Salary Caps & League Parity

15-Mar-2019

Of the four major US professional sports — hockey, football, basketball and baseball — only baseball has no salary cap. Teams can spend as much as they like, though there is a luxury tax that makes it progressively extra expensive to spend money on player salaries above a given threshold.

It is also common to read calls for Major League Baseball to introduce a salary cap to make the game "more competitive." This is to give smaller market teams an even playing field against larger market teams such as the New York Yankees.

But, does success in baseball cluster more than in the other major sports?

Winning the league championship — World Series or Super Bowl or ... — is a pretty clear mark of success, but is also so selective that using it exclusively would lead to teams such as the early-90s Buffalo Bills, with four Super Bowl appearances in four years, being considered uncompetitive.

Making the playoffs is another mark of success, but has several problems: One approach would be to try to come up with a formula for "success" in a given year and then score teams based on this. A shorter and simpler approach is to decide that making the semi-finals (so four teams per season for any sport) is pretty good.

I'm going to tentatively decide that making the semi-finals is a pretty successful season and look at the last ten years of each sport.

Big-4 American Sports

Basketball (NBA)

Over the last ten seasons 17 teams out of 30 made the conference playoffs at least once. Five teams accounted for about ½ of the appearances.

Seven teams won at least one championship in those ten seasons.

Seasons

Season East West
2008-09 Cleveland Orlando Los Angeles Denver
2009-10 Boston Orlando Los Angeles Phoenix
2010-11 Miami Chicago Dallas Oklahoma City
2011-12 Miami Bostom San Antonio Oklahoma City
2012-13 Miami Indiana San Antonio Memphis
2013-14 Miami Indiana San Antonio Oklahoma City
2014-15 Cleveland Atlanta Golden StateHouston
2015-16 Cleveland Toronto Golden StateOklahoma City
2016-17 Cleveland Boston Golden StateSan Antonio
2017-18 Cleveland Boston Golden StateHouston
Champion in bold

Totals

1)Cleveland 5
2)Boston 4
3)Golden State 4
4)Miami 4
5)Oklahoma City 4
6)San Antonio 3
7)Denver 2
8)Houston 2
9)Indiana 2
10)Los Angeles 2
11)Orlando 2
12)Atlanta 1
13)Chicago 1
14)Dallas 1
15)Memphis 1
16)Phoenix 1
17)Toronto 1

Football (NFL)

20 teams out of 32 made the conference playoffs at least once.

8 teams won at least one Super Bowl.

Seasons

Season NFC AFC
2009-10 New Orleans Minnesota Indianapolis NY (Jets)
2010-11 Green Bay Chicago Pittsburg NY (Jets)
2011-12 NY (Giants) San Francisco New England Baltimore
2012-13 San Francisco Atlanta New England Baltimore
2013-14 Seattle San Francisco New England Denver
2014-15 Seattle Green Bay New England Indianapolis
2015-16 Carolina Arizona New England Denver
2016-17 Atlanta Green Bay New England Pittsburg
2017-18 Philadelphia Minnesota New England Jacksonville
2018-19 Los Angeles New Orleans New England Kansas City
Champion in bold

Totals

1) AFC New England 8
2) NFC Green Bay 3
3) NFC San Francisco 3
4) NFC New Orleans 2
5) NFC Minnesota 2
6) NFC Atlanta 2
7) NFC Seattle 2
8) AFC Indianapolis 2
9) AFC New York (Jets) 2
10) AFC Pittsburgh 2
11) AFC Baltimore 2
12) AFC Denver 2
13) NFC Chicago 1
14) NFC New York (Giants) 1
15) NFC Carolina 1
16) NFC Arizona 1
17) NFC Philadelphia 1
18) NFC Los Angeles (Rams)1
19) AFC Kansas City 1
20) AFC Jacksonville 1

Baseball (MLB)

17 teams out of 30 made it to the league championship series at least once:

Seven teams won at least one World Series.

Season National League American League
2009 Dodgers Phillies Yankees Angels
2010 Giants Phillies Rangers Yankees
2011 Brewers Cardinals Rangers Tigers
2012 Giants Cardinals Yankees Tigers
2013 Dodgers Cardinals Red Sox Tigers
2014 Giants Cardinals Royals Orioles
2015 Mets Cubs Royals Blue Jays
2016 Dodgers Cubs Indians Blue Jays
2017 Dodgers Cubs Yankees Astros
2018 Dodgers Brewers Red Sox Astros
Champion in bold
1)Dodgers 5
2)Cardinals 4
3)Yankees 4
4)Giants 3
5)Cubs 3
6)Tigers 3
7)Rangers 2
8)Red Sox 2
9)Royals 2
10)Blue Jays 2
11)Astros 2
12)Phillies 2
13)Brewers 2
14)Mets 1
15)Angels 1
16)Orioles 1
17)Indians 1

Hockey (NHL)

The NHL consisted of 30 teams until the 2017-18 season when the Las Vegas Golden Knights joined. Thinking of the league as averaging 30.1 teams over the ten years, 22 out of 30.1 teams have played in at least one conference finals.

Five won at least one Stanley Cup.

Season East West
2008-09 Penguins Hurricanes Red Wings Blackhawks
2009-10 Flyers Canadiens Blackhawks Sharks
2010-11 Bruins Lightning Canucks Sharks
2011-12 Devils Rangers Kings Coyotes
2012-13 Bruins Penguins Blackhawks Kings
2013-14 Rangers Canadiens Kings Blackhawks
2014-15 Lightning Rangers Blackhawks Ducks
2015-16 Penguins Lightning Sharks Blues
2016-17 Penguins Senators Predators Ducks
2017-18 Capitals Lightning Golden Knights Jets
Champion in bold
1)Blackhawks 5
2)Penguins 4
3)Lightning 4
4)Rangers 3
5)Sharks 3
6)Canadiens 2
7)Bruins 2
8)Kings 2
9)Ducks 2
10)Hurricanes 2
11)Flyers 2
12)Devils 2
13)Senators 2
14)Capitals 1
15)Red Wings 1
16)Canucks 1
17)Coyotes 1
18)Blues 1
19)Predators 1
20)Kings 1
21)Golden Knights 1
22)Jets 1

Gini Coefficients

Gini coefficients are often used to measure inequality. We can use them here to describe the inequality of conference finals appearances over ten years.
NBA
59%		 NFL
55%		 MLB
56%		 NHL
55%


Interestingly, the inequality appears fairly consistent across the four major sport. A summary of the four leagues looks like this:
LeagueSalary Cap Conference
Finalists		 Gini
Coefficient		 Champions
NBAYes17/30 59% 7
NFLYes20/32 55% 8
MLBNo 17/30 56% 7
NHLYes~22/3055% 5

Observation

The parity within the four leagues is fairly similar: About two thirds of the teams go to a conference championship game over a ten year period of time and the Gini distribution of appearances is quite similar.

It will be difficult to prove that a salary cap will create more parity in MLB than the current situation. The other leagues, which have salary caps of one sort or another, seem to have around the same parity (or lack thereof) that MLB baseball does.

European Soccer

European soccer leagues tend to have each team play every other team twice (once at home and once away) and to NOT have a playoff. There is no direct equivalent to an American sport league or conference and thus no direct equivalent to a league or conference championship. Instead, for soccer, I simply consider the top-4 teams each year.

European Soccer leagues have less parity than the American Big-4 sports, with the English Premier League and Spanish La Liga both showing an extreme lack of parity.

Premier League

The Premier League consists of 20 teams, with some relegation so that more than 20 teams will (technically) have had a chance to place in the top four over the last ten years. The results, however, are that only seven teams out of the twenty have made even one appearance in the top-4 over the last ten seasons. Three teams account for ½ of the top-4 finishes.

Seasons

Season 1 2 3 4
2008-09 Man U Liverpool Chelsea Arsenal
2009-10 Chelsea Man U Arsenal Tottenham
2010-11 Man U Chelsea Man City Arsenal
2011-12 Man City Man U Arsenal Tottenham
2012-13 Man U Man City Chelsea Arsenal
2013-14 Man City Liverpool Chelsea Arsenal
2014-15 Chelsea Man City Arsenal Man U
2015-16 Leicester City Arsenal Tottenham Man City
2016-17 Chelsea Tottenham Man City Liverpool
2017-18 Man City Man U Tottenham Liverpool

Totals

1) Manchester City 8
2) Arsenal 8
3) Chelsea 7
4) Manchester United 7
5) Tottenham Hotspur 5
6) Liverpool 4
7) Leicester City 1

Bundesliga (Germany)

The German soccer league, the Bundesliga, has 18 teams. Over the past 10 years, 12 teams have finished in the top-4, with 3 teams taking ½ of the top-4 places. This slightly understates the dominance of Bayern Munich, however. In those same 10 years, Bayern Munich has been the champion seven times.

Seasons

Season 1 2 3 4
2008-09 VfL Wolfsburg Bayern Munich VfB Stuttgart Hertha BSC
2009-10 Bayern Munich Schalke 04 Werder Bremen Bayer Lever.
2010-11 Borussia Dort. Bayer Lever. Bayern Munich Hannover 96
2011-12 Borussia Dort. Bayern Munich Schalke 04 Borussia Mönch.
2012-13 Bayern Munich Borussia Dort. Bayer Lever. Schalke 04
2013-14 Bayern Munich Borussia Dort. Schalke 04 Bayer Leverkusen
2014-15 Bayern Munich VfL Wolfsburg Borussia Mönch. Bayer Lever.
2015-16 Bayern Munich Borussia Dort. Bayer Lever. Borussia Mönch.
2016-17 Bayern Munich RB Leipzig Borussia Dort. 1899 Hoff.
2017-18 Bayern Munich Schalke 04 1899 Hoff. Borussia Dort.

Totals

1) Bayern Munich 10
2) Borussia Dortmund 7
3) Bayer Leverkusen 6
4) Schalke 04 5
5) Borussia Mönchengladbach 3
6) 1899 Hoffenheim 2
7) VfL Wolfsburg 2
8) RB Leipzig 1
9) Hannover 96 1
10) VfB Stuttgart 1
11) Hertha BSC 1
12) Werder Bremen 1

La Liga (Spain)

La Liga has twenty teams, of which nine have placed as high as fourth. Barcelona and Real Madrid have finished in the top-4 each of the past ten seasons. Barcelona or Real Madrid have been champion each of the past ten seasons, except for 2013-14 when Atlético Madrid triumphed.

Seasons

Season 1 2 3 4
2008-09 Barcelona Real Madrid Sevilla Atlético Madrid
2009-10 Barcelona Real Madrid Valencia Sevilla
2010-11 Barcelona Real Madrid Valencia Villarreal
2011-12 Real Madrid Barcelona Valencia Málaga
2012-13 Barcelona Real Madrid Atlético Madrid Real Sociedad
2013-14 Atlético Madrid Barcelona Real Madrid Athletic Bilbao
2014-15 Barcelona Real Madrid Atlético Madrid Valencia
2015-16 Barcelona Real Madrid Atlético Madrid Villarreal
2016-17 Real Madrid Barcelona Atlético Madrid Sevilla
2017-18 Barcelona Atlético Madrid Real Madrid Valencia

Totals

1) Barcelona 10
2) Real Madrid 10
3) Atlético Madrid 7
4) Valencia 5
5) Sevilla 3
6) Villarreal 2
7) Athletic Bilbao 1
8) Real Sociedad 1
9) Málaga 1

Serie A (Italy)

Twenty teams, with Juventus being clearly dominant. Three teams account for ½ of the top-4 finishes.

Seasons

Season 1 2 3 4
2008-09 Internazionale Juventus Milan Fiorentina
2009-10 Internazionale Roma Milan Sampdoria
2010-11 Milan Internazionale Napoli Udinese
2011-12 Juventus Milan Udinese Lazio
2012-13 Juventus Napoli Milan Fiorentina
2013-14 Juventus Roma Napoli Fiorentina
2014-15 Juventus Roma Lazio Fiorentina
2015-16 Juventus Napoli Roma Internazionale
2016-17 Juventus Roma Napoli Atalanta
2017-18 Juventus Napoli Roma Internazionale

Totals

1) Juventus 8
2) Napoli 6
3) Roma 6
4) Internazionale 5
5) Milan 5
6) Fiorentina 4
7) Udinese 2
8) Lazio 2
9) Sampdoria 1
10) Atalanta 1

Soccer Gini

Premier League
69%		 Bundesliga
60%		 La Liga
71%		 Serie A
63%
Updating our table to include soccer leagues:
LeagueSalary CapPlayoffs Conference
Finalists		 Gini
Coefficient		 Champions
NBA Yes Yes17/30 59% 7
NFL Yes Yes20/32 55% 8
MLB No Yes17/30 56% 7
NHL Yes Yes~22/3055% 5
Premier No No 7/20 69% 4
Bundesliga No No 12/18 60% 3
La Liga No No 9/20 71% 3
Serie A No No 10/20 63% 3


Observation

The parity within soccer leagues is substantially less than that seen in the four major US professional sports leagues. In fact, the dominance suggests that Europeans soccer fans cheer on their teams hoping for something other than just winning the championship.

In the English premier league, as an example, only seven out of twenty teams have finished in the top-4 over the past decade. Leicester City's appearance was a clear fluke, so realistically only six teams out of twenty have had any hope at all over the past ten seasons. The fans for other teams aren't starting each season hoping that their team will win the championship, or even build towards a future season where their team might win the championship. For the other teams, coming in 5th overall is about as good as things get.

The German Bundesliga shows something similar, with Bayern Munich having won the league the past six years and in seven of the last ten seasons. And in 27 of the past 55 seasons. This is much like the dominant New York Yankees teams of the 1950s, except that the dominance has held up for ½ a century.

La Liga is pretty much Barcelona and Madrid and a rotating cast of teams with little realistic hope of being champion.

A few possibilities to consider: And a few speculations: These possibilities suggest that professional European soccer may be more similar to American college football (and other college sports) than to the major American professional sports.

American College Sports

Football

American D-1 college football has 130 teams (now). Treating the 'Big 6' bowl games as success, along with playing in the BCS Championship for the years that it existed, we have 46 out of the 130, so about ⅓, having at least one successful season. The championship has been won by five teams in the last ten years. All five teams are ranked in the top 9 (our of 130) for successful seasons.

Seasons

Bowl Games

Season Rose Sugar Orange Cotton Peach Fiesta
2009-10 Oregon Florida Iowa Ole Miss VA Tech Boise St.
Ohio St. Cincinnati GA Tech OK St. Tennessee TCU
2010-11 TCU Ohio St. Stanford LSU Florida St. Oklahoma
Wisconsin Arkansas VA Tech Texas A&MS. Carolina Connecticut
2011-12 Oregon Michigan West VA Arkansas Auburn OK St.
Wisconsin VA Tech Clemson Kansas St. Virginia Stanford
2012-13 Stanford Louisville Florida St. Texas A&MClemson Oregon
Wisconsin Florida Northern Ill. Oklahoma LSU Kansas St.
2013-14 Stanford Oklahoma Clemson Missouri Texas A&M UCF
Mich St. Alabama Ohio St. OK St. Duke Baylor
2014-15 Oregon Ohio St. GA Tech Mich. St. TCU Boise St.
Florida St. Alabama Miss. St. Baylor Ole Miss Arizona
2015-16 Stanford Ole Miss Clemson Alabama Houston Ohio St.
Iowa OK St. Oklahoma Mich St. Florida St. Notre Dame
2016-17 USC Oklahoma Florida St. Wisconsin Alabama Clemson
Penn St. Auburn Michigan W. Michigan Washington Ohio St.
2017-18 Oklahoma Alabama Wisconsin Ohio St. UCF Penn St.
Georgia Clemson Miami (Fl) USC Auburn Washington
2018-19 Washington Texas Alabama Clemson Florida LSU
Ohio St. Georgia Oklahoma Notre Dame Michigan UCF

BCS Championship

2009-10 Alabama Texas
2010-11 Auburn Oregon
2011-12 Alabama LSU
2012-13 Alabama Notre Dame
2013-14 Florida St. Auburn
Champion in bold

Totals

1) Alabama 9 SEC
2) Ohio St. 8 B10
3) Clemson 7 ACC
4) Oklahoma 7 B12
5) Florida St. 6 ACC
6) Stanford 5 P12
7) Oregon 5 P12
8) Auburn 5 SEC
9) Wisconsin 5 B10
10) LSU 4 SEC
11) OK St. 4 B12
12) Ole Miss 3 SEC
13) VA Tech 3 ACC
14) TCU 3 B12 (1), MWest (2)
15) Texas A&M 3 SEC (2), B12(1)
16) Michigan 3 B10
17) UCF 3 non-P5
18) Washington 3 P12
19) Notre Dame 3 Ind
20) Mich. St. 3 B10
21) Florida 3 SEC
22) Iowa 2 B10
23) GA Tech 2 ACC
24) Arkansas 2 SEC
25) Kansas St. 2 B12
26) USC 2 P12
27) Penn St. 2 B10
28) Boise St. 2 non-P5
29) Baylor 2 B12
30) Texas 2 B12
31) Georgia 2 SEC
32) Cincinnati 1 non-P5
33) Tennessee 1 SEC
34) Virginia 1 ACC
35) Louisville 1 Big East
36) S. Carolina 1 SEC
37) Connecticut 1 non-P5
38) W. Michigan 1 non-P5
39) Northern Ill. 1 non-P5
40) Missouri 1 SEC
41) Duke 1 ACC
42) Arizona 1 P12
43) Houston 1 non-P5
44) Miami (Fl) 1 ACC
45) Miss. St. 1 SEC
46) West VA 1 Big East
NCAAF
77%

Observation

NCAA football success is even less evenly allocated than success in European soccer.

Possibly, this is partially because NCAA football has no draft.

Some of this is also an artifact of a number of the bowl game slots being guaranteed to a specific Power 5 conference.