NCAA Football Top-25 Rankings Dashboard

Last Updated: 13-Dec-2023

The interpretation of the charts is the percent of top 'n' at each rank that is assigned to each conference. As an example, the conference with the #1 ranked team has 100% of the top-1 ranking. If a second conference has a team ranked #2, then the top-2 rankings are 50% for each of these two conferences. The visualization 'rewards' conferences with many ranked teams and with more highly ranked teams. This gives a visual representation of both the number of teams each conference has ranked in the top-25 and also how highly those teams are ranked.

Season:

Week:

No games played yet.

Others receiving votes

Texas Tech (101)
South Carolina [SEC] (73)
UCLA (66)
UTSA (64)
Arkansas [SEC] (22)
Boise State (17)

Pittsburgh (16)
Kentucky [SEC] (14)
Troy (10)
Louisville (10)
Auburn [SEC] (7)
Minnesota (6)

Duke (4)
Toledo (4)
Mississippi State [SEC] (4)
Florida [SEC] (4)
Baylor (3)
Illinois (3)

Coastal Carolina (3)
NC State (1)
South Alabama (1)
James Madison (1)
Liberty (1)

12 SEC teams recieved at least one vote to be in the top-25,
As was the case with the 2022 pre-season rankings, Missouri and Vanderbilt did not.

The Big-10 and SEC dominate the top of the rankings. The domination will likely increase next season.

The teams per Power 5 conference in the top-25 using this year's conference composition and next year's:

	Teams in Top-25
Conference	2023-24	2024-25
SEC	6	8	+Texas & +Oklahoma
Big 10	5	8	+Oregon, +Washington & +USC
Pac 12	5	1	Oregon State still in Pac-2
Big 12	4	3	+Utah; -Texas & -Oklahoma
ACC	3	3

Colorado

According to 247sports's transfer portal tracker Colorado, under new head coach Deion Sanders, has seen 56 players transfer out while 51 [Note: 53 total transfers in according to ESPN] players transfered in via the transfer portal (with a few players transfering in and then out a few months later!). In addition, the Colorado roster has 35 freshmen on the roster (some who redshirted and 4 that tranfered in). Colorado also has some junior college transfers (who need not go through the transfer portal). The net result is that, according to ESPN, "Only 10 scholarship players from the 2022 roster remain with the team."

The "free agent" era of college football is clearly here.

And it seems to be working as Colorado (1-11 last season) upset 21-point favorite #17 TCU (#2 overall last season after losing to Georgia in the championship game) to open its 2023 season.

ACC

Clemson managed to lose convincingly to Duke 28-7.

Big 10

Meanwhile, Nebraska continues its trademark "lose, but only by a touchdown or less" strategy by losing to open its 2023 season.

SEC

Florida lost to Utah on opening day by 24-11, reversing last year's opening day win 29-26.

LSU did not perform as expected.

Three SEC teams played ranked opponents: Florida vs #14 Utah, South Carolina against #21 North Carolina and #5 LSI against #8 Florida State. All three SEC teams lost.

Pac-12

The Pac-12 is now 13-0. Two wins were against Power-5 opponenets (Florida and TCU).

Team	Result(s)
USC	W 56-28 vs San Jose State (Mountain West, week 0)
Arizona	W 38-3 vs Northern Arizona (FCS)
Arizona State	W 24-21 vs Southern Utah (FCS)
Berkeley	W 58-21 vs North Texas (AAC)
Colorado	W 45-42 vs TCU (ACC)
Oregon	W 81-7 vs Portland State (FCS)
Oregon State	W 42-17 vs San Jose State (Mountain West)
Stanford	W 37-24 vs Hawai'i (Mountain West)
UCLA	W 27-13 vs Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt)
USC	W 66-14 vs Nevada (Mountain West)
Utah	W 24-11 vs Florida (SEC)
Washington	W 56-19 vs Boise State (Mountain West)
Washington State	W 50-24 vs Colorado State (Mountain West)

The five top teams are from five different conferences! This is unusual!

AAC

Four ranked teams and Clemson is not one of them!

Big 10

Three teams in the top seven, though those three teams (Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State) will all play each other later in the season.

Only one other ranked team, #25 Iowa, so a very top heavy showing.

Big 12

The Big 12 has three ranked teams, but two of those teams will be in the SEC next season.

Pac 12

The Pac 12 has an amazing eight ranked teams with four in the top 13.

The Pac-12 also has wins against other Power 5 teams:

USC over Florida (SEC)
Colorado over TCU (Big 12)
Utah over Baylor (Big-12)
Oregon over Texas Tech (Big-12)
Colorado over Nebraska (Big 10)
Washington State over Wisconsin (Big 10)

The Pac-12 has lost only three out-of-conference games!

SEC

The SEC is doing poorly this season. SEC teams have played five ranked (at the time of the game) opponents and have lost four of those games. In addition, ranked Texas A&M lost to unranked Miami (Fl):

Week 1: #14 Utah beat Florida 24 - 11
Week 1: #21 North Carolina beat South Carolina 31 - 17
Week 1: #8 Florida State beat #5 LSU 45 - 24
Week 2: Unranked Miami (Fl) beat #23 Texas A&M 48 - 33
Week 2: #11 Texas beat #3 Alabama 34 - 24
Week 2: #20 Mississippi beat #24 Tulane 37 - 20

Three SEC teasm ranked in the top-25 in the preseason poll have lost out-of-conference games. The SEC still has five teams ranked in the top-25, but four of them are ranked #10 or lower.

AAC

Big 10

Big 12

The big 12 now has only two teams ranked in the top-25. Both of those teams will be in the SEC next season.

Pac 12

Eight teams still ranked.

SEC

This is the worst SEC start to a football season in quite some time. Only one team ranked in the top-10 with only five teams undefeated: #1 Georgia, #15 Mississippi and unranked Missouri, Kentucky and Auburn.

The SEC is still highly though of by the AP voters, though: Only four teams with losses are ranked and all four are from the SEC.

AAC

Big 10

Only three ranked teams (all of whom will play each other), but all three are ranked in the top 6.

Big 12

Back up to three ranked teams!

Pac 12

The top four Pac-12 teams mostly play each other. In addition, USC still has to play Notre Dame.

	USC	Oregon	Utah	Other Ranked Opponents
Washington	Nov-4	Oct-14	Nov-11	Washington St., Oregon St.
USC		—	Oct-21	Notre Dame
Oregon			Oct-28	Washington St., Oregon St.

SEC

Seven ranked teams, but only Georgia is in the top 10.

Liberty is the only undefeated team not ranked in the top-25. Liberty is just behind Florida in the "others receiving votes" list, so can be though of as 27th.

ACC

Clemson lost to Miami(FL) and now are 4-3. I don't think Clemson has been 4-3 in over a decade.

Realistically, the ACC's playoff hopes are riding on Florida State.

Big 10

Only three ranked teams, but all are ranked in the top 10. If Florida State loses then the Big 10 have a (small) chance to send two teams to the playoffs.

Big 12

Both ranked teams, Texas and Oklahoma, will be in the SEC next season. They might meet again in the Big 12 championship game.

Utah, ranked #13, will be in the Big 12 next season.

Pac 12

Six teams are ranked.

SEC

Alabama ang Georgia are on track to meet in the SEC championship game.

In the SEC West, Alabama wins tiebreak against Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Arkansas while Auburn is 0-4 in SEC games so LSU is the only realistic threat to keep Alabama out of the SEC championship game. A second loss (except maybe to Georgia in that game, but probably even then) will likely doom Alabama's playoff chances, though.

In the SEC East, Georgia is 4-0 in SEC play and still has to play Missouri (3-1) and Florida (3-1). A loss to either could endanger Georgia's SEC championship game hopes. Winning both games — which are the next two Georgia games — likely locks up an SEC championship berth because with two wins Georgia will have a two game lead on all other SEC East teams.

The CFP committee has made things simple. The five undefeated Power-5 teams are ranked 1 - 5. The eight 1 loss Power-5 teams are ranked 6 - 13. Next we have every two loss Power-5 (and Notre Dame) team except for Rutgers (lost to Michigan and Wisconsin) and Iowa (lost to Penn State and Minnesota). Then we have 7-1 Tulane and 8-0 Air Force.

Only the top 13 teams have any realistic hope of making the playoff. The odds are pretty bad starting with #10 Mississippi because teams ranked #10 and below except for Louisville mostly need help to make their conference championship games.

In theory, there are 11 teams with playoff hopes. In practice, however, it is unlikely that Penn State will win out or that Mississippi will catch Alabama in the SEC West. Our effectively remaining teams with playoff hopes are thus:

	Opponent (with or without Playoff Hopes
Team	With	Without
Ohio State	#3 Michigan	Michigan State, Minnesota
Georgia	#9 Mississippi	Tennessee, Georgia Tech
Michigan	#10 Penn State, #2 Ohio State	Maryland
Florida State		Miami (FL), North Alabama, Florida
Washington		#18 Utah, #12 Oregon State, Washington State
Oregon		USC, Arizona State, #12 Oregon State
Texas		TCU, Iowa State, Texas Tech
Alabama		Kentucky, Chattanooga, Auburn
Mississippi	#2 Georgia	LA Monroe, Mississippi St.
Penn State	#3 Michigan	Rutgers, Michigan State
Louisville		Virgina, Miami (FL), Kentucky

In practice, after the conference regular season and conference playoffs:

ACC: Only Florida State is likely to make the playoffs. Maybe Louisville if Louisville wins out including beating Florida State in the ACC championship game, but Louisville would require one of the other conference leaders to also falter (eg. Texas losing in the Big 12 championship game).
Big 10: Only one of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State will be a playoff team unless two other conference leaders falter.
Big 12: Only Texas has a chance as all the other Big 12 teams have at least two losses.
Pac 12: If Washington and Oregon win out then they meet in the Pac-12 championship game.
SEC: Georgia and Alabama likely play each other in the SEC championship game.

If the front runners in each conference win out (Ohio State or Michigan, Georgia, Florida State, Washington, Texas) then Texas likely misses the playoffs.

If Texas wins out and Alabama also wins out then ... things get interesting. Both teams would have one loss, Texas will have beaten Alabama but Alabama has played a tougher schedule (including Georgia in the SEC championship game).

ACC

Clemson beat Notre Dame and avoided falling to 4-5.

Florida State and Louisville still have playoff hopes and have a good chance to play each other in the ACC conference championship game.

Louisville's remaining regular season games: Virginia (2-7), Miami (Fl) (6-3), Kentucky.

Florida States's remaining regular season games: Miami (Fl) (6-3), North Alabama, Florida.

Big 10

Michigan and Ohio State obviously have the best chance to make the playoffs. Ohio State has already beaten Penn State while Michigan plays Penn State this week.

Big 12

Playoff hopes are now riding exclusively on Texas.

TCU is now 4-5. Very few teams good enough to get to an NCAA FCS championship game failed to qualify for a bowl game in the subsequent season. TCU has three games remaining. These games are against: Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma. Things do not look promising for TCU to avoid a losing season. With a losing season they will join 2010 Texas as the only team to have a losing record after losing the championship game (in 2009).

A table of the other championship runners up is:

	Championship Game
Season	Winner	Loser	Loser's Next Season Result
1998:	Tennessee	beat Florida State	Florida State went 12-0; won the Championship Game
1999:	Florida State	beat Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech went 11-2; won the Gator Bowl
2000:	Oklahoma	beat Florida State	Florida State went 8-4; won the Gator Bowl
2001:	Miami (FL)	beat Nebraska	Nebraska went 7-7; lost the Independence Bowl
2002:	Ohio State	beat Miami (FL)	Miami went 11-2; won the Orange Bowl
2003:	LSU	beat Oklahoma	Oklahoma went 12-1; lost the Championship Game
2004:	USC	beat Oklahoma	Oklahoma went 8-4; won the Holiday Bowl
2005:	Texas	beat USC	USC went 11-2; won the Rose Bowl
2006:	Florida	beat Ohio State	Ohio State went 11-2; lost the Championship Game
2007:	LSU	beat Ohio State	Ohio State went 10-3; lost the Fiesta Bowl
2008:	Florida	beat Oklahoma	Oklahoma went 8-5; won the Sun Bowl
2009:	Alabama	beat Texas	Texas went 5-7; did not play in a bowl game
2010:	Auburn	beat Oregon	Oregon went 12-2; won the Rose Bowl
2011:	Alabama	beat LSU	LSU went 10-3; won the Chick-fil-A Bowl
2012:	Alabama	beat Notre Dame	Notre Dame went 9-4; won the Pinstripe Bowl
2013:	Florida State	beat Auburn	Auburn went 8-5; lost the Outback Bowl
2014:	Ohio State	beat Oregon	Oregon went 9-4; lost the Alamo Bowl
2015:	Alabama	beat Clemson	Clemson went 14-1; won the CFP Championship
2016:	Clemson	beat Alabama	Alabama went 13-1; won CFP championship
2017:	Alabama	beat Georgia	Georgia went 11-3; lost the Sugar Bowl
2018:	Clemson	beat Alabama	Alabama went 11-2; won the Citrus Bowl
2019:	LSU	beat Clemson	Clemson went 10-2; lost the Sugar Bowl
2020:	Alabama	beat Ohio State	Ohio State went 11-2; won the Rose Bowl
2021:	Georgia	beat Alabama	Alabama went 11-2; Won the Sugar Bowl
2022:	Georgia	beat TCU	TCU is currently 4-5

Pac 12

The Pac 12 standings are:

	Record		CFP
Team	Pac 12	Overall	Ranking	Losses
Washington	6-0	9-0	#5
Oregon	5-1	8-1	#6	Washington
USC	5-2	7-3		Washington, Utah, Notre Dame
Oregon State	4-2	7-2	#12	Washington State, Arizona
Utah	4-2	7-2	#18	Oregon State, Oregon

Oregon plays USC next week and Oregon State two weeks later. Losing either game would endanger Oregon's Pac 12 championship game chances.

Washington has games remaining against Utah, Oregon State and Washington State.

SEC

With three games remaining in the regular season and two SEC games remaining Georgia has a two game lead in the SEC East. Georgia's remaining games are against Mississippi, Tennessee and Georgia Tech. Wins against either Mississippi or Tennessee clinch the SEC East for Georgia.

Alabama has an effective two game lead in the SEC West with two SEC games remaining (three games total) because Alabama (6-0 in SEC play) wins tie-break against Mississippi (5-1 in SEC play) because Alabama won their head-to-head matchup. If Alabama wins against either Kentucky or Auburn then Alabama clinches the SEC West. In addition, Mississippi needs to beat Georgia next week or Alabama also clinches.

Georgia and Alabama are likely to play each other for the SEC championship and each look like a playoff team if they win out.

We now have 9 Power 5 teams with one loss or fewer. All have good (or better) chance of playing for their conference championship.

Conference	1-Loss or Fewer Teams and Statuses
ACC:	Florida State & Louisville. They can meet in the ACC championship game.
Big 10:	Michigan & Ohio State. They play each other in two weeks.
Big 12:	Texas is the only Big 12 team with fewer than two losses.
Pac 12:	Washington & Oregon. If Washington wins next week they clinch a spot in the Pac 12 championship game.
SEC:	Alabama & Georgia will meet in the SEC championship game.

All undefeated teams are ranked by the AP. The CFP committee is less impressed by Liberty (10-0) than the AP. James Madison (10-0) is ineligible for bowl games.

All Power 5 teams with two losses or fewer are ranked.

ACC

Clemson is now 6-4 and is bowl eligible.

TCU is now 4-6.

Big 12

Lots of teams are still competing for the 2nd championship game slot.

Big 10

Iowa plays the winner of Michigan vs. Ohio State for the Big 10 championship.

SEC

Missouri has a chance at a New Year's Six Bowl game.

Playoffs

The Power-5 conference championship games look like this:

Conference	Championship Game
ACC	#4 Florida State (12-0)	vs	#14 Louisville (10-2)
Big 10	#2 Michigan (12-0)	vs	#17 Iowa (10-2)
Big 12	#7 Texas (11-1)	vs	#18 Oklahoma State (10-3)
Pac 12	#3 Washington (12-0)	vs	#5 Oregon (11-1)
SEC	#1 Georgia (12-0)	vs	#8 Alabama (11-1)

The eight teams above with one loss or fewer have chances to make the playoffs and the top-5 teams control their own destiny: Each of them gets a playoff berth with a win.

1-loss Ohio State has an outside chance that improves a lot if both Florida State and Texas lose. Best for Ohio State is likely:

Florida State loses. With QB Jordan Travis injured and Florida State's weak schedule a 12-1 record with a loss in the ACC championship game excludes Florida State from a top-4 ranking. 10-2 Louisville won't be ranked top-4.
Michigan wins.
Texas loses so the Big-12 champion has two losses.
Washington wins. A 2-loss Oregon will not be ranked in the top-4
Georgia wins. A 1-loss Ohio State will rank higher than a 2-loss Alabama.

Oregon winning isn't too bad for Ohio State as Washington likely drops below Ohio State so the Pac-12 sends one team but almost certainly not two.

Alabama winning may be bad for Ohio State's playoff chances as a 1-loss SEC champion Alabama almost certainly gets a playoff spot and a 1-loss Georgia might rank higher than a 1-loss Ohio State.

Tulane and Liberty are vying for the Group-of-5 New Year's Six bowl slot.

The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl host CFP semi-final games this season.

The remaining New Year's Six Bowl games are: Orange (ACC team vs Notre Dame or Big 10 or SEC team), Cotton, Fiesta and Peach. Because of the Orange Bowl tie in with the ACC, the ACC may send two teams to New Years Six bowl games even if Louisville finished ranked outside the top 11.

A reasonable guess for the New Years Six bowl game participants is:

Group of Five - One team. Tulane or Liberty
ACC - Two teams — Florida State as a playoff team and Louisville to the Orange bowl. If Louisville beats Florida State then Louisville gets the Orange Bowl bid as ACC champion and the possibly higher-ranked than Louisville Florida State may go to a non-New Years Six bowl game. If so then the SEC might also get Mississippi into a New Years Six bowl game if Florida State falls far enough in the rankings.
Big 10 - Three teams: Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.
Big 12 - One team: Texas. Even if Texas loses to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game.
Pac 12 - Two teams: Washington and Oregon.
SEC - Three teams: Georgia, Alabama and Missouri. Alabama losing to Georgia might drop it below Missouri but it unlikely to drop it below 10-2 Mississippi which has a loss to Alabama. Mississippi has a chance if Florida State loses badly to Louisville.

Colorado

Colorado with new head coach Deion Sanders was a story for much of the season. Colorado finished 4-8 after going 1-11 last season:

Team	Record	Result	Score
Opponent
TCU	5-7	W:	54-42
Nebraska	5-7	W:	36-14
Colorado State	5-7	W:	43-35
#5 Oregon	11-1	L:	6-42
USC	7-5	L:	41-48
Arizona State	3-9	W:	27-24
Stanford	3-9	L:	43-46
UCLA	7-5	L:	16-28
#20 Oregon State	8-4	L:	19-26
#15 Arizona	9-3	L:	31-34
Washington State	5-7	L:	14-56
Utah	8-4	L:	17-23

The record seems indicative of Colorado's actual talent level. The team was 1-1 against teams with 3-9 records, 3-1 against teams with 5-7 records and lost to every opponent that finished the season with a winning record.

Colorado's primary problem is being ranked #118 out of 133 FBS teams in points allowed with 34.8 per game. Colorado is 54th in points scored per game with 28.2, which is better, but still not terribly competitive with the better Power-5 programs.

An interesting counterpoint is Northwestern, which also finished last season 1-11 but improved to 7-5 this season without replacing almost the entire team.

Florida State (13 - 0) has become the first undefeated Power-5 team to NOT make the 4-team BCS playoffs. The reason given by the playoff committee is that with Jordan Travis out for the season with a broken leg the FSU team is not one of the 4 best teams in the country. Which they probably are not :-(

Sports Illustrated provided some insight into the committee's thinking:

"In the eyes of the committee, Florida State is a different team without Jordan Travis," [CFP Committee Chair Boo Corrigan] said. "One of the things we do consider is player availability. Our job is to rank the best teams, and in the final decision looking at it was Alabama at four and Florida State at five."

During the selection show earlier Sunday on ESPN, Corrigan said that the coaches on the committee considered who they would rather face between the Crimson Tide and Seminoles. And the coaches agreed that Alabama was a better team, especially with Florida State missing their star quarterback.

Strength of schedule was also a big part of the discussion for the committee. Alabama had four wins over the top 25, and Florida State at three. Alabama had the fifth best strength of schedule, while Florida State's was 55th.

"It's a factor, and it's a part of our protocol as we look at it," Corrigan said. "Alabama's strength of schedule was significantly higher than Florida State's."

Looking at the statistics for the quarterbacks who replaced Jordan (and eliminating the game against FCS North Alabama) we see the following statistical summary for the various FSU quarterbacks:

		Passing
Player	Games	Completed	Attempted	%	Yards/Game	TDs	Ints	Rating
Jordan Travis	10	207	324	64%	276	20	2	155
Tate Rodemaker	1	12	25	48%	134	0	0	93
Brock Glenn	1	8	21	40%	90	0	0	70

Tate Rodemaker would be the FSU starter against (presumably) Michigan if FSU had made the playoffs instead of Alabama.

The playoff committee decided that FSU wasn't as good with Tate Rodemaker as QB as it was with Jordan Travis as QB ... by enough to matter for playoff consideration. For what it is worth, the Las Vegas betting odds favor #6 Georgia over #5 FSU in the Orange Bowl by about 14 points (though the spread also takes into account players that are expected to skip the bowl game). This spread is large for a New Years Six bowl game between two teams with similar rankings. 12-1 Alabama was "only" favored by 13 points against 13-0 AAC Cincinnati in the 2021-22 Cotton Bowl, for example.

Bowl Game odds look like this:

	Teams				Point
Bowl Game		Favorite		Underdog	Spread
Rose (CFP)	#1	Michigan	#4	Alabama	1.5
Sugar (CFP)	#2	Washington	#3	Texas	4.0
Peach	#10	Penn State	#11	Mississippi	4.0
Cotton	#7	Ohio State	#9	Missouri	2.5
Orange	#6	Georgia	#5	Florida State	14.0
Fiesta	#8	Oregon	#23	Liberty	16.0
Citrus	#21	Tennessee	#17	Iowa	7.5
RellaQuest	#13	LSU		Wisconsin	10.0
Alamo	#14	Arizona	#12	Oklahoma	3.5
Holiday	#15	Louisville		USC	8.0
Sun	#16	Notre Dame	#19	Oregon State	10.5
Pop-Tarts	#25	Kansas State	#18	NC State	4.5
Texas		Texas A&M	#20	Oklahoma State	4.0
Gator	#22	Clemson		Kentucky	7.0
Fenway	#24	SMU		Boston College	10.5

Oregon State will be playing without starting QB DJ Uiagalelei who has entered the transfer portal. This may (partially) explain why Notre Dame is favored by 10.5 points.

Oregon is favored to beat Liberty by over two touchdowns. But Liberty is ranked 15 places lower than Oregon.

This leaves #5 Florida State as a two touchdown underdog to #6 Georgia. The Las Vegas betting line suggests that the betting consensus is that Florida State is closer to the 15th best team in the country when missing Jordan Travis than the 4th or 5th best.

The CFP web site provides the following mission and principles for ranking teams:

Mission:
The selection committee's task will be to select the best teams, rank the teams for inclusion in the playoff and selected other bowl games and then assign the teams to sites.

Principles:
The selection committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:

Conference championships won,
Strength of schedule,
Head-to-head competition,
Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team's performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

-- CFP Selection Committee Protocol

Given this, a reasonable summary of FSU's exclusion is:

The CFP committee mandate is to select the (four) "best teams" for the playoffs.
The CFP committee did a reasonable job selecting the (four) "best teams" for the playoffs.
The CFP mandate kinda screwed 13-0 FSU our out of a playoff spot. Not getting a playoff spot when going 13-0 in a Power 5 conference seems pretty unfair.

A similar situation arose in 2014 when Ohio State lost their starting quarterback, J.T. Barrett, in the Ohio State vs. Michigan final game of the regular season. The replacement quarterback, Cardale Jones, started the Big 10 championship game vs Wisconsin (Wisconsin being favored to win by 4½ points after the injury to Barrett) and Ohio State won that game 59-0.

Comparing J.T. Barrett's stats for the season vs Cardale Jones' stats for the Big 10 championship game (Jones had played a few other snaps during the regular season), we see this:

		Passing
Player	Games	Completed	Attempted	%	Yards/Game	TDs	Ints	Rating
J.T. Barrett	12	203	314	65%	236	34	10	170
Cardale Jones	1	12	17	71%	257	3	0	256

The CFP sent Ohio State to the playoffs in 2014 behind Cardale Jones and Ohio State won the championship. Losing a quarterback does not require a team to be eliminated from the playoffs. The replacement quarterback just has to perform well enough that the team sees little or no dropoff.

A comparative look at top six (to show the top two teams that did not make the playoffs) of the CFP final rankings by season is (conference champions bolded, national champion in italics):

Season	#1 Team		#2 Team		#3 Team		#4 Team		#5 Team		#6 Team
2014:	Alabama	12-1	Oregon	12-1	FSU	13-0	Ohio State	12-1	Baylor	11-1	TCU	11-1
2015:	Clemson	13-0	Alabama	12-1	MSU	12-1	Oklahoma	11-2	Iowa	12-1	Stanford	11-2
2016:	Alabama	13-0	Clemson	12-1	Ohio State	11-1	Washington	12-1	Penn State	11-2	Michigan	10-2
2017:	Clemson	12-1	Oklahoma	12-1	Georgia	12-1	Alabama	11-1	Ohio State	11-2	Wisconsin	12-1
2018:	Alabama	13-0	Clemson	13-0	Notre Dame	12-0	Oklahoma	12-1	Georgia	11-2	Ohio State	12-1
2019:	LSU	13-0	Ohio State	13-0	Clemson	13-0	Oklahoma	12-1	Georgia	11-2	Oregon	11-2
2020:	Alabama	11-0	Clemson	10-1	Ohio State	6-0	Notre Dame	10-1	Texas A&M	8-2	Oklahoma	8-2
2021:	Alabama	12-1	Michigan	12-1	Georgia	12-1	Cincinnati	13-0	Notre Dame	11-1	Ohio State	10-2
2022:	Georgia	13-0	Michigan	13-0	TCU	12-1	Ohio State	11-1	Alabama	10-2	Tennessee	10-2
2023:	Michigan	13-0	Washington	13-0	Texas	12-1	Alabama	12-1	FSU	13-0	Georgia	12-1

In 2014 the Big 12 did not have a championship game (which explains why they had played 12 games rather than 13) and named both TCU and Baylor co-champions . Going into the the final weekend before playoff and bowl selection TCU was ranked #3 and Baylor was ranked #6. Coming out of the final week TCU dropped to #6 after beating 2-10 Iowa while Baylor rose to #5 by beating 9-3 Kansas State 38-27. Ohio State got the final playoff spot by beating 10-3 Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big 10 championship game. This chart does not show TCU and Baylor as Big 12 co-champions.
The 2020 season was odd because of Covid.
FSU has fared poorly. FSU made the CFP final ranking top-6 twice. This season an undefeated FSU was left out of the playoffs. In 2014, undefeated FSU was ranked behind two 12-1 conference champions (and lost their semifinal game 59-20 to Oregon so ranking FSU behind Orgeon wasn't an obvious error).
The SEC has placed 18 teams in the CFP final ranking top-6 over 10 seasons — 1.8 per season on average.
The SEC has sent 12 teams to the CFP playoffs over 10 seasons — 1.2 per season on average. In the past nine seasons (so not counting 2023-24) the SEC has won the championship six time (Alabama: 3; Georgia: 2; LSU:1).
The SEC has sent a team to the playoffs every season. The SEC has had a team in the finals in eight out of nine completed seasons (2014 final was Ohio State over Orgeon).

The final CFP rankings for this season look like this:

Rank	Team		Top-25 Wins	All Losses
1	Michigan	13-0	#7 Ohio State #10 Penn State #17 Iowa
2	Washington	13-0	#8 Oregon #8 Oregon #14 Arizona #19 Oregon State
3	Texas	12-1	#4 Alabama #20 Oklahoma State	#12 Oklahoma
4	Alabama	12-1	#6 Georgia #11 Mississippi #13 LSU #21 Tennessee	#3 Texas
5	Florida State	13-0	#13 LSU #15 Louisville #22 Clemson
6	Georgia	12-1	#9 Missouri #11 Mississippi	#4 Alabama
7	Ohio State	11-1	#10 Penn State #16 Notre Dame	#1 Michigan
8	Oregon	11-2	#21 Tennessee	#2 Washington #2 Washington
9	Missouri	10-2	#19 Oregon State	#6 Georgia #13 LSU
10	Penn State	10-2	#17 Iowa	#1 Michigan #7 Ohio State
11	Mississippi	10-2	#13 LSU	#4 Alabama #6 Georgia
12	Oklahoma	10-2	#3 Texas #24 SMU	#20 Oklahoma State Kansas (8-4)
13	LSU	9-3	#9 Missouri	#4 Alabama #5 Florida State #11 Mississippi
14	Arizona	9-3	#19 Oregon State	#2 Washington USC (7-5) Mississippi State (5-7)
15	Louisville	9-3	#16 Notre Dame #18 NC State	#5 Florida State Kentucky (7-5) Pittsburgh (3-9)
16	Notre Dame	9-3	#18 NC State	#7 Ohio State #15 Louisville #22 Clemson
17	Iowa	9-3		#1 Michigan #10 Penn State Minnesota (5-7)
18	NC State	9-3		#15 Louisville #16 Notre Dame Duke (7-5)
19	Oregon State	8-4		#12 Washington #8 Oregon #14 Arizona Washington State (5-7)
20	Oklahoma State	9-4	#12 Oklahoma #25 Kansas State	#3 Texas Iowa State (7-5) UCF (6-6) South Alabama (FCS)
21	Tennessee	8-4		#4 Alabama #6 Georgia #9 Missouri Florida (5-7)
22	Clemson	8-4	#16 Notre Dame	#5 Florida State #18 NC State Duke (7-5) Miami (FL) (7-5)
23	Liberty	13-0
24	SMU	11-2		#12 Oklahoma TCU (5-7)
25	Kansas State	8-4		#3 Texas #9 Missouri #20 Oklahoma State Iowa State (7-5)

Week:

No games played yet.

Others receiving votes

Tennessee (180)
Texas (164)
Iowa (163)
Penn State (160)
LSU (55)
Fresno State (32)
Minnesota (31)
UCF (27)
Purdue (17)
Mississippi State (15)
Auburn (15)
Florida (14)
Kansas State (14)
North Carolina (9)
Boise State (5)
Air Force (4)
Appalachian State (4)
UCLA (2)
Utah State (2)
San Diego State (2)
South Carolina (2)
Nebraska (1)

12 SEC teams recieved at least one vote to be in the top-25:

Alabama
Georgia
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Kentucky
Mississippi
Tennessee
LSU
Mississippi State
Auburn
Florida
South Carolina

Missouri and Vanderbilt did not.

To make life interesting the 2022 season has some "week 0" games so at the end of week 1 some teams have played two games. This allows for oddities such as Vanderbilt having the best record in the SEC at 2-0 ... because no other SEC team has played two games yet.

In other news after week 1:

The SEC is now 14-1 overall with the only loss being LSU against Florida State 24-23. Eight SEC teams are ranked in the top-25. Vanderbilt tops the SEC as the only team with two wins (though Vanderbilt is not ranked) and LSU takes up the rear. SEC conference wins included Georgia and Florida against ranked Pac-12 opponents. Unranked Florida beat defending Pac-12 champion and preseason AP #7 Utah 29-26.

Kentucky and Florida are probably Georgia's two toughest remaining games.

Alabama still has to play Texas as well as currently ranked Texas A&M, Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee.
The Pac-12 had three teams ranked in the preseason AP poll. Oregon (#11) was blown out by Georgia 49-3 and is no longer ranked. Utah (#7) lost to unranked Florida 29-26. USC (#14) did beat Rice.

Utah still has games scheduled against USC and Oregon. Utah's strength of schedule will make getting a playoff spot difficult.

Oregon still has games against Utah and (currently ranked) BYU.

USC still has games against Utah and Notre Dame.
Notre Dame lost. Without a championship game, Notre Dame's playoff hopes are now quite low. Notre Dame does still play currently ranked BYU, Clemson and USC so finishing 11-1 wit wins against those teams would keep Notre Dame in the playoff race, especially as beating USC would also hurt the Pac-12's playoff chances.

We can look at recent NCAA Football champions and see how they were regarded at the end of the previous season and in the preseason poll for the season in which they won the championship:

		AP Rank
Year	Champion	Preseason	Previous Year
2021	Georgia	5	7
2020	Alabama	3	8
2019	LSU	6	6
2018	Clemson	2	4
2017	Alabama	1	2
2016	Clemson	2	2
2015	Alabama	3	4
2014	Ohio St.	5	12
2013	Florida St.	11	10
2012	Alabama	2	1
2011	Alabama	2	10
2010	Auburn (14-0)	22	Unranked (8-5)
2009	Alabama	5	6
2008	Florida	5	13
2007	LSU	2	3
2006	Florida	7	12
2005	Texas	2	5
2004	USC	1	1
2003	USC	8	4
2002	Ohio St. (14-0)	13	Unranked (7-5)
2001	Miami (Fl)	2	2

A few things to notice:

Every team to win the championship in the past 21 years began the season ranked. Only three of the 21 teams began the season ranked outside the top 10.
19 of the 21 championship teams finished the previous season ranked in the top 13. The other two finished unranked, but began the championship season ranked (although low for an eventual champion — 22nd and 13th) and won with undefeated seasons.

Looking at this season we get the following candidates still in the playoff hunt:

Alabama (1-0)	Began season ranked #1, finished 2021 ranked #2
Ohio St. (1-0)	Began season ranked #2, finished 2021 ranked #6
Georgia (1-0)	Began season ranked #3, finished 2021 ranked #1
Clemson (1-0)	Began season ranked #4, finished 2021 ranked #14
Notre Dame (0-1)	Began season ranked #5, finished 2021 ranked #8
Texas A&M (1-0)	Began season ranked #6, finished 2021 unranked
Utah (0-1)	Began season ranked #7, finished 2021 ranked #12
Michigan (1-0)	Began season ranked #8, finished 2021 ranked #3
Oklahoma (1-0)	Began season ranked #9, finished 2021 ranked #10
Baylor (1-0)	Began season ranked #10, finished 2021 ranked #5
Oregon (0-1)	Began season ranked #11, finished 2021 ranked #22
Oklahoma St. (1-0)	Began season ranked #12, finished 2021 ranked #7
Michigan St. (1-0)	Began season ranked #15, finished 2021 ranked #9
Pittsburgh (1-0)	Began season ranked #17, finished 2021 ranked #13
Mississippi (1-0)	Began season ranked #21, finished 2021 ranked #11
Cincinnati (0-1)	Began season ranked #23, finished 2021 ranked #4

Top-25 losses and underperformances include:

#1: Alabama beat Texas by one point, 20-19.
#6: Texas A&M lost to Appalachian State
#8: Notre Dame lost to Marshall. At South Bend. After paying Marshall $1.25M to come play.
#17: Pittsburgh, last season's ACC champion, lost to #24 Tennessee
#12: Florida lost to #20 Kentucky
#19: Wisconsin lost to Washington State
#25: Houston lost to Texas Tech
#9: Baylor, last season's Big-12 champion, lost to #21 BYU

Texas played Alabama close enough that the loss moved Texas into the top-25.

Marshall and Appalachian State are just outside the top-25.

Notre Dame is just barely among the "others receiving votes."

Nebraska under Scott Frost continued the streak of losses by nine points or fewer and Scott Frost is no longer the Nebraska head coach.

Pac-12 (4 ranked teams)

The Pac-12, surprisingly, might be back in the playoff conversation.

With Notre Dame losing its second game last week and BYU losing this week, it now seems unlikely than any non-Power-5 teams will make the playoffs.

The Pac-12 does have the problem that the other four Power-5 conferences have teams ranked higher than USC, but there is a lot of season left and plenty of opportunities for those teams to lose. Washington beating Michigan State should help the Pac-12's perception and a zero loss Pac-12 champion probably makes the playoffs.

SEC

One crude way to think about how highly a conference (or team) is considered is to ask how 'bad' losing to that conference (or team) is.

This week there are nine teams with loses that are still ranked. These losses, by conference are:

Conference or Team	Loses To
SEC	6
BYU	1
Pac-12	1
Appalachian State	1

Undefeated teams by conference:

Conference	Count	Undefeated Teams with AP Ranking
American Athletic	0
ACC	4	#5 Clemson, #10 NC State, #23 Florida State, Syracuse
Big-12	3	#9 Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas
Big-10	4	#3 Ohio State, #4 Michigan, #11 Penn State, #21 Minnesota
Conference USA	0
Independents	0
Mid-American	0
Mountain West	0
Pac-12	3	#6 USC, #15 Washington, UCLA
SEC	5	#1 Georgia, #2 Alabama, #7 Kentucky, #8 Tennessee, #14 Mississippi
Sun Belt	2	Coastal Carolina, James Madison
	21

The four unbeaten but unranked Power-5 conference teams all appear in the "others receiving votes" list.

The only undefeated teams that received no votes are Coastal Carolina and James Madison.

ACC

#10 North Carolina State plays #5 Clemson next week.

Big-12

The top three ranked Big-12 teams still have to play each other.

Pac-12 (4 ranked teams)

The Pac-12 is back in playoff contention, but USC plays only one currently ranked team in the regular season: Utah. Meanwhile, Oregon plays Washington and Utah. USC running the table probably gets them into the playoffs, but with their weak schedule one loss might be enough to eliminate them.

Undefeated Teams

There are now 16 undefeated teams and the top ten ranked teams are undefeated. By conference it looks like this:

Conference	Count	Undefeated Teams with AP Ranking
SEC	4	#1 Alabama, #2 Georgia, #8 Tennessee, #9 Mississippi
Big-10	3	#3 Ohio State, #4 Michigan, #10 Penn State
Big-12	3	#9 Oklahoma State, #17 TCU,#19 Kansas
ACC	2	#5 Clemson, #22 Syracuse
Pac-12	2	#6 USC, #18 UCLA
Sun Belt	2	Coastal Carolina, James Madison
	16

All undefeated Power5 conference teams are ranked. Coastal Carolina and James Madison appear in the 'others receiving votes' list.

Top Six Teams' Wins

And a view of the top six teams, all undefeated, with their game results ordered roughly by the current strength of the opponent:

Alabama		Georgia		Ohio State		Michigan		Clemson		USC
Arkansas	49-26	#12 Oregon	49-3	Notre Dame	21-10	Iowa	27-14	#14 NC State	30-21	Arizona St	42-25
Texas	20-19	South Carolina	48-7	Wisconsin	52-21	Maryland	34-27	#15 Wake Forest	51-45	Orgeon St	17-14
Vanderbilt	55-3	Missouri	26-22	Rutgers	49-10	Connecticut	59-0	Georgia Tech	41-10	Stanford	41-28
Utah State	55-0	Kent State	39-22	Toledo	77-21	Hawai'i	56-10	LA Tech	48-20	Rice	66-14
LA Monroe	63-7	Samford	33-3	Arkansas St	45-12	Colorado St	51-7	Furman	35-12	Fresno St	45-17

It is worth noting that the top six teams have only three total wins against currently ranked opponents, and Clemson, which has two of those wins is ranked 5th rather than 1st. Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan and USC have played no currently ranked opponents.

Big-10 (3 ranked teams)

With three teams ranked in the top 10 and no other teams ranked the Big 10 is top heavy this year. In addition, all three ranked teams are in the Big 10 East and so each plays the other two. Any team winning both of its matchups will be strongly positioned to get a playoff spot. If the three teams all go 1-1 against each other things are still promising for whichever one wins the East.

Big-12 (4 ranked teams)

Oklahoma isn't ranked any more. With coaches being able to move schools and the transfer portal allowing players to move with the coach, pre-season rankings may need a rethink.

SEC (7 ranked teams)

Georgia's schedule has three currently ranked teams on it: Tennessee, Kentucky and Mississippi State. Georgia also plays Florida and Auburn.

Alabama's schedule has four currently ranked teams on it: Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi and Mississippi State. Alabama also plays Texas A&M and Auburn.

Tennessee and Mississippi each have the opportunity to beat both Alabama and Georgia.

Undefeated Teams

Conference	Count	Undefeated Teams with AP Ranking
SEC	4	#1 Georgia, #3 Alabama, #6 Tennessee, #9 Mississippi
Big-10	3	#2 Ohio State, #5 Michigan, #10 Penn State
Big-12	2	#8 Oklahoma State, #13 TCU
ACC	2	#4 Clemson, #18 Syracuse
Pac-12	2	#7 USC, #11 UCLA
Sun Belt	2	#25 James Madison, Coastal Carolina
	15

All undefeated teams except for Coastal Carolina are ranked. Coastal Carolina appears in the 'others receiving votes' list.

No Group of 5 team will make the playoffs. Every Power 5 conference has at least one team in the top eight and all Power 5 conferences (including the Pac-12) are still in the playoff hunt.

ACC (4 ranked teams)

Clemson has already beaten Wake Forest and North Carolina State. Clemson plays Syracuse in two weeks.

Big 10 (4 ranked teams)

Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State all still have to play each other.

Big 12 (5 ranked teams)

The remaining regular season games for currently ranked teams:

	Remaining Regular Season Opponents
Big 12 Team	Currently Ranked					Currently Unranked
#8 Oklahoma State (6-0)		TCU	Kansas State	Kansas	Texas	West VA, IA State, Oklahoma
#13 TCU (5-0)	Oklahoma State		Kansas State		Texas	West VA, Texas Tech, IA State, Baylor
#17 Kansas State (5-1)	Oklahoma State	TCU		Kansas	Texas	West VA, Baylor
#19 Kansas (5-1)	Oklahoma State		Kansas State		Texas	Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Baylor
#22 Texas (4-2)	Oklahoma State	TCU	Kansas State	Kansas		IA State, Baylor

Pac 12 (4 ranked teams)

The remaining regular season games for currently ranked teams:

	Remaining Regular Season Opponents
Pac 12 Team	Currently Ranked				Currently Unranked
#8 USC (6-0)		UCLA		Utah	Notre Dame, Cal, Arizona, Colorado
#13 UCLA (5-0)	USC		Oregon		Stanford, Cal, Arizona, ASU
#17 Oregon (5-1)		UCLA		Utah	Washington, Cal, Oregon St., Colorado
#19 Utah (5-1)	USC		Oregon		Washington St., Arizona, Stanford, Colorado

SEC (6 ranked teams)

The remaining regular season games for currently ranked teams:

	Remaining Regular Season Opponents
SEC Team	Currently Ranked	Currently Unranked
#1 Georgia (6-0)	Tennessee, Mississippi St., Kentucky	Florida, Vanderbilt, GA Tech.
#3 Alabama (6-0)	Tennessee, Mississippi, Mississippi St.	LSU, Auburn, Austin Pey
#6 Tennessee (5-0)	Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky	S. Carolina, Missouri, Vandy, TN-Martin
#9 Mississippi (6-0)	Alabama, Mississippi St.	Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M, Arkansas
#16 Mississippi St. (5-1)	Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky	Auburn, Eastern TN St.
#23 Kentucky (4-2)	Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi St.	Missouri, Louisville, Vanderbilt

Undefeated Teams

Conference	Count	Undefeated Teams with AP Ranking
SEC	3	#1 Georgia, #3 Tennessee, #7 Mississippi
Big-10	2	#2 Ohio State, #4 Michigan
Big-12	1	#8 TCU
ACC	2	#5 Clemson, #14 Syracuse
Pac-12	1	#9 UCLA
	9

All undefeated teams are ranked in the top 14. No Group of Five team is undefeated.

Which Conferences Do Ranked Team Losses Come From?

Conference or Team	# of Losses To
SEC	9
ACC	3 (Clemson x2, Syracuse)
Big-10	2 (Indiana, Michigan)
Pac-12	2 (Utah, UCLA)
Big-12	2 (TCU, Texas Tech)
Notre Dame	1
AAC	1 (Tulane)
Conference USA	1 (Southern Miss.)

ACC (5 ranked teams)

Clemson plays Syracuse this upcoming week. If Clemson wins then it will have beaten all the ranked ACC teams on its regular season schedule.

Big 10 (4 ranked teams)

It is realistically coming down to Ohio State and Michigan.

Big 12 (4 ranked teams)

Still surprisingly open.

Pac 12 (4 ranked teams)

The Pac-12 championship game takes the two Pac-12 teams with the best conference record. Oregon's loss to Georgia thus doesn't count. The top four Pac-12 teams, their conference losses and their remaining ranked Pac-12 teams are:

Team	Pac-12 losses	Remaining Ranked Pac-12 Opponents
UCLA	0	USC, Oregon
Oregon	0	UCLA, Utah
USC	1	UCLA, Utah
Utah	1	USC, Oregon

It appears than any of these teams can guarantee a Pac-12 conference championship by winning out.

SEC (6 ranked teams)

The remaining regular season games for currently ranked teams:

	Remaining Regular Season Opponents
SEC Team	Currently Ranked	Currently Unranked
#1 Georgia (7-0)	Tennessee, Mississippi St., Kentucky	Florida, GA Tech.
#3 Tennessee (6-0)	Georgia, Kentucky	S. Carolina, Missouri, Vandy, TN-Martin
#6 Alabama (6-1)	Mississippi, Mississippi St.	LSU, Auburn, Austin Pey
#7 Mississippi (6-0)	Alabama, Mississippi St.	LSU, Texas A&M, Arkansas
#19 Kentucky (5-2)	Georgia, Tennessee	Missouri, Louisville, Vanderbilt
#24 Mississippi St. (5-2)	Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi	Auburn, Eastern TN St.

Tennessee's big problem is that it plays Georgia and is in the SEC East along with Georgia, so a loss to Georgia will likely prevent Tennessee from participating in the SEC championship game. The same holds true for Georgia losing to Tennessee, of course, and Georgia now appears to have a tougher remaining schedule than Tennessee because of one extra game against a ranked opponent.

Alabama, with one loss, can still go to the SEC Championship game if it beats Mississippi and Mississippi State. This is a tall order, given how Alabama is playing, and the reward would likely be either playing Georgia or a rematch with Tennessee. If Mississippi beats Alabama then Mississippi has the inside track to winning the SEC West.

Undefeated Teams

Conference	Count	Undefeated Teams with AP Ranking
SEC	2	#1 Georgia, #3 Tennessee
Big-10	2	#2 Ohio State, #4 Michigan
Big-12	1	#7 TCU
ACC	1	#5 Clemson
Pac-12	0
	6

Clemson (8-0) has beaten all three currently ranked teams on its regular season schedule. No other top-5 team has wins over three currently ranked opponents. Ohio State, in fact has no wins over currently ranked opponents. Or even opponents in the 'others receiving votes' list. Of the six undefeated teams, one of these rankings is not like the others:

Team		Record	Best wins
1)	Georgia	(7-0)	#8 Oregon (6-1) and #25 South Carolina (5-2)
2)	Ohio State	(7-0)	Toledo (5-3), Notre Dame (4-3), Rutgers (4-3) and Wisconsin (4-4)
3)	Tennessee	(7-0)	#6 Alabama (7-1) and #18 LSU (6-2)
4)	Michigan	(7-0)	#13 Penn State (6-1)
5)	Clemson	(8-0)	#11 Wake Forest (6-1), #16 Syracuse (6-1) and #24 NC State (5-2)
7)	TCU	(7-0)	#9 Oklahoma State (6-1), #22 Kansas State (5-2)

This ranking behavior has happened before. In the 2019 season a 10-2 Alabama team was ranked 13th going into the playoff in spite of having no wins against ranked opponents. Alabama beat pre-game 14th ranked Michigan so Alabama's ranking wasn't obviously wrong.

This does cause one to wonder, however: How weak a schedule can one play and still be ranked in the top 4?

ACC (5 ranked teams)

Big 10 (4 ranked teams)

It is realistically coming down to Ohio State and Michigan.

Big 12 (3 ranked teams)

Realistically down to TCU or OK State.

Pac 12 (4 ranked teams)

Currently the Power 5 conference on the outside of the playoffs looking in, but there is still plenty of time for the Big 12 or the ACC to come apart.

The Pac 12's biggest risk is probably that if the Big 12 or the ACC don't send a team to the playoffs then the SEC or Big 10 will pick up the slack by sending two teams ... still, a Pac 12 champion, one loss, Oregon with that loss to Georgia would be compelling to the playoff comittee.

SEC (7 ranked teams)

Mississippi State dropped out of the top-25. LSU and South Carolina are now ranked.

Very broadly, the top 12 teams still have realistic chances for a playoff spot. Starting with #13, Kansas State (6-2), none do, though if #16 Illinois (7-1) wins out — which means beating Michigan or Ohio State — then Illinois probably gets a playoff spot as the Big 10 champion.

ACC (5 ranked teams)

Clemson has a two game or greater lead on every other team in the ACC Atlantic division and wins the tie-break against each of the teams that are only two games behind. Meanwhile, UNC has at least a two game lead on every other team in the ACC Coastal division and, as with Clemson, wins tie-break against each of the teams that are only two games behind.

The ACC championship game is looking to be Clemson vs. North Carolina.

Big 10 (4 ranked teams)

If Ohio State, Michigan or Illinois win out then they likely get a playoff spot. Illinois has a two game lead over Purdue in the Big 10 West. Ohio State and Michigan have two game leads over the other Big 10 East teams and the two meet at the end of November.

Big 12 (4 ranked teams)

TCU is undefeated and every other Big 12 team has at least two losses. The Big 12 hopes are riding on TCU.

SEC (5 ranked teams)

All five ranked SEC teams can expect a playoff invitation if they win out. Obviously, they cannot all win out.

Pac 12 (5 ranked teams)

Oregon, UCLA and USC all have realistic hopes for a playoff spot.

ACC (4 ranked teams)

With Clemson's loss to Notre Dame and overall weak schedule the ACC will not have a playoff team this season.

Big 10 (4 ranked teams)

Ohio State or Michigan are almost guaranteed to get a playoff berth. The loser of Ohio State vs. Michigan will (most likely) be compared against Tennessee as highly ranked 11-1 teams that did not make their conference playoffs. This likely only matters if TCU in the Big 12 stumbles or the Pac 12 champion has two losses.

Big 12 (3 ranked teams)

All the Big 12 hopes ride on TCU. A one loss TCU, even if TCU wins the Big 12, may compare unfavorably against a one loss Tennessee, Michigan or Ohio State for a playoff spot.

SEC (6 ranked teams)

Georgia will almost certainly play LSU for the SEC Championship. Georgia has a 6-0 record in SEC play and beats Tennessee for the SEC East on tie break. For Georgia to not play in the SEC championship game, Georgia must lose to both Mississippi State (6-3, 3-3 in SEC) and Kentucky (6-3, 3-3 in SEC) while Tennessee beats all three of: Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt.

Tennessee probably does win all three of those games, but Georgia is unlikely to lose both of its remaining SEC games.

Meanwhile, LSU is almost certainn to be the SEC West participant in the SEC championship. LSU wins tie break against Mississippi and Alabama and so must lose to both Arkansas (5-4, 2-3 in SEC) and Texas A&M (3-6, 1-5 in SEC) while Alabama beats Mississippi and Auburn or Mississippi beats Alabama, Arkansas and Mississippi State.

So the SEC Championship game is almost certainly sgoing to feature Georgia vs. LSU.

A two loss LSU beating Georgia in the SEC championship game would create an interesting playoff decision.

SEC (5 ranked teams)

Oregon, UCLA and USC all have good playoff chances if they win out. A 12-1 Pac 12 champion has a good chance of making the playoffs. A two loss Pac 12 champion does not.

All the playoff candidate teams are in the top 10, but Alabama and Utah are realistically eliminated:

Team	Record
Georgia	10-0
Ohio State	10-0	Ohio State and Michigan play each other.
Michigan	10-0	Ohio State and Michigan play each other.
TCU	10-0	Only Big-12 team with a chance at the playoffs.
Tennessee	9-1
LSU	8-2	A 2-loss team has never made the playoffs
USC	9-1	USC in the only 1-loss Pac-12 team remaining
Alabama	8-2	Not going to the playoffs.
Clemson	9-1	Clemson's schedule is weak even if they win out
Utah	8-2	A 2-loss Pac 12 team doesn't go to the playoffs

Bold indicates can still make conference championship.

There are seven (maybe eight if one includes Clemson) team with a realistic chance of making the playoffs. By conference, the playoff picture looks like this:

Conf	Conference Championship Game Prospects
ACC	Clemson probably plays UNC. Only Clemson can make the playoffs, though even this is unlikely.
Big 10	Winner of Michigan vs. Ohio State plays a 3 or more loss team with no chance of making the playoffs. The loser of Michigan vs. Ohio State has a chance of making the playoffs.
Big 12	TCU plays a 3-loss (or more) team with no chance of making the playoffs.
Pac 12	Only 1-loss USC has a realistic chance of making the playoffs.
SEC	Georgia plays LSU. If Georgia wins, Tennessee might make the playoffs. If LSU wins we might see the first 2-loss team in the playoffs.

Playoffs

It is imaginable that we have three undefeated conference winners when the playoff spots are awarded: Georgia, Michigan or Ohio State, TCU.

Some games this week that mattered for the College Football Playoffs:

Rank	Team	Result	Comment
1	Georgia	W: 16-6	2-0 against currently ranked teams (Oregon and Tennessee). Kentucky was 6-4 going into the game.
2	Ohio State	W: 43-30	2-0 against currently ranked teams (Notre Dame and Penn State). Maryland (6-4 going into the game) had the ball and OSU was up by six points with 47 seconds to go when the Maryland QB fumbled.
3	Michigan	W: 19-17	1-0 against currently ranked teams (Penn State). Michigan took the lead from Illinois (7-3 going into the game) on a field goal with less than one minute to play.
4	TCU	W: 29-28	2-0 against currently ranked teams (TCU and Texas). TCU took the lead from Baylor (6-4 going into the game) on a field goal as time expired.
5	LSU	W: 41-10	2-2 against currently ranked teams. Next two games are against Texas A&M and Georgia.
6	USC	W: 48-45	2-1 against currently ranked teams. #15 Notre Dame plays USC in Los Angeles next week. USC plays in the Pac-12 championship the week after.
7	Alabama	W: 34-0	2-2 against currently ranked teams. 34-0 over Austin Peay, an FCS team. Two losses and can't make SEC title game so no playoff berth.
8	Clemson	W: 40-0	1-1 against currently ranked teams (Notre Dame and FSU). Beat Miami (5-5 going into the game) soundly. A weak schedule and UNC and NC State losing did not help Clemson's playoff chances.
9	Oregon	W: 20-17	2-2 against currently ranked teams (Georgia, Washington, UCLA, Utah). If Oregon beats Oregon State next week, they meet USC for the Pac-12 championship.
10	Tennessee	L: 63-38	This loss eliminates Tennessee from playoff consideration.
14	Utah	L: 17-20	Utah now has three losses.
16	Florida State	W: 49-17	Florida State winning makes LSU's loss more respectable. Clemson's win over FSU is Clemson's only win over a currently ranked team.
17	North Carolina	L: 21-17	North Carolina will play Clemson for the ACC title, and losing hurts Clemson's playoff chances.
20	Mississippi	L: 42-27
—	North Carolina State	L: 25-10	This loss means Clemson has won only one win against a currently ranked opponent, Florida State.

ACC

Clemson's playoff hopes were not helped by North Carolina and NC State losing. Going into the playoffs and bowl games Clemson may have only one win against a currently ranked team (Florida State).

Big 12

TCU (11-0) is still undefeated. No other Big 12 team can make the playoffs.

Big 10

Michigan (11-0) plays Ohio State (11-0) and the loser finished the season 11-1. The winner plays an unranked team in the Big 10 championship game and probably finished 13-0.

Pac 12

USC (10-1) plays Notre Dame next week and then plays in the Pac 12 championship game. Oregon (9-2) plays Oregon State (8-3) next week and if Oregon wins then they play USC.

SEC

#1 Georgia (11-0) plays #6 LSU (9-2) for the championship no matter what happens next week.

Rank	Team		Top-25 Wins	All Losses
1	Georgia	13-0	#6 Tennessee #15 Oregon #17 LSU #19 South Carolina #22 Mississippi St.
2	Michigan	13-0	#4 Ohio State #11 Penn State
3	TCU	12-1	#9 Kansas State #20 Texas	#9 Kansas State
4	Ohio State	11-1	#11 Penn State #21 Notre Dame	#2 Michigan

Some details on the final AP rankings:

Rank	Team		Top-25 Wins	All Losses
1	Georgia	15-0	#2 TCU #4 Ohio State #6 Tennessee #15 Oregon #16 LSU #20 Mississippi St. #23 South Carolina
2	TCU	13-2	#3 Michigan #14 Kansas State #25 Texas	#1 Georgia #14 Kansas State
3	Michigan	13-1	#4 Ohio State #11 Penn State	#2 TCU
4	Ohio State	11-2	#7 Penn State #18 Notre Dame	#1 Georgia #3 Michigan
5	Alabama	11-2	#14 Kansas State #20 Mississippi State #25 Texas	#6 Tennessee #16 LSU
6	Tennessee	11-2	#5 Alabama #13 Clemson #16 LSU #22 Pittsburgh	#1 Georgia #23 South Carolina
7	Penn State	11-2	#10 Utah	#3 Michigan #4 Ohio State
8	Washington	11-2	#15 Oregon #17 Oregon State #25 Texas	#21 UCLA Arizona State
9	Tulane	12-2	#12 USC #14 Kansas State	UCF Southern Mississippi
10	Utah	10-4	#12 USC #12 USC #17 Oregon State	#7 Penn State #15 Oregon #21 UCLA Florida
11	Florida State	10-3	#16 LSU	#13 Clemson NC State Wake Forest
12	USC	11-3	#17 Oregon State #18 Notre Dame #21 UCLA #24 Fresno State	#9 Tulane #10 Utah #10 Utah
13	Clemson	11-3	#11 Florida State	#6 Tennessee #18 Notre Dame #23 South Carolina
14	Kansas State	10-4	#2 TCU	#2 TCU #5 Alabama #9 Tulane #25 Texas
15	Oregon	10-3	#10 Utah #21 UCLA	#1 Georgia #8 Washingon #17 Oregon State
16	LSU	10-4	#5 Alabama #20 Mississippi State	#1 Georgia #6 Tennessee #11 Florida State Texas A&M
17	Oregon State	10-3	#15 Oregon #24 Fresno State	#8 Washington #10 Utah #12 USC
18	Notre Dame	9-4	#13 Clemson #23 South Carolina	#4 Ohio State #12 USC Stanford Marshal
19	Troy	12-2		Mississippi Appalachian State
20	Mississippi State	9-4		#1 Georgia #5 Alabama #16 LSU Kentucky
21	UCLA	9-4	#8 Washington #10 Utah	#12 USC #15 Oregon #22 Pittsburgh Arizona
22	Pittsburgh	9-4	#21 UCLA	#6 Tennessee Louisville UNC Georgia Tech
23	South Carolina	8-5	#6 Tennessee #13 Clemson	#1 Georgia #18 Notre Dame Missouri Florida Arkansas
24	Fresno State	10-4		#12 USC #17 Oregon State Connecticut Boise State
25	Texas	8-5	#14 Kansas State	#2 TCU #5 Alabama #8 Washington Texas Tech Oklahoma State
	Duke	9-4		#22 Pittsburgh Kansas Georgia Tech UNC
27	UTSA	11-3		#25 Texas #19 Troy Houston
	Air Force	10-3		Boise State Wyoming Utah State
	Boise State	10-4	#24 Fresno State	#17 Oregon State #24 Fresno State BYU UTEP
	Minnesota	9-4		#7 Penn State Iowa Purdue Illinois

And some thoughts:

#2 TCU - #4 Ohio State:
Only two teams played Georgia closely, Missouri and Ohio State. Given the beat down that Georgia laid on TCU I find it surprising that 2-loss TCU is ranked above 2-loss Ohio State.

I wonder if any voters actually believe that TCU is better than Alabama or Tennessee?

Still, making the following results consistent is tough:
- Michigan crushed Ohio State 45-23 at Ohio State on November 26, 2022. So clearly Michigan is better than Ohio State.
- TCU beat Michigan 51-45 on December 31, 2022. The most points Michigan had given up previously this season was 27 to Maryland. So clearly TCU is better than Michigan.
- Ohio State almost beat Georgia — one of only two teams this year that can make this claim — while TCU was blown out 65-7. So clearly Ohio State is better than TCU.
It appears that the AP voters in the aggregate just decide that the two teams that made the championship were #1 and #2 and Michigan beat Ohio State so Michigan was #3 and Ohio State was to #4.
#10 Utah:
4-loss Utah is ranked above every 3-loss team. The three wins against ranked (in the final poll) opponents helps. 3-loss USC would probably be ranked higher than Utah if Utah hadn't beaten USC twice.
#11 Florida State:
I don't see why Florida State is ranked above USC. Florida State has one win against a ranked opponent and USC has four wins. All three of USC's losses were to top-10 teams while Florida lost to two unranked teams.

Week:

No games played yet.

ACC

Well, the ACC started off the season with three ranked teams (Clemson, North Carolina, Miami). All three managed to lose, two of them (Clemson and Miami) to SEC teams (Georgia and Alabama respectively).

Pac-12

Unranked UCLA managed to beat #16 LSU, which helps make the Pac-12 looks good.

But then #20 Washington managed to lose to FCS Montana ... at home.

ACC (4 ranked teams)

All four ranked ACC teams won

Big-10 (5 ranked teams)

Ohio State lost to Oregon. In Ohio. The top ranked Big-10 team is now Iowa, who beat Iowa State over the weekend. Iowa still has to play Penn State and Wisconsin, but has a reasonable shot at playing in the Big-10 championship game.

Ohio State still has to play Michigan and Penn State and probably cannot afford a second loss and still make the national playoffs.

Big-12 (2 ranked teams)

Iowa State lost to Iowa and Texas managed to lose to Arkansas (Arkansas was 3-7 last year, 11-35 in the last four seasons). The Big-12 conference hopes are now mostly riding on Oklahoma, which has a weak out of conference schedule (Tulane, WCU, Nebraska) and not much tough competition from within the Big-12. Iowa State and Oklahoma meet on November 20.

Pac-12 (3 ranked teams)

Oregon beat Ohio State at Ohio State. Great news for the Pac-12 as the Pac-12 now has a team ranked in the top four. Bad news for the Pac-12 is that:

Colorado played Texas A&M close, but still lost.
Cal lost to TCU
Washington followed up last week's loss to Montana (FCS) with a loss to Michigan
Arizona lost to San Diego State
Utah lost to BYU (which beat Arizona last week)
USC lost to Stanford

Pac-12 hopes are now mostly riding on Oregon, though UCLA is also highly ranked, though without a super compelling win (UCLA beat a ranked LSU team, but LSU went 5-5 last year and may finish the season unranked). UCLA plays Oregon on the 23rd of October.

The three 2-0 Pac-12 teams (Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State) are all ranked, but the other teams in the conference have at least one loss each.

SEC (7 ranked teams)

Alabama is ranked #1 after beating Miami (FL) in week 1. Georgia is ranked #2 after beating Clemson. Texas A&M dropped from #5 to #7 after struggling to beat Colorado (and also after losing their starting quarterback). Florida moved up to #11 and Mississippi moved up to #17. Arkansas is now ranked at #20 after embarrasing Texas. Auburn rounds out the ranked SEC teams at #23.

Alabama and Georgia do not meet in the regular season. However, the other five ranked SEC teams all play Alabama.

Ranked Opponents Remaining
Team
Alabama			Texas A&M	Florida	Mississippi	Arkansas	Auburn
Georgia				Florida		Arkansas	Auburn
Texas A&M	Alabama				Mississippi	Arkansas	Auburn
Florida	Alabama	Georgia
Mississippi	Alabama		Texas A&M			Arkansas	Auburn
Arkansas	Alabama	Georgia	Texas A&M		Mississippi		Auburn
Auburn	Alabama	Georgia	Texas A&M		Mississippi	Arkansas		... and Penn State

It is unlikely that there are enough wins to go around for all these teams to be ranked in the top 25 at the end of the seasons.

ACC (2 ranked teams)

Virginia Tech managed to lose to (unranked, but favored!) West Virginia and Miami lost to Michigan State to fall to 1-2. The ACC now has two undefeated teams left, neither ranked. The two ranked teams (Clemson and North Carolina) do not play each other in the regular season. North Carolina is scheduled to play Notre Dame on October 30. Clemson plays no currently ranked teams in the upcoming regular season schedule.

Big-10 (6 ranked teams)

Penn State and Iowa continue to look good. Michigan State is now ranked. As with the SEC, many of these ranked teams will play each other in the coming months:

Ranked Opponents Remaining
Team
Iowa		Penn St.		Wisconsin
Penn St	Iowa		Ohio St.		Michigan	Michigan St.
Ohio St		Penn St.			Michigan	Michigan St.
Wisconsin	Iowa				Michigan
Michigan		Penn St.	Ohio St.	Wisconsin		Michigan St.
Michigan St		Penn St.	Ohio St.

Big-12 (3 ranked teams)

The Big-12 increased its number of ranked teams to three as undefeated Kansas State is now ranked #25. Oklahoma won, but manged to drop from #3 to #4 . Oklahoma plays #25 Kansas State on the 2nd of October and #14 Iowa State on November 20.

Pac-12 (2 ranked teams)

The Pac-12 is now down to two ranked teams: Oregon at #3, and UCLA at #24. Oregon is the only undefeated Pac-12 team. Oregon and UCLA meet on October 23rd.

Meanwhile, BYU has beaten three Pac-12 South teams: Arizona (24-18), Utah (26-17) and Arizona State (27-17). BYU is scheduled to play Washington State and USC.

SEC (7 ranked teams)

Not a lot of change from last week. Florida lost to Alabama, 29-31, but stayed at #11. The only currently ranked team Florida has to play in the regular season is Georgia, which gives Florida a good chance to stay ranked (and, if Florida can beat Georgia, a chance to move up and play for the SEC title).

The SEC has the two top ranked teams, three of the top eight, four of the top 12 and six of the top 16. Many of these teams will be playing each other in the upcoming weeks.

non-Power-5 (5 ranked teams)

#8 Cincinnati is the highest ranked non-Power-5 team and Cincinnati and #12 Notre Dame meet on October 2nd. BYU, Coastal Carolina and Fresno State have chances for a New Year's Six Bowl Game.

Undefeated FCS Teams After Week 4
Ranking	Team	Record	Conference
#1	Alablama	4-0	SEC
#2	Georgia	4-0	SEC
#3	Oregon	4-0	Pac 12
#4	Penn State	4-0	Big 10
#5	Iowa	4-0	Big 10
#6	Oklahoma	4-0	Big 12
#7	Cincinnati	3-0	AAC
#8	Arkansas	4-0	SEC
#9	Notre Dame	4-0	Independent
#12	Mississippi	3-0	SEC
#13	BYU	4-0	Independent
#14	Michigan	4-0	Big 10
#16	Coastal Carolina	4-0	Sun Belt
#17	Michigan State	4-0	Big 10
#19	Oklahoma State	4-0	Big 12
#21	Baylor	4-0	Big 12
#24	Wake Forest	4-0	ACC
	Maryland	4-0	Big 10
	San Diego State	4-0	Mountain West
	Boston College	4-0	ACC
	SMU	4-0	AAC
	Kentucky	4-0	SEC
	UTSA	4-0	CUSA
tie	Army	4-0	Independent
tie	Wyoming	4-0	Mountain West
tie	South Alabama	3-0	Sun Belt

Unranked teams are ordered by their "Others Receiving Votes" points score.

ACC (3 ranked teams)

Clemson and North Carolina, both of last week's ranked ACC teams, lost. The top ranked ACC team is now #23, North Carolina State. The two remaining undefeated ACC teams, Wake Forest and Boston College, are scheduled to play both Clemson and each other.
The ACC is likely out of contention for a playoff spot.

Big 10 (5 ranked teams)

Wisconsin lost for the second time this year, this week to Notre Dame, and is no longer ranked. Maryland is the only undefeated Big 10 team that is not ranked in the top 25.

Big 12 (3 ranked teams)

Oklahoma barely beat West Virgina, but did win. Iowa State lost for the second time this year and Kansas State, which made the top-25 list last week, lost. All three undefeated Big 12 teams are ranked. Each of these three teams is scheduled to play the other two.

SEC (7 ranked teams)

All ranked SEC teams won, except for Texas A&M, which was playing ranked SEC team Arkansas. The SEC now has seven teams ranked in the top-25. Three of those seven teams have one loss.

Pac 12 (2 ranked teams)

Oregon and UCLA both won. Arizona State and Orgeon State were among the "Others Receiving Votes". Pac 12 hopes are pretty much riding on Oregon.

Undefeated FCS Teams After Week 5
Ranking	Team	Record	Conference
#1	Alablama	5-0	SEC
#2	Georgia	5-0	SEC
#3	Iowa	5-0	Big 10
#4	Penn State	5-0	Big 10
#5	Cincinnati	4-0	AAC
#6	Oklahoma	5-0	Big 12
#9	Michigan	5-0	Big 10
#10	BYU	5-0	Independent
#11	Michigan State	5-0	Big 10
#12	Oklahoma State	5-0	Big 12
#15	Coastal Carolina	5-0	Sun Belt
#16	Kentucky	5-0	SEC
#19	Wake Forest	5-0	ACC
#24	SMU	5-0	AAC
#25	San Diego State	4-0	Mountain West
	UTSA	5-0	CUSA
	Wyoming	4-0	Mountain West

Unranked teams are ordered by their "Others Receiving Votes" points score.

ACC (2 ranked teams)

Clemson won, but dropped from #25 to the highest "Others Receiving Votes" team — effectively #26.
Wake Forest is 5-0, but the wins have come against:

1-4 Old Dominion (Conference USA)
2-3 Norkfolk (FCS)
1-4 Florida State (ACC)
3-2 Virginia (ACC)
3-2 Louisville (ACC)

Still to be played are:

4-1 North Carolina State
3-2 Clemson, and
4-1 Boston College

Big 10 (5 ranked teams)

All five ranked Big 10 teams are in the top 11.
#3 Iowa and #4 Penn State play each other this upcoming week, which, in theory, opens the door for Cincinnati to be ranked in the top four.

Big 12 (3 ranked teams)

Oklahoma won, is still undefeated, and dropped another position in the top-25 rankings. Oklahoma plays Texas this week. A win over Texas might move Oklahoma above Cincinnati in the rankings.

SEC (7 ranked teams)

The SEC still has seven ranked teams, just as it did last week, but the highly ranked SEC teams not named Alabama and Georgia lost (to other SEC teams) so the conference has only two teams in the top ten and three teams in the top 15.
Florida is the only ranked team in the country with two losses.
The SEC sending two teams to the playoffs this season is looking possible, especially if undefeated Alabama and Georgia meet in the SEC championship game.

Pac 12 (2 ranked teams)

Still two ranked teams, but a different two. Oregon lost and fell to #12 while UCLA lost and fell out of the top 25.
The Pac-12 now needs Oregon to win out to have a hope of sending a team to the playoffs.

Others (6 ranked teams)

Cincinnati beat Notre Dame and moved up to #5. Since #3 Iowa and #4 Penn St. play each other next week, Cincinnati has a good chance to move up to #4 next week (assuming Cincinnati doesn't lose, of course) if Oklahoma continues to play listless football.
Even better for Cincinnati is that SMU won and is now ranked. SMU can move up over the next six weeks if it beats Houston, Memphis and UCF. Cincinnati and SMU are schduled to play each other at the end of November so a good SMU team might contribute another quality win to Cincinnati's season. This might be enough for Cincinnati to be considered for a playoff spot.

Undefeated FCS Teams After Week 6
Ranking	Team	Record	Conference
#1	Georgia	6-0	SEC
#2	Iowa	6-0	Big 10
#3	Cincinnati	5-0	AAC
#4	Oklahoma	6-0	Big 12
#8	Michigan	6-0	Big 10
#10	Michigan State	6-0	Big 10
#11	Kentucky	6-0	SEC
#12	Oklahoma State	5-0	Big 12
#15	Coastal Carolina	6-0	Sun Belt
#16	Wake Forest	6-0	ACC
#23	SMU	6-0	AAC
#24	San Diego State	5-0	Mountain West
	UTSA	6-0	CUSA

ACC (2 ranked teams)

Wake Forest is now 6-0. An undefeated Wake Forest as ACC champion has a good chance of making the playoffs. Wake Forest's remaing games are:

Army
Duke
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Clemson
Boston College

The back half of Wake Forest's schedule is tougher than the front half.

Clemson did not play and is still unranked.

Big 10 (5 ranked teams)

Iowa beat Penn St. 23-20. Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State won.

The Big 10 has five ranked teams and all five are ranked in the top 10.

Iowa's six remaing games include only two teams with winning records — Purdue and Minnesotta, both at 3-2. Iowa is very likely the Big 10 East champion.

The four Big 10 West contenders — Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Michigan — still have to play each other. All but Penn State are undefeated.

Ranked Opponents Remaining
Team
Iowa	(none)
Penn St			Ohio St.	Michigan	Michigan St.
Ohio St		Penn St.		Michigan	Michigan St.
Michigan		Penn St.	Ohio St.		Michigan St.
Michigan St		Penn St.	Ohio St.	Michigan

Big 12 (3 ranked teams)

Oklahoma won ugly again, this week vs. Texas, but is still undefeated at 6-0. Oklahoma moved up to #4 this week.

Oklahoma plays Oklahoma State in late November.

SEC (7 ranked teams)

Alabama lost, but still controls its own destiny. A one loss SEC champion goes to the playoffs.

However, Alabama is giving up 22 points per game compared to Georgia's 5.5 points per game. Georgia's defense has given up only two touchdowns in six games, one each to South Carolina and Auburn.

Pac 12 (2 ranked teams)

Oregon had the week off. ASU won.

Others (6 ranked teams)

BYU lost and is likely out of contention for a New Year's Six bowl game.

Cincinnati won and moved up to #3. SMU won and moved up to #23 so Cincinnati still has one more ranked opponent to play.

Coastal Carolina won.

Undefeated FCS Teams After Week 7
Ranking	Team	Record	Conference
#1	Georgia	7-0	SEC
#2	Cincinnati	6-0	AAC
#3	Oklahoma	7-0	Big 12
#6	Michigan	6-0	Big 10
#8	Oklahoma State	6-0	Big 12
#9	Michigan State	7-0	Big 10
#14	Coastal Carolina	6-0	Sun Belt
#16	Wake Forest	6-0	ACC
#21	SMU	6-0	AAC
#22	San Diego State	6-0	Mountain West
#24	UTSA	7-0	CUSA

ACC (3 ranked teams)

Clemson is still unranked. Even when winning, Clemson doesn't seem to impress (e.g. beating Syracuse 17-14). Clemson plays Pittsburgh next week. A win, even an ugly win, probably moves Clemson back into the top-25. Clemson also plays Wake Forest later on in the season.

Big 10 (6 ranked teams)

One more ranked team than last week, but Iowa lost and the Big-10 no longer has any teams in the top 4 (still 4 teams in the top-10, however). Only Michigan and Michigan State remain undefeated in the Big-10.

The four ranked Big-10 West teams begin playing each other on October 30.

Big 12 (3 ranked teams)

Baylor replaced Texas in the top-25 and the Big-12 still has three ranked teams.

SEC (6 ranked teams)

Florida and Arkansas dropped out of the top-25 and Auburn rejoined.

Pac 12 (1 ranked teams)

The Pac-12 is down to one ranked team: Oregon.

Pac-12 Top Teams
Team	Record	Ranked Wins	Losses
Oregon	5-1	Ohio State	Stanford
Utah	4-2		San Diego State, BYU
Arizona State	5-2		Utah, BYU
UCLA	5-2		Arizona State, Fresno State
Oregon State	4-2		Purdue, Washington State
Washington State	4-3		Utah, USC, Utah State.
USC	3-3		Utah, Stanford, Oregon State
Stanford	3-4	Oregon	Kansas State, UCLA, Arizona State, Washington State
Colorado	2-4		Texas A&M, Minnesota, Arizona State, USC
Washington	2-4		Michigan, UCLA, Oregon State, Montana (FCS)

As of this week, the conference has one ranked win against another conference. It also has a loss against and FCS team.

Others (6 ranked teams)

Cincinnati is now ranked #2 and still has a regular season game scheduled against SMU.

UTSA is now ranked and now all undefeated D-1 FBS teams are ranked in the top-25.

BYU lost and is no longer ranked.

Undefeated FCS Teams After Week 8
Ranking	Team	Record	Conference
#1	Georgia	7-0	SEC
#2	Cincinnati	7-0	AAC
#4	Oklahoma	8-0	Big 12
#6	Michigan	7-0	Big 10
#8	Michigan State	7-0	Big 10
#13	Wake Forest	7-0	ACC
#19	SMU	7-0	AAC
#21	San Diego State	7-0	Mountain West
#23	UTSA	8-0	CUSA

ACC (2 ranked teams)

Wake Forest and Pittsburgh won. North Carolina State and Clemson lost.

None of the ACC teams ranked in the pre-season poll are currently ranked.

Big 10 (5 ranked teams)

Penn State lost and now has two losses with games against Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State still to come.

Purdue followed up last week's win against Iowa with a loss to Wisconsin.

The upcoming Oct-30 weekend features:

Michigan vs Michigan State
Ohio State vs Penn State
Iowa vs Wisconsin

Big 12 (4 ranked teams)

Oklahoma State lost.

Oklahoma still has to play the three current Big-12 teams behind it in the standings: Iowa State, Baylor and Oklahoma State.

Baylor (6-1) has lost to Oklahoma State and beaten Iowa State.

Iowa State (5-2) has beaten Oklahoma State and lost to Baylor.

Oklahoma State (6-1) has beaten Baylor and lost to Iowa State.

Iowa State's second loss came in out of conference play, though, so if Oklahoma runs the tables (which requires beating three currently ranked teams) we could finish the regular season with a 3-way tie for second place like this:

Big-12 Top Teams
	Big-12
Team	Record
Oklahoma	9-0
Baylor	7-2
Oklahoma State	7-2
Iowa State	7-2

SEC (6 ranked teams)

Pac-12 (1 ranked teams)

Pac-12 Top Teams
Team	Record	Ranked Wins	Losses
Oregon	6-1	Ohio State	Stanford
Oregon State	5-2		Purdue, Washington State
Arizona State	5-2		Utah, BYU
UCLA	5-3		Arizona State, Fresno State, Oregon
Utah	4-3		San Diego State, BYU, Oregon State
Washington State	4-4		Utah, USC, Utah State, BYU
USC	3-4		Utah, Stanford, Oregon State, Notre Dame
Stanford	3-4	Oregon	Kansas State, UCLA, Arizona State, Washington State
Washington	3-4		Michigan, UCLA, Oregon State, Montana (FCS)
Colorado	2-5		Texas A&M, Minnesota, Arizona State, USC, Cal

Others (7 ranked teams)

Cincinnati and SMU won. They play each other November 20th. SMU plays Houston (6-1, loss was to Texas Tech in week one) next week.

Coastal Carolina lost.

Undefeated FCS Teams After Week 9
Ranking	Team	Record	Conference
#1	Georgia	8-0	SEC
#3	Michigan State	8-0	Big 10
#6	Cincinnati	8-0	AAC
#8	Oklahoma	9-0	Big 12
#9	Wake Forest	8-0	ACC
	UTSA	8-0	CUSA

ACC (3 ranked teams)

All playoff hopes are pretty much riding on Wake Forest now. Every other ACC team has at least two losses.

Big 10 (6 ranked teams)

A few weeks ago a good question was, "Who will face Iowa in the Big 10 championship game?"

Iowa (3-2 in Big 10 play) is now effectively in 4th place in the Big 10 West, behind Minnesota (4-1) and Purdue (3-2) and Wisconsin (3-2) because Iowa loses any tie-break to Purdue and Wisconsin.

Michigan State and Ohio State still have to play each other.

Jim Harbaugh

Jim Harbaugh has been the Michigan football head coach since the 2015 season.

Jim Harbaugh Coached Seasons at Michigan
Season	Weekly Results													Record		Losses	AP
														All	B10
2015	L	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	10-3	7-2	Utah, Michigan St., Ohio St.	12
2016	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	L	L	10-3	7-2	Iowa, Florida St., Ohio St.	10
2017	W	W	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	L	L	L	8-5	5-4	Michigan St. Penn St. Wisconsin, Ohio St., S. Carolina
2018	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	L	10-3	8-1	Notre Dame, Florida, Ohio St.	14
2019	W	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	L	L	9-4	6-3	Alabama, Wisconsin, Penn St., Ohio St.	18
2020				W	L	L	L	W	L	-	-	-		2-4	2-4	Michigan St., Indiana, Penn St. Wisconsin
2021	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	L								Michigan St.

Excluding the cancelled then uncancelled then Covid-shortened 2020 season a typical Jim Harbaugh season at Michigan looks like this:

10-3 or 9-4 overall and 7-2 in Big-10 play
Losing to Ohio State (0-5)
Losing to one or two of: Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin (six losses to those teams from 2015-2019)
Not playing for the Big-10 championship
Losing a bowl game to end the season (1-4 in bowl games)
Finishing the season ranked between 10 and 20 (four years out of five)

Big 12 (3 ranked teams)

Iowa State dropped out of the top-25, but Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor continue to be ranked. Oklahoma still has to play Oklahoma State and Baylor. Oklahoma State and Baylor have already played each other. Baylor lost.

SEC (7 ranked team)

The CFP committee is more impressed with the SEC than the AP sports writers. Still, of the seven ranked teams only Georgia and Kentucky do not have remaining regular season games against currently ranked teams:

	Team	Remaining Games
#1	Georgia	Missouri, Tennessee, Charleston Southern (FCS), Georgia Tech
#2	Alabama	LSU, New Mexico State, Arkansas, Auburn
#13	Auburn	Texas A&M, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Alabama
#14	Texas A&M	Auburn, Mississippi, Prarie View (FCS), LSU
#16	Mississippi	Arkansas, Auburn, Tennessee State (FCS), Mississippi State
#17	Mississippi State	Arkansas, Auburn, Tennessee State, Mississipi
#18	Kentucky	Tennessee, Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, Louisville

If a one-loss Alabama beats a 12-0 Georgia in the SEC championship, the SEC is likely to send two teams to the playoffs.

Pac-12 (1 ranked team)

With respect to college playoffs, the ACC is Wake Forest of bust. The Pac-12 is Oregon or bust.

Pac-12 Top Teams
Team	Record	Ranked Wins	Losses
Oregon	7-1	Ohio State, Fresno State	Stanford
Utah	5-3		San Diego State, BYU, Oregon State
Oregon State	5-3		Purdue, Washington State, Cal
Arizona State	5-3		Utah, BYU, Washington State
UCLA	5-4		Arizona State, Fresno State, Utah
Washington State	5-4		Utah, USC, Utah State, BYU
USC	4-4		Utah, Stanford, Oregon State, Notre Dame
Washington	4-4		Michigan, UCLA, Oregon State, Montana (FCS)

Utah received 11 votes in the AP poll and can be thought of as about 34th. No other Pac-12 team received votes.

Others (5 ranked teams)

Cincinnati won, but SMU lost. SMU plays Houston (6-1, loss was to Texas Tech in week one) next week. Cincinnati would benefit from playing a ranked SMU team as the CFP committee is clearly less impressed with Cincinnati's strength of schedule than the AP writers.

UTSA, Houston, SMU, Louisiana and Coastal Carolina are ranked in the AP poll but not the CFP rankings.

Undefeated FCS Teams After Week 10
Ranking	Team	Record	Conference
#1	Georgia	9-0	SEC
#5	Cincinnati	9-0	AAC
#8	Oklahoma	9-0	Big 12
#23	UTSA	9-0	CUSA

ACC (3 ranked teams)

Wake Forest lost. Barring a miracle, the ACC isn't sending a team to the playoffs.

Big 10 (6 ranked teams)

Michigan State lost. Any of Ohio State (#4), Michigan (#6) or Michigan State (#7) can realistically represent the Big 10 East.

In the West, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue and Iowa are all 4-2 in Big-10 play. Against each other (which would matter for tie-break) the results are:

2-0 Wisconsin (#18) has beaten Purdue and Iowa and plays Minnesota at the end of the season.
1-0 Minnesota has beaten Purdue and still has to play Iowa and Wisconsin
1-2 Purdue (#19) has lost to Wisconsin and Minnesota and beat Iowa.
0-2 Iowa (#20) has lost to Wisconsin and Purdue and still has to play Minnesota

Big 12 (3 ranked teams)

Baylor lost, so playoff hopes are realistically down to Oklahoma (#8) and Oklahoma State (#10).

SEC (6 ranked team)

The SEC has the highest ranked undefeated team: Georgia (#1).
And the highest ranked 1-loss team: Alabama (#2).
And the highest ranked 2-loss team: Texas A&M (#11).
And the highest ranked 3-loss team: Auburn (#17).

Kentucky is the only unranked 6-3 team in the SEC. Kentucky finishes the regular season against Vanderbilt, New Mexico State and Louisville.

The CFP committee thinks highly of SEC football.

It is worth remember that last year, due to Covid, most conferences played only within themselves. The SEC sent eight teams to bowl games — four of them ranked in the top-25 and four of them unranked. Every SEC team played an opponent ranked in the top-25 going into the bowl.

The SEC went 6-2 in these bowl games and the unranked SEC teams went 3-1 against their ranked opponents. Three of the four unranked SEC teams had losing records within the SEC. All three of these teams beat their ranked opponent.

Pac-12 (2 ranked teams)

Pac-12 Top Teams
Team	Record	Ranked Wins	Losses
Oregon	8-1	Ohio State	Stanford
Utah	6-3		San Diego State, BYU, Oregon State
Arizona State	6-3		Utah, BYU, Washington State
Oregon State	5-4		Purdue, Washington State, Cal, Colorado
UCLA	5-4		Arizona State, Fresno State, Oregon, Utah
Washington State	5-4		Utah, USC, Utah State, BYU

Utah still has to play Oregon and Arizona State. There is a good chance that the Pac-12 finishes the season with only one team losing fewer than four games.

Others (5 ranked teams)

A huge part of Cincinnati's problem is that while it beat Notre Dame, it has a relatively weak schedule. And with a relatively weak schedule it isn't consistently dominating opponents. Beating Navy (2-7) by seven points and beating Tulsa (3-6) by eight points is a poor way to make a claim to being one of the best four teams in the country. Cincinnati beat Indiana 38-24, but Ohio State beat Indiana 54-7. Ohio State beat Tulsa by 19 points rather than by eight.

One could make a case that Cincinnati deserves to be ranked higher than Oregon as Oregon has a loss and also has a weak schedule other than Ohio State. But Oregon did beat Ohio State and also has a win against Fresno State (ranked by the CFP committee last week).

It seems unlikely that the Big-10 finishes with teams ranked #4, #6 and #7 as Ohio State (#4) has remaining games against Michigan (#6) and Michigan State (#7). Still, one of these teams likely finished the Big-10 regular season ranked higher than Cincinnati. If that team wins the Big-10 conference championship, then that team will certainly be ranked higher than Cincinnati.

If Oklahoma or Oklahoma State wins out, then that team will almost certainly leapfrog Cincinnati in the rankings.

So Cincinnati needs to win out and then needs help.

Undefeated FCS Teams After Week 11
Ranking	Team	Record	Conference
#1	Georgia	10-0	SEC
#5	Cincinnati	10-0	AAC
#22	UTSA	10-0	CUSA

ACC (3 ranked teams)

Big 10 (5 ranked teams)

Purdue fell out of the top-25. Wisconsin has the edge in winning the West.

Big 12 (3 ranked teams)

Oklahoma lost to Baylor.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State play each other in two weeks. Then almost certainly two of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor play each other in the Big-12 championship game.

The winner will need help to make the college football playoffs.

SEC (6 ranked team)

Auburn dropped out of the top-25, but Mississippi State joined so the SEC still has six ranked teams.

The SEC has the only ranked 4-loss team.

The SEC West has five of the six ranked SEC teams. The SEC West has as many ranked teams as the Big-10, which is the conference with the next most ranked teams.

Pac-12 (2 ranked teams)

Others (6 ranked teams)

Good news for Cincinnati is that Houston is now ranked. They likely meet in the AAC championship and another win against a ranked opponent would help Cincinnati's case for making the playoffs.

Cincinnati still needs to finish the season undefeated, of course.

Playoff Picture

It appears that Ohio State and Georgia are legitimate playoff teams and every other team is a tier below those two. A good guess for the playoff is those two teams and two of:

Alabama
an undefeated Cincinnati
a one loss Oklahoma or Oklahoma State (but can't be both)
a one loss Notre Dame

Michigan replaces Ohio State if Michigan beats Ohio State next week.

If Georgia beats Alabama solidly in the SEC championship then Alabama is likely eliminated. Alabama beating Georgia likely sends two SEC teams. Alabama losing by only a field goal may be enough for Alabama to get in depending on how the other candidate teams fare.

Baylor, Mississippi and every team currently ranked 11th or worse are effectively eliminated. One consequence of this is that the ACC and the Pac-12 won't be sending a team to the playoffs. Teams that have a realistic chance to play in a conference championship are bolded.

Team	Record	Comment
Georgia	11-0	Will meet Alabama for the SEC Championship
Ohio State	10-1	Plays Michigan next week.
Alabama	10-1	Will meet Georgia for the SEC Championship
Cincinnati	11-0	Cincinnati needs to win out.
Michigan	10-1	Plays Ohio State next week.
Notre Dame	10-1	Notre Dame has no conference championship, so needs help — probably needs Cincinnati to lose.
Oklahoma State	10-1	Plays Oklahoma next week.
Baylor	9-2	Likely eliminated: Even winning the Big-12 is unlikely to be enough as Baylor has two losses.
Mississippi	9-2	Likely eliminated: Two losses and can't make the SEC championship game.
Oklahoma	10-1	Plays Oklahoma State next week.

Oregon	9-2	Two losses and the Pac-12 looks terrible this year.
Michigan State	9-2	Blown out by Ohio State and can't play in Big-10 championship.
BYU	9-2	BYU has no conference championship.
Wisconsin	8-3
Texas A&M	8-3
Iowa	8-3
Pittsurgh	9-2	Two losses and the ACC looks terrible this year.

Undefeated FCS Teams After Week 12
Ranking	Team	Record	Conference
#1	Georgia	10-0	SEC
#4	Cincinnati	10-0	AAC
#22	UTSA	10-0	CUSA

ACC (4 ranked teams)

The highest ranked ACC team is #17 Pittsburgh (9-2). The ACC isn't sending a team to the playoffs.

Big 10 (5 ranked teams)

If Michigan or Ohio State win out, then they go to the playoffs. A Big-10 West team such as Wisconsin winning the Big-10 championship would make it unlikely for the Big-10 to send a team to the playoffs.

Big 12 (3 ranked teams)

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are still in the playoff hunt if they win out. Baylor has a chance, but not a good one, if Baylor wins the Big-12 championship.

SEC (5 ranked team)

Without a miracle, the SEC champion is going to the playoffs. If Alabama plays well against Georgia in the championship then the SEC may send two teams, especially if the Big-12 stumbles or Cincinnati loses a game.

Pac-12 (2 ranked teams)

Utah beat Oregon and the Pac-12 isn't sending a team to the playoffs.

Pac-12 Top Teams
Team	Record	Ranked Wins	Losses
Oregon	9-2	Ohio State	Stanford, Utah
Utah	8-3	Oregon	San Diego State, BYU, Oregon State
Arizona State	7-4		Utah, BYU, Washington State, Oregon State
Oregon State	7-4		Purdue, Washington State, Cal, Colorado
UCLA	7-4		Arizona State, Fresno State, Oregon, Utah

Playoff Picture

Roughly six teams have reasonable chances of making the playoffs.

Team	Record	Comment
Georgia	12-0	Will meet Alabama for the SEC Championship
Michigan	11-1	Plays Iowa for the Big-10 Championship
Alabama	11-1	Will meet Georgia for the SEC Championship
Cincinnati	12-0	Meets Houston in AAC Championship.
Oklahoma State	11-1	Meets Baylor in the Big-12 Championship.
Notre Dame	11-1	No conference championship.

Ohio State	10-2
Mississippi	10-2
Baylor	10-2	Meets Oklahoma State in Big-12 Championship.
Oregon	10-2
Michigan State	10-2
BYU	10-2	No conference championship.
Iowa	9-3
Oklahoma	10-2

A game results summary of the top teams:

Rank	Team		Top-25 Wins	All Losses
1	Georgia	12-0	#20 Clemson (9-3) #22 Arkansas (8-4) #23 Kentucky (9-3)
2	Michigan	11-1	#7 Ohio State (10-2)	#11 Michigan State (10-2)
3	Alabama	11-1	#8 Mississippi (10-2) #22 Arkansas (8-4)	#25 Texas A&M (8-4)
4	Cincinnati	12-0	#6 Notre Dame (11-1)
5	Oklahoma State	11-1	#9 Baylor (10-2) #14 Oklahoma (10-2)	Iowa State (7-5)
6	Notre Dame	11-1		#4 Cincinnati (12-0)
7	Ohio State	10-2	#11 Michigan State (10-2)	#2 Michigan (11-1) #10 Oregon (10-2)
8	Mississippi	10-2	#22 Arkansas (8-4) #25 Texas A&M (8-4)	#3 Alabama (11-1) Auburn (6-6)
9	Baylor	10-2	#12 BYU (10-2) #14 Oklahoma (10-2)	#5 Oklahoma State (10-2) TCU (5-7)
10	Oregon	10-2	#7 Ohio State (10-2)	#17 Utah (10-2) Stanford (3-9)
11	Michigan State	10-2	#2 Michigan (11-1)	#7 Ohio State (10-2) Purdue (8-4)

Baylor beating Oklahoma State might get Baylor into the playoffs over even a 13-0 Cincinnati — Baylor will then have three wins against currently ranked teams. What works against Baylor is the loss to 5-7 TCU.

But Oklahoma State beating Baylor is a more likely scenario for a team to jump over Cincinnati even if Cincinnati wins. Oklahoma State will then have three wins against currently ranked teams (two of those wins versus Baylor) as well as being the Big-12 conference champion and having only one loss. If Cincinnati wins, then Houston almost certainly falls out of the CFP top-25 so Cincinnati will have only one win against a ranked opponent (Notre Dame).

Are three wins against ranked opponents combined with one loss (to a 7-5) team better than one win against a ranked opponent, but going 13-0? Tough to tell.

A game results summary of the top teams:

Rank	Team		Top-25 Wins	All Losses
1	Alabama	12-1	#3 Georgia (12-1) #8 Mississippi (10-2) #21 Arkansas (8-4)	#25 Texas A&M (8-4)
2	Michigan	12-1	#6 Ohio State (10-2) #15 Iowa (10-3)	#10 Michigan State (10-2)
3	Georgia	12-1	#19 Clemson (9-3) #21 Arkansas (8-4) #22 Kentucky (9-3)	#1 Alabama (12-1)
4	Cincinnati	13-0	#6 Notre Dame (11-1) #20 Houston (11-2)
5	Notre Dame	11-1		#4 Cincinnati (12-0)
6	Ohio State	10-2	#10 Michigan State (10-2)	#2 Michigan (12-1) #14 Oregon (10-3)
7	Baylor	11-2	#9 Oklahoma State (11-2) #13 BYU (10-2) #16 Oklahoma (10-2)	#9 Oklahoma State (11-2) TCU (5-7)
8	Mississippi	10-2	#21 Arkansas (8-4) #25 Texas A&M (8-4)	#1 Alabama (12-1) Auburn (6-6)
9	Oklahoma State	11-2	#7 Baylor (12-2) #16 Oklahoma (10-2)	#7 Baylor (11-2) Iowa State (7-5)
10	Michigan State	10-2	#2 Michigan (12-1)	#6 Ohio State (10-2) Purdue (8-4)

Notre Dame seems very highly ranked (#5) with no wins against top-25 teams and a loss to Cincinnati.
Baylor seems to have a case for being ranked higher than Ohio State. The loss to TCU hurts. Still, only one position in the rankings and it doesn't change the bowl games that they go to (Rose Bowl for Ohio State vs the Pac-12 champion Utah; Sugar bowl for Baylor vs the highest available SEC team, Mississippi).

Some details on the final AP rankings:

Rank	Team		Top-25 Wins	All Losses
1	Georgia	14-1	#2 Alabama (13-2) #3 Michigan (12-2) #14 Clemson (10-3) #18 Kentucky (10-3) #21 Arkansas (9-4)	#2 Alabama (13-2)
2	Alabama	13-2	#1 Georgia (14-1) #4 Cincinnati (13-1) #11 Mississippi (10-3) #21 Arkansas (9-4)	#1 Georgia (14-1) Texas A&M (8-4)
3	Michigan	12-2	#6 Ohio State (11-2) #23 Iowa (10-4)	#1 Georgia (14-1) #9 Michigan State (11-2)
4	Cincinnati	13-1	#8 Notre Dame (11-2) #17 Houston (12-2)	#2 Alabama (13-2)
5	Baylor	12-2	#7 Oklahoma State (12-2) #10 Oklahoma (11-2) #11 Mississippi (10-3) #19 BYU (10-3)	#7 Oklahoma State (12-2) TCU (5-7)
6	Ohio State	11-2	#9 Michigan State (11-2) #12 Utah (10-4)	#3 Michigan (12-2) #22 Oregon (10-4)
7	Oklahoma State	12-2	#5 Baylor (12-2) #8 Notre Dame (12-2) #16 Oklahoma (10-2)	#5 Baylor (12-2) Iowa State (7-5)
8	Notre Dame	11-2		#4 Cincinnati (13-1) #7 Oklahoma State (12-2)
9	Michigan State	11-2	#3 Michigan (12-2) #13 Pittsburgh (10-3)	#6 Ohio State (11-2) Purdue (9-4)
10	Oklahoma	11-2	#23 Oregon (10-4)	#5 Baylor (12-2) #7 Oklahoma State (12-2)
11	Mississippi	10-3	#21 Arkansas (9-4)	#2 Alabama (13-2) #5 Baylor (12-2) Auburn (6-6)
12	Utah	10-4	#23 Oregon (10-4) #23 Oregon (10-4)	#6 Ohio State (11-2) #19 BYU (10-3) #25 San Diego State (12-2) Oregon State (7-6)
13	Pittsburgh	11-3	#14 Clemson (10-3) #15 Wake Forest (11-3)	#9 Michigan State (11-2) Western Michigan (8-5) Miami (7-5)
14	Clemson	10-3	#15 Wake Forest (11-3)	#1 Georgia (14-1) #13 Pittsburgh (11-3) #20 NC State (9-3)
15	Wake Forest	11-3	#20 NC State (9-3)	#13 Pittsburgh (13-3) #14 Clemson (10-3) North Carolina (6-7)
16	Louisiana	13-1		Texas (6-7)
17	Houston	12-2		#4 Cincinnati (13-1) Texas Tech (7-6)
18	Kentucky	10-3	#23 Iowa (10-4)	#1 Georgia (14-1) Tennessee (7-6) Mississippi State (7-6)
19	BYU	10-3	#12 Utah (10-4) #24 Utah State (11-3)	#5 Baylor (12-2) UAB (9-4) Boise State (7-5)
20	North Carolina State	9-3	#14 Clemson (10-3)	#15 Wake Forest (11-3) Miami (7-5) Mississippi State (7-6)
21	Arkansas	9-4		#1 Georgia (14-1) #2 Alabama (13-2) #11 Mississippi (10-3) Auburn (6-7)
22	Oregon	10-4	#6 Ohio State (11-2)	#11 Utah (10-4) #11 Utah (10-4) #10 Oklahoma (11-2) Stanford (3-9)
23	Iowa	10-4		#3 Michigan (12-2) #18 Kentucky (10-3) Wisconsin (9-4) Purdue (9-4)
24	Utah State	11-3	#25 San Diego State (12-2)	#19 BYU (10-3) Boise State (7-5) Wyoming (7-6)
25	San Diego State	12-2	#11 Utah (10-4)	#24 Utah State (11-3) Fresno State (10-3)
	Texas A&M	8-4	#2 Alabama (13-2)	#11 Mississippi (10-3) #21 Arkansas (9-4) Mississippi State (7-6) LSU (6-7)
	Wisconsin	9-4	#23 Iowa (10-4)	#3 Michigan (12-2) #8 Notre Dame (11-2) Minnesota (9-4) Penn State (7-6)
	Minnesota	9-4		#6 Ohio State (12-2) #23 Iowa (10-4) Illinois (5-7) Bowling Green (4-8)
	Purdue	9-4	#9 Michigan State (11-2) #23 Iowa (10-4)	#6 Ohio State (12-2) #8 Notre Dame (11-2) Wisconsin (9-4) Minnesota (9-4)
	UTSA	12-2		#25 SDSU (12-2) North Texas (6-6)

The highest ranked team with no wins against top-25 competition is #8 Notre Dame.
#16 Louisiana's true strength is a bit of a mystery. The team finished 13-1, but played no ranked teams at all.
#12 Utah over #14 Clemson seems a bit odd. Clemson has a better win and better losses. Utah does have two wins over top-25 opponents, but they are both against the same opponenet. Still, two ranking slots at this place in the rankings is going to be pretty close.

Week:

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent. No games played yet.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent. No games were played in Week 1, so this is the first rankings after play began.

Both the Big 10 and Pac-12 cancelled their seasons, so teams from these two conferences are not eligible for ranking.

The ACC and Big-12 began their season this week. The SEC is still expecting a season, but play has not yet begun.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent. The Big 10 has un-cancelled its season, so Big 10 teams will be eligible for rankings next week. The Pac-12 still has no plans for a 2020 football schedule.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent. Well.

The Big 10 and Pac 12 have both un-cancelled their seasons, so schools in both conferences are eligible to be ranked.

The late start and shortened schedules have hurt both conferences, however.

Pac 12

The preseason AP poll had three Pac 12 teams ranked (#9 Oregon, #17 USC and #22 Utah). This week the Pac 12 has one team ranked: #14 Oregon. USC, Utah and Washington do appear in the "Others receiving votes" list at #29, #35 and #39 respectively. With a 6+1 schedule and no out of conference games it is difficult to see how a Pac 12 team makes the playoffs. Would even a 7-0 Oregon be ranked in the top 4?

The abbreviated Pac 12 schedule will have each team play all the teams in their division (five games), one crossover game against an opponent in the other division and then a final game seeded by division standings. The top teams in each division will thus play for the Pac 12 championship and the other ten teams will play a game on the same weekend.

Oregon has the best chance to be ranked in the top four at the end of the season and to have any hope must finish undefeated. So, best case for Oregon is that they beat the following teams:

Cal (2019: 8-5)
Oregon State (2019: 5-7)
Stanford (2019: 4-8)
Washington (2019: 8-5)
Washington State (2019: 6-7)
USC (2019: 8-5)
Utah (2019: 11-3)

Each of these team must thus have at least one loss (to Oregon) and USC or Utah must have at least two losses (they play each other and one will lose; Oregon beats one in a crossover game and one in the Pac 12 championship).

Treating the Pac 12 teams receiving votes as the best teams in the Pac 12, the Pac 12 overall final standings then look like this AT BEST:

Oregon: 7-0
Pac 12 runner up (e.g. Utah or USC): 6-1
Pac 12 north runner up (e.g. Washington): 6-1
Pac 12 south runner up (e.g. Utah or USC): 4-3

or ...

Oregon: 7-0
Pac 12 runner up (e.g. Utah or USC): 6-1
Pac 12 south runner up (e.g. Utah or USC): 5-2
Pac 12 north runner up (e.g. Washington): 5-2

The problem is that if Oregon goes 7-0 it is very possible that no other Pac 12 team will be ranked. So Oregon's 7-0 will be a short season with no quality wins. The Power 5 conferences will be scheduling as follows:

Conference	Regular Season Schedule		Champion Plays
ACC	11 games,	one out of conference	12 games
Notre Dame	11 games;	Plays in the ACC for 2020
Big 12	11 games,	one out of conference	12 games
SEC	10 games,	all in conference	11 games
Big 10	8 games,	all in conference	9 games
Pac 12	6 games,	all in conference	7 games

Every other Power 5 conference champion will have played at least nine games and the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Notre Dame will have played 11+. The AAC champion may have played 11 games or more (Cincinnati and UCF have each scheduled 10 regular season games). 7-0 may not look impressive enough to beat out the #2 team in the SEC, Big 10 or both and may not be good enough to beat out a 10-1 or 11-0 AAC champion.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent. The Big 12 (grey on the left) and Pac 12 (pink on the right) stand out as Power 5 conferences that are not doing well in the rankings.

The Big 12 is doing poorly because the "better" Big 12 teams keep playing poorly.

The Pac 12 is doing poorly because it isn't playing at all.

AAC

This season probably gives the AAC the best chance they have to get a playoff slot. The Pac 12 is trying very hard with their scheduling to avoid getting one and the Big 12 is imploding. So: SEC winner, Big 10 winner, Clemson (assuming Clemson beats Notre Dame) and one more slot.

It would have been better for the AAC if UCF and Memphis hadn't already picked up losses, though.

ACC

Miami is doing well. Notre Dame is scheduled to play Clemson this season in early November.

Big 10

Still waiting to start the season.

Big 12

Oklahoma State is the only undefeated Big 12 team left ... after three weeks of football. The remaining schedule for Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Iowa State look like this:

	School	Remaining Opponents
3-0 (10)	OK State		Texas	Iowa State	Oklahoma	Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech
2-1 (22)	Texas	OK State		Iowa State	Oklahoma	Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia
2-1 (24)	Iowa State	OK State	Texas			Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, West Virginia
1-2	Oklahoma	OK State	Texas			Baylor, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

The greyed squares show the remaining games the four listed teams play against each other. It is important to the Big 12 that the wins in these games not be split evenly between the four teams.

PAC 12

The Pac 12 released its schedule. Cleverly, to make up for the short season (six regular season games) and the current Pac 12 reputation as a weak conference, the top three teams avoid playing each other in their crossover game. Thus ensuring that the potential Pac 12 champion not only have fewer wins than any other Power 5 champion, but likely a weaker schedule, too!

The three Pac 12 teams ranked in the AP preseason poll:

Oregon plays UCLA (4-8 last year; unranked in the 2020 AP preseason poll).
USC plays Washington State (6-7 last year; unranked in the 2020 AP preseason poll).
Utah plays Oregon State (5-7 last year; unranked in the 2020 AP preseason poll).

It is as if the Pac 12 scheduling committee wants to avoid any chance for the Pac 12 to send a team to the playoffs.

SEC

Not much to say. Alabama, Georgia and Florida are ranked #2, #3 and #4.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent.

AAC

Cincinnati is ranked #8, but ... Clemson and Notre Dame still must play each other. North Carolina is scheduled to play Notre Dame, so Notre Dame, Clemson and North Carolina have two losses to divvy up amongst each other. Alabama and Georgia play each other next week (and, possibly, again for the SEC championship). So if Cincinnati keeps winning Cincinnati should move up in the rankings.

If Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 with no more than 1 loss, then Oklahoma State is positioned wll for a playoff slot. But Oklahoma State still must play Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa State and Kansas State.

Cincinnati is well positioned if Cincinnati goes undefeated. Maybe even if Cincinnati loses only one game. Maybe.

ACC

Clemson still needs to play Notre Dame.
Notre Dame still needs to play Clemson and North Carolina.
North Carolina still needs to play Notre Dame and Miami (but not Clemson).
Miami has lost to Clemson, but still gets to play North Carolina.

Big 10

Still no games until late October.

Big 12

The Big 12 hopes are now mostly riding on Oklahoma State. And Urban Meyer thinks the Big 12 is out of the playoff hunt.

From 247sports:

For former head coach and current analyst Urban Meyer, the Big 12 is done and won’t make the playoff after witnessing the first few games. For the former coach, there’s only a few teams that can fight for the fourth and final spot.

Assuming Clemson, Ohio State and the SEC winner get in, Meyer said it’s going to be a battle for the final spot. He explained on Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff.

“It's almost a street fight for that fourth position,” Meyer said. “The last few years the Big 12 had Oklahoma. In my opinion the Big 12 is done. So who does that open the doors for? A one loss Notre Dame because they have to play Clemson, and a one loss Penn state (team) because they have to play Ohio State. Those are two excellent football teams. If I was the coach of those teams I'd say we have a shot now. That spot is going to be open now or a two loss SEC school. You have Alabama, Georgia, Florida....that seems to be the next level of the SEC. One team is going to win it but that other team is going to have two losses. In my opinion that's going to be probably the (remaining) best team to get in the playoff.

“All due respect to Oklahoma. You’re talking about Alabama, Florida, Georgia. You’re talking about Penn State and Notre Dame. Those are teams with high level talent.”

https://247sports.com/Article/Urban-Meyer-Big-12-College-football-playoff-done-Oklahoma-Texas-Iowa-State-Cowboys-152694227/

Meyer's analysis impies that the Pac 12 is out of the playoff hunt, too.

Pac 12

Still no games until early November. USC is now ranked (#25).

Also, this year the Rose Bowl is the site of one of the playoff games, so the winner of the Pac 12 either goes to one of the playoff games (if in the top 4 of the CFP committee rankings) or goes to the Las Vegas Bowl.

SEC

All the SEC teams with winning records are ranked and all six ranked teams are in the top 18. Georgia vs. Alabama this upcoming week may prove enlightening.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent.

AAC

ACC hopes are riding on Cincinnati and SMU. They play each other this upcoming week. ACC hopes will then ride on the winner.

ACC

North Carolina lost. There are still a number of games to be played between Miami, Clemson, Notre Dame and North Carolina.

Big 10

The Big 10 starts playing next week.

Big 12

Pac 12

Pac 12 play starts in a few weeks.

SEC

Four SEC teams have winning records. All four are ranked in the top 10. The other SEC teams are unranked.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent.

AAC

Cincinnati beat SMU and the ACC hopes now ride on Cincinnati. With Cincinnati ranked #7 this week, the AAC is in good shape. Clemson and Notre Dame still need to play each other, Oklahoma State has started playing the better teams in the Big 12 and Ohio State must still play Penn State and Michigan. An undefeated Cincinnati still has a chance at a playoff spot.

Cincinnati hopes that the playoff picture looks something like this:

Clemson (undefeated)
Big 10 winner (0 or 1 loss)
Alabama (0 or 1 loss)
Last playoff slot ...

Where:

Notre Dame has lost to Clemson (preferrably twice ... once in the ACC championship game)
The Big 12 winner has at least one loss, better yet two.
The Big 10 runner up has at least two losses.
The SEC East champion loses to Alabama and thus has at least two losses.

Bad for Cincinnati is:

Losing. A one loss AAC champion is unlikely to get a playoff spot.
The SEC East winning the SEC with only one loss and Alabama only losing in the SEC championship game (so only one loss for Alabama). In this scenario the SEC might send Alabama to the last playoff position.
Oklahoma State running the tables in the Big 12 or winning the Big 12 championship with only one loss. A one loss Big 12 champion probably gets the last playoff position over an AAC team.
The Big 10 runner up only losing in the Big 10 championship game. A one loss Big 10 runner up may get favored over an undefeated AAC champion.
Notre Dame and Clemson having only one loss each.

ACC

Clemson vs. Notre Dame is in two weeks.

Big 10

Michigan was suprisingly good and Penn State lost to Indiana (8-5 last season). The Big 10 champion is still likely to get a playoff spot. Penn State plays Ohio State this upcoming week. This is probably a must-win game for Penn State — in week two of the Big 10 season. Penn State can't afford to be two games down to Ohio State in the Big 10 East standings with only six games left and lose the head-to-head tie-breaker to Ohio State. A loss would put Penn State effectively three games behind Ohio State with only six games left to play.

Big 12

Oklahoma State still has to play Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas State. In theory, Kansas State still has hopes for a playoff spot. Kansas State has only one loss and a one loss Big 12 champion likely gets the last playoff slot.

Pac 12

It is very unlikely, but it is possible for Oregon, Utah and USC to all lose their opening week games. This would pretty much eliminate the Pac 12 from any playoff contention (to the extent that the Pac 12 isn't already eliminated ...). That would be an amusing opening week.

SEC

The only unranked SEC team with a winning record is Auburn (3-2; losses to Georgia and South Carolina). Auburn plays Alabama in a month.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent.

AAC (2 ranked teams)

ACC (2 ranked teams [plus Notre Dame])

Clemson vs. Notre Dame is next week.

Big 10 (4 ranked teams)

Michigan managed to lose to Michigan State and Penn State lost to Ohio State. Wisconsin's game vs. Nebraska was cancelled and next week's game vs. Purdue is at risk. Wisconsin needs to play at least six games to be eligible for the Big 10 championship.

Big 12 (4 ranked teams)

Oklahoma State lost and along with Kansas State's loss is now the only Big 12 team with fewer than two losses. A two loss team has not been the the six playoffs yet held. This is probably not the season for the first.

Oklahoma State still must play Oklahoma, Iowa State and Kansas State.

Pac 12 (2 ranked teams)

Play starts next week.

SEC (5 ranked teams)

We are back to all SEC teams with winning records being ranked in the top-25.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent.

AAC (2 ranked teams)

Notre Dame beating Clemson in double overtime was one of the worst possible outcomes for the AAC. Both Notre Dame and Clemson have a chance of going to the playoffs if Clemson beats Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game. With the Big 10 and SEC champions also going there would be no spot for Cincinnati.

ACC (2 ranked teams [plus Notre Dame])

Clemson, without Trevor Lawrence (17 TDs, 2 Ints, 70% pass completion), lost to Notre Dame in double overtime. If Clemson and Notre Dame meet for the ACC championship, the winner goes to the playoffs. If Clemson wins and Notre Dame is undefeated going into the game then Notre Dame might go, too. Clemson has already played (and beaten) Miami so Clemson wins a two-way tie-break against Miami for a chance to play in the ACC Championship game.

Big 10 (4 ranked teams)

Michigan is 1-2 and Penn State is 0-3. Indiana plays Ohio State in two weeks. If Wisconsin gets any more games cancelled they will not be eligible to play for the Big 10 championship. Wisconsin is scheduled to play Michigan next week.

Big 12 (4 ranked teams)

Oklahoma State still has a chance to go to the playoffs, but must win out and even then may be passed over in favor of a second SEC team or Clemson + Notre Dame.

Pac 12 (2 ranked teams)

Oregon and USC are both 1-0.

SEC (5 ranked teams)

The SEC has three teams in the top 6, but realistically only Florida and Alabama have a chance to make the playoffs. Texas A&M is ranked above Florida but needs Alabama to lose two games for Texas A&M to get to play in the SEC championship. Florida is the heavy SEC East favorite to play Alabama for the SEC championship.

BYU

BYU is ranked highly, but unlikely to move up much. The problem for BYU is that their schedule will have "only" ten games, no championship game and no games against teams finishing in the top-25 (Boise State and Houston are the best candidates). If Cincinnati loses, then BYU may get a New Year's Six bowl game, but it very unlikely to get a playoff berth.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent.

AAC (1 ranked team)

ACC (2 ranked teams [plus Notre Dame])

Big 10 (4 ranked teams)

Michigan is now 1-3 and Penn State is 0-4.
Indiana plays Ohio State next week.
Wisconsin plays Northwestern next week.

Big 12 (4 ranked teams)

Pac 12 (2 ranked teams)

Oregon and USC are both 2-0.

SEC (5 ranked teams)

BYU

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent.

AAC (1 ranked team)

Cincinnati keeps winning (as they must to have any hope of a playoff spot). The good news for Cincinnati is that the teams below them are unlikely to jump over them. Northwestern most likely must play Ohio State for the Big-10 championship, Georgia won't be in the SEC championship game and Miami is unlikely to be in the ACC championship game. Cincinnati should be in the AAC championship game.

ACC (2 ranked teams [plus Notre Dame])

If Clemson wins out they go. If they lose again to Notre Dame, they don't.
Notre Dame has a chance of going if their only loss is a close loss to Clemson in the ACC championship game.

Big 10 (4 ranked teams)

Michigan is now 2-3 and Penn State is 0-5.
Indiana has essentially been eliminated from the NCAA playoffs, but still might get a nice bowl game.
Wisconsin has essentially been eliminated from the NCAA playoffs.
If Northwestern wins out, then they go to the playoffs. If they lose to Ohio State in the championship they still might go to a nice bowl game.

Big 12 (4 ranked teams)

Oklahoma State losing means that the Big 12 has no teams with fewer than two losses.

Pac 12 (2 ranked teams)

Oregon and USC are now both 3-0. Oregon being ranked at #15 suggests that the playoff committee is unimpressed with Oregon's short season and strength of schedule.

SEC (5 ranked teams)

Alabama and Florida are still the two SEC teams with a realistic chance of a playoff spot.

BYU

BYU is ranked lower by the playoff committee than by the AP and is unlikely to move up much. The problem for BYU is that their schedule will have "only" ten games, no championship game and no games against teams finishing in the top-25 (Boise State and Houston are the best candidates). If Cincinnati loses, then BYU may get a New Year's Six bowl game, but it very unlikely to get a playoff berth.

Playoff Picture

Realistically, the teams that still have a chance to make the playoffs are Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Ohio State, Florida, Cincinnati, and Northwestern.

In theory, the Big-12 champion could go, but the playoff committee has never sent a two loss team to the playoffs.

In theory, a 7-0 Oregon could go, but the initial ranking of Oregon at #15 suggests the committee is unimpressed with the Pac-12 this season.

Teams that have a realistic chance to play in a conference championship are bolded.

Team	Record	Comment
Alabama	7-0
Notre Dame	8-0
Clemson	7-1	Clemson needs to win out. A two loss Clemson team that doesn't win the ACC championship is unlikely to get a playoff spot.
Ohio State	4-0
Texas A&M	5-1	Texas A&M's rank is deceiving (as was Alabama's about this time last year). Texas A&M needs two Alabama losses to make the SEC championship game.
Florida	6-1	Florida is very likely the SEC East entrant to the SEC championship game. It requires two losses in Florida's final three games against Kentucky (3-5), Tennessee (2-5) and LSU (3-3) for Florida to not win the SEC East.
Cincinnati	8-0
Northwestern	5-0	Northwestern is the Big-10 West entrant to the Big-10 championship game unless Northwestern loses two of their final three games against Michigan State (2-3), Minnesota (2-3) and Illinois (2-3).

Georgia	5-2
Miami (FL)	7-1	Miami needs to win out and needs another Clemson loss to get to the ACC championship game.
Oklahoma	6-2
Indiana	4-1
Iowa State	6-2
BYU	9-0	Doesn't have a championship game.
Oregon	3-0	Oregon's problems are a short season, no out-of-conference games and a weak Pac-12 conference. Oregon may finish 7-0 having played no teams ranked in the final top-25 rankings.
Wisconsin	2-1	Needs two Northwestern losses to get to the Big 10 championship game.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent.

AAC (1 ranked team)

ACC (2 ranked teams [plus Notre Dame])

Miami is still on the outside, looking in for the ACC champtionship game. Miami is effectively two games back of Notre Dame and also Clemson because Miami loses tie-break to Clemson.

Big 10 (5 ranked teams)

Michigan is now 2-4 and Penn State is 1-5.
Northwestern lost to Michigan State and so won't finish in the top-4.
Ohio State is at risk of missing the Big 10 championship game because of not playing enough regular season games.

The Big 10 is only going to send at most one team to the championship this year. If Ohio State misses one more game and is only 5-0 in the regular season — 6-0 after playoff weekend — will that be enough to make the top-4?

Big 12 (3 ranked teams)

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma for the Big 12 title is looking likely. With two losses it seems unlikely that either team will make the CFP top-4.

Pac 12 (3 ranked teams)

Oregon lost and USC did not play, so the top ranked Pac 12 team is USC at 3-0. Washington has also missed a game and is undefeated at 3-0, so the best the Pac 12 can hope for is a six win champion — 6-0 at best for USC or Washington and 6-1 from Oregon. The top ranked Pac 12 team isn't going to be in the top-4 of the final CFP ranking.

SEC (4 ranked teams)

Auburn lost to Alabama and fell out of the top-25.

Alabama and Florida are still the two SEC teams with a realistic chance of a playoff spot.

BYU

Playoff Picture

Realistically, the teams that still have a chance to make the playoffs are Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Ohio State, Florida, and Cincinnati. And maybe the Big 12 champion ... but probably not.

Teams that have a realistic chance to play in a conference championship are bolded.

Team	Record	Comment
Alabama	8-0
Notre Dame	9-0
Clemson	8-1	Clemson needs to win out. A two loss Clemson team that doesn't win the ACC championship is unlikely to get a playoff spot.
Ohio State	4-0	Two games not getting played has not helped Ohio State. One more unplayed game could hurt a lot.
Texas A&M	6-1	Texas A&M's rank is deceiving (as was Alabama's about this time last year). Texas A&M needs two Alabama losses to make the SEC championship game.
Florida	7-1	Florida is very likely the SEC East entrant to the SEC championship game.
Cincinnati	8-0	Needs to keep winning. And pray.

Georgia	6-2	Two losses and won't be playing for the SEC championship.
Iowa State	7-2	Iowa State is likely to play Oklahoma for the Big 12 championship. A win here could give Iowa State more of a boost than Cincinnati will get playing Tulsa or Memphis.
Miami (FL)	7-1	Unlikely to play for the ACC championship.
Oklahoma	6-2
Indiana	5-1	Indiana now has a chance to play for the Big 10 championship if Ohio State misses one more regular season game. It won't be enough to get them to the playoffs.
BYU	9-0	Doesn't have a championship game.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent.

Final CFP Rankings

Rank	Team		Top-25 Wins	All Losses
1	Alabama	11-0	#5 Texas A&M (8-1) #7 Florida (8-3) #9 Georgia (7-2)
2	Clemson	10-1	#4 Notre Dame (10-1) #18 Miami (FL)	#4 Notre Dame (10-1)
3	Ohio State	6-0	#11 Indiana (6-1) #14 Northwestern (6-2)
4	Notre Dame	10-1	#2 Clemson (10-1) #13 North Carolina (8-3)	#2 Clemson (10-1)
5	Texas A&M	8-1	#7 Florida (8-3)	#1 Alabama (11-0)
6	Oklahoma	8-2	#10 Iowa State	#10 Iowa State Kansas State (4-5)
7	Florida	8-3	#9 Georgia	#1 Alabama #5 Texas A&M LSU (5-5)
8	Cincinnati	9-0	#24 Tulsa
9	Georgia	7-2		#1 Alabama #7 Florida
10	Iowa State	8-3	#6 Oklahoma	#6 Oklahoma #19 Louisiana #21 Oklahoma State
11	Indiana	6-1		#3 Ohio State
12	Coastal Carolina	11-0	#16 BYU #19 Louisiana
13	North Carolina	8-3	#18 Miami #23 North Carolina State	#4 Notre Dame Virginia (5-5) Florida State (3-6)
14	Northwestern	6-2	#15 Iowa	#3 Ohio State Michigan State (2-5)
15	Iowa	6-2		#14 Northwestern Purdue (2-4)
16	BYU	10-1		#13 Coastal Carolina
17	USC	5-1		#25 Oregon
18	Miami (FL)	8-2	#23 North Carolina State	#2 Clemson #13 North Carolina
19	Louisiana	9-1		#12 Coastal Carolina
20	Texas	6-3		#6 Oklahoma #10 Iowa State TCU (6-4)
21	Oklahoma State	7-3	#23 Oklahoma State	#6 Oklahoma #20 Texas TCU (6-4)
22	San Jose State	7-0
23	North Carolina State	8-3		#13 North Carolina #18 Miami(FL) Virginia Tech (5-6)
24	Tulsa	6-2		#21 Oklahoma State #9 Cincinnati
25	Oregon	4-2	#17 USC	Oregon State (2-5) Berkeley(1-3)

"Only" four SEC teams finished ranked, but all are in the top 10. None of the teams below #9 Georgia seem obviously better than Georgia — either they have more or worse losses (Iowa State, North Carolina), a shorter schedule (Indiana) or a substantially weaker than SEC schedule (Coastal Carolina). Coastal Carolina is the only team with a realistic case to be ranked higher than Georgia and Florida.

Florida is the SEC ranking that is the most questionable. Florida does have a win against #9 Georgia and played Alabama close in the SEC championship game, but also has three losses and one of those to 5-5 LSU. I presume that LSU being the defending champion counted for something as did losing to Alabama by only six points when the next closest team lost by 15 and Texas A&M lost by 24.

It seems clear that Texas A&M would be the fourth playoff team if Notre Dame had played a full strength Clemson mid-season (because Notre Dame would have lost that game, also). Texas A&M might have been the fourth playoff team if they had beaten one more ranked team or played a few more games (Notre Dame played 11 games, A&M played 9) or played Alabama closer than getting blown out 52-24.

It is clear that Cincinnati's problem was that the highest ranked team they beat was #24 Tulsa. Every team ranked higher than Cincinnati has wins against teams ranked #13 or higher. Georgia, one spot below Cincinnati has no wins against ranked teams, but also losses only against teams in the top 10.

The biggest puzzle is 11-0 Coastal Carolina being ranked lower than 9-0 Cincinnati, even though Coastal Carolina has two wins against top 25 teams to Cincinnati's one win and two more wins total. For all the complaining about Cincinnati being penalized for not being in a Power 5 conference, Coastal Carolina was pretty clearly hurt by not being in the AAC! Even though SMU, Houston and UCF were unranked it seems clear that Cincinnati beating those teams helped in the rankings.

Finishing up a dumpster fire of a season, the Pac 12 champion is 4-2 Oregon, who came in 2nd in the Pac 12 Northern division. A unified view of the Pac 12 standings and bowl game situation looks something like this:

Rank	Team	Games	Record		Bowl Game
25	Oregon	6	4-2	Conference Champion	Fiesta Bowl
17	USC	6	5-1	Southern Champion	Opted out
	Washington	4	3-1	Northern Champion	Opted out
	Colorado	5	4-1		Alamo Bowl
	Stanford	6	4-2		Opted out
	Utah	5	3-2		Opted out
	Arizona State	4	2-2		Opted out
	UCLA	7	3-4		Opted out
	Oregon State	7	2-5		Pac 12 ineligible
	Washingon State	4	1-3		Opted out
	Berkeley	4	1-3		Pac 12 ineligible
	Arizona	5	0-5		Pac 12 ineligible

The Pac 12 decided that Pac 12 teams with losing records could not go to bowl games and most of the Pac 12 teams at or above 0.500 opted out.

So ... the Pac 12 champion did not even win its own division, the top ranked Pac 12 team has opted out of going to a bowl game as has most of the rest of the conference teams. The Pac 12 will thus be represented in bowl games by only two teams, both of whom are favored to lose their games.

NOTE: Although Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season, I'm still treating Notre Dame as independent.

Top Four Selection

It was pretty clear after the regular season (including the conference championships) that there were three legitimate playoff teams (Alabama, Clemson and maybe Ohio State) and no obvious fourth:

#4 Notre Dame was crushed by a fully healthy Clemson
#5 Texas A&M had already lost to Alabama by 24 points
#6 Oklahoma was 8-2 with a loss to Kansas State
#7 Florida was 8-3 and had already lost to Alabama and Texas A&M
#8 Cincinnati's best win was against #24 Tulsa
#9 Georgia had lost to #7 Florida and #1 Alabama

The CFP playoffs, however, require four teams so Notre Dame it was. Notre Dame, it turned out, wasn't much better than Texas A&M vs Alabama. And Ohio State crushed Clemson, putting to rest the complaints that at 6-0 they didn't have enough games to be a legitimate top-4.

Ranked vs. Unranked bowl games

Six ranked teams played unranked opponents in this year's bowl games. The ranked teams went 2-4 against their unranked opponents. Three of the unranked opponents were SEC teams with losing records. All three of these teams won.

Final		Pre
CFP		Bowl
Rank	Team	Record	Bowl Result
#11	Indiana	6-1	L	20-26	vs Mississippi (4-5)
#16	BYU	10-1	W	49-23	vs UCF (6-3)
#19	Louisiana	9-1	W	31-24	vs UTSA (7-4)
#22	San Jose State	7-0	L	13-34	vs Ball State (6-1)
#23	North Carolina		L	21-23	vs Kentucky (4-6)
#24	Tulsa	6-2	L	26-28	vs Mississippi State (3-7)

Conference Summaries

AAC (1-5 in bowl games)

Final		Pre
CFP		Bowl
Rank	Team	Record	Bowl Result
#8	Cincinnati	9-0	L	21-24	vs #9 Georgia
#24	Tulsa	6-2	L	26-28	vs Mississippi State (3-7)
	Memphis	7-2	W	25-10	vs Florida Atlantic (5-3)
	UCF	6-3	L	23-49	vs #16 BYU (10-1)
	Tulane	6-5	L	27-38	vs Nevada (6-2)
	Houston	3-4	L	14-28	vs Hawai'i (4-4)

ACC (0-5 in bowl games)

#23 North Carolina lost to unranked 4-6 Kentucky.

Final		Pre
CFP		Bowl
Rank	Team	Record	Bowl Result
#2	Clemson		L	28-55	vs #3 Ohio State
#13	North Carolina		L	27-41	vs #5 Texas A&M
#18	Miami		L	34-37	vs #21 Oklahoma State
#23	North Carolina		L	21-23	vs Kentucky (4-6)
	Wake Forest	4-4	L	28-42	vs Wisconsin (3-3)

Big 10 (3-1 in bowl games)

Final		Pre
CFP		Bowl
Rank	Team	Record	Bowl Result
#3	Ohio State	6-0	W	55-28	vs #2 Clemson
#11	Indiana	6-1	L	20-26	vs Mississippi (4-5)
#14	Northwestern	6-2	W	35-19	vs Auburn (4-4)
	Wisconsin	3-3	W	42-28	vs Wake Forest (4-4)

Big 12 (5-0 in bowl games)

Final		Pre
CFP		Bowl
Rank	Team	Record	Bowl Result
#6	Oklahoma	8-2	W	55-20	vs #7 Florida
#10	Iowa State	8-3	W	34-17	vs #25 Oregon
#21	Oklahoma State	7-3	W	37-34	vs #18 Miami
#20	Texas	6-3	W	55-23	vs Colorado (4-1)
	West Virgina	5-4	W	24-21	vs Army (9-2)

SEC (6-2 in bowl games)

Every SEC team that played in a bowl game faced a ranked (at the time of the bowl game) opponent. Three SEC teams entered the bowl game with losing records and all three won against their ranked opponents.

Final		Pre
CFP		Bowl
Rank	Team	Record	Bowl Result
#1	Alabama	11-0	W	31-14	vs #4 Notre Dame
#5	Texas A&M	8-1	W	41-27	vs #13 North Carolina
#7	Florida	8-3	L	20-55	vs #6 Oklahoma
#9	Georgia	7-2	W	24-21	vs #8 Cincinnati
	Auburn	6-4	L	19-35	vs #14 Northwestern
	Mississippi	4-5	W	26-20	vs #11 Indiana
	Kentucky	4-6	W	32-21	vs #23 North Carolina
	Mississippi State	3-7	W	28-26	vs #24 Tulsa

Of the remaining SEC teams, LSU (5-5) opted out of bowl consideration. Missouri (5-5), Arkansas (3-7), Tennessee (3-7) and South Carolina (2-8) accepted bowl invitations to bowls that were cancelled due to Covid-19 and Vanderbilt (0-8) was not offered an invitation to a bowl game.

The SEC can be expected to be inordinantly smug about this bowl season.

Pac-12 (0-2 in bowl games)

Well ... the Pac-12 season mercifully came to an end.

Final		Pre
CFP		Bowl
Rank	Team	Record	Bowl Result
#25	Oregon	4-2	L	17-34	vs #10 Iowa State
	Colorado	4-1	L	23-55	vs #20 Texas

Seven Pac-12 teams opted out of bowl consideration.

Week:

No games played yet.

Washington (#6, Pac12) played Auburn (#9, SEC) at Auburn and lost 21-16.
Notre Dame (#12, Ind) played Michigan (#14, B10) at South Bend and won 24-17.
Penn State (#10, B10) played Appalachian State (unranked) at home and barely won 45-38.

Conference Championship Games

(ACC)	Clemson	42-10	vs Pittsburg
(B10)	Ohio State	45-24	vs Northwestern
(B12)	Oklahoma	39-27	vs Texas
(PAC12)	Washington	10-3	vs Utah
(SEC)	Alabama	35-28	vs Georgia

Rank	Team	Conference	Record	Final Game	Bowl Game(s)
1	Clemson	(ACC)	15-0	W 44-16	vs Alabama, W 30-3 vs Notre Dame
2	Alabama	(SEC)	14-1	L 44-16	vs Clemson, W 45-34 vs Oklahoma
3	Ohio State	(B10)	13-1	W 28-23	vs Washington (Rose Bowl)
4	Oklahoma	(B12)	12-2	L 45-34	vs Alabama (Orange Bowl)
5	Notre Dame	(Ind)	12-1	L 30-3	vs Clemson (Cotton Bowl)
6	LSU	(SEC)	10-3	W 40-32	vs UCF (Fiesta Bowl)
7	Florida	(SEC)	10-3	W 41-15	vs Michigan (Peach Bowl)
8	Georgia	(SEC)	11-3	L 28-21	vs Texas (Sugar Bowl)
9	Texas	(B12)	10-4	W 28-21	vs Georgia (Sugar Bowl)
10	Washington State	(PAC12)	11-2	W 28-26	vs Iowa State (Alamo Bowl)
11	UCF	(Am)	12-1	L 40-32	vs LSU (Fiesta Bowl)
12	Kentucky	(SEC)	10-3	W 27-24	vs Penn State (Citrus Bowl)
13	Washington	(PAC12)	10-4	L 28-23	vs Ohio State (Rose Bowl)

Week:

SEC has five of the top nine teams.
Highest ranked Pac-12 team is #13 Oregon.

The ACC now has just one team in the top-25: Clemson.

Clemson (ACC) has played no teams currently ranked in the top-25 and is not scheduled to play any teams currently ranked in the top-25. Clemson's schedule:

Georgia Tech (ACC)	(1-5)	W 52-14
Texas A&M (SEC)	(3-3)	W 24-10
Syracuse (ACC)	(3-3)	W 41-6
Charlotte (CUSA)	(2-4)	W 52-10
North Carolina (ACC)	(3-3)	W 21-20
Florida State (ACC)	(3-3)	W 45-14
Louisville (ACC)	(4-2)
Boston College (ACC)	(3-3)
Wofford (FCS)	(3-2)
North Carolina State (ACC)	(4-2)
Wake Forest (ACC)	(5-1)
South Carolina (SEC)	(3-3)

The only team on this list that seem to have a reasonable chance of finishing in the top-25 while still losing to Clemson is Texas A&M — which still has to play Georgia and LSU. None of the teams (except maybe Wake Forest) remaining seem likely to finish in the top-25 with another loss.

An undefeated, defending national champion Clemson seems likely to finish in the top-4 and thus get a chance to defend its title. But that top-4 finish may be without defeating a single ranked opponent in the regular season. The conference championship might be against a team barely in the top-25.

Alabama is not as close to making the playoffs as it might appear.

The CFP committee is quite clear that they only take into account the season "up to that point" and Alabama's weakness is that the only quality game it has left is against Auburn. If 1-loss Oregon and Utah meet in the Pac-12 championship then the winner of that game almost certainly leaps over Alabama. For all practical purposes, Alabama is ranked 6th at best.

In addition, Oklahoma still plays Baylor and Oklahoma State and as things stand will also play in the Big-12 championship, probably against a ranked Baylor or ranked Texas team. If Oklahoma wins out then Oklahoma almost certainly leaps over Alabama. Also, if Baylor wins out (and thus is an undefeated Power-5 champion) then Baylor will leap over Alabama.

If Georgia beats LSU in the SEC championship, then LSU might still go to the playoffs (along with Georgia), but Alabama certainly won't.

Alabama needs both the Pac-12 champion to be a 2-loss team and the Big-12 champion to be a two loss team. And that still might not be enough to leap Alabama over a 2-loss Georgia!

So ... Alabama needs the following:

SEC: Alabama must win out. A 2-loss team that didn't even play in their conference champion will not finish in the top-4.
SEC: Then LSU must win out. The probably eliminates 2-loss Georgia. Probably.
Pac-12: The winner must have two losses. A 1-loss Oregon or Utah get a payoff bid over Alabama.
Big-12: Neither Oklahoma nor Baylor can win out. A 1-loss Oklahoma or a lossless Baylor go over Alabama. Even a 1-loss Baylor that wins the Big-12 championship almost certainly goes over Alabama.
Big-10: Minnesota must lose before the championship game. A 1-loss Minnesota with wins over Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin whose only loss to is to Ohio State in the Big-10 championship game should leapfrog Alabama.

In theory, either of the following helps Alabama:

Clemson losing. Clemson's schedule is even weaker than Alabama's. Still, a 1-loss Clemson probably has an edge over Alabama ... especially because Clemson is the defending champion. A 1-loss Clemson that wins the ACC gets in over Alabama.
Ohio State losing to Penn State and Penn State then going to the Big-10 championship should help Alabama. But probably not enough to matter.

LSU losing ends Alabama's playoff hopes.

Realistically, the teams that still have a chance to make the playoffs are the top 10. The only two that have a realistic, though poor, chance if they lose a game are LSU and Ohio State. Teams that can still play in a conference championship are bolded.

Team	Record	Comment
LSU	10-0
Ohio State	10-0
Clemson	10-0	Clemson may finish with no games against teams ranked top-25 in the final poll. A loss with that schedule is likely fatal.
Georgia	9-1	If Georgia wins out, they will be a 1-loss winner of the SEC. A second loss would be tough to recover from if the other Power-5 winners win out.
Alabama	9-1	Alabama's rank is deceiving because teams ranked below them have chances to pick up more (and likely better quality) wins than Alabama. Alabama won't be in the SEC championship game, has a loss and has a weak schedule. Lots of teams need to lose for Alabama to get the nod. An undefeated winner of Oregon vs. Utah likely jumps over Alabama. If Penn State wins out, Penn State likely jumps over Alabama (and Ohio State probably doesn't drop below Alabama if Ohio State only loses to Penn State). Oklahoma at 12-1 probably is ranked above Alabama. Possibly the same for Minnesota.
Oregon Utah	9-1 9-1	Oregon and Utah both needs to win out (though only one of them can ...). A 2-loss PAC-12 champion doesn't go to the playoffs, but winning out to go 12-1 is likely good enough. The major risk after winning out is LSU losing to Georgia in the SEC championship. This might send two SEC teams.
Penn State	9-1	If Penn State wins out (which means beating Ohio State *and* either Wisconsin or Minnesota), then they likely go. With another loss, they don't.
Oklahoma	9-1	Needs to win out and needs help.
Minnesota	9-1	Winning out might be good enough because Minnesota would then be a 1-loss Big-10 champion who beat Penn State, Wisconsin, and (likely) beat Ohio State.

Florida	9-2	Can't make SEC championship game.
Wisconsin	8-2	Beat Michigan. Lost to Ohio State and Illinois (6-4).
Michigan	8-2	Can't make Big-10 championship game.
Baylor	9-1
Auburn	7-3	Can't make SEC championship game.
Notre Dame	8-2	No championship game. Remaining schedule is Boston College (5-5) and Stanford (4-6)
Iowa	7-3	Can't make Big-10 championship game.

This week's CFP rankings are quite straightforward. The top three teams are the three undefeated Power 5 teams. These are followed by all six 10-1 Power 5 teams. Then we have all six 9-2 Power 5 plus Notre Dame teams, with 8-3 Auburn mixed in (#15 Auburn's losses are to #2 LSU, #4 Georgia and #11 Florida). After this we have a mix of 8-3 or worse Power 5 teams and 10-1 non-Power 5 teams.

Realistically, the teams that still have a chance to make the playoffs are the top eight or maybe nine. Penn State and Oregon losing has eliminated each of them from realistic playoff consideration, but Baylor might have a chance if they win out (Baylor moved up five spots in the rankings after beating Texas). The only two teams that have a realistic, though poor, chance at a playoff spot if they lose a game are LSU and Ohio State. Teams that can still play in a conference championship are bolded.

Team	Record	Comment
Ohio State	11-0
LSU	11-0
Clemson	11-0	Clemson may finish with no games against teams ranked top-25 in the final poll. A loss with that schedule is likely fatal.
Georgia	10-1	If Georgia wins out, they will be a 1-loss winner of the SEC. A second loss would be tough to recover from if the other Power-5 winners win out.
Alabama	10-1	Alabama's rank is deceiving because the four teams ranked below them have chances to pick up more (and likely better quality) wins than Alabama. Alabama won't be in the SEC championship game, has a loss and has a weak schedule. Lots of teams need to lose for Alabama to get the nod. A 12-1 Utah Pac-12 champion likely jumps over 11-1 Alabama, though at this point each team would have only one quality-ish win (Utah over Oregon and Alabama over Auburn, though Utah's loss to USC is worse than Alabama's loss to LSU). Oklahoma as a 12-1 Big-12 champion probably would be ranked above Alabama. Probably the same for a 12-1 Minnesota.
Utah	10-1	Utah needs to win out. A 2-loss PAC-12 champion doesn't go to the playoffs, but winning out to go 12-1 is probably good enough. Probably. A major risk after winning out is LSU losing to Georgia in the SEC championship. This might send two SEC teams.
Oklahoma	10-1	Needs to win out and probably needs help. Utah losing could be that help.
Minnesota	10-1	Winning out should be good enough because Minnesota would then be a 1-loss Big-10 champion who beat Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. Doing this will be tough, of course ...
Baylor	10-1	Needs to win out and probably needs help. Utah losing could be that help.

Penn State	9-2	Can't make the Big-10 championship game.
Florida	9-2	Can't make SEC championship game.
Wisconsin	9-2	Beat Michigan. Lost to Ohio State and Illinois (6-4).
Michigan	9-2	Can't make Big-10 championship game.
Oregon	9-2	A two loss Pac-12 team won't make the playoffs. Winning out would mean that Oregon goes to the Rose Bowl.
Auburn	8-3	Can't make SEC championship game.
Notre Dame	9-2	No championship game. Remaining schedule is Stanford (4-7)
Iowa	8-3	Can't make Big-10 championship game.

Playoff Picture

We are now down to seven teams with realistic chances to make the playoffs. Wisconsin has an outside chance but Wisconsin neads to beat Ohio State and Clemson must lose to Virginia. Then maybe, but still probably not.

Team	Record	Comment
Ohio State	12-0
LSU	12-0
Clemson	12-0	Clemson may finish with no games against teams ranked top-25 in the final poll. The ACC is stunningly bad this year (see below), and the two Power 5 teams Clemson scheduled didn't do very well (7-5 Texas A&M and 4-8 South Carolina). A loss with that schedule is likely fatal.
Georgia	11-1	If Georgia wins out, they will be a 1-loss winner of the SEC. A second loss would be tough to recover from unless Clemson loses and even this may well not be enough.
Utah	11-1	Utah needs to win out. A 2-loss PAC-12 champion doesn't go to the playoffs, but winning out to go 12-1 is probably good enough. Probably. A risk after winning out is LSU losing to Georgia in the SEC championship. This might send two SEC teams. A larger risk is that Utah beats Oregon, but the winner of the Oklahoma vs. Baylor game leapfrogs Utah in the final CFP rankings.
Oklahoma	11-1	Needs to win out and may need help. Utah losing could be that help.
Baylor	11-1	Needs to win out and probably needs help. As with Oklahoma, Utah losing could be that help.

Wisconsin	10-2	Wisconsin beat Michigan and Minnesota, but lost to Ohio State and Illinois (6-4). Gets another crack at Ohio State, but with two losses seems unlikely to finish in the top four. If both Utah and Clemson lose, then maybe Wisconsin sneaks in by beating Ohio State.
Florida	10-2
Penn State	10-2
Auburn	9-3
Alabama	10-2
Minnesota	10-2
Oregon	10-2	A two loss Pac-12 team won't make the playoffs, so Oregon isn't going. Beating Utah would mean that Oregon goes to the Rose Bowl.
Michigan	9-3
Notre Dame	10-2
Iowa	9-3

ACC

The ACC was stunningly bad this year. The teams in the conference have finished the regular season having lost all 12 out of conference games played against currently ranked teams. The conference as a whole has won four games against teams from the other Power 5 conferences (two wins against 4-8 South Carolina, one against 7-5 Texas A&M and one against 2-9 Rutgers). Meanwhile it has lost eight games to other Power 5 conference teams, lost an additional five games to Notre Dame, lost four games to non-Power 5 conference FBS teams and managed to lose a game to FCS Citadel.

		Out of Conference
ACC Team		Wins	Losses	vs. top-25
Clemson	12-0	Wofford (FCS) Texas A&M (7-5, SEC) Charlotte (CUSA) South Carolina (4-8, SEC)		0-0
Virginia	9-3	William & Mary (FCS) Old Dominon (CUSA) Liberty (Ind)	#15 Notre Dame (10-2, Ind)	0-1
Virginia Tech	8-4	Furman (FCS) Rhode Island (FCS) Old Dominion (CUSA)	#15 Notre Dame (10-2, Ind)	0-1
Wake Forest	8-4	Elon (FCS) Utah State (MWC) Rice (CUSA)		0-0
Louisville	7-5	East Kentucky (FCS) West Kentucky (CUSA)	#15 Notre Dame (10-2, Ind)	0-1
Pittsburgh	7-5	Delaware (FCS) UCF (AAC) Ohio (MidAm)	#10 Penn State (10-2, B10)	0-1
Florida State	6-6	Alabama State (FCS) LA Monroe (SBELT)	#9 Florida (10-2, SEC) #19 Boise State (11-1, MWC)	0-2
Boston College	6-6	Richmond (FCS) Rutgers (2-9, B10)	#15 Notre Dame (10-2, Ind) Kansas (3-8, B12)	0-1
Miami	6-6	Bethune-Cookman (FCS) Central Michigan (MidAm)	#9 Florida (10-2, SEC) Florida International (CUSA)	0-1
North Carolina	6-6	Mercer (FCS) South Carolina (4-8, SEC)	#21 Appalachia State (11-1, SBelt)	0-1
Syracuse	5-7	Holy Cross (FCS) Liberty (Ind) W. Michigan (MidAm)	Maryland (3-8, B10)	0-0
Duke	5-7	N.C. A&T (FCS) Middle Tennessee (CUSA)	#5 Alabama (10-2, SEC) #15 Notre Dame (10-2, Ind)	0-2
North Carolina State	4-8	West Carolina (FCS) East Carolina (AAC) Ball State (MidAm)	West Virginia (5-7, B12)	0-0
Georgia Tech	3-9	South Florida (AAC)	#4 Georgia (11-1, SEC) Citadel (FCS) Temple (AAC)	0-1

(Bolded teams are Power-5, Notre Dame or top-25 ranked)

SEC

The SEC's out-of-conference results are below. Alabama stands out by not playing any out-of-conference Power-5 teams, or Notre Dame or any ranked teams from outside the conference

		Out of Conference
SEC Team		Wins	Losses	vs. top-25
LSU	12-0	Northwestern State (FCS) Georgia Southern (SBelt) Texas (7-5, B12) Utah State (MWest)		0-0
Georgia	11-1	Murray State (FCS) Arkansas St (SBelt) #16 Notre Dame (10-2, Ind) Georgia Tech (3-9, ACC)		1-0
Florida	10-2	Tenn-Martin (FCS) Towson (FCS) Miami (6-6, ACC) Florida St (6-6, ACC)		0-0
Alabama	10-2	Western Carolina (FCS) New Mexico State (Ind) Southern Miss (CUSA)		0-0
Auburn	9-3	Samford (FCS) #13 Oregon (10-2, Pac12) Tulane (AAC) Kent State (MidAm)		1-0
Texas A&M	7-5	Lamar (FCS) UTSA (CUSA) Texas State (SBelt)	#3 Clemson (12-0, ACC)	0-1
Kentucky	7-5	Tenn-Martin (FCS) Toledo (MidAm) East Michigan (MidAm) Louisville (7-5, ACC)		0-0
Tennessee	7-5	Chattanooga (FCS) UAB (CUSA)	Georgia State (SBelt) BYU (Ind)	0-0
Mississippi State	6-6	Abilene Christian (FCS) LA Lafayette (SBelt) Southern Mississippi (CUSA)	Kansas State (8-4, B10)	0-0
Missouri	6-6	SE Missouri State (FCS) Troy (SBelt) West Virginia (5-7, B12)	Wyoming (MWest)	0-0
South Carolina	4-8	Charleston Southern (FCS)	North Carolina (6-6, ACC) #25 Appalachian State (11-1, SBelt) #3 Clemson (12-0, ACC)	0-2
Ole Miss	4-8	SE Louisiana (FCS)	#17 Memphis (11-1, AAC) California (7-5, P12) New Mexico State (Ind)	0-1
Vanderbilt	3-9	Eastern Tennessee (FCS) Northern Illinois (MidAm)	Purdue (4-8, B10) UNLV (MWest)	0-0
Arkansas	2-10	Portland State (FCS) Colorado State (MWest)	West Kentucky (CUSA) San Jose State (MWest)	0-0

Folks tend to like talking about how a given team either deserves to be ranked higher or is ranked too highly and deserves to be ranked lower. The interesting bit with stack ranking, however, is that you have to make these changes in pairs. If one team deserves to be ranked higher/lower then one or more other teams must deserve to be ranked lower/higher.

#12 Auburn (9-3) compared to #6 Oregon (11-2) is interesting. Florida and Baylor are another interesting pair to compare. See below for a discussion of each.

This list of the CFP top-25 with all their losses and their wins over end-of-year ranked opponents is intended to facilitate this sort of thinking. The list goes a bit beyond the CFP top-25, using the AP list (including the "others with votes"), to give a sense of the teams that didn't quite make the top-25. This can be useful when thinking about whether 9-4 Virginia deserves to be ranked #24 over, say, 10-2 Air Force or 10-2 SMU.

Keep in mind that the table doesn't have all the important information. The unranked teams played by one team might we much better than the unranked teams played by another. The margins of victory (or defeat) might be different. Etc.

Rank	Team		Top-25 Wins	All Losses
1	LSU	13-0	#5 Georgia (11-2) #9 Florida (10-2) #12 Auburn (9-3) #13 Alabama (10-2)
2	Ohio State	13-0	#8 Wisconsin (10-3) #8 Wisconsin (10-3) #10 Penn State (10-2) #14 Michigan (9-3) #21 Cincinnati (10-3)
3	Clemson	13-0	#24 Virginia (9-4
4	Oklahoma	12-1	#7 Baylor (11-2) #7 Baylor (11-2) #25 Oklahoma State (8-4)	Kansas State (8-4)
5	Georgia	11-2	#9 Florida (10-2) #12 Auburn (9-3) #15 Notre Dame (10-2)	#1 LSU (13-0) South Carolina (4-8)
6	Oregon	11-2	#11 Utah (11-2) #22 USC (8-4)	#12 Auburn (9-3) Arizona State (7-5)
7	Baylor	11-2	#25 Oklahoma State (8-4)	#4 Oklahoma (12-1) #4 Oklahoma (12-1)
8	Wisconsin	10-3	#14 Michigan (9-3) #16 Iowa (9-3) #18 Minnesota (10-2)	#2 Ohio State (13-0) #2 Ohio State (13-0) Illinois (6-6)
9	Florida	10-2	#12 Auburn (9-3)	#1 LSU (13-0) #5 Georgia (11-2)
10	Penn State	10-2	#14 Michigan (9-3) #16 Iowa (9-3)	#2 Ohio State (13-0) #18 Minnesota (10-2)
11	Utah	11-2		#6 Oregon (11-2) #22 USC (8-4)
12	Auburn	9-3	#6 Oregon (11-2) #13 Alabama (10-2)	#1 LSU(13-0) #5 Georgia (11-2) #9 Florida (10-2)
13	Alabama	10-2		#1 LSU (13-0) #12 Auburn (9-3)
14	Michigan	9-3	#15 Notre Dame (10-2) #16 Iowa (10-3)	#2 Ohio State (13-0) #8 Wisconsin (10-3) #10 Penn State (10-2)
15	Notre Dame	10-2	#22 USC (8-4) #23 Navy (9-2) #24 Virginia (9-4)	#5 Georgia (11-2) #14 Michigan (9-3)
16	Iowa	9-3	#18 Minnesota (10-2)	#8 Wisconsin (10-3) #10 Penn State (10-2) #14 Michigan (9-3)
17	Memphis	12-1	#21 Cincinnati (10-3) #21 Cincinnati (10-3) #23 Navy (9-2)	Temple (8-4)
18	Minnesota	10-2	#10 Penn State (10-2)	#8 Wisconsin (10-3) #16 Iowa (9-3)
19	Boise State	12-1		BYU (7-5)
20	Appalachian State	12-1
21	Cincinnati	10-3		#2 Ohio State (13-0) #17 Memphis (12-1) #17 Memphis (12-1)
22	USC	8-4	#11 Utah (11-2)	#6 Oregon (11-2) #15 Notre Dame (10-2) BYU (7-5)
23	Navy	9-2		#5 Notre Dame (10-2) #17 Memphis (12-1)
24	Virginia	9-4		#3 Clemson (13-0) #15 Notre Dame (10-2) Louisville (7-5) Miami (6-6)
25	Oklahoma State	8-4		#4 Oklahoma (12-1) #7 Baylor (11-2) Texas (7-5) Texas Tech (4-8)
	Air Force	10-2		#19 Boise State (12-1) #23 Navy (9-2)
	SMU	10-2		#17 Memphis (12-1) #23 Navy (9-2)
	Kansas State	8-4		#4 Oklahoma (12-1) #7 Baylor (11-2) #25 Oklahoma (8-4) Texas (7-5)
	Texas A&M	7-5		#1 LSU (13-0) #3 Clemson (13-0) #5 Georgia (11-2) #12 Auburn (9-3) #13 Alabama (10-2)
	Florida Atlantic	10-3		#2 Ohio State (13-0) UCF (9-3) Marshall (8-4)
	Iowa State	7-5		#4 Oklahoma (12-1) #7 Baylor (11-2) #16 Iowa (9-3) #12 Oklahoma State (8-4) Kansas State (8-4)

Some pairs that might make for interesting discussions:

#6 Oregon (11-2) compared to #12 Auburn (9-3)
Oregon has wins against #11 Utah and #22 USC and losses against #12 Auburn and unranked ASU.

Auburn has wins against #6 Oregon (!) and #13 Alabama and losses against #1 LSU, #5 Georgia, and #9 Florida.

So Auburn's wins are better and Auburn's losses are also better.

Oregon does have one extra win because Oregon played in the Pac-12 championship game.

Unfortunately for Auburn, they played three teams who ended the season ranked in the top-10 and lost all three games. This contributes to Auburn being worse than Oregon who played no teams ranked in the top-10, but still lost two games — one game Auburn and one to an unranked team.
#7 Baylor (11-2) compared to #9 Florida (10-2)
Baylor's losses are to #4 Oklahoma, twice. Florida has losses against #1 LSU and #5 Georgia. These seem fairly comparable.

Each team has one win against a ranked opponent: #25 Oklahoma State for Baylor and #12 Auburn for Florida.

Baylor does have one extra win because it played in the Big-12 championship game.
#5 Georgia (11-2) compared to #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
This seems pretty correct. Each team has losses to a top-4 team (two in the case of Wisconsin). Georgia's wins (against #9, #12 and #15) are slightly better than Wisconsin's wins (against #14, #16 and #18). They each have a loss to a not-very-good unranked team. Both being highly ranked (three wins against top-25 teams), but not in the top-4 seems right. Georgia being a few places higher than Wisconsin seems about right, too.
#24 Virginia (9-4)
#24 seems very highly ranked for a team with two losses against unranked teams and no wins against ranked teams. But if we think Virginia should be ranked lower, which team (or teams) below them should be ranked higher?

#25 Oklahoma State also has two losses against unranked teams and no wins against ranked teams. And Oklahoma State has one few win.

Air Force and SMU have similar losses against ranked teams (two each, just like Virginia and Oklahoma State) and no losses to unranked teams. But playing in the Mountain West and AAC conferences, the unranked teams they have beaten are probably slightly worse, on average, than those beaten by Virginia and Oklahoma State. Though one could make a reasonable argument that the AAC is stronger than the ACC once one eliminates #3 Clemson. Still, the losses by Virginia and Oklahoma State are to higher ranked teams than the losses by Air Force and SMU.

In any event, the difference between #24 and #28 is much smaller than the difference between #1 and #5 so we should expect this ordering to be less clear cut.

Final	Team		Bowl Games Denoted With (*)
Rank			Top-25 & Bowl Wins	All Losses
1	LSU	15-0	#2 Clemson (14-1) * #4 Georgia (12-2) #6 Florida (11-2) #7 Oklahoma (12-2) * #8 Alabama (11-2) #14 Auburn (9-4)
2	Clemson	14-1	#3 Ohio State (13-1) *	#1 LSU (15-0) *
3	Ohio State	13-1	#9 Penn State (11-2) #11 Wisconsin (10-4) #11 Wisconsin (10-4) #18 Michigan (9-4) #21 Cincinnati (11-3)	#2 Clemson (14-1) *
4	Georgia	12-2	#6 Florida (11-2) #12 Notre Dame (11-2) * #14 Auburn (9-4)	#1 LSU (15-0) South Carolina (4-8)
5	Oregon	12-2	#11 Wisconsin (10-4) * #16 Utah (11-2)	#14 Auburn (9-4) Arizona State (8-5)
6	Florida	11-2	#14 Auburn (9-4) Virginia (9-4) *	#1 LSU (15-0) #4 Georgia (11-2)
7	Oklahoma	12-2	#13 Baylor (11-3) #13 Baylor (11-3)	#1 LSU (15-0) * Kansas State (8-5)
8	Alabama	11-2	#18 Michigan (9-4) *	#1 LSU (15-0) #12 Auburn (9-4)
9	Penn State	11-2	#14 Michigan (9-4) #15 Iowa (10-3) #17 Memphis (12-2) *	#3 Ohio State (13-1) #10 Minnesota (11-2)
10	Minnesota	11-2	#9 Penn State (10-2) #14 Auburn (9-4) *	#11 Wisconsin (10-4) #15 Iowa (10-3)
11	Wisconsin	10-4	#10 Minnesota (11-2) #15 Iowa (10-3) #18 Michigan (9-4)	#3 Ohio State (13-1) #3 Ohio State (13-1) #5 Oregon (12-2) * Illinois (6-7)
12	Notre Dame	11-2	#20 Navy (9-2) Iowa State (7-6)*	#4 Georgia (11-2) #18 Michigan (9-3)
13	Baylor	11-3		#4 Georgia (12-2) * #7 Oklahoma (12-2) #7 Oklahoma (12-2)
14	Auburn	9-4	#5 Oregon (12-2) #8 Alabama (11-2)	#1 LSU(15-0) #4 Georgia (12-2) #6 Florida (11-2) #10 Minnesota (11-2) *
15	Iowa	10-3	#10 Minnesota (11-2) USC (9-4)*	#9 Penn State (11-2) #11 Wisconsin (10-4) #18 Michigan (9-4)
16	Utah	11-3		#5 Oregon (11-2) #25 Texas (8-5) * USC (9-4)
17	Memphis	12-2	#21 Cincinnati (11-3) #21 Cincinnati (11-3) #20 Navy (11-2)	#9 Penn State (11-2) * Temple (8-5)
18	Michigan	9-4	#15 Notre Dame (10-2) #16 Iowa (10-3)	#3 Ohio State (13-1) #8 Alabama (11-2)* #9 Penn State (11-2) #11 Wisconsin (10-4)
19	Appalachian State	13-1	UAB (9-5)*	Georgia Southern (7-6)
20	Navy	11-2	Kansas State (9-5)*	#12 Notre Dame (11-2) #17 Memphis (12-2)
21	Cincinnati	11-3	Boston College (6-7)*	#3 Ohio State (13-1) #17 Memphis (12-2) #17 Memphis (12-2)
22	Air Force	11-2	Washington State (6-7)*	#20 Navy (11-2) #23 Boise State (12-2)
23	Boise State	12-2		Washington State (8-5)* BYU (7-6)
24	UCF	10-3	Marshall (8-5)*	#21 Cincinnati (11-3) Pittsburgh (8-5) Tulsa (4-8)
25	Texas	8-5	#16 Utah (11-3)*	#1 LSU (15-0) #7 Oklahoma (12-2) #13 Baylor (11-3) Iowa State (7-6) TCU (5-7)
	USC	8-5	#11 Utah (11-2)	#5 Oregon (12-2) #12 Notre Dame (11-2) #15 Iowa (10-3)* Washington (8-5) BYU (7-6)
	Virginia	9-5		#2 Clemson (14-1) #6 Florida (11-2) * #12 Notre Dame (11-2) Louisville (8-5) Miami (6-7)
	Oklahoma State	8-5		#7 Oklahoma (12-2) #13 Baylor (11-3) Texas A&M (8-5)* Texas (8-5) Texas Tech (4-8)
	Texas A&M	8-5	Oklahoma State (8-5) *	#1 LSU (13-0) #3 Clemson (13-0) #5 Georgia (11-2) #12 Auburn (9-3) #13 Alabama (10-2)

#13 Baylor is the highest ranked team to have no wins (0-3) against teams in the top-25 in the final rankings. Baylor lost to #4 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and to #7 Oklahoma twice.
#14 Auburn, ranked just below Baylor, played SIX teams in the final top-10 (ranks of #1, #4, #5, #6, #8, and #10) and went 2-4, beating #5 Oregon and #8 Alabama (at Auburn). One can make a case for ranking Auburn above Baylor.