Baltimore Homicides Post Freddie Gray

Last Updated: 5-May-2022

This analysis started in late 2015 when I started looking into the surge in Baltimore homicides following Freddie Gray's death. I knew that there had been an upsurge after Freddie Gray died, but wanted to know if the upsurge (a) was clearly a 'real thing' as opposed to an unusual statistical blip, and (b) if the upsurge was real whether it was a new average or would soon return to 'normal'.

Prior to Freddie Gray dying in police custody, the homicide rate in Baltimore had been stable for over half a decade at around 220 homicides per year:

YearTotal
Homicides		 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007282 28 17 26 20 36 31 29 25 22 20 16 12
2008234 14 14 25 10 21 26 19 22 13 22 28 20
2009240 21 15 17 21 20 21 16 17 23 18 26 25
2010224 12 12 16 16 23 20 24 23 16 23 19 20
2011197 15 10 19 27 15 16 24 13 19 17 10 12
2012217 11 11 19 20 26 16 17 20 26 16 20 15
2013235 14 15 20 20 19 27 22 16 23 19 21 19
2014221 27 10 7 12 23 18 22 26 18 20 13 15
Avg222.6 17.8 13.0 18.6 18.3 22.9 21.9 21.6 20.3 20.0 19.4 19.1 17.3
Std Dev15.3 6.7 2.6 5.9 5.4 6.2 5.5 4.2 4.6 4.3 2.4 6.1 4.5
Data from: Baltimore Sun

And except for 2007, which had a very high homicide rate compared to the years 2008-2014, the monthly homicide rates tended to vary randomly around the average homicide rate for that month. This chart shows the monthly variation nicely.



Freddie Gray died in April 2015 while in police custody. The homicide rate for May 2015 exploded to 42 from the 2007-2014 May average of 22.9. The surge was not a single month event. The monthly homicide rate in Baltimore has been above the 2007-2014 average in almost every month since Freddie Gray died.

YearTotal
Homicides		 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015342 22 13 15 22 42 29 45 34 27 33 27 33
2016318 14 24 18 28 26 27 36 26 31 30 30 28
2017342 32 22 25 29 38 24 34 31 31 30 24 22
2018309 26 15 17 33 19 23 30 30 35 34 19 28
2019348 26 19 25 22 32 34 38 31 29 29 28 35
2020335 26 24 18 20 39 35 31 22 32 31 23 34
2021338 27 16 29 28 38 28 30 30 31 26 28 27
2022 38 19 24 31

And the cumulative 'excess' homicides beginning in May 2015 is over 700 with the rate showing no signs of decreasing. Baltimore is now experiencing approximately 100 'excess' homicides per year above the 2007-2014 average.