned off by the university.
The conclusion is obvious: Just because you can hire a monkey to do something does not mean that you should. Instead, hire a graduate student.
In 2007, during a business school lecture at UCLA, Roberto Sequeira had a revelation. What if I could design the perfect business? he asked himself, something niche, high-margin, scalable. He ran through a rolodex of potential consumer items -- watches, food, clothing -- before arriving at his moment of clarity: he’d start an ice cube company. But not just any ice cube company -- one that sold its wares at $8 a piece. Today his brainchild, Gläce Luxury Ice, caters posh events at the Playboy Mansion and L.A. Fashion Week; for the mere price of $325, 50 Gläce cubes are all yours -- complete with an "elegant" resealable bag.
The company web site is
Co-Worker: "I have to carefully allocate my scarce resources."
Me: "Oh. Like what? Hope?"
A feel good story with wood chippers!
Not a feel good story.
Jesus Contreras Benitez fell into a wood chipper in Menlo Park and died. One of the local news outlets had this useful piece of information: "This tragic incident made national news as, on average, only three to five people are killed by wood chippers per year.""
2000 Saab 9-3 | 2017 Honda Civic | |
Body Style | Hatchback | Hatchback |
Doors | 4+1 | 4+1 |
Height | 56.8" | 56.5" |
Width | 67.4" | 70.8" |
Length | 182.3" | 177.9" |
Wheel Base | 102.6" | 106.3" |
Curb Weight | 3,160 lbs | 2,940 lbs |
Transmission | Automatic | Automatic |
Engine | 2.0L turbo | 1.5L turbo |
Horsepower | 185 hp @ 5000 RPM | 174 hp @ 6000 RPM |
Combined MPG | 22 | 34 |
0-60 | 6.7 sec | 6.9 sec |
2000 Price | $26,000 | |
2017 Price | $37,000 | $22,000 |
Both prices are my price, except that I removed $4,000 from the actual $30,000 price of the Saab to account for a moon roof and heated seats, neither of which I cared about, but which came with the car. The Saab handles better than the Civic (though the way I drive it doesn't matter). But the Civic is basically equivalent to a 2000 Saab 93 hatchback, except it costs only 90% the inflation unadjusted price, requires ⅔ the gasoline and is (probably) more reliable.
- https://www.edmunds.com/saab/9-3/2000/features-specs/
- https://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/2017/hatchback/features-specs/
Outlined against a blue-gray October sky, the Four Horsemen rode again. In dramatic lore their names are Death, Destruction, Pestilence, and Famine. But those are aliases. Their real names are: Stuhldreher, Crowley, Miller and Layden. They formed the crest of the South Bend cyclone before which another fighting Army team was swept over the precipice at the Polo Grounds this afternoon as 55,000 spectators peered down upon the bewildering panorama spread out upon the green plain below.To illustrate how football has changed between 1924 and today we can consider the physiques of these four dominant football players:
Harry Stuhldreher | Quarterback | ~5' 7" | ~151 lbs |
Don Miller | Halfback | ~5' 11" | ~160 lbs |
Jim Crowley | Halfback | ~5' 11" | ~160 lbs |
Elmer Layden | Fullback | ~5' 11" | ~160 lbs |
The 2018 Notre Dame quarterback with the most pass attempts and top-3 running backs with the most carries are:
Ian Book | Quarterback | 6' 0" | 203 lbs |
Dexter Williams | Running back | 5' 11" | 215 lbs |
Tony Jones, Jr. | Running back | 5' 11" | 220 lbs |
Jafar Armstrong | Running back | 6' 1" | 218 lbs |
The weight of the individual offensive backs has increase by over 50 pounds each!
The sizes of the Four Horsemen were not unusual for the time, either. Red Grange was 5' 11" and weighed 175 lbs.
Every city has its wealthy, but in 1901, Buffalo's industries were a recipe for greatness, and the city's millionaires and its mansions rivaled New York City.Argentina: 1900
Buffalo was the 8th largest city in the country and had 60 millionaires, more per capita than any other American city, and Delaware Avenue became where the wealthy settled.
From 1880 to 1930, under a modern constitution and a national unity government, Argentina became one of the world's wealthiest nations. At the beginning of the 20th century, Argentina was the seventh richest country on earth and "As rich as an Argentine" became a byword.Venezuela: 1950
By 1950, as the rest of the world was struggling to recover from World War II, Venezuela had the fourth-richest GDP per capita on Earth. The country was 2x richer than Chile, 4x richer than Japan, and 12x richer than China!Detroit: 1960
In 1960, the richest per capita city in America, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, was Detroit.
By comparison, Activision Blizzard's chief executive, Bobby Kotick, made $28.6 million in 2017, a package that included cash, stock and other compensation. That was 306 times the median Activision Blizzard employee's salary.So ... ½ of Activision Blizzard's employees make more than $93,000/year.
There's only one way for these workers to push back against the way they're exploited while franchises like Call of Duty churn out money for those at the very top: unionization.I'm not sure I'd lead into a call for unionization with the claim that the median employee is being exploited by only making $93K/year. Of course, maybe the NYT readership properly views this as poverty???

(*) This used to be a real section at Barnes and Noble stores. The book cases had a sign and everything!
[Terry] Long was later charged with fraud at a freshwater fishing tournament, which is a third-degree felony in Texas, according to the department.
I think Francisco D'Aconia is absolutely a dream boat. This book's like blah blah blah engineering, blah blah blah John Galt, blah blah blah no altruistic act, blah bla- HE-llo, Francisco D'Aconia, you growl and a half. Also, there's a pirate. So, what's everyone complaining about?
<...Many more words...>
Anyway, read, discuss, agree, disagree. I'll be making up some "Team John," "Team Hank," "Team Francisco" t-shirts later. I hear in the sequel there are werewolves.

This will be fun! And educational!
<... pause ...>
Mostly educational.

Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates and Jim Simons' Renaissance Technologies beat their rivals in a tough year for hedge funds in 2018, making a combined $13 billion for their investors.
The profits accounted for more than half the money generated by the top 20 managers last year, according to estimates by LCH Investments NV, a fund of hedge funds. Firms outside that top group lost more than $64 billion as stock declines and volatility took their toll.
Before you get a man bun, ask yourself:
"Am IToshirô Mifune ?"
If the answer is "no", don't.
From SlateStarCodex:
In 1870, flat-earther Samuel Rowbotham performed a series of experiments to show the Earth could not be a globe. In the most famous, he placed several flags miles apart along a perfectly straight canal. Then he looked through a telescope and was able to see all of them in a row, even though the furthest should have been hidden by the Earth's curvature. Having done so, he concluded the Earth was flat, and the spherical-earth paradigm debunked. Alfred Wallace (more famous for pre-empting Darwin on evolution) took up the challenge, and showed that the bending of light rays by atmospheric refraction explained Rowbotham's result. It turns out that light rays curve downward at a rate equal to the curvature of the Earth's surface!Emphasis added be me. Riiiggghhhttt ...
ACC | 1 | (Clemson, #1) |
Big 10 | 1 | (Ohio St., #3) |
Big 12 | 2 | (Oklahoma, #4; Texas, #9) |
Pac 12 | 1 | (Washington St., #10) |
SEC | 5 | (#2, #6, #7, #8, #12) |
Independent | 1 | (Notre Dame, #5) |
Other | 1 | (UCF, #11) |
So, five of the top 12, with only one other conference having as many as two. Also, six in the top 16.
Now we have the entire offseason for the "SEC is overrated" discussions ...
But ...
I'm thinking that we may want to keep the Cheez-It Bowl alive as one of the 12. We could try to make this bowl game the most awful NCAA football game of the season. This year's bowl game is an inspiration.
- The winning quarterback passed for 27 yards and four interceptions. Two of those interceptions were on illegal throws.
- That QB — TCU's Grayson Muehlstein — was his team's
third-stringer, and when he briefly exited, he was
replaced by Justin Rogers, who, well:
[Twitter] TCU is now playing a QB who apparently "doesn't have full use of one of his feet" (+)
- Muehlstein is one of two senior QBs at Power 5 schools who stayed with their team throughout their college career despite never starting a game. The other is Cal's Chase Forrest, who went 5-for-14 with two interceptions last night.
- Cal's Jaylinn Hawkins had three interceptions. No TCU player caught more than two passes.
- The game featured 15 punts.
- Cal's overtime drive ended after three plays and three yards, when Chase Forrest threw a hideous interception. Jawuan Johnson almost returned it the length of the field before getting tackled by an offensive lineman. However, a TCU official tripped over a first-down marker during the return, so they had to start their drive at the 40.
Summary list lifted from here:
The school officials are mystified.
"Clemson officials spent much of the past few days searching for a reason behind the failed tests. They spoke with athletic department nutritionists, its executive chef and sports medicine officials to try and find a link between the three players. "And I'm thinking, "Hmmm ... what could be the link between these three guys? Maybe that they are ALL ON THE FOOTBALL TEAM???????"
USA Today had a writeup after the last one. It sounds absolutely amazing!
So we took a ship down to the Bahamas to see Ohio play UAB, and it has been nothing short of amazing (and honestly, questionable). Here's a short list of things we've done here at the game so far:and:For these reasons, I urge that the playoff committee consider hosting the national championship here. It would be a terrible idea, but everyone would have a great time. I know the locals are. ... I love this place.
- Brought beer right in to the stadium. The locals at the gate didn't even ask to check tickets. One of them took a sip of my beer.
- We walked all the way around the stadium, until we reached a fenced off area. A Royal Bahamas Defense Force guard said we should check behind the fence, because he doesn't know what’s back there. Upon walking past the fence, we ended up in the Ohio locker room. No questions asked.
- People are constantly walking on the athletic track around the field and chugging beer. The security forces down there just keep laughing and high fiving everyone. One of the soldiers keeps hugging random fans.
- There's a native family in front of me literally braiding each other's hair. They told me they have no clue about how football works. They just want to have a good time. One of them offered to braid my hair. My hair is 3 inches long.
- They were doing a T-Shirt toss, and one of the Bahamian families here straight up jumped three rows down onto a group of fans just to grab a shirt. They ended up getting two.
- A drunk fan just walked on to the sideline and high fived a player. He then high fived a Royal Bahamian Defense Force soldier when walking back. The soldier couldn't stop laughing.
- There's like 20 entrances to this stadium, and only like 10 of them are guarded. Literally anyone could walk in here.
- They have one working scoreboard, and instead of showing the clock, it's the ESPN feed so you can barely see the score and clock on the bottom right corner.
- Whoever's in charge of music can't decide the volume. He tried playing Believer and adjusted the volume up and down around 4 times before giving up. There hasn't been any music since.
The entertainment on the outskirts of the stadium right next to concessions includes ARCHERY. I saw a child as small as 4 getting help aiming an actual bow and arrow at a target 20 ft away
As with most phrases, it sounds better in French.

The Pounds were unhappy in Paris; Dorothy complained about the winters and Ezra's health was poor. At one dinner, a guest randomly tried to stab him ...
You don't have to be admitted to Harvard to take these classes or to get this degree. Instead, you sign up and take two or three required classes and do well in them (have a 'B' average or better). If you do, then you are admitted to the program and take four years worth of classes, though usually spread out over more than four years, to get your degree. This is just like a "real" degree. Because it is a real degree.
The classes "are taught by faculty who are Harvard scholars, industry experts, leading researchers, entrepreneurs — and instructors dedicated to their students." This isn't quite the Harvard undergraduate experience ... the classes are mostly taught not by Harvard full professors, but by Harvard instructors, adjuncts (though adjuncts from industry rather than underpaid full-time adjuncts) and sometimes by professors from other higher education institutions.
To illustrate, the "Linear Algebra and Real Analysis II" class taught in the Spring 2019 was taught by
One example of a class being taught by a full non-Harvard professor is that
Many of the differences are because the target audience is working grown-up adults doing this part time on weekends and in the evening rather than 18-22 year olds going to school full time. Because of this difference in audience a number of the classes CAN be taken on-line and the program tends toward evening classes.
The degree does require a certain number of classes taken on the Harvard campus.
You have access to (some? most of?) the Harvard libraries.
There are no dormitory options.
The $54,000 is total, not per year.
A former nurse has admitted to killing 100 patients on the first day of his trial in the biggest serial killing case in Germany's post-war history.Dangerous trial ...
"Saudis Admit Journalist Khashoggi Died During Botched Assassination Attempt" "French lawmaker proposes bill to outlaw mockery of accents"
Product ramp is more important to Apple than their suppliers. [If the ramp goes poorly] the suppliers can just declare bankruptcy. Apple might lose tens of billions of dollars in market cap.
- McCutchen (bats right)
- Judge (bats right)
- Hicks (bats switch)
Role | Name | ERA | WHIP |
RP | Shawn Kelley | 2.16 | 0.780 |
RP | J.B. Wendelken | 0.54 | 0.780 |
CL | Blake Treinen | 0.78 | 0.834 |
RP | Yusmeiro Petit | 3.00 | 1.011 |
RP | Lou Trivino | 2.92 | 1.135 |
RP | Emilio Pagan | 4.35 | 1.194 |
RP | Ryan Buchter | 2.75 | 1.195 |
RP | Jeurys Familia | 3.45 | 1.213 |
SP | Edwin Jackson | 3.33 | 1.217 |
RP | Liam Hendriks | 4.13 | 1.458 |
RP | Fernando Rodney | 3.92 | 1.597 |
The As manager chose to go with right handed pitcher Liam Hendriks. This might not be as stupid as it seems, because Liam has pitched in 24 games and only allowed runs in 5 of them ... so an 80% chance that he gets through the first inning?
Except that he is a middle reliever, so he should have benefited at least a bit from left-righty splits and probably hasn't faced the best batters of the opposing teams (at least not in games that mattered).
So it WAS probably as stupid as it appeared.
The As have Yusmeiro Petit, with more innings (so a better sense of how good he really is) and who is quite experienced so you REALLY know what you're getting. He's played in high pressure games before, so that won't phase him. And he's got a much better ERA and WHIP. You'd still have your closer available for later.
In any event, two batters into the game Liam Hendriks had given up a walk and a home run and the Yankees led 2-0.
One really wonders what the As manager was thinking ...
Not taking a position (though I have one), but wondering procedurally ... at whom is this targeted and how is it supposed to help?
I don't know if the proposal is still alive or not, but ...
The "workers" eating together at work was part of the glorious socialist revolution that Nikolai Chernyshevsky was pushing in his dreadful 1863 novel "What is to be Done?" I know this because my son and I have just finished reading it (in translation, obviously).
As with your typical Ayn Rand novel, there is a lot of time spent with various characters lecturing each other (actually, there is more of that in this book ... both "The Fountainhead" and "Atlas Shrugged" are thrilling action/adventure stories compared to "What is to be Done?").
So, at one point one of our minor characters is explaining the economic advantages of the workers sewing collective that she has started.
"Just as it is with rent, so it is with the table. For instance, the dinner which I told you about cost five rubles and fifty kopeks, or five rubles and seventy-five kopeks, with bread, but without tea and coffee. At the table were thirty-seven people besides me and Viera Pavlovna. Of course several children were included in that number. Five rubles and seventy-five kopeks for thirty-seven people makes less than sixteen kopeks apiece, less than five rubles a month. And Viera Pavlovna says that if a person dines by himself, he can have scarcely anything for this money except bread and such wretched stuff as you find at small stores. At a restaurant, a dinner like this, only not so nicely served, would cost forty kopeks, according to Viera Pavlovna. For thirty kopeks it would be much worse. This difference can be appreciated; a restaurant keeper, while preparing a dinner for twenty people or less, must support himself on this money, must have a house, and have a servant. But here these extra expenses are entirely done away with, or are greatly diminished..."Now ... Google providing free/subsidized food for its workers is not the same thing as the women in a sewing collective saving money by buying food in bulk and eating it at the sewing collective (vs eating alone at home or going to a restaurant). And Googlers are not the same as the oppressed young women banding together to form a sewing collective rather than working for an employer.
But, still ... pushing up the cost of food to benefit the restaurant owners? In 1863 Russia, this would have made you a reactionary and very much NOT a friend of the people!
"What is to be Done?" is dreadful, but actually interesting because of history. It appears that:
- The book was VERY popular when published and for a long time afterwards. It seems to have been one of the emotional pushes towards the Russian Revolution of 1917. Lenin, among others, loved the book.
- Because it was so widely read in Russia, scholars think that Ayn Rand *must* have been familiar with it. There are some stylistic similarities (the characters lecturing each other, the characters not behaving like human beings) and some philosophical similarities (our heroes keep insisting that they are all acting in their own best interests), which is amusing because one is pushing socialism and one is ... not.
- The book was both widely known and bad enough that major Russian literary figures felt a need to respond to the book.
Russia: | $1.28T GDP, | 144M people |
Mexico: | $1.05T GDP, | 112M people |
USA: | $18.57T GDP, | 320M people |
Russia is roughly Mexico with nukes and a space program.
In spite of the perception of Mexico as "poor" and Russia as "developed," both have GDPs of around $9,000 per capita. Which is somewhere around the median for Earth in 2018 and is quite good by historical standards.
Both countries have rich people, and both countries have a large metropolis where with money one can enjoy a 1st world standard of living.
And both countries have lots of poor people, too.
Mexico is richer than "we" sometimes think, but Russia is poorer.
Russia would not have a space program today if it hadn't inherited it from the larger Soviet Union. And I don't think that Russia can afford to keep their space program current because they can't draw on the resources of the Soviet Union (and Warsaw Pact) to do it.
"One striking fact: of the 500 largest publicly traded companies by value, 16% of value is classified in healthcare (up from 4% in 1984); that excludes almost every hospital and physician's office ..."I'm sure that it was less than 4% in, say, 1930.
Meanwhile the technology/IT industy(s) must have been around 0% in 1930.
And in 1930, it seems that about 25% of the population was working on farms! Maybe 1% today?
So ... how to compare two economies when they aren't a question of more or less, but wildly different qualitatively????
This is feeding into my "you just can't compare these things!" hypothesis for GDP/capita and standard of living.
You *can* compare the 'dollar equivalent' amounts, but since you can't purchase penicillin in 1930 and the number of bookstores was "small" ... but personal servants were a thing ... ??? But today we have MerryMaids and Uber instead of housekeepers and drivers. How to compare?
US 1940 vs Russia/Mexico today seem to have similar (or even worse!) problems.
I think this may be a case of an "N" dimensional space where we can agree on the distance from the origin, but the various axes are so dis-similar that even if we can normalize with dollars, it just doesn't mean very much.
Odd.
"'Italy is likely to have the best data we have,' Wachter said."
"You've raised a good child."
At the 2006 IAU conference, which was held in Prague, the few scientists remaining at the very end of the week-long meeting (less than 4 percent of the world’s astronomers and even a smaller percentage of the world’s planetary scientists) ratified a hastily drawn definition that contains obvious flaws. For one thing, it defines a planet as an object orbiting around our sun — thereby disqualifying the planets around other stars, ignoring the exoplanet revolution, and decreeing that essentially all the planets in the universe are not, in fact, planets.
Even within our solar system, the IAU scientists defined "planet" in a strange way, declaring that if an orbiting world has "cleared its zone," or thrown its weight around enough to eject all other nearby objects, it is a planet. Otherwise it is not. This criterion is imprecise and leaves many borderline cases, but what's worse is that they chose a definition that discounts the actual physical properties of a potential planet, electing instead to define "planet" in terms of the other objects that are — or are not — orbiting nearby. This leads to many bizarre and absurd conclusions. For example, it would mean that Earth was not a planet for its first 500 million years of history, because it orbited among a swarm of debris until that time, and also that if you took Earth today and moved it somewhere else, say out to the asteroid belt, it would cease being a planet.
To add insult to injury, they amended their convoluted definition with the vindictive and linguistically paradoxical statement that "a dwarf planet is not a planet." This seemingly served no purpose but to satisfy those motivated by a desire — for whatever reason — to ensure that Pluto was "demoted" by the new definition.
By and large, astronomers ignore the new definition of “planet” every time they discuss all of the exciting discoveries of planets orbiting other stars. And those of us who actually study planets for a living also discuss dwarf planets without adding an asterisk. But it gets old having to address the misconceptions among the public who think that because Pluto was "demoted" (not exactly a neutral term) that it must be more like a lumpy little asteroid than the complex and vibrant planet it is. It is this confusion among students and the public — fostered by journalists and textbook authors who mistakenly accepted the authority of the IAU as the final word — that makes this worth addressing.
Missouri S&T continues its long tradition as a leading academic institution in training and educating the world's experts in explosives engineering. Current offerings include Graduate and Undergraduate explosives certificates, an explosives engineering minor, an Explosives Engineering MS and now a PhD in Explosives Engineering.Even better, Missouri S&T offers an undergraduate philosophy degree (which is a bachelor's of science, not a bachelor of arts!). This creates the possibility that someone could graduate with a degree in philosophy and a minor in explosives engineering!
How reproducible are the results?
How well do model predictions match the real world?
"This is the FINAL time I will explain the difference between ice dance and pairs. Ice dancers have wider, U-shaped snouts, while pair skater snouts are more pointed and V-shaped. Pair skaters prefer saltwater habitats, while ice dancers inhabit freshwater marshes and lakes."
"A basic rule of life is to avoid being a guinea pig in other people's experiments."
Things work pretty much as one might expect. You check the book out for three weeks (one week for CDs, a few days for movies) and they get automagically returned at the end of the checkout period (so no late fees).
Forcing something that isn't actually resource limited (like the ability to copy bits) into a framework where you get paid because of scarcity (physical books can't be copied for $0, so if lots of people want a book then you'll sell lots of copies ...) can lead to interesting secondary effects.
In this case, one of the secondary effects is that you can only check out four books per month.
I was wondering about the underlying economics here and did some digging around. It seems that the way that Hoopla gets paid for running things like the servers and paying the authors is that every book checkout costs the Mountain View library something like $1 to $1.50. Probably different numbers for albums and movies.
Which explains why there is a limit.
If people could check out as many books per month as they wanted, the library budget would get busted.
But ... and this is the point ...
The original point to a library was that "we" could collectively purchase a resource and then share it. $20 for a book that would be read over time by 50 people would work out to less than fifty cents per read. One can, if one is a libertarian, argue that this sort of collective action doesn't require a government ... private lending libraries can do the job just as well (and Blockbuster for videos would be a case in point ...). But the idea that the community members would have access to more books than each could individually acquire makes a lot of sense.
With Ebooks in general, and Hoopla in particular, this assumption seems to no longer hold.
There is no longer any collective action advantage to renting digital items through the library versus renting them ourselves. With physical VHS tapes (and DVDs) there still was an advantage compared to Blockbuster ... the price was capped. But the new model is essentially that the library uses part of its budget to pay Blockbuster to rent the patrons digital items.
So ... MV residents pay taxes. Some of those taxes go to the library. The library then pays for some of the residents' digital media rental. But there isn't really much value-add. We could just give every library patron coupons to use at Blockbuster. But this would make it clear that the library was no longer a "library," but instead a way to subsidize purchase of specific private goods.
In the limit, the library budget just becomes a way for MV taxpayers to subsidize some of the reading habit of the MV residents who read. Which seems like a very odd thing to decide that the government should subsidize.
Am I missing anything obvious?
If we just want to give money to poor people, we can already do that ...
A cryptoeconomic powered adult entertainment ecosystem built on the Ethereum network.
Unicef Menstrual Hygiene Ambassador
Unfortunately, the bowl game was the Cotton Bowl rather than the Rose Bowl. And the Cotton Bowl was played in Texas, as it typically is, rather than in Pasadena. The Rose Bowl, traditionally matching the winner of the Pac-12 with the winner of the Big-10, featured Oklahoma vs Georgia.
The desire for a single "national champion" is creating some strange games.
A pure, single-source water rising from a 2.2 mile-deep geothermal spring in the mountains of Idaho. Refreshing and pure with a silky smooth taste.
Water Source One is a leading producer of PRIVATE LABELED BOTTLED WATER for a number of the largest retailers in the United States.
Raw Water Is Water For Rich Idiots
Per a report in the New York Times on Friday that manages to be unusually irritating even by the Times' rich-people-trendpiece standards, "raw water" is now somehow a thing on the West Coast and "other pockets around the country." In San Francisco, one brand of "unfiltered, unsterilized spring water" goes for $36.99 for a 2.5 gallon container, with refills going for $14.99 a pop.
"It has a vaguely mild sweetness, a nice smooth mouth feel, nothing that overwhelms the flavor profile," Rainbow Grocery shift manager Kevin Freeman told the Times. "Bottled water's controversial. We've curtailed our water selection. But this is totally outside that whole realm."
... one of the most enthusiastic backers of raw water is Doug Evans, the guy behind Juicero, a $399 machine that squeezed pre-filled bags of juice into cups.
A few years later from the New Yorker:
"Pickleball will save America,"" Kuhn told me, as I drank from a can of his personal brand of rainwater.
—Can Pickleball Save America?
It is hard to believe that anyone commits securities fraud anymore. Right now you can design an electronic token, say in big bold letters that the token is utterly useless, and raise $700 million selling it to people who "don't think it's fair reading into that language too tightly." Why bother to scam anyone?One can purchase machine made clothing, but some people still like to make their own by hand.
One can purchase food at the local supermarket, but some people bake their own bread.
I would like to think of the folks running [traditional] financial scams in much the same way that I think of people pursuing old(er) technologies and art forms ... as a hobby. And we can appreciate this much like we can appreciate someone who sews clothing by hand (maybe for some event such as RenFair) even if it isn't our thing.
Interviewer: It's disappointing because the internet could have been such a good thing. It could have been like an indestructible Library of Alexandria, but with porn.
- A reasonably large pool so that a bit of bad luck doesn't sink you.
- No or low correlation between the folks in the pool, so one bad event (e.g. Spanish Flu) can't/won't happen.
- Accurate pricing for the individuals (statistically).
Letting people sign up when sick with an expensive pre-existing condition but then not charging for it breaks (3), too.
SOMEONE has to pay when the old/sick/poor are being charged (on average) less than they consume in medical services. Increasing the pool won't help unless we increase the pool with people who are being overcharged.
and:
The US seems to set the value of a human life at a bit under $10M (this is for official purposes ... there is very little consistency here), while Australia and New Zealand run lower (half as much and maybe much less depending on the source).
Using Australia/New Zealend numbers, this suggests that the Brits are behaving as if the refurbs will save about 100 lives over time.
Alternately, fewer lives, but we score some deaths as worse than others.
I don't expect to ever get an answer, but I'm wondering what the money spent on this will NOT be spent on...
The most interesting thing to me is that the (western) values for life seem to be logically inconsistent.
Lets use $7M as a "value of a human life". The FDA seems to use a number around there.
Meanwhile, median US household income (both parts of a couple, if a couple, and some households just have retired people so no income) is about $60K.
A working life is about 40-ish years.
So ... $60Kx40 = $2.4M.
In theory, we would be willing to have three people work their entire lives to save one other life. This sounds ... wrong? I know that we should be good economists and thinking at the margins, but then the amount we should be willing to save a marginal life should be LESS than $7M ... because we should be able to find LOTS of lives that can be saved for less (e.g. businessinsider.com has an article that claims that ~$3.5K spent on mosquito netting in the correct place saves one life. Not much point to doing that in England, but can probably save a life for $10K?].
So it seems that this is an inefficient way for the Brits to save lives.
If all we care about is optimizing our spending on life-saving. Clearly there is more because 50 people dying in this sort of fire is much worse than 50 people dying in auto accidents (and there is also the cost to repairing damage to the building ... but this should have already been taken into account when purchasing the less expensive cladding).
Still, the difference between a median US worker earns something close to $2.5M over a working lifetime (maybe less?) and we are valuing a human life at about three times that seems like a problem.
If you shoot for the moon, even if you miss you'll land among the stars.Or the Kuiper belt. Maybe the Oort cloud.
Or you die horribly in an N1 rocket explosion.
"A Financial Times journalist was killed by a crocodile while washing his hands in a lagoon in Sri Lanka during a vacation with pals.This seems like a bad idea ...
:
The lagoon, known to be crawling with crocodiles, is yards away from popular surf spot Elephant Rock on the southeast coast."
:Okay, maybe it isn't as bad as it seems if there haven't been any crocodile attacks and things are very safe.
"This is the first known crocodile attack in Sri Lanka. Both tourists and locals surf at Elephant Rock, which is a beautiful secluded beach and very safe."
:Unless, maybe it is a very dangerous place given how very safe it is.
"It is a very dangerous place to swim, there have been lots of attacks."
:And, of course, this is the first known crocodile attack in Sri Lanka except for all the previous ones.
"In April this year, a 13-year-old girl was attacked and dragged away by a crocodile while she was enjoying a day out with her family at Pulnewa Lake, in Galnewa."
:
"And in July 2016, a 60-year-old Sri Lankan man was killed in a crocodile attack..."
Would you spend $1,000 on an iPhone? Just 1 in 3 say yesThe average desktop PC runs about $500 ...
I'm thinking that "just" is ... wrong. If Apple can get one in three people to give them $1,000 for a portable pocket computer with the word "phone" in the product name, there isn't anything "just" or "only" about it.
... and three Cracker Barrels :-)
California is scheduled to get its first Cracker Barrel in early 2018, but there are still no public plans for a Waffle House.
"The former Soviet republic of Belarus has declared war on an imaginary country that exists within its own borders.
The unprecedented move - which to be honest sounds no more or less mad than most of the rest of the news in these increasingly interesting times - has come about due to a series of war games called Zapad 2017, set to take place between September 14 and 20.
The scenario for these exercises involve Belarusian and Russian forces facing a combined invasion by three imaginary nations on Belarus's borders: Vesbaria (which occupies the territory of real-life Lithuania), Lubenia (which equates to Poland) and Veyshnoria, which in the war game scenario occupies a space in the northwest of Belarus itself.
IHS Markit analyst Alex Kokcharov has noted that the borders of Veyshnoria correlate to the area of Belarus most politically hostile to the country's president, self-styled authoritarian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, suggesting that the dear leader considers this dissent to be unacceptable and deserving of the threat of military recriminations.
However, if Lukashenko was hoping that the creation of this existential threat within the bosom of the motherland would unite his people in nationalist fervour, it seems he may be disappointed. Instead, the Belarusian population have seemingly taken the nascent nation to heart, furnishing it with its own flag, history, foreign ministry (complete with satirical Twitter account) and Wikipedia page."
From CNBC earlier this year: "Overall, actively managed U.S. equity funds now hold $3.6 trillion in assets while their passive counterparts hold nearly $3.1 trillion." If we figure that the actively managed folks average 0.5% fees for the managers, then this works out to $18B per year spent researching US stocks and making buy/sell decisions about their correct prices.
The hedge fund industry also seems to have about $3T under management, though much of this is NOT focused on US stocks. Still, it looks like about $0.75T of this is focused on non-emerging market stocks, so maybe ½ of this is invested or shorted in US stocks. Given the hedge fund fee structure, this is probably another few billion dollars per year spent analyzing US stocks.
How much money per year do people think is required to be spent on active management before the cost of more accurate stock prices is higher than the quality of the price improvement? $200B per decade seems like a lot of money to me to keep the prices in line with reality.
Tim Tebow's Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) was .308 at low-A and is .356 at hi-A.
He was hitting .220 at low-A and is hitting .308 at hi-A.
So, if we back out about 50 points from his batting average because of his BABIP spike, he WOULD be hitting around .250 at hi-A. Still an improvement, but not the .308 we are seeing.
And it seems to be some sort of fundamental law of baseball that everyone hits around .300 for BABIP, so this is exactly what we want to do if we want to predict Tim's success at his next 500 plate appearances.
So ... his "doing a lot better" is real, but is mostly that he's been getting a bit lucky with where his hit balls have been going.
Most of the rest of his batting average improvement has been in fewer strikeouts. I don't know if we have enough plate appearances to say whether this is a real improvement or not.
Low-A Mets team stadium is *very* slightly pitcher friendly, so adjust Tebow's BA there up a bit .... maybe .225 to compensate. Hi-A Mets team stadium is hitter friendly by almost 10%! So dial his current BA down by 9% or 8% ... then back out his BABIP spike ... and ... not much has changed.
Now only ½ of Tebow's games get played at home, but it looks like BABIP luck plus park effects are most of the story here.
You know how traditional baseball people say that the sabermetric guys suck all the fun out of baseball??? Yeah ...
End of Season:
Tim was batting ".317 in 25 games" with St. Lucie as of July 24. He then went 3 for 14 in his next four games...
Tim Tebow finished 2017 batting 0.220 at lo-A Columbia and batting 0.231 at hi-A St. Lucie.
This e-mail exchange actually happened. I've arranged it in chronological order for easy reading...
From: Contracts Specialist-Supplier Agreements Sent: Wednesday, July 19, 2017 11:32 AM To: M Subject: RE: Vendor Update M, Vendor struck out the requirement for Professional Liability Insurance. What happens if they give us bad code or caused some form of issue due to omissions or errors in their work, etc. I need this info to get V's approval. From: R Sent: Wednesday, July 19, 2017 2:41 PM To: M; Mark Roulo Subject: RE: Vendor Update Can you provide an answer? R From: Mark Roulo Sent: Wednesday, July 19, 2017 2:46 PM To: R; M Subject: Re: Vendor Update > What happens if they give us bad code or caused some form of issue due > to omissions or errors in their work, etc. Budget an extra $25,000? "The FBI works undercover on an average of 70 to 90 murder-for-hire cases a year. According to bureau press releases, recent quoted fees have ranged from $25,000 to kill a spouse to $600 to kill a girlfriend. And a drug dealer in New Orleans tried to pay for a contract killing in crack." http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/ explainer/2009/02/dirty_deeds_done_dirt_cheap.html Just sayin ... Or we just terminate the contract with Vendor and fix the code. We'll be responsible for maintaining the code anyway, so we need to know (a) how it works, (b) how to compile it, (c) etc. From: R Sent: Wednesday, July 19, 2017 2:56 PM To: Mark Roulo; M Subject: RE: Vendor Update LOL, Let's go with your last suggestion. I'll get back to you. From: M Sent: Wednesday, July 19, 2017 3:01 PM To: R; Mark Roulo Subject: RE: Vendor Update Mark has it right, this is not a stopper, Thank you, M From: R Sent: Wednesday, July 19, 2017 3:06 PM To: M; Mark Roulo Subject: RE: Vendor Update Ok.
"The results indicated that, since the age of 14, 27.5% of college women reported experiencing and 7.7% of collage men reported perpetrating an act that met legal definitions of rape, which includes attempts. ... A victimization rate for women of 38 per 1,000 was calculated, which represented the number of women per thousand who experienced a rape (that met the FBI definition) during the previous 6 months."(underscore added by me)
The men don't seem to be checking a box that says "I sexually assaulted someone," though.
And notice that the paper scores "attempts" that meet the FBI definition of rape as rape.
The FBI definition in play at the time of the paper (note that the definition changed a few years ago) included emotional coercion as a form of 'force' that would transform sex into rape. I think.
I believe (but this is a lot more complicated than it should be) that the combination of (a) attempts being scored as rape, and (b) emotional coercion making things non-consensual means that person Y telling person X "you would if you loved me" gets scored as rape for the purposes of this paper, even if person X says "no," person Y doesn't use physical force and no sex occurs.
I think.
The folks reporting this are really not being very clear about where they are drawing the lines ...
I'd like to dog pile on the Millenials, too (what with their lattes and their degrees in creative writing from Oberlin and all ...), but the current kids are surprisingly pragmatic when it comes to college and I think the Millenials probably were also.
The most popular undergraduate majors look something like this:
- Business (yes, for undergrad. WTF???)
- Psychology
- Nursing
- Biology
- Education (to be a K-8 teacher, probably)
- Criminal Justice
- Accounting
- Liberal Arts, General Studies, ...
- English
- History
And most of the rest are fairly "real" degrees (or at least can be fairly real).
The Foo-Foo Studies are actually fairly rare as degrees. And a bunch of the kids are looking at college as a vocational/trade school and trying to use it to get a better job (we can be sad about that if we want, but we shouldn't be sad about this and then bag on them for taking BS majors).
I also expect that the bulk of the students are going to public colleges/universities (including junior colleges). Again, making fun of the kids majoring in XXXX at StuffyPrivateUniversity is kinda fun, but the bulk of the millenials with degrees are/were probably public school grads who tried to major in something practical.
Bad Angel: | "Hmmm ... Exxon has a pretty good balance sheet (I thought). It is EXXON. It's stock dropped a bunch in the last year or so, and it pays a nice 3.6% dividend. I can't imagine it performing much worse than the S&P500 over the next ten years. Screw efficient markets, this thing looks like a buy!" |
Good Angel: | "No, no, no ... what do you know that the markets don't?" |
Bad Angel: | "Um ... Exxon?!? With a nice dividend! I'll feel like an idiot if this thing goes up and I just watched!" |
Good Angel: | "Sigh. Can you just purchase enough that you won't feel badly if it goes up, but not so much that we get fried when it goes down? Can you hedge?" |
Bad Angel: | "What if I buy this only slightly related ETF that contains Exxon plus a bunch of other stocks that I don't know anything about?? Maybe we only buy a medium amount of this thing I haven't actually analyzed???" |
Good Angel: | "Fine. Buy enough that you shut up." |
Results this year:
Well, it has been a year! XLE is up 31% from where I bought it (I think this is total return?) and the dividend is now about 2.3% instead of 3.4% (partially because the shares are up 31% ...) ... so not much more than the S&P500. I sold it this morning.
An equivalent purchase of XOM would be up 10% (vs 20% for the S&P500 ... this demonstrates my skill at stock market analysis), still with a good dividend yield, but the XOM earnings have now dropped enough that they are paying dividends out of capital, not earnings.

US Population is: ~320M (adults are about 240M)
So ... US GDP/person is about $50K/year
Current US federal and state+local spending is in the range of $6T/year.
At the federal level ($4T):
- Military: ~18% (and 4% more for veteran's benefits)
- Healthcare: ~24%
- Interest: ~7%
- Social Security + Unemployment: ~34%
- Education: ~50%
- Welfare/poverty programs: next
- Police+Fire
- Everything else
- Seriously reducing the military (we can do that without BMI)
- Reducing federal healthcare spending (mostly spent on seniors ... who are expensive)
- Defaulting of the national debt (again, we can do that without a MBI)
- Making parents in charge of education funding (so public schools stay)
- Privatizing police+fire
So ... we can eliminate about 34% of a $4T federal budget (so ~$1.3T) and maybe 1/3 of the state+local spending of ~$2T (so ~$0.7T) which gives us about $2T/year to split up among 240M adults. I get about $8,300/adult/year (or $700/adult/month).
I'm guessing:
- Lots of retirees who are currently getting MORE than $8,300/year
in social security will be VERY unhappy. The average social
security benefit is currently about $1,300/month, so (assuming
a non-pathological distribution), the VAST majority of folks on
social security will see a very large drop in their monthly check.
With no realistic way to replace it (go back to work at age 70?)
- And lots of unemployed folks who would now be getting $700/month AND NOTHING ELSE (no EBT, no housing assistance, ...) will decide that they are much worse off under the new system. Single mom with two kids probably gets more than $700/month in cash plus benefits today (EBT, housing assistance, etc.)
US poverty level for an individual is about $12,000/year, so this is solidly below that. $16,600/year is barely above the poverty level for a couple.
Yes, it DOES eliminate the dis-incentive to work when on welfare, but for those that can't work (medical reasons, too old, no skills) they seem to be financially worse off then they are today.
If we make the MBI for everyone (adults and children ... this helps that single mom ... but she also now has an incentive to have even more kids ...), then we have $2T/year to divvy up among 320M people, so about $6,250/year/person. Two married retirees who were getting the average social security check each ($1,300/month) now see their monthly income drop from $2,600 to about $1,000. The US has about 60M people receiving social security checks (not all getting more than $700/month or $500/month, but the majority do ...), so this is a lot of people.
There would clearly be behavioral changes after this, but I can't guess if they'd be net positive or net negative:
- Some folks (e.g. my wife and myself) might look around and decide
that this plus savings is enough to retire. I'd bet on a specific
friend taking this option (assuming he isn't already retired)
- And some (young) folks might decide that three roommates mean that
you don't need a job. Ever (hey, they are used to being poor ...).
Video games, porn and raman don't sound so bad for low skill 20s males
in low cost of living places. I'm assuming we don't want these folks
just dropping out of the work force at age 18. Maybe I'm wrong?
- You will also see people taking jobs that they might have avoided in the
past for fear of losing their benefits.
- And you'll probably see some folks quitting "good" jobs to go off and be artists. This may increase US net happiness, but probably doesn't help FUND the MBI.
- Elderly on SS get screwed, and
- MBI isn't enough for truly poor to survive
- Uber:
$50B For an unprofitable taxi company?
- Xiaomi:
Hard to figure this one. How valuable are unprofitable Chinese consumer electronics companies?
- AirBnB:
We make our money by violating local zoning laws ... and all the neighbors hate us.
- Panantir:
This one seems real. Lots of money selling services to police states and folks that want to be more police state like ...
Much like Blackwater is/was real.
- Snapchat:
I don't understand. Of course, I didn't understand Facebook, either ...
- Dropbox:
Because copying files over the internet isn't a commodity business. And also has great network effects to keep you locked in ...
- Pinterest:
Same as snapchat. Except I "get" it more, but don't understand how to make (much) money. Still ... see Facebook.
- Twitter:
We have never made money, but we're only 10 years old ...
- Yelp:
We haven't made money, either ...
- Groupon:
Proudly delivering very bad customers to you, while also chasing off your good customers.
- We Work:
We rent out office space. But we have an app?
- Spotify:
By construction, we can never extract very much money from the customers ... the folks who own the copyright will get the bulk of the profits ...
- Lyft:
We're like Uber, but less trendy.
- Zenefits:
This one makes sense, but I don't know if this specific company can succeed. A large, recent layoff is sad.
- Social Finance:
Because individuals are better at assessing loan risk than banks are. If we add intermediaries to "pool" individual piles of money and make the loan decisions, we have re-invented banking.
The other "signal" that things are weird is folks wanting to use blockchain technology. Folks like AirBnB. Because, clearly, running a small RDB won't get the job done to track reputations, but a blockchain will!
2000: On the internet (see eToys, Pets.com)
2009: We have an app for that (because an app changes the underlying business! (*))
2016: With the blockchain
2009: We have an app for that (because an app changes the underlying business! (*))
2016: With the blockchain
(*) Actually, in the case of Uber, it did!
The 20 most profitable hedge funds for investors earned $15 billion last year while the rest of the industry collectively lost $99 billion, LCH said. Those top managers have made 48 percent of the $835 billion in profits that the hedge fund industry has generated since its inception.
The company is relying on established technology, as well as new innovations, to bring humans to the edge of space.I can see how this newer technology would make it easier to acquire customers.
:
:
The newer technology involves returning safely to the ground.
On Monday, the global investment bank told its staff it would allow all employees to use Airbnb Business Travel for work-related travel as part of its corporate travel policy, according to people familiar with the matter.
It is interesting to see that the "% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners" is 112%.
Google finance has it at 127% institutional ownership:
I guess that this is what happens when you have a large (20%) amount of stock that is short?
With the Powerball lottery jackpot at record levels, the nation's attention is riveted on tonight's drawing. Everyone is weighing in on whether it makes economic sense to play the lottery. In terms of pure expected value, playing the lottery is a bad bet -- in fact, it really has to be, since if the house weren't guaranteed to win, the lottery wouldn't be offered in the first place. So why do people seem so willing to throw away their money?Because the starting size of the pot should never influence whether you stay for the first card ...
... any sufficiently advanced criminal enterprise is indistinguishable from a bitcoin exchange
This was from Matt Levine at Bloomberg in his Dec 17, 2015 article "Martin Shkreli Accused of Being Surprisingly Good at Fraud"
They have low status compared to the pilots that actually get to fly real planes, they are overworked and there are morale problems when they accidentally shoot missiles into wedding parties full of children.
So I'm thinking that the solution is for the Air Force to develop a test (if one does not already exist) to screen for sociopaths and then hire those folks and assign them to fly the drones...
"Eating lettuce is over three times worse in greenhouse gas emissions than eating bacon," said Paul Fischbeck, professor of social and decisions sciences and engineering and public policy.
"I would suggest that such [student] protests [as we have recently seen at University of Missouri, etc.] do not happen at online institutions because online education is fundamentally organized (pedagogically and structurally) to promote a very particular type of learning ..."Yep, that's it! You don't see student's protesting "at" MOOCs because MOOCs "promote a very particular type of learning". Not because it is very difficult to know which server location to picket. Not because protesting a free set of lectures hosted 3,000 miles away from you is both pointless and incredibly difficult. Because the type of learning promoted by MOOCs is so narrow...
(Dan Butin, PhD, is a Full Professor and Founding Dean of the School of Education & Social Policy at Merrimack College)
NBC News has learned that ISIS is using a web-savvy new tactic to expand its global operational footprint -- a 24-hour Jihadi Help Desk to help its foot soldiers spread its message worldwide, recruit followers and launch more attacks on foreign soil.Wouldn't someone COMMUNICATING WITH THE ISIS IT HELP DESK constitute a "hint of activity"????
Counterterrorism analysts affiliated with the U.S. Army tell NBC News that the ISIS help desk, manned by a half-dozen senior operatives around the clock, was established with the express purpose of helping would-be jihadists use encryption and other secure communications in order to evade detection by law enforcement and intelligence authorities.
The relatively new development -- which law enforcement and intel officials say has ramped up over the past year -- is alarming because it allows potentially thousands of ISIS followers to move about and plan operations without any hint of activity showing up in their massive collection of signals intelligence.
Megan McArdle had an article about one year ago (as Detroit was going down in flames ...) and addressed the question: Why aren't the pensions managed more conservatively? Her answer is that there is a bit of a game going on between the union leaders negotiating the pensions and the politicians on the other side of the table.
*ONE* way to do things would be for the unions and the politicians to agree on a fixed amount of cash that the city/state/whatever would pay out each year towards the pension and then the union could manage the pension.
The "problem" with this is that it becomes clear what the risks are to the union members *AND* what the costs are to the taxpayers. The upshot being that the benefits go *DOWN* while the taxes go *UP* relative to the sorts of deals that folks would negotiate with the current approach. Everyone is sad.
Instead, the folks doing the negotiating (both sides) converge on a solution that involves "optimistic" expected returns. The union members are happy because they expect very nice pension benefits in 30 years and the taxpayers are happy because they don't have to pay as much as they would if things were financed cautiously. This doesn't even have to be a conspiracy.
Thirty years later, of course, things may be going poorly, but this isn't the problem for any of the players at the time of the deal. And the union folks can convince themselves that the pensions *MUST* be paid so they aren't really taking any risks. The politicians can convince themselves that the expected returns will materialize, so they aren't being irresponsible.
The hedge funds seem to be involved in a similar game. Their value here isn't that they are "captured," but that the folks running the pension funds can claim higher expected returns and thus don't have to ask the city/state/whatever to pony up more CASH today to keep the pension "solvent." I expect that the hedge fund guys believe whatever they are claiming (higher returns, less correlation, whatever) and the pension folks can convince themselves of whatever they need to convince themselves. Again, this likely leads to bigger problems in the future, but that isn't an issue for the folks making the decisions today ...
I don't see this as "capture" in any sense. The hedge funds get paid (which is grand) and the folks running the pension funds don't have to be the bad guys responsible for raising taxes (or cutting services). Everyone wins! For a short while, at least.
... in the hierarchy of public-pension fund needs, both [performance and fees] take a back seat to expected returns. This is because the higher the expected return, the lower the capital contributions required of some obligated public entity.I like this explanation better than:
In other words, hedge funds aren't used to generate higher returns; they simply make it possible for some public entity to reduce contributions to the underlying pension. This is the primary driving force in the rise of hedge funds for public pensions.
- the folks running the pensions can't see the obvious, or
- the folks running the pensions are consistently overly optimistic
I♥GAIA1
? Because one was driving around on highway one this afternoon.
At 538, going "game-by-game", the SF 49ers are expected to win 4 games, lose 11 and one is a 50:50 coin flip ... so
4-11-1
If we sum up all the average "win probabilities" for these games, the "win probabilities" add up to 7.09 games ... so ...
7-9
FiveThirtyEight had the "Average Simulated Season" W-L before the season started at:
8-8
I kinda understand the first two, don't quite get the last one and think that the whole thing is sorta fascinating in a "stats don't work the way you expect" way.
The 49ers can have *EVERY* single game come out as "expected" and their season record will be different from the best guess before the season began for their final record.
Butler, just three weeks removed from playing the Giants in the World Series, now comes to play in the Bay Area. "It still stings, one run away," Butler said of his Royals team falling in seven games to the Giants, adding of Madison Bumgarner, "I didn't realize it was possible for one person to single handedly win the World Series for their team."
Rent for 1br, 1ba apartment at Garden Village Apartments:$600/month
Today: My employer hires bachelor's degree holders at $60K+, and master's at $90K+
Rent for 1br, 1ba apartment at Garden Village Apartments: $1,385/month
Eyeballing this, I'd say rent was slightly more expensive, but roughly comparable (237/129 = 1.84). What might not be comparable is that I didn't have a $100/month cable bill or a $100/month cell phone bill ... but even taking $2,500/year off the current salaries doesn't seem to change the basic point that the ENGINEERING salaries have mostly kept up with rent.
I bought a new 1990 Ford Probe for $13,500 in 1990. A 2014 Ford Mustang can be had for $23,000 today ... and the interest rates are lower today and the car probably more reliable.
August 2019: A few years later and the numbers can be updated. I asked an HR person I know what the mid-range salary for a freshly hired software engineer with only a bachelor's degree would be and also what would be typical after two years. The answers were: $100,000 and $120,000. Not everyone makes this — some make more and some make less with a range of maybe $80,000 as a low starting salary to $130,000 as a high starting salary (maybe paid by Google).
So ...
1990 | 2014 | 2019 | 2019 vs. 1990 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Salary | $30,000/year | $60,000/year | $100,000/year | 3⅓× |
Apartment | $600/month | $1,385/month | $1,890/month | 3.1× |
Probe/Mustang | $13,500 | $23,000 | $27,490 | 2× |
CPI | 128.7 | 237.0 | 256.6 | 2× |
The apartment is a 1 bedroom apartment at the apartment complex in which I resided in 1990.
The Ford Probe was targeted at the same audience as the Ford Mustang.
It still looks as it the new engineer salaries have kept up with inflation. What has NOT kept up with inflation has been house prices ... those have soared!
Subject: Updates to your Google Wallet
From: Google Wallet <noreply@wallet.google.com>

Updates to your Google Wallet Account
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Google Wallet is now integrated within leading Android apps and mobile sites.
Google Wallet is a digital wallet that securely stores your credit cards, debit cards, offers and loyalty cards, so you can shop online across Google services such as Google Play and other merchant sites or in stores with the Google Wallet app. Now, you can pay with your Google Wallet account on select Android apps and mobile sites. Simply select the 'Buy with Google' button and verify your payment information, and you'll complete your transaction in as few as two clicks.
This new feature is available on popular brands.

Stay informed with Google Wallet newsletters, invitations to provide product feedback and special offers.
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P.S. To view your transactions or manage your account, type wallet.google.com into your browser and sign in.
I hadn't signed up with Google Wallet. To the best of my knowledge, I don't have an account with any part of Google.
I called the helpful Google Wallet 1-800 number to find out what was going on.
- Yes, I DO have a Google Wallet Account.
- Google created one for me because I "purchased something on line".
- No, I can't close the account.
- Then the helpful phone operator hung up.
Subject: RE: [4-8021000002047] Google Wallet Follow-up
From: wallet-support@google.com

Hi Mark,
Google Wallet is a free service that allows you to carry your wallet on the web. It securely stores your credit card information in your Google Account so you don't have to enter your billing and shipping information each time you shop online.
When you checkout with participating online merchants you can pay quickly by signing in to Google Wallet. You can also use Google Wallet to pay for other Google services and products, like Google Drive and Google Play.
Please note that if you've previously used Google Checkout, you already have Google Wallet. This service is available in many countries. For more information on the availability of Google Wallet, visit https://support.google.com/wallet/bin/answer.py?hl=en&topic=1711146&answer=1663318
US users can also use stored payment credentials to make purchases using a mobile browser, as well as pay in-store with the Google Wallet app where accepted.
Sign in to Google Wallet at wallet.google.com/manage to get started buying online!
If you have any more questions, please reply to this email. I'm happy to help!
Thanks!
Miguel
The Google Wallet Team
So here we are. I seem to have a Google Wallet account, set up for me by some Internet merchant. I can't access it because I don't have the password. I have no idea what credit card (or other) information has been stored in it, but I also know that Google is storing this credit card information "securely." I can't delete the wallet.
From: Mr. Richard Akinola <mr.akinolarichard@gmail.com>
From Mr. Richard Akinola
Chairman International
Scheme Compensation Unit
F.R.N Lagos Chapter
Dear Beneficiary
This letter is written to you in order to change your Life from today as you have been listed as one of those VICTIM who lost huge sum of money while trying to receive your payment from Nigeria, London, USA etc, we also want to inform you that during the last Head of States Meeting in the African Union (AU) in which Nigeria is a Leading Member Country, we were directed to pay you the sum of $10.5M (TEN MILLION FIVE HUNDRED UNITED STATES DOLLARS) which covers the money you lost plus your Inheritance/Contract Payment.
In order for you to receive this $10.5M without any delay, we have decided to pay you through a Specialized atm card which is one of the fastest, reliable and convenient means of receiving payment worldwide. As soon as this Specialized atm card arrives your delivery address, you will be able to use it to withdraw money from any atm machine in your Country or anywhere in the whole word without any delay or difficulty, we can also make the payment direct to your Bank Account in case you prefer to receive your payment through bank to bank transfer.
We wish to inform you that the members of Payment Committee are honorable men of Great Repute and Intergrity who have served the Government of Nigeria in both local and International capacities, we also wish to inform you that the Committee members were appointed by our respected President to pay foreign Debt such as Contract Debt, Inheritance/Next of Kin Debt, Compensation Debt, Lottery Debt, Purchase/Sales of Good Debt, and all other Foreigner debt own beneficiaries by Nigeria Government, in order to restore Nigeria good image to international Communities. You are advice to reply back immediately you receive this mail, so that you will receive your own payment. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OF NIGERIA HEREBY ADVICE YOU TO HENCEFORTH STOP COMMUNICATING WITH THOSE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN DECEIVEING YOU FOR TOO LONG AND WORK WITH THIS HONORABLE COMMITTEE SO THAT YOU WILL RECEIVE YOUR PAYMENT BECAUSE THIS IS THE ONLY COMMITTEE APROVED BY NIGERIA GOVERNMENT AND AFRICAN UNION TO MAKE PAYMENT TO YOU.
In case you want to receive your payment this week, you are advice to reply with ANSWERS to the Questions below.
Your Full Name
Your Contact Address
Your Direct telephone.
Your AGE
What You Do For A Living
How Many Months Or Years in which You Have Been Expecting your Payment
The Place you sent Money Last whether Nigeria or London etc
The Last Amount of Money You sent to Nigeria and What Month or Year
Mr. Richard Akinola
Chairman International
Scheme Compensation Unit
F.R.N Lagos Chapter
Because I have not been victimized by the scam I thought it inappropriate to take Richard up on his kind offer of $10.5M, but it did brighten my day to know that there were people working to correct the wrongs done by the scammers.
It seems that the way CPI is calculated (imputed rent and all that) that one way to have "zero" inflation would be for housing prices to crater (dropping the imputed rent along with the owner's equity) while at the same time for food, energy, etc. to be soaring.He wrote back that "Yes, this is correct. It happened just as you describe in mid-2010."
In theory, the prices of the things one buys going up is cancelled out by the devastation to a homeowner's equity.
Is this correct?
So there you have it. For homeowners, in theory, losing hundreds of thousands of dollars in home equity can counteract an increase in the prices of the things being purchased (e.g. food, cars, gasoline for the cars, clothing, ...) so that there is no net inflation!
The NL sent 13 pitchers this year of which 8 were starters.
The selection seemed very odd, given that the best three by ERA didn't make the team, and one guy who allowed more than one run per game more than Ryan Vogelsong did make the team.
The statistically worst starting pitcher is a Cardinal, so my guess is that Tony La Russa used one of his manager selections to pick "his guy." One of the other weaker starting pitchers was from Arizona, and the rules are that each team must have at least one player ... this was the guy from Arizona. We can ignore these two players when trying to figure out why "they" made it and someone else did not.
So now we've got six starting pitchers left. All of the six were in the top 13 for ERA, so they were pretty good a preventing runs. But the top six didn't go. In fact, four of the top five didn't go. Of the guys who did go, however, they were the six pitchers with the most strikeouts. They ranked 1-6 in Ks leading into the All Star game!
So there you have it.
The definition of a 2012 National League All-Star starting pitcher is:
- Very close to the top of the league in strikeouts, or
- Sole representative for the team, or
- Manager likes you and you're pretty good.
So, there you have it. Ryan Vogelsong is pitching as well as any pitcher in the national league, and he was left off the All Star team because he didn't have enough strikeouts.
Data:
Player | Team | Record | IP | ERA | K | K-Rank | WHIP | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Vogelsong | SF | 7-4 | 110.2 | 2.36 | 77 | 1.12 | ||
James McDonald | PIT | 9-3 | 110.0 | 2.37 | 100 | 11 | 0.97 | |
Johnny Cueto | CIN | 10-5 | 120.1 | 2.39 | 91 | 27 | 1.16 | |
R.A. Dickey | NYM | 12-1 | 120.0 | 2.40 | 123 | 2 | 0.93 | |
Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 5-6 | 110.1 | 2.61 | 74 | 1.12 | ||
Matt Cain | SF | 9-3 | 120.1 | 2.62 | 118 | 4 | 0.96 | |
Kyle Lohse | STL | 9-2 | 116.1 | 2.79 | 67 | 1.08 | ||
Shephen Strasburg | WAS | 9-4 | 99.0 | 2.82 | 128 | 1 | 1.10 | |
Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 6-5 | 120.2 | 2.91 | 119 | 3 | 1.06 | |
Chris Capuano | LAD | 9-4 | 111.1 | 2.91 | 100 | 11 | 1.16 | |
Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 12-3 | 101.2 | 2.92 | 118 | 4 | 1.11 | |
Wade Miley | ARI | 9-5 | 100.2 | 3.04 | 70 | 1.09 | (Arizona needs one rep) | |
Cole Hamels | PHI | 10-4 | 118.0 | 3.20 | 118 | 4 | 1.10 | |
Johan Santana | NYM | 6-5 | 102.2 | 3.24 | 99 | 15 | 1.17 | |
Mark Buehrle | MIA | 8-8 | 113.2 | 3.25 | 66 | 1.13 | ||
Madison Bumgarner | SF | 10-5 | 115.2 | 3.27 | 99 | 15 | 1.10 | |
Zack Greinke | MIL | 9-3 | 111.0 | 3.32 | 111 | 7 | 1.23 | |
Wandy Rodriguez | HOU | 7-6 | 114.2 | 3.38 | 75 | 1.23 | ||
Lance Lynn | STL | 11-4 | 103.0 | 3.41 | 105 | 9 | 1.23 | (Torre coached STL) |
All-Stars in light grey.
the world to get lost amid the general studying for various science
tests. I'm trying to capture some of these wonders.
Normally, these are "inside" the nucleus of the atom (thus their names).
And the way we see atoms diagramed in science textbooks is the nucleus in the middle and the electrons outside the nucleus. Better books and diagrams will note that (a) the electrons aren't orbiting the nucleus like planets orbit the sun, but are instead probability clouds, and (b) some electrons have a (low) probability of being found inside the nucleus.
But they don't mention that the protons and neutrons don't have to be inside the nucleus! The names for these protons and/or neutrons are "halo nuclei".
Black holes are even more "squished together" than neutron stars, so one would expect them to be even denser. But they don't have to be!
Unlike neutron stars, black holes do not have a "surface" in the ordinary sense. The "size" of a black hole is thus usually defined by its
For "small" black holes, the radius is not a surprise and the density is thus not unusually low.
A ~10 solar mass black hole, for example, has a Schwarzchild radius of ~30 km. Since a ~2 solar mass neutron star has a radius of around 12 km, this doesn't seem like a surprise.
But it should! Density is mass/volume. If we keep density the same and grow the radius of a sphere from ~12 to ~30, the volume has increased by ~16×. For the density to stay the same, the mass must increase by ~16× as well. But a ~10 solar mass black hole has only about 5× the mass of a ~2 solar mass neutron star. THE BLACK HOLE IS LESS DENSE THAN THE NEUTRON STAR!!!!
The way that Schwarzchild radii work, the "density" of black holes goes down as they get more massive. Supermassive black holes can be massive enough that their "density" is less than the density of water!
The "trick" here is that the outside "edge" of a supermassive black hole (or, alternately, the region just inside the Schwarzchild radius) is basically vacuum. The mass is mostly contained much closer to the center, but because black holes don't have a "surface" in the same way that other objects like neutrons stars do, the "density" as calculated from the Schwarzchild radius is quite low.
as a college undergraduate is to learn about different ways to view the
world — to acquire mental tools for understanding the world. This point is
often overlooked, but two disciplines illustrate this:
- Economics is largely about how incentives influence people's decisions. Learning to
think like an economist includes learning to think about incentives. This can be useful.
- Newtonian Physics is largely about conservation laws. Mass, momentum (both linear and angular)
and energy neither get created or destroyed. If one thing has picked up some of any of these,
another thing has to have lost it. Taking this seriously leads to trying to look at systems
as a whole, even when
one isn't doing physics.
and/or useful. It is a work in progress...
The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can't be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can't be measured easily really isn't important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can't be easily measured really doesn't exist. This is suicide.If you don't actually have the data you want to make a quantitative decision, it is better to just admit that the decision can't be made quantitatively and explicitly make a "best judgement" decision. At least you are not fooling yourself about how you are making the decision and you probably won't be fooling yourself about how confident you should be.
"Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics."
"“Infantry wins battles, logistics wins wars."
Mostly a bunch of links to external stuff I find (or found at one time)
interesting. Some are links to specific articles. Some are links to
entire sites or YouTube channels. Some are just lists.

Funny skits about Dungeons & Dragons, video games and the video game industry. This
is unlikely to be funny to those unfamiliar with Dungeons & Dragons or video games.
Good skits to watch first:
Accidentally ruining the entire D&D campaign Regretting your class choice in games Lazy adventurers in video games - Bare Minimum Sexist armour in games Falling too hard for an NPC - Soulmate

Funny skits about college football and college football fans with a focus on the SEC.
Good skits to watch first:
SEC teams line up to claim their "L" Teams return to claim their "L" Auburn and Texas A&M show up early to claim their wins Florida State gets hosed SEC Teams call the Miracles Department

Physical fitness, working out (mostly with weights) and body building:
Exercise Scientist Critiques Dorian Yates' HIGH INTENSITY Training How To Cut Down Your Gym Time and Get MORE Growth DON'T Be This Guy: The Dumbest Reason To Do Steroids Why Men And Women MUST Train Differently Being Obese is Healthy- BULLSH*T!

Physical fitness. A lot of his good videos are 'hidden.' I don't know why. A good one that is still available is:
Social Media Is F**King Us Up

Chris Williamson brings interesting people onto his show and lets them talk.
Guests have included:
- Jordan Peterson
- Tulsi Gabbard
- David Goggins
- Chris Bumstead
- Andrew Huberman
- Mike Israetel (from Renaissance Periodization)



Comedy:
When Sportscasters Add Nothing Of Value The Guys Who Wrote Frosty The Snowman The First Guy To Ever Be A Bullfighter The First Guy To Ever Go Fishing The Guys Who Set Up Ancient Booby Traps The First Guy To Ever Win An Award How Is The Ocean A Real Thing?
Willy Wonka & The Chocolate Factory Pitch Meeting Rebel Moon: Part One Pitch Meeting

Comedy. A little crude/risque. Probably is funnier for women?:
The First Couple To Ever Get Married (ft. Ryan George) I Have A Boy Friend First Couple To Have A Baby

From the
Dami is a licensed Architect from Vancouver, BC, Canada. She is interested in presenting complex architectural concepts through multimedia and visual/audio storytelling. She talks about architecture, design, and creativity on her Youtube channel while also working to build a positive community for young architects.Her Youtube channel is about architecture, mostly. Both real and in (science fiction) movies.
How Akira Created The Most Iconic CyberPunk City Can this house slow down time? MEGACITIES: Reality or Fiction? [Architecture in Sci-Fi] CyberPunk Cities: Fiction or Reality?

Movie reviews. Some to watch first:
Why Ghostbusters 2016 FAILED - A scene comparison Prometheus - The Franchise Killer Star Trek: Beyond Stupidity Reacher - It's Really Good The Drinker Recommends... 1917
Drinker's Extra Shots - Tremors Drinker's Extra Shots - GoldenEye

What's the BEST Fridge to Buy? The Truth Will SURPRISE You!


Science.

Finance with a British sense of humour.

Finance.

Finance.

Economics. Mostly macro-economics.

Goes after Internet scammers. This include FTX and Sam Bankman-fried.


"My name is Grant Sanderson. Videos here cover a variety of topics in math, or
adjacent fields like physics and CS, all with an emphasis on visualizing the
core ideas. The goal is to use animation to help elucidate and motivate otherwise
tricky topics, and for difficult problems to be made simple with changes in perspective."

About airplanes and flying. Some to watch first:
WHAT was the REAL Reason Boeing KILLED the 757?? YOU have Misunderstood The De Havilland Comet.


Cool YouTube channel for:
https://www.forgottenweapons.com/


Mostly about fitness and the exercise and weightlifting culture:
The Dark Side Of Hollywood Body Transformations Why Elite Bodybuilders Keep Dying The Ideal Male Body Throughout History Please DON'T Follow Celebrity Fitness Advice

I, Mark, am fascinated by music (and the music industry), though I have no
talent at all. Rick has a bunch of explanations about what is going on that
I find interesting [I also found the book "The Song Machine: Inside the Hit
Factors" by John Seabrook to be interesting].
The Real Reason Why Music Is Getting Worse Why Are Bands Mysteriously Disappearing? How AI will slowly destroy the music business The Bach Effect: What the GREATS Hear That You Don't TOP 20 ONE HIT WONDERS OF THE '80s What Makes This Song Great? "More Than a Feeling" BOSTON

Focus mostly seems to be on the 1970s and 1980s with a little
bit of coverage before and after. My teenage years were in the 1980s
so a lot of these songs are familiar.
"Project Gutenberg is a library of over 75,000 free eBooks
Choose among free epub and Kindle eBooks, download them or read them online. You will find the world's great literature here, with focus on older works for which U.S. copyright has expired. Thousands of volunteers digitized and diligently proofread the eBooks, for you to enjoy.""
"The ebooks on this site are in the public domain in Australia (that is, they are not subject to copyright in Australia) and may be read and downloaded without charge.""
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"Standard Ebooks is a volunteer-driven project that produces new editions of public domain ebooks that are lovingly formatted, open source, free of U.S. copyright restrictions, and free of cost.
Ebook projects like Project Gutenberg transcribe ebooks and make them available for the widest number of reading devices. Standard Ebooks takes ebooks from sources like Project Gutenberg, formats and typesets them using a carefully designed and professional-grade style manual, fully proofreads and corrects them, and then builds them to create a new edition that takes advantage of state-of-the-art ereader and browser technology.
Standard Ebooks aren't just a beautiful addition to your digital library—they're a high quality standard to build your own ebooks on."
"On this site you will find versions of some classics of early modern philosophy, and a few from the 19th century, prepared with a view to making them easier to read while leaving intact the main arguments, doctrines, and lines of thought."
"18 million and counting. At HathiTrust, we are stewards of the largest digitized collection of knowledge allowable by copyright law. Why? To empower scholarly research, create transparency, and inspire curiosity."
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"This library gives readers access to a selection of free e-books hosted at two web sites—Roy Glashan's Library (RGL, formerly Freeread) and Project Gutenberg Australia (PGA). On the following pages book formats and locations are identified as follows:
...
The books offered at this web site are in the public domain. They may be freely downloaded for personal use and redistributed on a strictly non-commercial basis in any country where their copyright has expired and the distributor abides by the conditions described in the RGL Mission Statement and Distribution Licence.
Titles listed in grey are currently unavailable or still in copyright. These are listed for bibliographic reference only."

About Toki Pona
- Toki Pona is a simple yet complete human language I invented in 2001. It was my attempt to understand the meaning of life in 120 words.
- There are now tens of thousands of community members and about 120 to 140 words, depending on the speaker or metric used.
- Toki Pona is among the most popular constructed languages, second only to Esperanto by most metrics, and surpassing Esperanto among the younger generation.
- In 2024, University of Colorado Boulder invited me to give a talk to 120 attendees entitled From Personal Art Project to Small World Language.
- Read comparisons to Esperanto and common misconceptions.
- Toki Pona courses have been offered at various universities around the world.
- In 2022, ISO 639-3 adopted the code 'tok' for Toki Pona, which it categorized as a world language.

One of the best things about the Internet is that it both provides infrastructure for society but also demystifies that infrastructure. I've spent the last few years going deep on financial infrastructure while working at Stripe, and thought it might be useful to geek out about finance with software people and software with finance people.
- Dante, The Divine Comedy
- Geoffrey Chaucer, The Canterbury Tales
- Margery Kempe, The Book of Margery Kempe
- Marco Polo, Travels
- Geoffery of Monmouth, The History of the Kings of Britain
- Anonymous, The Mabinogion
- Anonymous, Beowulf
- Anonymous, The Nibelungenlied
- Omar Kayyam, The Rubiyat
- Anonymous, Sir Gawain and the Green Knight
The aim of this page is to provide the user with the means to learn to pronounce Chaucer's English and to acquire an elementary knowledge of Chaucer's grammar and vocabulary. It does not offer much on matters of style and versification and has almost nothing on the literary qualities of Chaucer's work. The users who work conscientiously through these materials should be ready to study such matters on their own (beginning with the materials on the Geoffrey Chaucer Website, and exploring other sources both on and off the Web).
Two threads worth reading:
I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-2009]
A thread that began 9-Oct-2008, deep in the 2008 recession. That day, the S&P 500 dropped 7.62%. The day prior it was down 1.13%. The days before that (in reverse order) down 5.74%, 3.85%, 1.35%, 4.03% and 0.45%. Between the opening price of 1,164.17 on Oct 1 and the closing price of 1,005.25 on Oct 9th, the S&P 500 lost about 14% of its value. Sheepdog posts:I have been retired for 10 years. I am one who has said over and over again. Stay the course. Look for the long term. Yeah, sure. That's fine until today. Today did it. I am just starting to be scared so that I won't tell my wife what happened today...stocks down...bonds down...I'm down. Our retirement funds are sucking down the drain. I lost today alone a year's worth of normal distributions for expenses. I keep thinking tomorrow will be a turn around. I have said that for 30 days.
I am 25% capitulating tomorrow, maybe 50% to money markets....maybe all."Maximum Tolerable Loss" -- Not just a fear factor
A thread that began 29-Dec-2008, deep in the 2008 recession. The S&P 500 was near 850, down from a peak of over 1,500. Tensions are a bit higher than typical. An illustration is this comment:With all due respect...and I have the utmost respect for you....last fall I posted a question about rebalancing and you clearly stated that you would rebalance thru thick and thin. There was NEVER any mention of a Plan B.
(
Good starting points:
- 2000:
The Case Against Micropayments - 2003:
Fame vs Fortune: Micropayments and Free Content - 2002:
Weblogs and the Mass Amateurization of Publishing - 2003:
A Group Is Its Own Worst Enemy - 2008:
Newspapers and Thinking the Unthinkable
So it turns out that Clay Shirkey didn't take his web-site down. He got hacked. Hacker News at Ycombinator has
This whole thread is giving me feels, but to the basics, I'll tell you how it happened.So it appears that right now the Wayback Machine is the best we have.
I'd been writing about what we came to call social media since the early 90s (alt.culture.usenet and alt.folklore.urban ftw), but by the middle of last decade, all anyone wanted to talk to me about was marketing on Facebook, which was the boringest possible topic.
At the same time, my wordpress host had lousy security, and my site was getting frequently disabled because of some malicious javascript uploaded through some hole they hand't patched. I wasn't writing there anymore, so it was pure cost at that point, and cost of my time, not just dollars.
Then I moved to Shanghai for several years, working on other stuff, and fixed the site a couple of times again, and one time, my host was like "We disabled your site!" because of their own security flaws had let it get hacked again, which, the whole thing had entered 'ugh field'territory.
I never decided to let the site lapse, I was just tired of dealing with it, and the political circumstances in both China and the U.S. seemed much more urgent than rescuing some historical essays, so one day at a time of not dealing with it became years.
And here we are, me reading my own eulogy. Which is incredibly flattering and touching, I have to say.
I'm not even sure what of it can be resuscitated -- maybe if I want it back, I'll have to copy it from Wayback (and will say "Thank you Brewster", not for the first time), but if anyone here has advice about competent and secure hosting for an old Wordpress blog, hmu at cshirky@gmail.com, because reading this, it makes me embarassed not to have just fucking fixed this a year or two ago.
"Welcome to the largest on-line museum dedicated solely to realist works of art. The ARC Museum features tens of thousands of images by thousands of artists. Choose from our options below to search the ARC Museum to discover works by 19th century and old master artists or visit our Museum of ARC Affiliated Artists which features works by ARC Living Masters, ARC Associate Living Masters, and ARC Living Artists. All of whom are dedicated to creating high quality 21st century realist works of art."

Web site with nifty articles about astronomy.
Professor Death Bronze Orientation Are We the Baddies? Kill All The Poor Brain Surgeon
Sports Go Sports by Garfunkel and Oates Pregnant Women are Smug by Garfunkel and Oates 29/31 by Garfunkel and Oates Weed Card by Garfunkel and Oates
Desperately Trying to Get Sold at a Slave Auction The Most Gullible Prison Guard Ever
Investment Banker Subprime Crisis
Phonetic Punctuation

Rory is an advertising executive with a lot of interesting opinions that
he explains well.
We Want Your Unemployment Stories Hello From the Underclass: Unemployment Stories, Vol. One Unemployment Stories, Vol. Two: We Are The Unseen Unemployment Stories, Vol. Three: 'Absolute Hell'
(The series also captures a number of poor life-choices made, it seems, by real people ...).
"No, English isn't uniquely vibrant or mighty or adaptable. But it really is weirder than pretty much every other language."
Cory Doctorow
Here is how platforms die: first, they are good to their users; then they abuse their users to make things better for their business customers; finally, they abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves. Then, they die.
I call this enshittification, and it is a seemingly inevitable consequence arising from the combination of the ease of changing how a platform allocates value, combined with the nature of a "two sided market," where a platform sits between buyers and sellers, hold each hostage to the other, raking off an ever-larger share of the value that passes between them.
It was officially called Action Park, but those who went there — and experienced the bone-breaking, skin-ripping rides firsthand — tended to call it other things. Traction Park and Class Action Park were two of the most popular nicknames, and sometimes, things are funny because they're true and mankind has a sick sense of humor.
Action Park was the brainchild of Eugene Mulvihill, a New Jersey developer who was looking for a way to keep his Vernon Valley ski resort popular in the off-season. New York Magazine says the first ride was the Alpine Slide, and it sort of set the tone for the rest of the park. The slides opened on Labor Day of 1976, and more attractions followed in 1978.
But, let's be honest here. How bad was it really? Let's start with the thoughts of Evan Schuman, an investigative reporter for the New Jersey Herald. He wrote, "Once you've read the autopsies of the people who have gone on the rides, you tend to want to avoid it."
PASSING NORTH THROUGH DOWNTOWN ON THE 110 FREEWAY toward Pasadena, between the Third and Fourth Street overpasses, artist Richard Ankrom found himself suddenly confused by the lack of official signage for the 5 North exit. Not clearly labeled overhead like signs for I-5 South, those for the 5 North, which occur two miles later, are haphazardly stuck on a roadside traffic pole, an afterthought at best. Ankrom could have called Caltrans and officially complained, further burdening the beleaguered civic bureaucracy. But being an artist, he did the next best thing:
He fixed it.
That is to say, following explicit specifications he found on the Internet and verified in the field, he crafted a red-white-and-blue "5 shield" and green "North" sign out of 0.080 mm 5053 aluminum, covered it with zinc chromate primer and Pantene colors, added an "age patina" of gray paint, and even special-ordered button reflectors, which are discontinued and stockpiled in a warehouse in Tacoma, Washington. (He had to tell the pesky warehouse clerk it was for a movie — not altogether untrue, as it turns out.)
After stashing the sign and a ladder in the roadside shrubbery — and stenciling the side of his truck with the logo "Aesthetic De-Construction" — he parked on the Third Street bridge just north of the existing sign, set out two orange traffic cones, donned an orange safety vest and hardhat, and physically mounted his homemade handiwork (taking care to sign the back first). He even mocked up a phony invoice, in the event that anyone objected. Yet despite legitimate road crews working the same stretch of freeway, no one seemed to notice.
...
Perhaps the most confounding question, though, is why so many people seem to believe that the unthinkable won’t happen to them.
...
Davis observes one trend among beginners and pros. "Seeing accidents with very inexperienced jumpers and very experienced jumpers, one thing we have in common is that the person is pushing it."
...
"I think that as soon as you make being an 'action-sports athlete' your profession, there's a huge risk factor," says Robb Gaffney, a psychiatrist based in Squaw Valley, California, arguably the definitive action-sports capital of the U.S. The Lake Tahoe region, including Squaw, has been hit hard in recent years as many of its local athletes have died pushing the limits.
"I think that the biggest factor for action-sports athletes is the fantasy of their identity as an action-sports athlete. Most of these athletes aren't making any money. In fact they might not even have health insurance," Gaffney adds. "And yet they're still doing something that could potentially kill them."
"Progression" is a loaded buzz word that you'll hear every top action-sports star use. Often, progression means gaining recognition by completing an objective that's so dangerous that no one else would ever be willing to attempt it.
Until someone else does — or dies trying.
- Cardiovascular health (Max VO2 ... so do cardio exercises)
- Strength (lift weights!)
- Muscle Mass (lift weights, but with a different focus)
- Balance (don't fall; very bad for the elderly)
... early in the book, I was absolutely dumbfounded by his description of the publishing business in 1931. He draws on a "landmark survey of publishing practices" carried out by one Orin H. Cheney, a banker, as a service to the National Association of Book Publishers.
Among the normal complaints about book publishers selection processes, we find this staggering stat about the retail business of selling books (emphasis added).
"In the entire country, there were only some four thousand places where a book could be purchased, and most of these were gift shops and stationary stores that carried only a few popular novels," Davis writes. "In reality, there were but five hundred or so legitimate bookstores that warranted regular visits from publishers' salesmen (and in 1931 they were all men). Of these five hundred, most were refined, old-fashioned 'carriage trade' stores catering to an elite clientele in the nation's twelve largest cities."
Alok and Jacob are two of the most publicly visible gender nonconforming femmes I know. As a performance poet, Alok has just gone solo after touring in dozens of cities in the US and abroad as one half of the poetry duo Darkmatter. Jacob was named to 2016's OUT 100, has made a web series for NBC, and been the subject of a GLAAD-nominated episode of MTV's True Life. Both are trans-identified, but belong somewhere in between genders, and they've amassed huge social media followings as gender nonbinary, femme, and fabulous human beings. They've become celebrities in their own right, with Jacob regularly walking down the red carpet at LGBTQ galas and Alok featuring in the Janet Mock-narrated HBO documentary The Trans List.
But if you think all that would land them a date, you'd be wrong. And nobody is more puzzled than me as to why such obvious catches are having dating problems when so many clamor for their attention.
It was all so painfully awkward. That night, Brittany Ashley, a lesbian stoner in red lipstick, was at Eveleigh, a popular farm-to-table spot in West Hollywood. The restaurant was hosting Buzzfeed's Golden Globes party. For the past two years, Ashley has been one of the most visible actresses on the company's four YouTube channels, which altogether have about 17 million subscribers. She stars in bawdy videos with titles like "How To Win The Breakup" or "Masturbation: Guys Vs. Girls," many of which rack up millions of views.
The awkward part was that Ashley wasn't there to celebrate with Buzzfeed. She was there to serve them. Not realizing that her handful of weekly waitressing shifts at Eveleigh paid most of her bills, a coworker from the video production site asked Ashley if her serving tray was "a bit." It was not.
Whenever I talk to a band who are about to sign with a major label, I always end up thinking of them in a particular context. I imagine a trench, about four feet wide and five feet deep, maybe sixty yards long, filled with runny, decaying shit. I imagine these people, some of them good friends, some of them barely acquaintances, at one end of this trench. I also imagine a faceless industry lackey at the other end holding a fountain pen and a contract waiting to be signed. Nobody can see what's printed on the contract. It's too far away, and besides, the shit stench is making everybody's eyes water. The lackey shouts to everybody that the first one to swim the trench gets to sign the contract. Everybody dives in the trench and they struggle furiously to get to the other end. Two people arrive simultaneously and begin wrestling furiously, clawing each other and dunking each other under the shit. Eventually, one of them capitulates, and there's only one contestant left. He reaches for the pen, but the Lackey says "Actually, I think you need a little more development. Swim again, please. Backstroke". And he does of course.
:
:
The band is now 1/4 of the way through its contract, has made the music industry more than 3 million dollars richer, but is in the hole $14,000 on royalties. The band members have each earned about 1/3 as much as they would working at a 7-11, but they got to ride in a tour bus for a month. The next album will be about the same, except that the record company will insist they spend more time and money on it. Since the previous one never "recouped," the band will have no leverage, and will oblige. The next tour will be about the same, except the merchandising advance will have already been paid, and the band, strangely enough, won't have earned any royalties from their T-shirts yet. Maybe the T-shirt guys have figured out how to count money like record company guys. Some of your friends are probably already this fucked.
As the 120-ton space shuttle sits surrounded by almost 4 million pounds of rocket fuel, exhaling noxious fumes, visibly impatient to defy gravity, its on-board computers take command. Four identical machines, running identical software, pull information from thousands of sensors, make hundreds of milli-second decisions, vote on every decision, check with each other 250 times a second. A fifth computer, with different software, stands by to take control should the other four malfunction.
:
:
But how much work the software does is not what makes it remarkable. What makes it remarkable is how well the software works. This software never crashes. It never needs to be re-booted. This software is bug-free. It is perfect, as perfect as human beings have achieved. Consider these stats : the last three versions of the program — each 420,000 lines long-had just one error each. The last 11 versions of this software had a total of 17 errors. Commercial programs of equivalent complexity would have 5,000 errors.
Pacific Tech's Graphing Calculator has a long history. I began the work in 1985 while in school. That became Milo, and later became part of FrameMaker. Over the last twenty years, many people have contributed to it. Graphing Calculator 1.0, which Apple bundled with the original PowerPC computers, originated under unique circumstances.
I used to be a contractor for Apple, working on a secret project. Unfortunately, the computer we were building never saw the light of day. The project was so plagued by politics and ego that when the engineers requested technical oversight, our manager hired a psychologist instead. In August 1993, the project was canceled. A year of my work evaporated, my contract ended, and I was unemployed.
I was frustrated by all the wasted effort, so I decided to uncancel my small part of the project. I had been paid to do a job, and I wanted to finish it. My electronic badge still opened Apple's doors, so I just kept showing up.
It was the most radical computer dream of the hacker era. Ted Nelson's Xanadu project was supposed to be the universal, democratic hypertext library that would help human life evolve into an entirely new form. Instead, it sucked Nelson and his intrepid band of true believers into what became the longest-running vaporware project in the history of computing - a 30-year saga of rabid prototyping and heart-slashing despair. The amazing epic tragedy.
